Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure
Distributed ledgers and decentralised physical infrastructure networks: operational, financial-stability and governance risk.
3
Financial stability risk · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk
66
3 index domains
22
Frontier and exponential technology · Information and cyber-physical systems
113
Financial risk · Cyber, AI and frontier technology
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Where do ledgers touch essential services?
- What financial-stability channels exist?
- How is failure governed?
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
- Financial stability riskDomain index · IDX · FINExpert-weighted Mazziotta-Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0-10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
- Cyber riskDomain index · IDX · CYBIndex of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- Technology concentration riskDomain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-17Distributed ledgers and decentralised physical infrastructure networks: operational, financial-stability and governance risk.
- Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Domain indices in this series
| Index | Value | Change | Change % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Trend | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial stability riskNXS-GRX · FIN | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Cyber riskNXS-GRX · CYB | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC | — | — | — | — | — |
Domains read: Financial system, Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital.
66 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwa | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKRC_PT |
| Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.tier1_rwa | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKRTC_PT |
| Common Equity Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.cet1_rwa | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCET_PT |
| Capital to total assets (leverage)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assets | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKA_PT WB_WDI FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS |
| Non-performing loans net of provisions to capitalIND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capital | FIN | Capital adequacy | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKNL_PT |
| Non-performing loans to total gross loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratio | FIN | Asset quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSANL_PT WB_WDI FB.AST.NPER.ZS |
| Provisions to non-performing loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_npl | FIN | Asset quality | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSPN_PT |
| Loan concentration by economic activityIND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentration | FIN | Asset quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCLE_PT |
| Bank claims on general government, share of bank assetsIND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposure | FIN | Asset quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSASDG_PT |
| Return on assetsIND.FIN.earnings.roa | FIN | Earnings | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSERA_PT |
| Return on equityIND.FIN.earnings.roe | FIN | Earnings | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSERE_PT |
| Liquid assets to total assetsIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_total | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSLT_PT WB_WDI FD.RES.LIQU.AS.ZS |
| Liquid assets to short-term liabilitiesIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilities | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSLS_PT |
| Liquidity coverage ratioIND.FIN.liquidity.lcr | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSLCR_PT |
| Net stable funding ratioIND.FIN.liquidity.nsfr | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSNSF_PT |
| Customer deposits to total non-interbank loansIND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loans | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCD_PT |
| Net open foreign-exchange position to capital (absolute)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capital | FIN | Foreign-exchange risk | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSSNO_PT |
| Foreign-currency loans, share of total loans (credit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_share | FIN | Foreign-exchange risk | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSFC_PT |
| Foreign-currency deposits, share of total deposits (deposit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_share | FIN | Foreign-exchange risk | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSFCD_PT |
| Domestic credit to the private sector, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.private_credit.gdp | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | context | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS WB_WDI GFDD.DI.14 |
| Credit-to-GDP gap (BIS)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gap | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Real growth of credit to the private sectorIND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growth | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCGPS_PT |
| Household debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSHG_PT |
| Non-financial corporate debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdp | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSTDGDP_PT |
| Account ownership, adultsIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2 |
| Real residential property price growthIND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growth | FIN | Real estate | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSREPRR_PC_CP_A_PT |
| House price-to-income ratio, deviation from long-run averageIND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gap | FIN | Real estate | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, CITY | |
| Assets of other financial corporations, share of GDPIND.FIN.nbfi.ofc_assets.gdp | FIN | Non-bank financial intermediation | context | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSFAG_PT |
| Insurance penetration (premiums to GDP)IND.FIN.nbfi.insurance_penetration | FIN | Non-bank financial intermediation | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI GFDD.DI.09 WB_WDI GFDD.DI.10 |
| Natural-catastrophe protection gapIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap | FIN | Non-bank financial intermediation | vulnerability | % | REGION, COUNTRY | |
| Bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectorsIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure | FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Bank lending exposed to high physical climate riskIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending | FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | exposure | % | SITE, PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(c) |
| Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi) |
| Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(b) |
| GDP in sectors highly dependent on nature, shareIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share | ENV | Nature dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | |
| Baseline water stress score (sub-basin)IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stress | WAT | Water stress | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO | |
| Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
| International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours | INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a | COUNTRY | |
| ITU Global Cybersecurity Index scoreIND.CYB.capability.gci_score | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Overall score |
| ITU Global Cybersecurity Index tierIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier | CYB | Cyber capability | vulnerability | {class} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Tier |
| ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
| ITU GCI technical measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
| ITU GCI organizational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
| ITU GCI capacity development measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development | CYB | Cyber capability | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures |
| ITU GCI cooperation measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures |
| National computer incident response team in operationIND.CYB.capability.national_cert | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
| Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
| Significant cyber incidents per million populationIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate | CYB | Incidents | hazard | /10*6/a | COUNTRY | |
| Cyber incidents disrupting critical servicesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents | CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp | CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
| E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development | CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
| Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
| High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
| Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight | TEC | Biotechnology | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Sovereign catastrophe risk transfer limit, share of GDPIND.CRS.financing.risk_transfer_cover.gdp | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | |
| Natural-catastrophe insurance protection gapIND.CRS.financing.insurance_protection_gap | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Non-life insurance premiums, share of GDPIND.CRS.financing.non_life_insurance_penetration | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY |
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
| Family | Domain | Hazards | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI system failure and misalignment | Frontier and exponential technology | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | Frontier and exponential technology | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | Frontier and exponential technology | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | Frontier and exponential technology | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | Frontier and exponential technology | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | Frontier and exponential technology | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| Biotechnology and synthetic biology | Frontier and exponential technology | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | Frontier and exponential technology | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | Frontier and exponential technology | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | Frontier and exponential technology | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| Climate intervention technologies | Frontier and exponential technology | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | Frontier and exponential technology | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | Frontier and exponential technology | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | Frontier and exponential technology | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | Frontier and exponential technology | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | Frontier and exponential technology | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
| Malicious compromise | Information and cyber-physical systems | Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … | 9 |
| Information-integrity attacks | Information and cyber-physical systems | Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure | 6 |
| Cyber-physical disruption | Information and cyber-physical systems | Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … | 11 |
| Signal and platform disruption | Information and cyber-physical systems | Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure | 7 |
| Identity, trust and cryptographic failure | Information and cyber-physical systems | Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure | 6 |
| Systemic cyber events | Information and cyber-physical systems | Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … | 9 |
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
Financial risk
Probability of Default · Loss Given Default · Exposure at Default · Expected Credit Loss · Unexpected Credit Loss · Credit Migration · Structural Credit Merton …
Cyber, AI and frontier technology
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
Who uses it
Regulators, supervisors and central banks
Design supervisory scenarios; Read systemic coupling; Replicate methods
Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors
Read sovereign and systemic context; Run climate pathway packs; Build portfolio postures
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
XT-17- Edition status
- planned
- Subject
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
Cite and reuse
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-17:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.FIN.capital.financial_stability_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.