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Le Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · SR-14 · Strategic systems series

Risques catastrophiques mondiaux et risques extrêmes

Risques de faible probabilité et à fort impact et risques catastrophiques mondiaux : météorologie spatiale extrême, super-éruptions, pandémies d’origine humaine et naturelle, défaillances nucléaires et des technologies de pointe, effondrements composés.

Construction Indicators Tail
Page GRX-SER-SR-14Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports SR-14 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indices de domaine

1

Exposition à la météorologie de l'espace

Indicateurs

156

5 index domains

Hazard families

56

Space and near-Earth · Solid Earth · Health and biosecurity.

Méthodes

100

Catastrophe risk · Networks, dependency and systemic risk.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
indices de domaine
156
indicators in scope
6
domaines d'aléas
4
client groups

01Périmètre

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which tail risks deserve standing monitoring?
  2. How do tail events couple into systemic collapse?
  3. Which countries carry the largest share of tail exposure?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Global catastrophic and tail risk index is built

Graph5 nodes
Graphe
01Indices de domaine
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Liste
  1. Exposition à la météorologie de l'espace

    Domain index · IDX · SPC
    0–10 index of space-weather exposure as the product of the space-weather hazard and space-service dependence sub-indices; mostly modelled and expert inputs, so its grade is capped.
  2. Global catastrophic and tail risk index

    Series index · SERIES · SR-14
    Risques de faible probabilité et à fort impact et risques catastrophiques mondiaux : météorologie spatiale extrême, super-éruptions, pandémies d’origine humaine et naturelle, défaillances nucléaires et des technologies de pointe, effondrements composés.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Non exécutéEn coursTerminé
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · SR-14 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Global catastrophic and tail risk index, world
–
Les valeurs sont publiées avec l'édition ; l'intervalle, la classe et la variation apparaissent ici.
Indice Valeur Variation Variation % Intervalle à 90 % Classe · probabilité Tendance Plage
Exposition à la météorologie de l'espaceNXS-GRX · SPC – – – – –

Domains read: Space environment, Hazard and exposure, Health, Technology and frontier, Conflict and security.

