6 families, 39 hazards
Hazards of the living land and sea surface: vegetation fire, forest stress, land degradation, biodiversity loss and climate-state shifts. Organised by biosphere; families by driving process.
Vegetation and peat fire eco.wildfire
Fire in living or buried fuel: the family separates the weather conditions that make fire possible from the fire itself and from its two worst special cases (buildings in the path, and peat that smoulders for months).
Hot, dry and windy conditions over dry fuels in which any ignition spreads fast and suppression fails.
Also: red flag conditions, fire danger
An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.
Also: bushfire, forest fire, grass fire
A fire spreading between wildland vegetation and buildings, so that homes become fuel and evacuation routes close.
Also: interface fire
A smouldering fire in peat or coal seams that burns for weeks to years, releasing smoke and carbon and resisting suppression.
Also: smouldering fire, coal seam fire
A lasting change in how often, how large and how intensely landscapes burn, beyond what local ecosystems and communities are adapted to.
Also: megafire era, new fire regime
Forest and woodland stress eco.forest
Loss or decline of tree cover, split by cause (clearing, decline, single disturbance, invading pest) because the responses and data differ.
Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.
Also: forest clearing
Widespread tree decline and death from drought, heat, pests or disease.
Also: tree mortality, forest decline
A single event, such as windthrow, ice damage or defoliation, that damages a large share of the trees in a stand or landscape.
Also: windthrow, defoliation
A non-native insect or pathogen spreading through forests and killing or weakening trees.
An eruption of a native tree-killing insect, released by warm winters and drought-stressed trees, that kills forest across whole landscapes and raises fire risk.
Also: bark beetle outbreak, budworm outbreak
Land and wetland degradation eco.land
Long-term loss of the productive or protective function of land and wetlands; the slow end of the domain, where the hazard is cumulative state change rather than an event.
Long-term decline of the productivity and health of land from erosion, nutrient loss, compaction or salting.
Degradation of dryland into desert-like conditions through climate change and unsustainable land use.
Loss of soil organic matter, structure and nutrients that cuts yields and the water the soil can hold.
Also: soil degradation
Accumulation of salts or sodium in soil, from irrigation or seawater, that stunts crops and breaks soil structure.
Drainage, filling or drying of wetlands that removes flood buffering, water filtering and habitat.
Also: wetland degradation
Clearing or dieback of coastal mangroves, which removes shoreline protection, nursery habitat and carbon stores.
Draining or burning of peatland that oxidises stored carbon, sinks the land and raises fire risk.
Covering of fertile soil by buildings and pavement that permanently removes farmland, raises runoff and floods and removes soil carbon and habitat.
Also: land take, impervious surface spread
Gradual fall in soil pH from fertiliser, acid deposition and crop removal that locks up nutrients, releases toxic aluminium and lowers yields.
Also: acid soils
Biodiversity and species stress eco.species
Decline and sudden loss of living populations and the services they provide: reefs, pollinators, fisheries, wild animals and the conflict that follows when wildlife and people compete.
Decline in the variety and abundance of species and habitats that weakens services such as pollination, fisheries and soil formation.
Also: species decline, habitat loss
Corals expelling their algal partners under heat stress, turning white and often dying, with loss of reef fisheries and shore protection.
Also: reef mortality
A fall in pollinating insects and animals that cuts yields of pollinator-dependent crops and wild plant reproduction.
A fish stock cut so far by fishing, warming or habitat loss that it can no longer sustain catches.
Also: stock collapse
A sudden, large die-off of wild animals from disease, toxins, heat, cold or oxygen loss.
Also: die-off
Damage or injury from wild animals entering farms, villages or roads, and the retaliation that follows against them.
Also: crop raiding, predator attacks
A disease spreading across many wild species and continents that wipes out populations, drives extinctions and can carry pathogens to livestock and people.
Also: chytrid fungus, white-nose syndrome, avian influenza in wild birds
Broad fall in insect abundance and biomass from habitat loss, pesticides, light and warming that starves birds and fish and weakens pest control and decomposition.
Also: insect apocalypse, insect biomass loss
Warming shifting the timing of flowering, breeding or migration at different rates, so that species miss the food or pollinators they depend on.
Also: timing mismatch, seasonal desynchronisation
Movement of species towards the poles, uphill or deeper as climate warms, reshuffling fisheries, pests and disease vectors and stranding species with nowhere to go.
Also: species redistribution, poleward shift
A swarm of jellyfish or similar animals that clogs power-plant and desalination intakes, kills farmed fish and closes beaches.
Also: jellyfish swarm
Loss of the defining species, structure and functions of an ecosystem, such as a reef, lake, kelp forest or wetland, beyond the point of natural recovery.
