NXS-GRX · GRX-IDX-GOV · LCC Lack of coping and adaptive capacity
Governance weakness index
Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
Page GRX-IDX-GOVEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weaknessValues not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
arithmetic
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
Uncertainty
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Structure
4 components
16 leaf indicators
Coverage
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
16
leaf indicators
4
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
12
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Institutional weakness turns hazards into disasters and disasters into crises; the four sub-indices stay visible, and the CPI is excluded because its licence forbids derivatives.
computation
How Governance weakness is computedGraph
01Indicators
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pillar
05Composite
100%
List
- Voice and accountability (WGI)Indicator · IND · {score}Perceived extent to which citizens can choose their government and enjoy freedom of expression, association and a free media, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Political stability and absence of violence (WGI)Indicator · IND · {score}Perceived likelihood of political instability or politically motivated violence, including terrorism, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Government effectiveness (WGI)Indicator · IND · {score}Perceived quality of public services, of the civil service and its independence from political pressure, and of policy formulation and implementation, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Control of corruption (WGI)Indicator · IND · {score}Perceived extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including petty and grand corruption and state capture, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Press freedom score (RSF)Indicator · IND · {score}Reporters Without Borders World Press Freedom Index score, 0 to 100 with higher meaning freer, under the methodology in use since 2022; ingested as published.
- Rule of law (WGI)Indicator · IND · {score}Perceived confidence in and adherence to the rules of society, including contract enforcement, property rights, police and courts, and the likelihood of crime and violence, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Property rights and rule-based governance (CPIA)Indicator · IND · {score}World Bank staff rating, from 1 to 6, of the extent to which private economic activity is facilitated by an effective legal system and rule-based governance that respects property and contract rights.
- Unsentenced detainees, share of prison populationIndicator · IND · %People held in detention who have not been sentenced, as a percentage of the total prison population.
- Bribery incidence among firmsIndicator · IND · %Share of firms that experienced at least one bribe payment request across six types of public transactions, from Enterprise Surveys.
- Regulatory quality (WGI)Indicator · IND · {score}Perceived ability of government to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private-sector development, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- CPIA overall rating (IDA resource allocation index)Indicator · IND · {score}Average World Bank staff rating, from 1 to 6, of economic management, structural policies, social inclusion and public-sector management, for IDA-eligible countries.
- Efficiency of revenue mobilisation (CPIA)Indicator · IND · {score}World Bank staff rating, from 1 to 6, of the tax policy and tax administration: base breadth, rate structure, collection efficiency and compliance cost.
- Deviation of budget execution from the approved budgetIndicator · IND · %Absolute difference, in percentage points, between primary government expenditure outturn and 100 % of the originally approved budget.
- Statistical Performance Indicators overall scoreIndicator · IND · {score}World Bank SPI overall score, from 0 to 100, across data use, data services, data products, data sources and data infrastructure.
- Completeness of birth registrationIndicator · IND · %Share of children under five whose births are registered with civil authorities.
- Years since the last population censusIndicator · IND · aNumber of years between the reference year and the most recent completed population and housing census.
- Governance quality sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 44.4%Composite of WGI voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption, with RSF press freedom.
- Rule of law sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of WGI rule of law, CPIA property rights, unsentenced detention and firms' experience of bribery.
- Policy and institutional quality sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of WGI regulatory quality, the CPIA overall rating, revenue-mobilisation efficiency and budget credibility.
- Statistical capacity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 11.1%Composite of the SPI overall score, completeness of birth registration and census recency.