04Indicateurs

156 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
HAZ · 53HLT · 31CON · 19TEC · 8SPC · 6
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicateur Domaine Sub-domain Composant Unité Niveaux Crosswalks
Coût budgétaire annuel attendu des catastrophes, part du PIBIND.FIS.contingent.disaster_fiscal_cost.gdp FIS Contingent liabilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
Déficit de protection contre les catastrophes naturellesIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap FIN Non-bank financial intermediation vulnerability % REGION, COUNTRY
Prêts bancaires exposés à un risque physique climatique élevéIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Dépendance nette aux importations de minerais critiquesIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Commerce maritime exposé aux points d'étranglement maritimesIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Évolution des jours très chauds (35 °C ou plus)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
Élévation relative projetée du niveau de la merIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise CLI Scenario projections hazard m COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Population sous le futur niveau de crue côtière de période de retour 100 ans, partIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share CLI Scenario projections exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Population exposée à deux aléas majeurs ou plus, partIND.HAZ.multi.multi_hazard_exposure.share HAZ Multi-hazard exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID INFORM HA.NAT
Perte annuelle moyenne multi-aléas, part du PIBIND.HAZ.multi.aal.gdp HAZ Multi-hazard impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO
Perte annuelle moyenne multi-aléas, part du stock de capital produitIND.HAZ.multi.aal.capital_stock HAZ Multi-hazard impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO
Sinistre maximal probable pour une période de retour de 250 ans, part du PIBIND.HAZ.multi.pml_rp250.gdp HAZ Multi-hazard impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO
Accélération maximale du sol pour une période de retour de 475 ansIND.HAZ.seismic.pga_rp475 HAZ Seismic and volcanic hazard [g] COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 GH0101 INFORM HA.NAT.EQ
Personnes exposées à de fortes secousses sismiques, moyenne annuelleIND.HAZ.seismic.eq_population_exposed HAZ Seismic and volcanic exposure {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID INFORM EX_EQ_MMI8
Personnes exposées à de fortes secousses sismiques, part de la populationIND.HAZ.seismic.eq_population_exposed.share HAZ Seismic and volcanic exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY
Perte annuelle moyenne due aux séismes, part du PIBIND.HAZ.seismic.eq_aal.gdp HAZ Seismic and volcanic impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO
Population à moins de 30 km d'un volcan holocèneIND.HAZ.seismic.volcano_population_30km HAZ Seismic and volcanic exposure {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY UNDRR_HIPS_2025 GH0203
Probabilité de retombées de cendres volcaniques dommageables en 100 ansIND.HAZ.seismic.ash_fall_probability HAZ Seismic and volcanic hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 GH0202 EMDAT nat-geo-vol-ash
Niveau marin extrême en eau calme pour une période de retour de 100 ansIND.HAZ.coastal.extreme_sea_level_rp100 HAZ Coastal and sea level hazard m COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0703 EMDAT nat-met-sto-sur
Population en zone inondable côtière de période de retour 100 ans, partIND.HAZ.coastal.coastal_flood_population_exposed.share HAZ Coastal and sea level exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY INFORM EX_CFL UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0601
Population à moins de 5 m d'altitude, partIND.HAZ.coastal.low_elevation_population.share HAZ Coastal and sea level exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Hauteur maximale d'inondation par tsunami pour une période de retour de 500 ansIND.HAZ.coastal.tsunami_inundation_rp500 HAZ Coastal and sea level hazard m COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0705 INFORM HA.NAT.TS
Population exposée aux tsunamis, partIND.HAZ.coastal.tsunami_population_exposed.share HAZ Coastal and sea level exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY INFORM EX_TS EMDAT nat-geo-ear-tsu
Fluvial flood depth at 100-year return periodIND.HAZ.flood.river_flood_depth_rp100 HAZ Flood hazard m ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0604 EMDAT nat-hyd-flo-riv
Pluvial and flash flood depth at 100-year return periodIND.HAZ.flood.pluvial_flood_depth_rp100 HAZ Flood hazard m ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0603 UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0606 EMDAT nat-hyd-flo-fla
Personnes exposées aux crues fluviales, moyenne annuelleIND.HAZ.flood.flood_population_exposed HAZ Flood exposure {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY INFORM EX_FL INFORM HA.NAT.FL
Personnes exposées aux crues fluviales, part de la populationIND.HAZ.flood.flood_population_exposed.share HAZ Flood exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY
Norme de conception de la protection contre les inondationsIND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard HAZ Flood coping capacity a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Perte annuelle moyenne due aux crues fluviales, part du PIBIND.HAZ.flood.flood_aal.gdp HAZ Flood impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO
Vitesse du vent des cyclones tropicaux pour une période de retour de 100 ansIND.HAZ.storm.tc_wind_rp100 HAZ Tropical and severe storms hazard m/s COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0309 INFORM HA.NAT.TC
Probabilité annuelle de vents cycloniques de catégorie 1 ou plusIND.HAZ.storm.tc_cat1_probability HAZ Tropical and severe storms hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE
Personnes exposées à des vents cycloniques de catégorie 1, moyenne annuelleIND.HAZ.storm.tc_population_exposed HAZ Tropical and severe storms exposure {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY INFORM EX_TC_SS1
Personnes exposées à des vents cycloniques de catégorie 1, part de la populationIND.HAZ.storm.tc_population_exposed.share HAZ Tropical and severe storms exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY
Perte annuelle moyenne due aux cyclones tropicaux, part du PIBIND.HAZ.storm.tc_aal.gdp HAZ Tropical and severe storms impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO
