NXS-GRX · GRX-IDX-ENE · VUL Human and systems vulnerability

Energy security risk index

Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.

Construction Simulator Indicators

Page GRX-IDX-ENEEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_riskValues not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76

FIG 1 · Method card

Aggregation

geometric

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Uncertainty

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

Structure

5 components

20 leaf indicators

Coverage

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 25%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.

leaf indicators

components

1,000

Monte Carlo draws

series read it

01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Shows where an energy shock, from a supplier, a chokepoint, a grid failure or a mineral export control, would hit hardest; each sub-index stays visible beside the total.

computation

How Energy security risk is computed

Graph28 nodes

Graph

01Indicators

02Sub-indices

03Domain index

04Pillar

05Composite

100%

List

Population with access to electricity
Indicator · IND · %
Share of the population living in households with an electricity supply that can power at least basic lighting, whether from the grid, a mini-grid or a stand-alone system.
Population relying primarily on clean cooking fuels and technologies
Indicator · IND · %
Share of the population whose household cooks mainly with clean fuels and stoves (electricity, gas, biogas, ethanol, solar) rather than solid fuels or kerosene.
Net energy import dependence
Indicator · IND · %
Energy imports minus exports as a share of total energy supply, all fuels in energy units; negative values denote net exporters.
Fuel import bill, share of exports of goods and services
Indicator · IND · %
Value of imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of total exports of goods and services in the same year.
Crude oil and products import supplier concentration
Indicator · IND · 1
Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import shares by country of origin for crude oil and refined oil products combined, in energy units, on a 0-1 scale; weighted by import dependence when used in composites.
Natural gas import supplier concentration
Indicator · IND · 1
Herfindahl-Hirschman index of natural gas import shares by origin, counting pipeline gas and LNG cargoes together, on a 0-1 scale.
Coal import supplier concentration
Indicator · IND · 1
Herfindahl-Hirschman index of coal import shares (steam and metallurgical) by origin, in energy units, on a 0-1 scale.
Oil stocks in days of net imports
Indicator · IND · d
Emergency and commercial oil stocks held on national territory (or under bilateral agreement) divided by average daily net oil imports of the previous year, in days, following the IEA stockholding convention.
Electricity generation-mix concentration
Indicator · IND · 1
Herfindahl-Hirschman index of annual electricity generation shares across sources (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, bioenergy, other), on a 0-1 scale.
Fossil share of electricity generation
Indicator · IND · %
Share of gross electricity generation produced from coal, oil and natural gas.
Primary energy intensity of GDP
Indicator · IND · MJ/[USD]
Total energy supply divided by GDP at ICP 2021 purchasing-power parities, in megajoules per international dollar.
Renewable share of total final energy consumption
Indicator · IND · %
Share of final energy consumption met from renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern and traditional bioenergy, ocean), with traditional biomass reported as a separate disaggregation.
Installed renewable generating capacity per capita
Indicator · IND · W/{person}
Installed renewable electricity-generating capacity at year end divided by mid-year population, in watts per person.
Power outages experienced by firms in a typical month
Indicator · IND · /mo
Average number of electrical outages that formal private firms report in a typical month, from establishment surveys.
Value lost to electrical outages, share of firm sales
Indicator · IND · %
Losses that firms attribute to power outages as a percentage of annual sales, from establishment surveys.
System average interruption duration (SAIDI)
Indicator · IND · h/a
Total minutes of sustained supply interruption per customer served in the year, expressed in hours, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
System average interruption frequency (SAIFI)
Indicator · IND · /a
Number of sustained supply interruptions per customer served in the year, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
Electric power transmission and distribution losses
Indicator · IND · %
Electricity lost between generation and the consumer, technical and commercial, as a share of electricity output.
Critical-mineral import supplier concentration
Indicator · IND · 1
Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0-1 scale.
Largest single supplier share of critical-mineral imports
Indicator · IND · %
Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
Energy access deficit sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).
Fuel import dependence sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%
Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.
Energy mix rigidity sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.
Electricity supply unreliability sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
Critical-mineral dependence sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%
Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
Energy security risk index
Domain index · IDX · geometric
Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
Human and systems vulnerability
Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indices
How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
NXS-GRX Composite Risk
Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices

Not runIn progressDone

FIG 2. 20 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order.

