Technology concentration risk index
Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
arithmetic
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
4 components
10 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 100%
From indicators to the composite
Shows exposure to frontier-technology chokepoints against the capacity to absorb them; heavily target-defined, so its grade is capped and its sub-indices are always shown.
- Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIndicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import origin, on a 0-1 scale, for semiconductor devices and electronic integrated circuits (HS 8541 and 8542), by value.
- Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIndicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index, on a 0-1 scale, of public-cloud infrastructure (IaaS and PaaS) spend or hosted capacity serving the economy, across providers.
- AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIndicator · IND · %Share of the accelerator compute (AI-capable GPU/TPU capacity) used by residents that is hosted abroad or controlled by a single provider, by installed capacity.
- Foundation-model provider concentrationIndicator · IND · %Share of AI-model use in the economy's public and critical sectors served by the three largest foundation-model providers.
- Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIndicator · IND · 1Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0-1 scale.
- Largest single supplier share of critical-mineral importsIndicator · IND · %Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
- Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIndicator · IND · %Gross domestic expenditure on research and experimental development by business, government, higher education and private non-profit sectors, as a percentage of GDP (Frascati Manual basis).
- Researchers per million inhabitantsIndicator · IND · /10*6Full-time-equivalent researchers engaged in research and experimental development per million inhabitants.
- High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIndicator · IND · %Exports of products with high R&D intensity (aerospace, computers, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, electrical machinery) as a percentage of manufactured exports.
- Technology dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 44.4%Composite of semiconductor import concentration, cloud provider concentration, foreign control of AI compute and foundation-model concentration.
- Critical-mineral dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
- Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIndicator · IND · w 0.5Score (0-1) for whether every BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory in the economy is licensed, inspected and covered by dual-use research oversight, with a public register of facilities.
- Innovation capacity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of R&D intensity, researcher density and high-technology export share.
- Technology concentration risk indexDomain index · IDX · arithmeticIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- Macro-financial and structural fragilityPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- NXS-GRX Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index's own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component's contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- INFORM_0_10
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 100% of weight
- Weighting
- expert
- Aggregation
- arithmetic
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Uncertainty
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; No mature international indicator standard: target-only
4 components, 10 indicators
Technology dependence sub-index w 2
Composite of semiconductor import concentration, cloud provider concentration, foreign control of AI compute and foundation-model concentration.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration | 1 | Class D | un-comtrade, baci-cepii | 37.5% |
| Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration | 1 | Class E | national-competition-authority-market-studies, commercial-market-research-licensed | 25.0% |
| AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control | % | Class E | oecd-ai-compute-measurement, national-ai-strategies, top500 | 25.0% |
| Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration | % | Class E | public-procurement-records, national-ai-registers, commercial-market-research-licensed | 12.5% |
Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 1
Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | 1 | Class D | un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries | 50.0% |
| Largest single supplier share of critical-mineral importsIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | % | Class D | un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer | 50.0% |
Innovation capacity sub-index w 1
Composite of R&D intensity, researcher density and high-technology export share.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp | % | Class A | unesco-uis, oecd-msti, wb-wdi | 40.0% |
| Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million | /10*6 | Class A | unesco-uis, oecd-msti, wb-wdi | 40.0% |
| High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports | % | Class A | un-comtrade, wb-wdi | 20.0% |
Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratories w 0.5
Score (0-1) for whether every BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory in the economy is licensed, inspected and covered by dual-use research oversight, with a public register of facilities.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight | {score} | Class E | global-biolabs-report, who-jee-reports, national-biosafety-regulators | 100.0% |
Technology and frontier
Frontier technology capability, concentration and systemic technology risk (AI, biotech, space, quantum).
| Sub-domain | Indicators |
|---|---|
| Technology capability | 3 |
| Concentration and dependence | 2 |
| Artificial intelligence | 2 |
| Biotechnology | 1 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): No mature international indicator standard: target-only.
All 8 technology and frontier indicators
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
| Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
| High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
| Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight | TEC | Biotechnology | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY |
Technology concentration risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Previous edition
- —
- Range since 2016
- —
- Coupled composite
- —
- Coupling score S
- —
- Pulse, latest week
- —
- Outlook, 12 months
- —
- Method
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Draws
- 1,000
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
Country values
- Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/tec/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Observation key
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
SDG | 3 |
WB_WDI | 3 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Cite and reuse
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
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Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.