NXS-GRX · GRX-IDX-ECO · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

External dependence risk index

Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0-10.

Page GRX-IDX-ECOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_riskValues not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76

FIG 1 · Method card

Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Uncertainty

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Structure

5 components

22 leaf indicators

Coverage

80% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.

leaf indicators

components

1,000

Monte Carlo draws

series read it

01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta-Pareto alternatives.

computation

How External dependence risk is computed

Graph30 nodes

Graph

01Indicators

02Sub-indices

03Domain index

04Pillar

05Composite

100%

List

Trade openness (exports plus imports, share of GDP)
Indicator · IND · %
Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
International tourism receipts, share of exports
Indicator · IND · %
Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
Personal remittances received, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
Net official development assistance received, share of GNI
Indicator · IND · %
Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
Foreign direct investment net inflows, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
Export product concentration (normalised HHI)
Indicator · IND · 1
Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0-1 scale.
Export market concentration (normalised HHI)
Indicator · IND · 1
Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0-1 scale.
Commodity export dependence
Indicator · IND · %
Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
Natural-resource rents, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
Volatility of the terms of trade (10-year)
Indicator · IND · %
Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
Economic complexity index
Indicator · IND · {score}
Score of the diversity and sophistication of a country's export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
Food imports, share of merchandise imports
Indicator · IND · %
Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
Fuel imports, share of merchandise imports
Indicator · IND · %
Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
Net import reliance for critical minerals
Indicator · IND · %
Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0-100 %.
Import origin concentration (normalised HHI)
Indicator · IND · 1
Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0-1 scale.
Foreign value added share of gross exports
Indicator · IND · %
Share of foreign value added embodied in the country's gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
Supplier concentration of intermediate-goods imports
Indicator · IND · %
Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
Seaborne trade exposed to maritime chokepoints
Indicator · IND · %
Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
Current account balance, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
Reserves in months of imports
Indicator · IND · mo
Gross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
Short-term external debt, share of reserves
Indicator · IND · %
External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
External debt stocks, share of GNI
Indicator · IND · %
Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
External flow dependence sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
Essential import dependence sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
Supply-chain exposure sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%
Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
External vulnerability sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
External dependence risk index
Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0-10.
Macro-financial and structural fragility
Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
NXS-GRX Composite Risk
Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices

Not runIn progressDone

FIG 2. 22 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order.

02Simulator

Run this index's own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component's contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate external dependence risk on your numbers

Components (0 to 10)

External flow dependence sub-index · w 13.0

Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index · w 1.55.0

Essential import dependence sub-index · w 1.57.0

Supply-chain exposure sub-index · w 0.754.0

External vulnerability sub-index · w 16.0

Aggregation

Weight uncertainty ±%25

Mix aggregation alternatives (0 or 1)1

–

runs in your browser

Contribution of each component (leave one out)

Simulator: the index's published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) values.

03Method

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment: NONE
Outlier rule: |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation: IDENTITY
Imputation: NONE
Coverage minimum: 80% of components
Modelled share cap: 20% of weight
Weighting: expert
Aggregation: arithmetic
Scale: 0 to 10
Uncertainty: 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis: OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)

Very low0.0 to < 2.0

Low2.0 to < 3.5

Medium3.5 to < 5.0

High5.0 to < 6.5

Very high6.5 to 10.0

04Components

5 components, 22 indicators

External flow dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Trade openness (exports plus imports, share of GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp	%	Class A	wb-wdi, imf-bop	22.2%
International tourism receipts, share of exportsIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports	%	Class B	wb-wdi, un-tourism	22.2%
Personal remittances received, share of GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp	%	Class A	wb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop	22.2%
Net official development assistance received, share of GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni	%	Class A	wb-wdi, oecd-dac	22.2%
Foreign direct investment net inflows, share of GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp	%	Class A	wb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi	11.1%

Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Export product concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi	1	Class B	unctad-stat, un-comtrade	18.2%
Export market concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi	1	Class B	un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat	13.6%
Commodity export dependenceIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share	%	Class B	unctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi	18.2%
Natural-resource rents, share of GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp	%	Class C	wb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations	13.6%
Volatility of the terms of trade (10-year)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility	%	Class B	derived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo	18.2%
Economic complexity indexIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity	{score}	Class C	harvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check	18.2%

Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Food imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share	%	Class B	wb-wdi, un-comtrade	28.6%
Fuel imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share	%	Class B	wb-wdi, un-comtrade	28.6%
Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance	%	Class D	derived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals	14.3%
Import origin concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi	1	Class B	un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat	28.6%

Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75

Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Foreign value added share of gross exportsIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation	%	Class C	oecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora	33.3%
Supplier concentration of intermediate-goods importsIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration	%	Class D	derived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci	33.3%
Seaborne trade exposed to maritime chokepointsIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure	%	Class D	derived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed	33.3%

External vulnerability sub-index w 1

Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Current account balance, share of GDPIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp	%	Class A	wb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop	25.0%
Reserves in months of importsIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_cover	mo	Class A	wb-wdi, imf-irfcl	25.0%
Short-term external debt, share of reservesIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves	%	Class A	wb-ids, wb-wdi	25.0%
External debt stocks, share of GNIIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni	%	Class A	wb-ids	25.0%

05Domain

Economic structure and trade

Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.

Sub-domain	Indicators
Trade	4
Export and import concentration	10
Supply-chain exposure	3
Investment	1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.

06Indicators

All 18 economic structure and trade indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain

Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table.

Filter by name, code, domain, sub-domain or crosswalk

Indicator	Domain	Sub-domain	Component	Unit	Levels	Crosswalks
Trade openness (exports plus imports, share of GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp	ECO	Trade	exposure	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
International tourism receipts, share of exportsIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports	ECO	Trade	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Personal remittances received, share of GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp	ECO	Trade	exposure	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Net official development assistance received, share of GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni	ECO	Trade	exposure	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Export product concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi	ECO	Export and import concentration	vulnerability	1	COUNTRY
Export market concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi	ECO	Export and import concentration	vulnerability	1	COUNTRY
Commodity export dependenceIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share	ECO	Export and import concentration	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Manufactures, share of merchandise exportsIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share	ECO	Export and import concentration	adaptive capacity	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Natural-resource rents, share of GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp	ECO	Export and import concentration	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Economic complexity indexIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity	ECO	Export and import concentration	adaptive capacity	{score}	COUNTRY
Food imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share	ECO	Export and import concentration	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Fuel imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share	ECO	Export and import concentration	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance	ECO	Export and import concentration	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
Import origin concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi	ECO	Export and import concentration	vulnerability	1	COUNTRY
Foreign value added share of gross exportsIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation	ECO	Supply-chain exposure	exposure	%	COUNTRY
Supplier concentration of intermediate-goods importsIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration	ECO	Supply-chain exposure	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
Seaborne trade exposed to maritime chokepointsIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure	ECO	Supply-chain exposure	exposure	%	COUNTRY
Foreign direct investment net inflows, share of GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp	ECO	Investment	coping capacity	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS

07Quote

External dependence risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ECO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale

External dependence risk index, world

—

Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.

Previous edition: —
Range since 2016: —
Coupled composite: —
Coupling score S: —
Pulse, latest week: —
Outlook, 12 months: —
Method: Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Draws: 1,000

External dependence risk index, world, by edition

No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.

No movements yet. Changes since the previous edition are listed here from the second edition on, with the indicators that drove them.

08Values

Country values

FIG 5 · External dependence risk index: countries (values when released)Find a country

Loading the map

Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released

Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index's classes with each country's interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.

Tiles: /api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Observation key: nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

09Series

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.GS-05Global Finance and economyFiscal and public debt risk, financial stability, external dependence, inflation and growth at risk, and the macro-financial channels of physical and transition risk.SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security.SR-03Supply chains, trade and chokepointsTrade concentration, maritime and overland chokepoints, input–output exposure and the propagation of supply shocks.SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction.XT-06SemiconductorsSemiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure.XT-16Advanced manufacturingAdvanced and additive manufacturing, industrial automation and their supply, cyber and labour risks.

10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code system	Leaf indicators mapped
`WB_WDI`	16
`SDG`	1
`IMF_WEO`	1

11Across the Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

Across the Nexus

GCRI Trade and Strategic Resources · GCRI Food · GCRI Advanced Industry and Robotics

12Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): External dependence risk index (GRX-IDX-ECO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/external-dependence-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000118.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

Status

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.

Cart review

External dependence risk index

arithmetic

1,000 draws

5 components

80% minimum

From indicators to the composite

Run this index's own aggregation

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

5 components, 22 indicators

External flow dependence sub-index w 1

Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5

Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75

External vulnerability sub-index w 1

Economic structure and trade

All 18 economic structure and trade indicators

External dependence risk index, world

Country values

Series that read this index

Crosswalks and validity checks

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Across the Nexus

Cite and reuse

See this index in every country profile

Status

What NXS-GRX is not

Institutions and sources

GLOBAL RISKS INDEX (GRIx)