The Global Risks Index
NXS-GRX · XT-16 · Exponential technology series

Advanced manufacturing

Advanced and additive manufacturing, industrial automation and their supply, cyber and labour risks.

Page GRX-SER-XT-16Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX proposedNexus Reports XT-16 (planned)Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices

3

External dependence risk · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk

Indicators

61

3 index domains

Hazard families

29

Frontier and exponential technology · Built systems

Methods

57

Markets, trade and supply chains · Critical infrastructure and industrial systems

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
domain indices
61
indicators in scope
2
hazard domains
3
client groups
01Scope

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. How fragile are advanced manufacturing chains?
  2. What cyber risk enters with automation?
  3. Where does production concentrate?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation
How the Advanced manufacturing index is built
Graph7 nodes
Graph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings
100%
List
  1. External dependence risk
    Domain index · IDX · ECO
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0-10.
  2. Cyber risk
    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  3. Technology concentration risk
    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Advanced manufacturing index
    Series index · SERIES · XT-16
    Advanced and additive manufacturing, industrial automation and their supply, cyber and labour risks.
  5. Country readings
    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings
    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading
    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation.
03Indices

Domain indices in this series

NXS-GRX · XT-16 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Advanced manufacturing index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
IndexValueChangeChange %90% intervalClass · probabilityTrendRange
External dependence riskNXS-GRX · ECO—————
Cyber riskNXS-GRX · CYB—————
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC—————

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Cyber and digital.

04Indicators

61 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table.
IndicatorDomainSub-domainComponentUnitLevelsCrosswalks
Exports of goods and services, current US dollarsIND.MAC.external.exports.usdMACExternal balance and reservescontext[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
Volatility of the terms of trade (10-year)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatilityMACExternal balance and reservesvulnerability%COUNTRY
Natural-resource revenue, share of general government revenueIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_shareFISRevenuevulnerability%COUNTRY
Trade openness (exports plus imports, share of GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdpECOTradeexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
International tourism receipts, share of exportsIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exportsECOTradevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Personal remittances received, share of GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdpECOTradeexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Net official development assistance received, share of GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gniECOTradeexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Export product concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Export market concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Commodity export dependenceIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Manufactures, share of merchandise exportsIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Natural-resource rents, share of GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdpECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Economic complexity indexIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexityECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRY
Food imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Fuel imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
Import origin concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Foreign value added share of gross exportsIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participationECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Supplier concentration of intermediate-goods importsIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentrationECOSupply-chain exposurevulnerability%COUNTRY
Seaborne trade exposed to maritime chokepointsIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposureECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Foreign direct investment net inflows, share of GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdpECOInvestmentcoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
Fuel exports, share of merchandise exportsIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.shareCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
GDP in sectors highly dependent on nature, shareIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.shareENVNature dependenceexposure%COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Water-use efficiencyIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiencyWATWater stressadaptive capacity[USD]/m3COUNTRYSDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
GDP in GNSS-dependent activities, shareIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.shareSPCSpace-service dependenceexposure%COUNTRY, PORTFOLIOUNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Cereal import dependency ratioIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependencyFOOAvailabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Food import bill, share of merchandise exportsIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exportsFOOFood pricesvulnerability%COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, share of GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdpFOOAgricultural production and dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Business environment score (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overallGOVBusiness environmentcoping capacity{score}COUNTRY
Crude oil and products import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Natural gas import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Coal import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentrationENECritical mineralsvulnerability1COUNTRY
Largest single supplier share of critical-mineral importsIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_shareENECritical mineralsvulnerability%COUNTRY
Logistics performanceIND.INF.transport.logistics_performanceINFTransportcoping capacity{score}COUNTRYWB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Liner shipping connectivity relative to the frontierIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivityINFTransportcoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_usersINFDigital connectivitycoping capacity%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYSDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancyINFDigital connectivitycoping capacity1COUNTRY
Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hoursINFDigital connectivityimpacth/aCOUNTRY
Infrastructure investment gap, share of GDPIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdpINFUtilitiesvulnerability%COUNTRY
ITU Global Cybersecurity Index scoreIND.CYB.capability.gci_scoreCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Overall score
ITU Global Cybersecurity Index tierIND.CYB.capability.gci_tierCYBCyber capabilityvulnerability{class}COUNTRYITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI technical measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_technicalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI organizational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizationalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI capacity development measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_developmentCYBCyber capabilityadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI cooperation measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperationCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
National computer incident response team in operationIND.CYB.capability.national_certCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{bool}COUNTRYITU_GCI Technical Measures
Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_lawCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{bool}COUNTRYITU_GCI Legal Measures
Significant cyber incidents per million populationIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rateCYBIncidentshazard/10*6/aCOUNTRY
Cyber incidents disrupting critical servicesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidentsCYBIncidentsimpact1COUNTRY
ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdpCYBDigital dependenceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_developmentCYBDigital dependenceexposure{score}COUNTRY
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdpTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYSDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_millionTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity/10*6COUNTRYSDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exportsTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_controlTECArtificial intelligencevulnerability%COUNTRY
Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentrationTECArtificial intelligencevulnerability%COUNTRY
Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversightTECBiotechnologycoping capacity{score}COUNTRY
05Hazards