02Simulator

Run this index's own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component's contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate energy security risk on your numbers

Components (0 to 10)

Energy access deficit sub-index · w 13.0

Fuel import dependence sub-index · w 1.55.0

Energy mix rigidity sub-index · w 17.0

Electricity supply unreliability sub-index · w 14.0

Critical-mineral dependence sub-index · w 0.56.0

Aggregation

Weight uncertainty ±%25

Mix aggregation alternatives (0 or 1)1

–

runs in your browser

Contribution of each component (leave one out)

Simulator: the index's published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) values.

03Method

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment: WINSORISE
Outlier rule: |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation: INFORM_0_10
Imputation: NONE
Coverage minimum: 67% of components
Modelled share cap: 25% of weight
Weighting: expert
Aggregation: geometric
Scale: 0 to 10
Uncertainty: 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis: OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; IEA energy security concept; INFORM risk algebra (geometric aggregation)

Very low0.0 to < 2.0

Low2.0 to < 3.5

Medium3.5 to < 5.0

High5.0 to < 6.5

Very high6.5 to 10.0

04Components

5 components, 20 indicators

Energy access deficit sub-index w 1

Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Population with access to electricityIND.ENE.access.electricity_access	%	Class B	wb-wdi, iea-sdg7-tracking, national-household-surveys	66.7%
Population relying primarily on clean cooking fuels and technologiesIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking	%	Class C	who-household-energy-database, wb-wdi	33.3%

Fuel import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Net energy import dependenceIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports	%	Class B	iea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-wdi	30.8%
Fuel import bill, share of exports of goods and servicesIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports	%	Class A	un-comtrade, imf-bop, wb-wdi	15.4%
Crude oil and products import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration	1	Class B	un-comtrade, iea-oil-information, jodi-oil	15.4%
Natural gas import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration	1	Class B	un-comtrade, iea-natural-gas-information, jodi-gas, giignl-lng-report	15.4%
Coal import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration	1	Class B	un-comtrade, iea-coal-information	7.7%
Oil stocks in days of net importsIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks	d	Class B	iea-oil-stocks-of-member-countries, eurostat-emergency-oil-stocks, jodi-oil	15.4%

Energy mix rigidity sub-index w 1

Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Electricity generation-mix concentrationIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration	1	Class B	iea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, un-energy-statistics-database	22.2%
Fossil share of electricity generationIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share	%	Class B	iea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, wb-wdi	22.2%
Primary energy intensity of GDPIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity	MJ/[USD]	Class B	iea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-icp	22.2%
Renewable share of total final energy consumptionIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec	%	Class B	iea-world-energy-balances, irena-renewable-energy-statistics, un-energy-statistics-database	22.2%
Installed renewable generating capacity per capitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc	W/{person}	Class B	irena-renewable-capacity-statistics	11.1%

Electricity supply unreliability sub-index w 1

Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Power outages experienced by firms in a typical monthIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages	/mo	Class B	wb-enterprise-surveys, wb-b-ready	22.2%
Value lost to electrical outages, share of firm salesIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss	%	Class B	wb-enterprise-surveys	22.2%
System average interruption duration (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi	h/a	Class B	wb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-861	22.2%
System average interruption frequency (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi	/a	Class B	wb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-861	22.2%
Electric power transmission and distribution lossesIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses	%	Class B	iea-electricity-information, national-energy-regulators, wb-wdi	11.1%

Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 0.5

Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration	1	Class D	un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries	50.0%
Largest single supplier share of critical-mineral importsIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share	%	Class D	un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer	50.0%

05Domain

Energy

Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition.

Sub-domain	Indicators
Access	3
Supply security and import dependence	6
Energy mix	6
Reliability	6
Critical minerals	2

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IEA energy security; SDG 7; IRENA.

06Indicators

All 23 energy indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain

Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table.

