NXS-GRX · GRX-IDX-FOO · VUL Human and systems vulnerability
Food insecurity risk index
Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
Page GRX-IDX-FOOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_riskValues not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
mazziotta pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
Uncertainty
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Structure
5 components
20 leaf indicators
Coverage
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Joins today's acute severity with the structural and price conditions that drive tomorrow's; acute severity carries the largest weight and every sub-index stays visible.
computation
How Food insecurity risk is computedGraph
01Indicators
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pillar
05Composite
100%
List
- Share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or aboveIndicator · IND · %People in IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5 as a percentage of the population covered by the analysis.
- Population in IPC Phase 3 or aboveIndicator · IND · {persons}Number of people classified in Crisis, Emergency or Catastrophe/Famine (IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5) in the most recent current-period analysis.
- Presence of population in IPC Phase 5Indicator · IND · {bool}Whether the most recent current or projected analysis classifies any population or area in Phase 5 (Catastrophe or Famine).
- Prevalence of undernourishmentIndicator · IND · %Estimated share of the population whose habitual dietary energy intake falls below the minimum needed for a healthy, active life, three-year average.
- Moderate or severe food insecurity (FIES)Indicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported experiences of moderate or severe food insecurity on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, three-year average.
- Severe food insecurity (FIES)Indicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported severe food insecurity, such as running out of food or going a day without eating, three-year average.
- Population unable to afford a healthy dietIndicator · IND · %Share of the population whose income, after setting aside a typical share for non-food needs, falls below the cost of a healthy diet.
- Indicator of food price anomalies (food CPI)Indicator · IND · 1Weighted compound growth of the food consumer price index over quarterly and annual horizons, expressed in standard deviations from its historical mean; values of 1 or more are abnormally high.
- Months with abnormally high food pricesIndicator · IND · %Share of the latest twelve months in which the food price anomaly indicator was 1 or above.
- Food price inflationIndicator · IND · %Annual percentage change in the food component of the consumer price index.
- Cost of a healthy dietIndicator · IND · [USD]Daily cost per person of the least expensive locally available foods that meet food-based dietary guidelines, in PPP dollars.
- Average dietary energy supply adequacyIndicator · IND · %Dietary energy supply per person as a percentage of the average dietary energy requirement, three-year average.
- Per capita food supply variabilityIndicator · IND · kcal/d/{person}Year-to-year variability of dietary energy supply per person, in kilocalories per person per day.
- Cereal import dependency ratioIndicator · IND · %Net cereal imports as a percentage of domestic cereal supply (production plus imports minus exports), three-year average; negative values mark net exporters.
- Food import bill, share of merchandise exportsIndicator · IND · %Value of food imports as a percentage of total merchandise export earnings, three-year average.
- Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, share of GDPIndicator · IND · %Gross value added of agriculture, forestry and fishing (ISIC divisions 01-03) as a percentage of GDP.
- Employment in agriculture, share of total employmentIndicator · IND · %People employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing as a percentage of total employment (ILO modelled estimate).
- Cereal yieldIndicator · IND · kg/harHarvested production of cereals for dry grain per hectare of harvested land.
- Cereal yield variability (15-year)Indicator · IND · %Coefficient of variation of linearly detrended national cereal yield over the latest fifteen years with data.
- Agricultural water withdrawal, share of totalIndicator · IND · %Freshwater withdrawn for irrigation, livestock and aquaculture as a percentage of total freshwater withdrawal.
- Acute food insecurity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 33.3%Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
- Chronic food insecurity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 25.0%Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
- Food price stress sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
- Food supply fragility sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
- Agricultural dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 8.3%Composite of agriculture's share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture's share of water withdrawal.