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
BuiltFrontier219HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 29 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below.
FamilyDomainHazardsCount
AI system failure and misalignmentFrontier and exponential technologyAI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration …11
AI security and model supply chainFrontier and exponential technologyTheft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning7
AI misuse and capability upliftFrontier and exponential technologyAI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI8
Agentic AI acting at scaleFrontier and exponential technologyRunaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach6
Algorithmic decision and structural harmFrontier and exponential technologyHarmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots …12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weaponsFrontier and exponential technologyLethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure …10
Biotechnology and synthetic biologyFrontier and exponential technologyEngineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release …10
Nanotechnology and advanced materialsFrontier and exponential technologyEngineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended realityFrontier and exponential technologyBrain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transitionFrontier and exponential technologyCryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment4
Climate intervention technologiesFrontier and exponential technologySolar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage …11
Space technology and orbital infrastructureFrontier and exponential technologyDestructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monocultureFrontier and exponential technologyCritical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure3
Advanced and distributed manufacturingFrontier and exponential technology3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure3
Energy-transition technology failuresFrontier and exponential technologyLithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration4
Distributed ledgers and digital assetsFrontier and exponential technologySmart-contract and oracle exploit1
Structural and civil failureBuilt systemsBuilding collapse, Facade and cladding failure, Non-building structure failure, Bridge failure, Tunnel failure, Dam failure, Levee breach, Pipeline rupture8
Utility and communication network outageBuilt systemsWidespread power outage, Water supply failure, Sewer and drain failure, Gas supply network failure, Telecommunications outage, Emergency communications failure6
Transport accidentsBuilt systemsAir transport accident, Maritime accident, Inland waterway accident, Rail accident, Road crash5
Industrial and process accidentsBuilt systemsIndustrial explosion, Reactive chemical store explosion, Industrial fire, Building and urban fire, Explosives accident, Mine accident, Oil and gas extraction accident, Battery thermal runaway fire …15
Energy system instability and shortfallBuilt systemsLow-inertia grid instability, System frequency collapse, Voltage collapse, Mass inverter disconnection, Grid power oscillation, Generation adequacy shortfall, Low wind and solar energy drought, Drought-driven hydropower shortfall …22
Water and wastewater system failureBuilt systemsWastewater treatment plant failure, Distribution network contamination intrusion, Water treatment dosing error, Prolonged drinking-water advisory, Desalination plant outage, Raw-water intake loss, Chronic distribution leakage, Intermittent piped supply …9
Telecom and data-centre failureBuilt systemsData-centre outage, Data-centre fire, Mobile or fixed core network failure, Terrestrial fibre backbone cut, Internet exchange or landing hub failure, Time and synchronisation failure, Telecom backup power exhaustion, Broadcast transmission loss8
Space-based service lossBuilt systemsNavigation satellite system fault, Satellite communications outage, Weather and Earth-observation satellite gap, Satellite ground segment failure4
Seabed infrastructure damageBuilt systemsSubsea pipeline damage, Subsea power cable damage, Covert seabed infrastructure sabotage3
Transport network disruptionBuilt systemsAir traffic management failure, Large-scale airspace closure, Rail network outage, Heat-induced track buckling, Strategic road network closure, Low-water navigation restriction, Navigation lock or canal structure failure, Dangerous goods transport accident …12
Food system infrastructure failureBuilt systemsFood storage loss, Irrigation system failure, Food processing bottleneck, Strategic food reserve depletion, Loss of energy for food production5
Urban and building-stock stressBuilt systemsBuilding overheating, Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock, Defective building material in use, Construction and temporary works collapse, Tunnelling and excavation ground damage, High-rise evacuation failure6
Ageing and degraded infrastructureBuilt systemsInfrastructure deterioration, Deferred maintenance backlog, Reinforced concrete deterioration, Metal fatigue cracking, Ageing dam and reservoir stock, Legacy technology obsolescence, Infrastructure skills shortage7
06Methods

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

30 methods

Markets, trade and supply chains

Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …

27 methods

Critical infrastructure and industrial systems

Asset Reliability · Process Safety · HAZOP · FMEA FMECA · Industrial Fault Tree · Industrial Event Tree · LOPA …

07Users

Who uses it

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers; Watch chokepoints and pulse; Read country context

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context; Run climate pathway packs; Build portfolio postures

08Reports

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-16
Edition status
planned
Subject
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
Nexus Reports
09Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Advanced manufacturing series (GRX-SER-XT-16), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-16/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000103.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-16:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.