Also: ecological collapse, biodiversity collapse
Climate-state shifts eco.climate-state
Changes of the whole climate system rather than of one place; kept as hazards so that global-risk models can name them as triggers of the regional hazards.
A threshold crossing in a large climate-system component, such as an ocean circulation or a rainforest, that changes regional climate quickly and may not reverse.
Also: tipping point
A drop in global or hemispheric temperature for one to three years after a very large eruption loads the stratosphere with sulphate aerosol.
Also: volcanic winter
Ecosystem regime shifts eco.regime-shift
Ecosystems that flip to a different, often poorer and self-sustaining state when stress passes a threshold, so that removing the stress does not restore them.
Loss of kelp forests to marine heat, grazing urchins or turbid water, replacing them with barren seabed and losing fisheries, carbon and wave shelter.
Also: urchin barrens, kelp loss
Die-off or removal of seagrass meadows from heat, turbidity, nutrients or dredging, losing nursery habitat, sediment stability and stored carbon.
Also: seagrass dieback
A shallow lake switching from clear, plant-rich water to turbid, algae-dominated water once nutrient loading passes a threshold, which then persists even if loading falls.
Also: lake eutrophic flip, shallow lake regime shift
Spread of shrubs and trees into grasslands and savannas through grazing, fire suppression and rising carbon dioxide, cutting forage and water yield.
Also: bush encroachment, shrub invasion of grassland
Loss of saltmarsh, mudflat and beach habitat trapped between rising seas and fixed defences or development, removing natural flood buffers.
Also: intertidal habitat loss, saltmarsh drowning
Loss of key predators, grazers or prey that cascades through a food web, restructuring the ecosystem and the services it supplies.
Also: trophic cascade, defaunation cascade
207 expert relations
Triggers, amplifications, compound pairs and reductions from the Hazard Standard expert model; 67 lead out of this domain into others.
| From | Kind | To | Mechanism | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning strike | trigger | Wildfire | dry-fuel ignition by a strike without much rain | high |
| Derecho | trigger | Large forest disturbance | wide swath of windthrow | high |
| Windstorm | trigger | Large forest disturbance | windthrow of trees | high |
| Windstorm | amplify | Wildfire | wind drives spread and spotting | high |
| Downslope windstorm | amplify | Wildfire | hot, dry, gusty air drives fire spread | high |
| Downslope windstorm | amplify | Wildland-urban interface fire | ember showers ignite structures | high |
| Downslope windstorm | trigger | Wildfire | downed or clashing lines ignite dry vegetation | medium |
| Intense rainfall | reduces | Extreme fire weather | wet fuels and humid air | high |
| Intense rainfall | reduces | Wildfire | wet fuels slow ignition and spread | high |
| Freezing rain | trigger | Large forest disturbance | ice loading breaks branches and trees | high |
| Heatwave | amplify | Extreme fire weather | high temperature dries fuels and lowers humidity | high |
| Heatwave | amplify | Wildfire | dry fuels and strong fire behaviour | high |
| Heatwave | trigger | Mass wildlife mortality | lethal heat stress in wildlife and fish | medium |
| Heatwave | trigger | Forest dieback | heat stress and hydraulic failure of trees | medium |
| Hard freeze | reduces | Forest pest invasion | winter kill of insects | low |
| Atmospheric blocking | amplify | Extreme fire weather | persistent hot, dry conditions | medium |
| Tropical Pacific climate swing | trigger | Coral bleaching | sustained high sea temperature | medium |
| Tropical Pacific climate swing | amplify | Fishery collapse | upwelling collapse and warm water | medium |
| Tropical Pacific climate swing | amplify | Peat and underground fire | drought lowers peat water tables | medium |
| Stratospheric ozone loss episode | amplify | Biodiversity loss | ultraviolet damage to plankton and plants | low |
| Meteorological drought | amplify | Wildfire | dry fuels | high |
| Meteorological drought | amplify | Peat and underground fire | falling peat water table | high |
| Meteorological drought | amplify | Forest dieback | tree hydraulic stress | high |
| Meteorological drought | trigger | Mass wildlife mortality | water and food scarcity for wildlife | medium |
| Meteorological drought | amplify | Desertification | repeated drought degrades dryland | medium |
| Meteorological drought | amplify | Human-wildlife conflict | wildlife enter farms and villages for water and food | medium |
| Hydrological drought | trigger | Mass wildlife mortality | low flow and low oxygen kill fish | medium |
| Flash drought | amplify | Wildfire | fast fuel drying | medium |