Jours de grosse grêle par anIND.HAZ.storm.large_hail_days HAZ Tropical and severe storms hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0404 EMDAT nat-met-sto-hai
Jours aux conditions propices aux orages violentsIND.HAZ.storm.severe_convective_days HAZ Tropical and severe storms hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0103 EMDAT nat-met-sto-sev
Fréquence des sécheresses météorologiques sévèresIND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency HAZ Sécheresse hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR
Fréquence du stress de sécheresse agricoleIND.HAZ.drought.agricultural_stress_frequency HAZ Sécheresse hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID INFORM ASI
Personnes touchées par la sécheresse, part annuelle moyenneIND.HAZ.drought.drought_affected.share HAZ Sécheresse impact % COUNTRY INFORM AFF_DR EMDAT nat-cli-dro-dro
Jours de chaleur humide dangereuse par anIND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days HAZ Extreme heat hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501
Épisodes d'exposition aux vagues de chaleur par personneIND.HAZ.heat.heatwave_person_days HAZ Extreme heat exposure d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY
Population exposée à la chaleur extrême, partIND.HAZ.heat.heat_population_exposed.share HAZ Extreme heat exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY
Jours de conditions météorologiques extrêmes propices aux incendies par anIND.HAZ.wildfire.extreme_fire_weather_days HAZ Feux de forêt hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Surface brûlée annuelle, part de la superficie terrestreIND.HAZ.wildfire.burned_area.share HAZ Feux de forêt hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0205 EMDAT nat-cli-wil-wil
Population à l'interface forêt-habitat, partIND.HAZ.wildfire.wui_population.share HAZ Feux de forêt exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY
Population en zones de forte susceptibilité aux glissements de terrain, partIND.HAZ.landslide.landslide_susceptible_population.share HAZ Landslide exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 GH0300
Décès dus aux glissements de terrain pour 100,000, moyenne annuelleIND.HAZ.landslide.fatal_landslide_rate HAZ Landslide impact /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1 EMDAT nat-hyd-mmw-lan
Population à proximité de sites industriels à aléas majeurs, partIND.HAZ.technological.major_hazard_site_population.share HAZ Technologique exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY UNDRR_HIPS_2025 TL0304 UNDRR_HIPS_2025 TL0309
Population à moins de 30 km d'un réacteur nucléaire en serviceIND.HAZ.technological.nuclear_population_30km HAZ Technologique exposure {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY UNDRR_HIPS_2025 TL0208
Décès dus aux accidents industriels pour 100,000, moyenne annuelleIND.HAZ.technological.industrial_accident_deaths HAZ Technologique impact /10*5 COUNTRY EMDAT tec-ind-ind-ind
Surface bâtieIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area HAZ Exposition context km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Stock de capital produitIND.HAZ.exposure.capital_stock HAZ Exposition context [USD] COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO
Surface bâtie en zones d'aléa élevéIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed HAZ Exposition exposure km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Surface bâtie en zones d'aléa élevé, partIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed.share HAZ Exposition exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY
PIB généré en zones d'aléa élevé, partIND.HAZ.exposure.gdp_exposed.share HAZ Exposition exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY
Décès et personnes disparues dus aux catastrophes pour 100,000IND.HAZ.loss.deaths_missing_rate HAZ Losses and impacts impact /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI A-1 SDG 1.5.1
Personnes directement touchées par des catastrophes pour 100,000IND.HAZ.loss.directly_affected_rate HAZ Losses and impacts impact /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI B-1 SDG 1.5.1
Pertes économiques directes dues aux catastrophes, part du PIBIND.HAZ.loss.direct_economic_loss.gdp HAZ Losses and impacts impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-1 SDG 1.5.2
Décès enregistrés dus aux catastrophes pour 100,000, moyenne sur 30 ansIND.HAZ.loss.recorded_disaster_deaths HAZ Losses and impacts impact /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1 EMDAT Total Deaths
Personnes touchées par des catastrophes enregistrées pour 100,000, moyenne sur 30 ansIND.HAZ.loss.recorded_disaster_affected HAZ Losses and impacts impact /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1 EMDAT Total Affected
Dommages enregistrés dus aux catastrophes, part du PIB, moyenne sur 30 ansIND.HAZ.loss.recorded_disaster_damage.gdp HAZ Losses and impacts impact % COUNTRY EMDAT Total Damage, Adjusted ('000 US$)
Exposition aux PM2.5, moyenne pondérée par la populationIND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure ENV Qualité de l'air hazard ug/m3 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD
Population exposée au-delà de la valeur guide de l'OMS pour les PM2.5, partIND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share ENV Qualité de l'air exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS
Exposition saisonnière aux pics d'ozoneIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure ENV Qualité de l'air hazard [ppb] COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Population utilisant des services d'eau potable gérés en toute sécuritéIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD
Population utilisant au moins des services d'eau potable de baseIND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS
Population utilisant des services d'assainissement gérés en toute sécuritéIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD
Population disposant d'installations de base pour le lavage des mainsIND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1
Taux de dépendance aux ressources en eau renouvelables extérieuresIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Severe geomagnetic storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.severe_geomagnetic_storm_days SPC Météorologie spatiale hazard d/a GLOBAL UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0101 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-geo
Amplitude du champ géoélectrique pour une période de retour de 100 ansIND.SPC.weather.geoelectric_field_rp100 SPC Météorologie spatiale hazard V/km COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Strong solar radiation storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.radiation_storm_days SPC Météorologie spatiale hazard d/a GLOBAL UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0104 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-ene
