Financial stability risk index
Expert-weighted Mazziotta-Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0-10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
mazziotta pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
7 components
28 leaf indicators
71% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
A strong capital ratio does not offset a large FX mismatch or credit boom; the penalised aggregate keeps one weak pillar visible. Sub-indices are always shown beside the index.
- Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assetsIndicator · IND · %Total regulatory capital of the deposit-taking sector as a percentage of its risk-weighted assets, on the national implementation of the Basel framework.
- Capital to total assets (leverage)Indicator · IND · %Tier 1 capital of deposit takers as a percentage of total (unweighted) assets.
- Non-performing loans net of provisions to capitalIndicator · IND · %Non-performing loans of deposit takers minus specific loan-loss provisions, as a percentage of capital.
- Return on assetsIndicator · IND · %Net income before extraordinary items and taxes of deposit takers as a percentage of average total assets.
- Non-performing loans to total gross loansIndicator · IND · %Loans of deposit takers more than 90 days past due or otherwise impaired, as a percentage of total gross loans.
- Provisions to non-performing loansIndicator · IND · %Specific loan-loss provisions of deposit takers as a percentage of non-performing loans.
- Loan concentration by economic activityIndicator · IND · %Share of deposit takers' loans to resident non-financial corporations held in the two largest economic activities (ISIC sections).
- Bank claims on general government, share of bank assetsIndicator · IND · %Deposit takers' holdings of general government debt securities and loans to general government as a percentage of their total assets.
- Liquid assets to total assetsIndicator · IND · %Core liquid assets of deposit takers (cash, central-bank reserves, short-term marketable securities) as a percentage of total assets.
- Liquid assets to short-term liabilitiesIndicator · IND · %Core liquid assets of deposit takers as a percentage of liabilities with residual maturity of one year or less.
- Customer deposits to total non-interbank loansIndicator · IND · %Customer (non-interbank) deposits of deposit takers as a percentage of their non-interbank loans.
- Liquidity coverage ratioIndicator · IND · %High-quality liquid assets of deposit takers as a percentage of total net cash outflows over a 30-day stress period, Basel III definition.
- Net open foreign-exchange position to capital (absolute)Indicator · IND · %Absolute value of deposit takers' net open position in foreign currencies (long or short, including off-balance-sheet) as a percentage of capital.
- Foreign-currency loans, share of total loans (credit dollarisation)Indicator · IND · %Loans of deposit takers denominated in or indexed to foreign currency as a percentage of total loans.
- Foreign-currency deposits, share of total deposits (deposit dollarisation)Indicator · IND · %Deposits held with deposit takers in foreign currency as a percentage of total deposits.
- Credit-to-GDP gap (BIS)Indicator · IND · %Deviation of the ratio of total credit to the private non-financial sector to GDP from its long-run trend (one-sided HP filter, lambda 400 000), in percentage points, quarterly.
- Real growth of credit to the private sectorIndicator · IND · %Year-on-year growth of deposit takers' credit to the private sector, deflated by consumer prices.
- Household debt, share of GDPIndicator · IND · %Debt of households and non-profit institutions serving households (loans and debt securities) as a percentage of GDP.
- Non-financial corporate debt, share of GDPIndicator · IND · %Debt of non-financial corporations (loans and debt securities) as a percentage of GDP.
- Real residential property price growthIndicator · IND · %Year-on-year change in the residential property price index deflated by consumer prices.
- House price-to-income ratio, deviation from long-run averageIndicator · IND · %Ratio of nominal house prices to nominal disposable income per head, as a percentage deviation from its own long-run average.
- Bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectorsIndicator · IND · %Share of deposit takers' loans to non-financial corporations extended to carbon-intensive activities (fossil-fuel extraction, refining, fossil power, cement, steel, chemicals, aviation and shipping), NACE-mapped.
- Bank lending exposed to high physical climate riskIndicator · IND · %Share of deposit takers' loans whose borrower operations or collateral lie in locations of high modelled physical climate hazard (Hazard Standard flood, storm, heat, wildfire, coastal), current climate.
- Natural-catastrophe protection gapIndicator · IND · %Share of economic losses from natural catastrophes not covered by insurance, ten-year rolling average.
- Volatility of real GDP growth (10-year)Indicator · IND · %Standard deviation of annual real GDP growth over the latest ten years with data.
- Consumer price inflationIndicator · IND · %Annual percentage change in the consumer price index, period average.
- Exchange-rate volatility (36-month)Indicator · IND · %Standard deviation of month-on-month log changes of the local-currency per US dollar rate over 36 months, annualised.
- Unemployment rateIndicator · IND · %Share of the labour force without work but available for and seeking employment (ILO definition).
- Banking-sector solvency sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 22.2%Composite of regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets, capital to assets, unprovisioned NPLs to capital and return on assets.
- Asset-quality stress sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 16.7%Composite of the NPL ratio, provision coverage, sectoral loan concentration and bank exposure to the sovereign.