| Storm surge | trigger | Soil salinisation and sodicity | salt water deposited on farmland | medium |
| Coastal flood | trigger | Soil salinisation and sodicity | salt deposition on soils | medium |
| Tsunami | trigger | Soil salinisation and sodicity | salt deposition on farmland | medium |
| Sea-level rise | trigger | Wetland loss | coastal wetlands drown or are squeezed | medium |
| Sea-level rise | trigger | Mangrove loss | inundation and coastal squeeze | medium |
| Saltwater intrusion | trigger | Soil salinisation and sodicity | irrigation with, or flooding by, salty water | high |
| Marine heatwave | trigger | Coral bleaching | thermal stress on reef corals | high |
| Marine heatwave | trigger | Mass wildlife mortality | lethal heat stress in marine life | high |
| Marine heatwave | amplify | Fishery collapse | stock stress and range shifts | medium |
| Marine heatwave | amplify | Biodiversity loss | heat stress on marine ecosystems | medium |
| Ocean acidification | amplify | Coral bleaching | weakened calcification lowers reef resilience | medium |
| Ocean acidification | amplify | Fishery collapse | stress on shell-building prey and larvae | low |
| Ocean acidification | amplify | Biodiversity loss | chemical stress on marine calcifiers | medium |
| Marine oxygen depletion | trigger | Mass wildlife mortality | fish and bottom life suffocate | high |
| Marine oxygen depletion | amplify | Fishery collapse | loss of habitat and stock | medium |
| Harmful algal bloom | trigger | Mass wildlife mortality | toxins and oxygen loss kill fish and wildlife | high |
| Snow drought | amplify | Wildfire | earlier drying and a longer fire season | medium |
| Ice-sheet mass loss | trigger | Abrupt climate-system shift | freshwater input may weaken ocean circulation | low |
| Sea-ice loss | trigger | Biodiversity loss | habitat loss for ice-dependent species | medium |
| Lava flow | trigger | Wildfire | contact ignition of vegetation | high |
| Volcanic ballistic projectiles | trigger | Wildfire | hot fragments ignite vegetation | medium |
| Pyroclastic flow | trigger | Wildfire | hot current ignites everything it reaches | high |
| Volcanic gas and aerosol emission | trigger | Volcanic cooling | stratospheric sulphate reflects sunlight | medium |
| Soil erosion | trigger | Soil quality decline | topsoil and organic matter lost | high |
| Soil erosion | amplify | Land degradation | productive capacity declines | high |
| Coastal erosion | trigger | Mangrove loss | shoreline retreat removes the mangrove fringe | low |
| Dune encroachment | amplify | Desertification | moving sand buries farmland | medium |
| Meteorite impact | trigger | Wildfire | thermal radiation and hot ejecta | medium |
| Meteorite impact | trigger | Abrupt climate-system shift | a very large impact loads the atmosphere with dust and soot | low |
| Airburst | trigger | Large forest disturbance | blast flattens forest | medium |
| Extreme fire weather | amplify | Wildfire | low humidity, heat and wind raise spread and intensity | high |
| Extreme fire weather | amplify | Wildland-urban interface fire | embers carried into settlements | high |
| Wildfire | trigger | Smoke plume | combustion emits smoke | high |
| Wildfire | trigger | Wildland-urban interface fire | the fire front reaches settlements | high |
| Wildfire | trigger | Outdoor air pollution episode | smoke raises fine particle levels downwind | high |
| Wildfire | trigger | Black carbon | incomplete combustion emits soot | high |
| Wildfire | trigger | Debris flow | burned slopes shed sediment in the next heavy rain | high |
| Wildfire | trigger | Soil erosion | loss of vegetation and water-repellent soil | high |
| Wildfire | trigger | Flash flood | burned catchments produce rapid runoff | medium |
| Wildfire | trigger | Widespread power outage | lines burned or de-energised as a precaution | high |
| Wildfire | trigger | Biodiversity loss | habitat destroyed | medium |
| Wildfire | trigger | Large forest disturbance | stand-replacing fire | high |
| Wildfire | trigger | Chemical water contamination | ash and retardant wash into supplies | medium |
| Wildfire | trigger | Mass displacement | evacuation and loss of homes | medium |
| Wildfire | amplify | Glacier mass loss | soot darkens snow and ice | low |
| Wildland-urban interface fire | trigger | Building and urban fire | embers and radiant heat ignite buildings | high |
| Wildland-urban interface fire | trigger | Toxic gas release | burning building materials and stores | medium |
| Wildland-urban interface fire | trigger | Disaster and conflict debris | burned buildings leave contaminated debris | high |
| Wildland-urban interface fire | trigger | Emergency-response overload | many structures threatened at once | medium |
| Peat and underground fire | trigger | Outdoor air pollution episode | long smouldering smoke episodes | high |