PIB des activités dépendantes du GNSS, partIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Services critiques reposant sur des satellites sans secours, partIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Réseau haute tension en zones d'aléa géoélectrique élevé, partIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Taux de mortalité des moins de cinq ansIND.HLT.burden.under5_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.DYN.MORT SDG 3.2.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000007
Taux de mortalité néonataleIND.HLT.burden.neonatal_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.DYN.NMRT SDG 3.2.2
Taux de mortalité maternelleIND.HLT.burden.maternal_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability /10*5 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.MMRT SDG 3.1.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000026
Espérance de vie à la naissanceIND.HLT.burden.life_expectancy HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability a COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.DYN.LE00.IN WHO_GHO WHOSIS_000001
Mortalité prématurée due aux principales maladies non transmissiblesIND.HLT.burden.ncd_premature_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS SDG 3.4.1 WHO_GHO NCDMORT3070
Incidence de la tuberculoseIND.HLT.burden.tb_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*5 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.TBS.INCD SDG 3.3.2 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000020
Incidence du paludismeIND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA
Incidence du VIHIND.HLT.burden.hiv_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.TL.P3 SDG 3.3.1 WHO_GHO SDGHIV WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.ZS
Médecins pour 1,000 habitantsIND.HLT.system.physician_density HLT Health system capacity coping capacity /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MED.PHYS.ZS WHO_GHO HWF_0001 SDG 3.c.1
Infirmiers et sages-femmes pour 1,000 habitantsIND.HLT.system.nurse_midwife_density HLT Health system capacity coping capacity /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MED.NUMW.P3 WHO_GHO HWF_0006 SDG 3.c.1
Lits d'hôpital pour 1,000 habitantsIND.HLT.system.hospital_beds HLT Health system capacity coping capacity /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MED.BEDS.ZS WHO_GHO WHS6_102
Indice de couverture des services de la CSUIND.HLT.system.uhc_service_coverage HLT Health system capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SDG 3.8.1 WHO_GHO UHC_INDEX_REPORTED WB_WDI SH.UHC.SRVS.CV.XD
Population confrontée à des dépenses de santé directes catastrophiquesIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS
Dépenses directes, part des dépenses courantes de santéIND.HLT.system.oop_share HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.XPD.OOPC.CH.ZS WHO_GHO GHED_OOPSCHE_SHA2011
Dépenses courantes de santé, part du PIBIND.HLT.system.health_expenditure.gdp HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS
Couverture vaccinale DTC3IND.HLT.system.dtp3_coverage HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WHO_GHO WHS4_100 WB_WDI SH.IMM.IDPT SDG 3.b.1
Couverture vaccinale de la deuxième dose contre la rougeoleIND.HLT.system.mcv2_coverage HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WHO_GHO MCV2 WB_WDI SH.IMM.MEA2 SDG 3.b.1
Naissances assistées par du personnel de santé qualifiéIND.HLT.system.skilled_birth_attendance HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.BRTC.ZS SDG 3.1.2
Temps de trajet jusqu'à l'établissement de santé le plus procheIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time HLT Health system capacity vulnerability min COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Score des capacités fondamentales du RSI (SPAR)IND.HLT.security.spar_capacity HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SDG 3.d.1 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2021 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2018
Capacité de laboratoire du RSI (SPAR C4)IND.HLT.security.spar_laboratory HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C4 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C04 JEE D1
Capacité de surveillance du RSI (SPAR C5)IND.HLT.security.spar_surveillance HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C5 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C05 JEE D2
Capacité de gestion des urgences sanitaires du RSI (SPAR C7)IND.HLT.security.spar_emergency_management HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C7 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C07 JEE R1
Capacité de communication sur les risques du RSI (SPAR C10)IND.HLT.security.spar_risk_communication HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C10 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C10 JEE R5
Fréquence des événements épidémiquesIND.HLT.epidemic.outbreak_event_frequency HLT Epidemic and outbreak hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1
Cas de choléra signalés, pour 100,000 habitantsIND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k HLT Epidemic and outbreak hazard /10*5 COUNTRY WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001
Infections du sang dues au SARMIND.HLT.amr.mrsa_bloodstream HLT Antimicrobial resistance hazard % COUNTRY WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_MRSA SDG 3.d.2
Infections du sang dues à E. coli résistant aux céphalosporines de troisième générationIND.HLT.amr.ecoli_3gc_bloodstream HLT Antimicrobial resistance hazard % COUNTRY WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_ECOLI SDG 3.d.2
Retard de croissance chez les enfants de moins de cinq ansIND.HLT.nutrition.stunting HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025
Émaciation chez les enfants de moins de cinq ansIND.HLT.nutrition.wasting HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026
Anémie chez les femmes en âge de procréerIND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043
Jeunes sans emploi, ni éducation, ni formationIND.SOC.protection.youth_neet SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT
Population âgée de 65 ans et plus, part du totalIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
Réfugiés par pays d'origineIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR
Réfugiés par pays d'origine, pour 100,000 habitantsIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY SDG 10.7.4