- Funding and liquidity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 16.7%Composite of liquid assets to total assets, liquid assets to short-term liabilities, deposits to loans and the liquidity coverage ratio.
- Foreign-exchange mismatch sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 16.7%Composite of the absolute net open FX position to capital and credit and deposit dollarisation.
- Credit and asset-price imbalance sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 16.7%Composite of the BIS credit-to-GDP gap, real private-credit growth, household and corporate debt, and real house-price growth and overvaluation.
- Climate-related financial exposure sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 5.6%Composite of bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectors, lending exposed to high physical climate risk and the natural-catastrophe protection gap.
- Macroeconomic instability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 5.6%Composite of growth volatility, inflation, exchange-rate volatility and unemployment.
- Financial stability risk indexDomain index · IDX · mazziotta paretoExpert-weighted Mazziotta-Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0-10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
- Macro-financial and structural fragilityPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- NXS-GRX Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index's own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component's contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- NONE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 71% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- expert
- Aggregation
- mazziotta pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Uncertainty
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; Mazziotta-Pareto index (2016); IMF FSI Compilation Guide (2019)
7 components, 28 indicators
Banking-sector solvency sub-index w 2
Composite of regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets, capital to assets, unprovisioned NPLs to capital and return on assets.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwa | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-supervisor | 25.0% |
| Capital to total assets (leverage)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assets | % | Class A | imf-fsi, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
| Non-performing loans net of provisions to capitalIND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capital | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-supervisor | 25.0% |
| Return on assetsIND.FIN.earnings.roa | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-supervisor | 25.0% |
Asset-quality stress sub-index w 1.5
Composite of the NPL ratio, provision coverage, sectoral loan concentration and bank exposure to the sovereign.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-performing loans to total gross loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratio | % | Class A | imf-fsi, wb-wdi, national-supervisor | 37.5% |
| Provisions to non-performing loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_npl | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-supervisor | 25.0% |
| Loan concentration by economic activityIND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentration | % | Class A | imf-fsi | 18.8% |
| Bank claims on general government, share of bank assetsIND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposure | % | Class A | imf-mfs, national-central-bank | 18.8% |
Funding and liquidity sub-index w 1.5
Composite of liquid assets to total assets, liquid assets to short-term liabilities, deposits to loans and the liquidity coverage ratio.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquid assets to total assetsIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_total | % | Class A | imf-fsi, wb-wdi | 28.6% |
| Liquid assets to short-term liabilitiesIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilities | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-supervisor | 28.6% |
| Customer deposits to total non-interbank loansIND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loans | % | Class A | imf-fsi | 28.6% |
| Liquidity coverage ratioIND.FIN.liquidity.lcr | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-supervisor | 14.3% |
Foreign-exchange mismatch sub-index w 1.5
Composite of the absolute net open FX position to capital and credit and deposit dollarisation.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net open foreign-exchange position to capital (absolute)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capital | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-supervisor | 33.3% |
| Foreign-currency loans, share of total loans (credit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_share | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-central-bank | 33.3% |
| Foreign-currency deposits, share of total deposits (deposit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_share | % | Class A | imf-mfs, national-central-bank, imf-fsi | 33.3% |
Credit and asset-price imbalance sub-index w 1.5
Composite of the BIS credit-to-GDP gap, real private-credit growth, household and corporate debt, and real house-price growth and overvaluation.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit-to-GDP gap (BIS)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gap | % | Class B | bis-credit-gap | 25.0% |
| Real growth of credit to the private sectorIND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growth | % | Class A | imf-mfs, imf-fsi | 16.7% |
| Household debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp | % | Class A | bis-credit, imf-gdd, imf-fsi | 16.7% |
| Non-financial corporate debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdp | % | Class A | bis-credit, imf-gdd, imf-fsi | 16.7% |
| Real residential property price growthIND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growth | % | Class B | bis-rpp, oecd-house-prices, imf-fsi | 12.5% |
| House price-to-income ratio, deviation from long-run averageIND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gap | % | Class B | oecd-house-prices, derived:bis-rpp | 12.5% |
Climate-related financial exposure sub-index w 0.5
Composite of bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectors, lending exposed to high physical climate risk and the natural-catastrophe protection gap.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectorsIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure | % | Class D | derived:national-supervisor-credit-register, ngfs-scenarios, bcbs-climate-disclosure-2025 | 33.3% |
| Bank lending exposed to high physical climate riskIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending | % | Class E | derived:nhs-1-hazard-layers, national-supervisor-credit-register, bcbs-climate-disclosure-2025 | 33.3% |
| Natural-catastrophe protection gapIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap | % | Class C | swiss-re-sigma:licensed, munich-re-natcat:licensed, emdat, eiopa-protection-gap | 33.3% |
Macroeconomic instability sub-index w 0.5
Composite of growth volatility, inflation, exchange-rate volatility and unemployment.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility of real GDP growth (10-year)IND.MAC.output.growth_volatility | % | Class A | derived:nis:IND.MAC.output.real_gdp_growth | 25.0% |
| Consumer price inflationIND.MAC.prices.cpi_inflation | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-cpi | 25.0% |
| Exchange-rate volatility (36-month)IND.MAC.monetary.exchange_rate_volatility | % | Class A | derived:imf-ifs-exchange-rates | 25.0% |
| Unemployment rateIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate | % | Class C | ilo-ilostat, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Financial system
Soundness, depth and vulnerabilities of banks, non-banks, households, corporates and markets, including climate-related financial risk.