- Governance weakness indexDomain index · IDX · arithmeticWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
- Lack of coping and adaptive capacityPillar · PILLAR · 2 indicesCan institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
- NXS-GRX Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Not runIn progressDone
02Simulator
Run this index's own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component's contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate governance weakness on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
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runs in your browser
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03Method
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- MIN_MAX
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- expert
- Aggregation
- arithmetic
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Uncertainty
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- INFORM Lack of Coping Capacity: institutional (structure only); WB WGI 2025 methodology; JRC COIN 10-step guide; OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
Very low0.0 to < 2.0
Low2.0 to < 3.5
Medium3.5 to < 5.0
High5.0 to < 6.5
Very high6.5 to 10.0
04Components
4 components, 16 indicators
Governance quality sub-index w 2
Composite of WGI voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption, with RSF press freedom.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Voice and accountability (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 22.2% |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 22.2% |
| Government effectiveness (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 22.2% |
| Control of corruption (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 22.2% |
| Press freedom score (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom | {score} | Class E | rsf-world-press-freedom-index (licence terms to be cleared) | 11.1% |
Rule of law sub-index w 1
Composite of WGI rule of law, CPIA property rights, unsentenced detention and firms' experience of bribery.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rule of law (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 40.0% |
| Property rights and rule-based governance (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights | {score} | Class E | wb-cpia, wb-wdi | 20.0% |
| Unsentenced detainees, share of prison populationIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees | % | Class B | unodc-cts | 20.0% |
| Bribery incidence among firmsIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms | % | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys, wb-wdi | 20.0% |
Policy and institutional quality sub-index w 1
Composite of WGI regulatory quality, the CPIA overall rating, revenue-mobilisation efficiency and budget credibility.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory quality (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 40.0% |
| CPIA overall rating (IDA resource allocation index)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall | {score} | Class E | wb-cpia, wb-wdi | 20.0% |
| Efficiency of revenue mobilisation (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration | {score} | Class E | wb-cpia, wb-wdi, imf-isora | 20.0% |
| Deviation of budget execution from the approved budgetIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation | % | Class B | pefa, national-budget-documents | 20.0% |
Statistical capacity sub-index w 0.5
Composite of the SPI overall score, completeness of birth registration and census recency.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical Performance Indicators overall scoreIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall | {score} | Class B | wb-spi, wb-wdi | 50.0% |
| Completeness of birth registrationIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration | % | Class B | unicef-birth-registration, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
| Years since the last population censusIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census | a | Class A | unsd-census-programme | 25.0% |
05Domain
Governance and institutions
Quality of governance, rule of law, policy and institutional capacity, statistical capacity.
| Sub-domain | Indicators |
|---|---|
| Governance quality | 6 |
| Rule of law | 4 |
| Policy and institutional quality | 6 |
| Statistical capacity | 3 |
| Business environment | 1 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): WB WGI 2025; WB CPIA; WB SPI 2025; WB B-READY.
06Indicators
All 20 governance and institutions indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Voice and accountability (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
| Government effectiveness (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
| Control of corruption (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
| Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Press freedom score (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Rule of law (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law | GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
| Property rights and rule-based governance (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights | GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
| Unsentenced detainees, share of prison populationIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees | GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
| Bribery incidence among firmsIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms | GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
| Regulatory quality (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
| CPIA overall rating (IDA resource allocation index)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
| CPIA public-sector management and institutionsIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
| CPIA transparency, accountability and corruption in the public sectorIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
| Efficiency of revenue mobilisation (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
| Deviation of budget execution from the approved budgetIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
| Statistical Performance Indicators overall scoreIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall | GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
| Completeness of birth registrationIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration | GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
| Years since the last population censusIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census | GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a | COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
| Business environment score (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall | GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY |
07Quote
Governance weakness index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · GOV · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Governance weakness index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
- Previous edition
- —
- Range since 2016
- —
- Coupled composite
- —
- Coupling score S
- —
- Pulse, latest week
- —
- Outlook, 12 months
- —
- Method
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Draws
- 1,000
Governance weakness index, world, by edition
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
Africa54
Americas35
Asia48
Europe44
No movements yet. Changes since the previous edition are listed here from the second edition on, with the indicators that drove them.
08Values
Country values
FIG 5 · Governance weakness index: countries (values when released)
Loading the map
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/gov/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Observation key
nis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Series
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.GS-14Global Policy and institutionsGovernance weakness, state capacity, rule of law, preparedness frameworks and the institutional ability to anticipate and adapt.SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction.SR-10Digital public infrastructureIdentity, payments and data-exchange infrastructure as public goods, and their concentration, cyber and continuity risk.SR-11Information integrity and social cohesionInformation disorder, polarisation, trust and cohesion as amplifiers of every other risk.XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps.XT-10Digital twins and simulationDigital twins and simulation used for risk decisions: model risk, validation and dependency.XT-11Digital identity and trustIdentity, authentication and trust infrastructure: exclusion, fraud, breach and concentration risk.XT-15Biotechnology and biosecurityBiotechnology capability and governance at public-safe level: laboratory biosafety, oversight and detection capacity; no capability information is published.XT-18Climate intervention technologiesCarbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only.XT-19Neurotechnology and human augmentationNeurotechnology and augmentation: safety, privacy, equity and governance risks.XT-20Converging technologiesRisks that emerge where frontier technologies combine (AI with biotechnology, autonomy with cyber, compute with energy) and outrun single-technology governance.
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WGI | 12 |
WB_WDI | 7 |
SDG | 5 |
11Across the Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Across the Nexus
GCRI Registry · GCRI Campaigns · GCRI Agency · GRF Diplomacy · GRF Governance · GRF Information Integrity and Public Trust
12Cite
Cite and reuse
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Governance weakness index (GRX-IDX-GOV), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/governance-weakness/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000124.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.