| Peat and underground fire | trigger | Haze | regional smoke haze | high |
| Peat and underground fire | amplify | Peatland drainage and degradation | carbon store burned away | high |
| Deforestation | trigger | Biodiversity loss | habitat removal and fragmentation | high |
| Deforestation | trigger | Soil erosion | bare soil exposed to rain | high |
| Deforestation | amplify | Slope slide | loss of root reinforcement on slopes | medium |
| Deforestation | amplify | Flash flood | faster runoff from cleared slopes | medium |
| Deforestation | amplify | Zoonotic spillover event | more contact between people, wildlife and livestock | medium |
| Deforestation | amplify | Malaria resurgence | clearing creates breeding habitat at forest edges | low |
| Deforestation | amplify | Wildfire | fire used for clearing escapes; drier fragmented forest | medium |
| Forest dieback | amplify | Wildfire | dead fuel accumulates | medium |
| Forest dieback | amplify | Biodiversity loss | habitat quality falls | medium |
| Large forest disturbance | amplify | Wildfire | fallen trees add fuel | medium |
| Large forest disturbance | amplify | Forest pest invasion | damaged trees host bark beetles | medium |
| Forest pest invasion | trigger | Forest dieback | infestation kills trees | high |
| Land degradation | amplify | Acute food crisis | lower yields and grazing capacity | medium |
| Land degradation | amplify | Dust storm | bare degraded soil is a dust source | medium |
| Land degradation | trigger | Mass displacement | livelihoods on the land fail | low |
| Desertification | amplify | Dust storm | more erodible surface | high |
| Desertification | amplify | Water and resource conflict | competition for shrinking productive land | medium |
| Desertification | trigger | Dune encroachment | loss of vegetation lets sand move | medium |
| Soil salinisation and sodicity | amplify | Acute food crisis | lower crop yields on salt-affected land | medium |
| Wetland loss | amplify | River flood | loss of flood storage | medium |
| Wetland loss | amplify | Biodiversity loss | habitat loss for wetland species | high |
| Mangrove loss | amplify | Storm surge | less wave and surge attenuation | high |
| Mangrove loss | amplify | Coastal erosion | roots no longer hold sediment | high |
| Mangrove loss | amplify | Fishery collapse | nursery habitat lost | medium |
| Peatland drainage and degradation | amplify | Peat and underground fire | drained peat burns more easily | high |
| Peatland drainage and degradation | trigger | Land subsidence | drained peat oxidises and compacts | high |
| Biodiversity loss | amplify | Pollinator decline | fewer floral resources and nesting sites | medium |
| Biodiversity loss | amplify | Zoonotic spillover event | loss of buffer species changes host communities | low |
| Biodiversity loss | amplify | Abrupt climate-system shift | ecosystems lose resilience to change | low |
| Biodiversity loss | amplify | Tick-borne disease surge | fewer predators and fewer low-competence hosts for ticks | low |
| Coral bleaching | amplify | Fishery collapse | reef fish lose habitat | medium |
| Coral bleaching | amplify | Coastal erosion | dead reefs dissipate less wave energy | medium |
| Coral bleaching | amplify | Biodiversity loss | reef species lose their structure | high |
| Pollinator decline | amplify | Acute food crisis | lower yields of pollinated crops | low |
| Fishery collapse | trigger | Acute food crisis | loss of protein and income in fishing communities | medium |
| Fishery collapse | trigger | Commodity price shock | fish supply falls | low |
| Mass wildlife mortality | trigger | Chemical water contamination | decomposing carcasses foul water | medium |
| Human-wildlife conflict | trigger | Rabies outbreak | bites from infected wild animals | low |
| Abrupt climate-system shift | amplify | Sea-level rise | accelerated ice loss and ocean warming | medium |
| Abrupt climate-system shift | amplify | Simultaneous multi-region crop failure | simultaneous shifts in growing conditions | medium |
| Abrupt climate-system shift | amplify | Biodiversity loss | climates move faster than species can follow | medium |
| Volcanic cooling | trigger | Simultaneous multi-region crop failure | short, cold growing seasons | medium |
| Volcanic cooling | amplify | Hard freeze | lower summer and autumn temperatures | medium |
| Volcanic cooling | reduces | Heatwave | less sunlight at the surface | medium |
| Acid deposition | trigger | Forest dieback | soil acidification and leaf damage | medium |
| Acid deposition | amplify | Biodiversity loss | acidified lakes and soils | medium |
| Chemical water contamination | trigger | Mass wildlife mortality | toxic exposure of fish and wildlife | medium |
| Oil spill | trigger | Mass wildlife mortality | oiling of birds and marine life | high |
| Oil spill | trigger | Fishery collapse | fishing grounds closed and stocks harmed | medium |