| Sub-domain | Indicators |
|---|---|
| Capital adequacy | 5 |
| Asset quality | 4 |
| Earnings | 2 |
| Liquidity and funding | 5 |
| Foreign-exchange risk | 3 |
| Financial depth and inclusion | 6 |
| Real estate | 2 |
| Non-bank financial intermediation | 3 |
| Climate-related financial exposure | 2 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IMF FSI 2019 guide; BCBS climate disclosure 2025; NGFS scenarios.
All 32 financial system indicators
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwa | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKRC_PT |
| Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.tier1_rwa | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKRTC_PT |
| Common Equity Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.cet1_rwa | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCET_PT |
| Capital to total assets (leverage)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assets | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKA_PT WB_WDI FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS |
| Non-performing loans net of provisions to capitalIND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capital | FIN | Capital adequacy | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKNL_PT |
| Non-performing loans to total gross loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratio | FIN | Asset quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSANL_PT WB_WDI FB.AST.NPER.ZS |
| Provisions to non-performing loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_npl | FIN | Asset quality | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSPN_PT |
| Loan concentration by economic activityIND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentration | FIN | Asset quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCLE_PT |
| Bank claims on general government, share of bank assetsIND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposure | FIN | Asset quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSASDG_PT |
| Return on assetsIND.FIN.earnings.roa | FIN | Earnings | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSERA_PT |
| Return on equityIND.FIN.earnings.roe | FIN | Earnings | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSERE_PT |
| Liquid assets to total assetsIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_total | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSLT_PT WB_WDI FD.RES.LIQU.AS.ZS |
| Liquid assets to short-term liabilitiesIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilities | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSLS_PT |
| Liquidity coverage ratioIND.FIN.liquidity.lcr | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSLCR_PT |
| Net stable funding ratioIND.FIN.liquidity.nsfr | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSNSF_PT |
| Customer deposits to total non-interbank loansIND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loans | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCD_PT |
| Net open foreign-exchange position to capital (absolute)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capital | FIN | Foreign-exchange risk | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSSNO_PT |
| Foreign-currency loans, share of total loans (credit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_share | FIN | Foreign-exchange risk | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSFC_PT |
| Foreign-currency deposits, share of total deposits (deposit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_share | FIN | Foreign-exchange risk | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSFCD_PT |
| Domestic credit to the private sector, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.private_credit.gdp | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | context | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS WB_WDI GFDD.DI.14 |
| Credit-to-GDP gap (BIS)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gap | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Real growth of credit to the private sectorIND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growth | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCGPS_PT |
| Household debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSHG_PT |
| Non-financial corporate debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdp | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSTDGDP_PT |
| Account ownership, adultsIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2 |
| Real residential property price growthIND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growth | FIN | Real estate | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSREPRR_PC_CP_A_PT |
| House price-to-income ratio, deviation from long-run averageIND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gap | FIN | Real estate | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, CITY | |
| Assets of other financial corporations, share of GDPIND.FIN.nbfi.ofc_assets.gdp | FIN | Non-bank financial intermediation | context | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSFAG_PT |
| Insurance penetration (premiums to GDP)IND.FIN.nbfi.insurance_penetration | FIN | Non-bank financial intermediation | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI GFDD.DI.09 WB_WDI GFDD.DI.10 |
| Natural-catastrophe protection gapIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap | FIN | Non-bank financial intermediation | vulnerability | % | REGION, COUNTRY | |
| Bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectorsIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure | FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Bank lending exposed to high physical climate riskIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending | FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY |
Financial stability risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Previous edition
- —
- Range since 2016
- —
- Coupled composite
- —
- Coupling score S
- —
- Pulse, latest week
- —
- Outlook, 12 months
- —
- Method
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Draws
- 1,000
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
Country values
- Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/fin/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Observation key
nis:IDX.FIN.capital.financial_stability_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
IMF_FSI | 19 |
WB_WDI | 5 |
IMF_WEO | 1 |
SDG | 1 |
ILO | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Across the Nexus
GRA Banking · GRA Asset Management · GRA Fintech · GRA Capital Markets · GRA Private Equity · GRA Institutional Funds
Cite and reuse
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
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Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.