Filter by name, code, domain, sub-domain or crosswalk

Indicator	Domain	Sub-domain	Component	Unit	Levels	Crosswalks
Population with access to electricityIND.ENE.access.electricity_access	ENE	Access	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY, ADM1	SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
Population relying primarily on clean cooking fuels and technologiesIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking	ENE	Access	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY, ADM1	SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
Electricity consumption per capitaIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc	ENE	Access	context	kW.h/a/{person}	COUNTRY	WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
Renewable share of total final energy consumptionIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec	ENE	Energy mix	adaptive capacity	%	COUNTRY	SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Primary energy intensity of GDPIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity	ENE	Energy mix	vulnerability	MJ/[USD]	COUNTRY	SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Electricity generation-mix concentrationIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration	ENE	Energy mix	vulnerability	1	COUNTRY
Fossil share of electricity generationIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share	ENE	Energy mix	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Installed renewable generating capacity per capitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc	ENE	Energy mix	adaptive capacity	W/{person}	COUNTRY	SDG 7.b.1
Water-dependent electricity generation, shareIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share	ENE	Energy mix	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY, ADM1
Net energy import dependenceIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports	ENE	Supply security and import dependence	exposure	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
Fuel import bill, share of exports of goods and servicesIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports	ENE	Supply security and import dependence	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Crude oil and products import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration	ENE	Supply security and import dependence	vulnerability	1	COUNTRY
Natural gas import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration	ENE	Supply security and import dependence	vulnerability	1	COUNTRY
Coal import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration	ENE	Supply security and import dependence	vulnerability	1	COUNTRY
Oil stocks in days of net importsIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks	ENE	Supply security and import dependence	coping capacity	d	COUNTRY
Power outages experienced by firms in a typical monthIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages	ENE	Reliability	vulnerability	/mo	COUNTRY	WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Value lost to electrical outages, share of firm salesIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss	ENE	Reliability	impact	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
System average interruption duration (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi	ENE	Reliability	vulnerability	h/a	COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY	ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
System average interruption frequency (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi	ENE	Reliability	vulnerability	/a	COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY	ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Electric power transmission and distribution lossesIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses	ENE	Reliability	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
Heating and cooling degree daysIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days	ENE	Reliability	hazard	K.d/a	COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration	ENE	Critical minerals	vulnerability	1	COUNTRY
Largest single supplier share of critical-mineral importsIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share	ENE	Critical minerals	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY

07Quote

Energy security risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ENE · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale

Energy security risk index, world

—

Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.

Previous edition: —
Range since 2016: —
Coupled composite: —
Coupling score S: —
Pulse, latest week: —
Outlook, 12 months: —
Method: Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Draws: 1,000

Energy security risk index, world, by edition

No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.

No movements yet. Changes since the previous edition are listed here from the second edition on, with the indicators that drove them.

08Values

Country values

FIG 5 · Energy security risk index: countries (values when released)Find a country

Loading the map

Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released

Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index's classes with each country's interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.

Tiles: /api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/ene/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Observation key: nis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

09Series

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.GS-02Global EnergySupply adequacy, import dependency, grid reliability, affordability, extreme-weather exposure, critical minerals and transition pathways.SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction.SR-07Food, water and energyThe food–water–energy nexus: shared stressors, trade-offs and joint failures.XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps.TH-01Nexus InterdependencyThe water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems read together: drought to energy stress, energy disruption to health stress, biodiversity loss to food-system stress, flood to water contamination, heat to health and grid stress, cyber-physical disruption across all five.

10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code system	Leaf indicators mapped
`WB_WDI`	10
`SDG`	5
`ISO_37120`	2

11Across the Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

Across the Nexus

GCRI Energy · GCRI Data and Compute

12Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Energy security risk index (GRX-IDX-ENE), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/energy-security-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000119.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

Status

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.

Cart review

Energy security risk index

geometric

1,000 draws

5 components

67% minimum

From indicators to the composite

Run this index's own aggregation

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

5 components, 20 indicators

Energy access deficit sub-index w 1

Fuel import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Energy mix rigidity sub-index w 1

Electricity supply unreliability sub-index w 1

Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 0.5

Energy

All 23 energy indicators

Energy security risk index, world

Country values

Series that read this index

Crosswalks and validity checks

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Across the Nexus

Cite and reuse

See this index in every country profile

Status

What NXS-GRX is not

Institutions and sources

GLOBAL RISKS INDEX (GRIx)