| Oil spill | trigger | Mangrove loss | oil smothers roots | medium |
| Pesticide exposure | trigger | Pollinator decline | insecticides harm bees and other pollinators | high |
| Marine debris | trigger | Mass wildlife mortality | entanglement and ingestion | medium |
| Waste impoundment failure | trigger | Mass wildlife mortality | toxic slurry kills aquatic life | high |
| Invasive species spread | trigger | Biodiversity loss | native species outcompeted | high |
| Invasive species spread | amplify | Wildfire | invasive grasses add continuous fuel | medium |
| Concurrent heat and drought | amplify | Wildfire | extreme fuel dryness | high |
| Concurrent heat and drought | trigger | Forest dieback | hydraulic failure of trees | high |
| Climate-forcing boundary transgression | trigger | Fire regime shift | longer, hotter fire seasons | high |
| Extinction-rate boundary transgression | amplify | Biodiversity loss | lost species and genes remove recovery capacity | high |
| Deforestation | amplify | Land-system change boundary transgression | local clearing sums into biome-scale loss | high |
| Deforestation | amplify | Emerging arbovirus outbreak | new contact with vectors | medium |
| Deforestation | trigger | Amazon rainforest dieback | clearing reduces moisture recycling | high |
| Nitrogen flow boundary transgression | amplify | Soil acidification | nitrification of fertiliser acidifies soil | high |
| Phosphorus flow boundary transgression | trigger | Lake clear-to-turbid shift | nutrient loading passes the lake threshold | high |
| Novel-entities boundary transgression | amplify | Insect decline | pesticide and chemical burden harms insects | medium |
| Novel-entities boundary transgression | amplify | Biodiversity loss | chemical stress on ecosystems | medium |
| Warm-water coral reef die-off | amplify | Fishery collapse | loss of reef habitat for fish stocks | high |
| Coral bleaching | amplify | Warm-water coral reef die-off | repeated bleaching outpaces recovery | high |
| Coral bleaching | trigger | Ecosystem collapse | repeated bleaching kills reefs | high |
| Arctic Ocean atlantification | amplify | Climate-driven species range shift | Atlantic species move into Arctic waters | high |
| Amazon rainforest dieback | amplify | Wildfire | degraded forest burns more readily | high |
| Wildfire | amplify | Amazon rainforest dieback | repeated fire kills fire-sensitive trees | high |
| Wildfire | trigger | Fire-generated thunderstorm | intense fire heat drives deep convection | high |
| Wildfire | trigger | Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage | fire reaches historic landscapes and buildings | medium |
| Wildfire | trigger | Carbon removal reversal | offset forests burn | high |
| Native forest insect outbreak | amplify | Boreal forest southern dieback | beetle-killed stands do not regenerate in warmer climate | medium |
| Native forest insect outbreak | amplify | Wildfire | dead trees add fuel | medium |
| Sahel vegetation regime shift | amplify | Desertification | vegetation loss reinforces drying | medium |
| Permafrost carbon release | amplify | Abrupt climate-system shift | added greenhouse gases speed warming | medium |
| Soil carbon respiration feedback | amplify | Soil quality decline | loss of organic matter | medium |
47 more relations are in the Hazard Standard dataset.
Risk classes in this domain
Risk classes are Hazard Standard tags with published criteria; a tag is not a severity value.
Global risk
A hazard is global when its occurrence, its consequences or its causal chain cross national borders and act at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can fully assess, prevent or absorb it.
Risk type9 hazardsPlanetary risk
A hazard is planetary when it concerns the stability of an Earth-system process: it pressures a planetary boundary, or it is, or directly drives, a tipping element whose change of state would alter the Earth system as a whole.
Risk type3 hazardsCatastrophic risk
A hazard is catastrophic when at least one plausible scenario for it would cause global catastrophe: a very large loss of life, the crippling of global systems, or a civilisational setback that would take generations to recover from.
Risk type4 hazardsEmerging risk
A hazard is emerging when it is new, or is changing fast in nature, scale, likelihood or reach, and the evidence base for assessing it is still thin or immature.
Risk type1 hazardsExponential risk
A hazard is exponential when its growth or diffusion is self-accelerating, through compounding technology capability, contagion, network effects or reinforcing feedback, so that its scale can outrun linear planning and response.
Risk typePlatforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms, standards, learning and working groups across GCRI, GRF and GRA for the systems these hazards act on.