- Food insecurity risk indexDomain index · IDX · mazziotta paretoWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
- Human and systems vulnerabilityPillar · PILLAR · 8 indicesHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- NXS-GRX Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Not runIn progressDone
02Simulator
Run this index's own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component's contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate food insecurity risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
runs in your browser
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03Method
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- expert
- Aggregation
- mazziotta pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Uncertainty
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- IPC Technical Manual 3.1 (2021) contributing factors; FAO SOFI; FSIN Global Report on Food Crises (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide
Very low0.0 to < 2.0
Low2.0 to < 3.5
Medium3.5 to < 5.0
High5.0 to < 6.5
Very high6.5 to 10.0
04Components
5 components, 20 indicators
Acute food insecurity sub-index w 2
Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or aboveIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share | % | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, derived:nis:IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | 50.0% |
| Population in IPC Phase 3 or aboveIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | {persons} | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, fsin-grfc | 25.0% |
| Presence of population in IPC Phase 5IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence | {bool} | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, ipc-famine-review-committee | 25.0% |
Chronic food insecurity sub-index w 1.5
Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prevalence of undernourishmentIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-sofi, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
| Moderate or severe food insecurity (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
| Severe food insecurity (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
| Population unable to afford a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | % | Class C | wb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi | 25.0% |
Food price stress sub-index w 1
Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator of food price anomalies (food CPI)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | 1 | Class B | fao-giews-fpma, fao-faostat-cpi | 25.0% |
| Months with abnormally high food pricesIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months | % | Class D | derived:nis:IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | 25.0% |
| Food price inflationIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation | % | Class B | fao-faostat-cpi, national-cpi | 25.0% |
| Cost of a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | [USD] | Class C | wb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi | 25.0% |
Food supply fragility sub-index w 1
Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average dietary energy supply adequacyIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
| Per capita food supply variabilityIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability | kcal/d/{person} | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
| Cereal import dependency ratioIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
| Food import bill, share of merchandise exportsIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Agricultural dependence sub-index w 0.5
Composite of agriculture's share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture's share of water withdrawal.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, share of GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, un-national-accounts | 22.2% |
| Employment in agriculture, share of total employmentIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | % | Class C | ilo-ilostat, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
| Cereal yieldIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield | kg/har | Class B | fao-faostat-qcl, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
| Cereal yield variability (15-year)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability | % | Class D | derived:nis:IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield, fao-faostat-qcl | 22.2% |
| Agricultural water withdrawal, share of totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal | % | Class B | fao-aquastat, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
05Domain
Food systems
Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity.
| Sub-domain | Indicators |
|---|---|
| Availability | 5 |
| Access and affordability | 4 |
| Acute food insecurity | 4 |
| Food prices | 3 |
| Agricultural production and dependence | 7 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): FAO SOFI (PoU, FIES); IPC Technical Manual 3.1; SDG 2.
06Indicators
All 23 food systems indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prevalence of undernourishmentIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS |
| Number of people undernourishedIND.FOO.availability.people_undernourished | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | {persons} | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210011 |
| Average dietary energy supply adequacyIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21010 |
| Per capita food supply variabilityIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | kcal/d/{person} | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21031 |
| Cereal import dependency ratioIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
| Moderate or severe food insecurity (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS |
| Severe food insecurity (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS |
| Cost of a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | [USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_PPP |
| Population unable to afford a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_headcount |
| Population in IPC Phase 3 or aboveIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
| Share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or aboveIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
| IPC Phase 3 or above, share of total populationIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_total | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % | COUNTRY | |
| Presence of population in IPC Phase 5IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {bool} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 5 |
| Indicator of food price anomalies (food CPI)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | FOO | Food prices | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | SDG 2.c.1 |
| Months with abnormally high food pricesIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months | FOO | Food prices | hazard | % | COUNTRY | |
| Food import bill, share of merchandise exportsIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, share of GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
| Employment in agriculture, share of total employmentIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS |
| Cereal yieldIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | kg/har | COUNTRY | WB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG |
| Cereal yield variability (15-year)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Agricultural water withdrawal, share of totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS |
| Cropland, share of land areaIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS |
| Vegetation Health Index on croplandIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID |
07Quote
Food insecurity risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · FOO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Food insecurity risk index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
- Previous edition
- —
- Range since 2016
- —
- Coupled composite
- —
- Coupling score S
- —
- Pulse, latest week
- —
- Outlook, 12 months
- —
- Method
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Draws
- 1,000
Food insecurity risk index, world, by edition
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
Africa54
Americas35
Asia48
Europe44
No movements yet. Changes since the previous edition are listed here from the second edition on, with the indicators that drove them.
08Values
Country values
FIG 5 · Food insecurity risk index: countries (values when released)
Loading the map
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/foo/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Observation key
nis:IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Series
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.GS-03Global Food and agrifoodAcute and chronic food insecurity, production shocks, import dependency, prices, fertiliser and logistics chokepoints, nutrition and pollination dependency.SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security.SR-07Food, water and energyThe food–water–energy nexus: shared stressors, trade-offs and joint failures.SR-09Planetary boundariesEarth-system boundaries and tipping elements as slow-onset, high-impact risk.TH-01Nexus InterdependencyThe water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems read together: drought to energy stress, energy disruption to health stress, biodiversity loss to food-system stress, flood to water contamination, heat to health and grid stress, cyber-physical disruption across all five.
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 9 |
FAO_FAOSTAT | 8 |
SDG | 4 |
IPC | 3 |
11Across the Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Across the Nexus
GCRI Food · GCRI Biotechnology and Biosecurity · GRF Climate and Nature Governance
12Cite
Cite and reuse
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Food insecurity risk index (GRX-IDX-FOO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/food-insecurity-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000123.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.