Personnes déplacées internes, conflits et violence (stock)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP
Personnes déplacées internes, catastrophes (stock)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disaster DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC disaster_total_displacement
Personnes déplacées internes, pour 100,000 habitantsIND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY
Nouveaux déplacements internes, conflits et violenceIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict DEM Forced displacement impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV
Nouveaux déplacements internes, catastrophesIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disaster DEM Forced displacement impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC disaster_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWDS
Nouveaux déplacements internes, pour 100,000 habitantsIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY
Décès signalés dus à la violence politique organiséeIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED fatalities
Décès liés aux conflits pour 100,000 habitantsIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k CON Organised violence hazard /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 SDG 16.1.2
Décès liés aux combats (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths CON Organised violence hazard {persons} COUNTRY WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH
Événements de violence politiqueIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED Political violence
Événements de conflit arméIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence
Diffusion géographique des conflitsIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion CON Organised violence exposure % COUNTRY ACLED Diffusion
Fragmentation des acteurs armésIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY ACLED Fragmentation
Taux d'homicides volontairesIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate CON Organised violence hazard /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1
Dépenses militaires, part du PIBIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
Effectifs des forces armées, part de la population activeIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS
Événements visant des civilsIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events CON Civilian harm hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians
Décès de civils dus à la violence ciblée, pour 100,000 habitantsIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k CON Civilian harm impact /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1 ACLED Danger
Attaques contre les soins de santéIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care CON Civilian harm impact 1 COUNTRY
Victimes des mines terrestres et des restes explosifs de guerreIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties CON Civilian harm impact {persons} COUNTRY
Émeutes et manifestations violentesIND.CON.peace.riot_events CON Peacefulness hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ACLED Riots
Score global du Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score CON Peacefulness vulnerability {score} COUNTRY GPI Overall Score
Score du domaine conflits en cours du Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict CON Peacefulness hazard {score} COUNTRY GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict
Classification des États de fragilité de l'OCDEIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class CON Fragility vulnerability {class} COUNTRY OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts
Statut de situation de fragilité et de conflit de la Banque mondialeIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status CON Fragility vulnerability {bool} COUNTRY
Stabilité politique et absence de violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Population utilisant principalement des combustibles et technologies de cuisson propresIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking ENE Accès vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
Concentration des fournisseurs de minerais critiques importésIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Réseau routier et ferroviaire en zones d'aléa élevé, partIND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share INF Transport exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Installations critiques disposant d'une alimentation de secours de 72 heuresIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power INF Utilities coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Actifs d'approvisionnement en eau en zones d'aléa élevé, partIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Actifs de production et de réseau électriques en zones d'aléa élevé, partIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Installations vitales en zones d'aléa élevé, partIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Unités d'infrastructures critiques endommagées ou détruites par des catastrophesIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2
Établissements de santé endommagés ou détruits par des catastrophesIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-2
Pertes économiques directes subies par les infrastructures critiques, part du PIBIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp INF Service disruption impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-5
Dépense intérieure brute de R&D, part du PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Chercheurs par million d'habitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Exportations de haute technologie, part des exportations de produits manufacturésIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentration des fournisseurs de semi-conducteurs importésIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs d'infrastructure cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacité de calcul pour l'IA sous contrôle étranger ou d'un fournisseur uniqueIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Intelligence artificielle vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs de modèles de fondationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Intelligence artificielle vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervision de la biosûreté et de la biosécurité des laboratoires de haut confinementIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnologie coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Population à moins de 15 minutes des services d'urgenceIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
05Aléas

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
SolidPlanetarySantéFrontièreSystémique402HAZARDS
6 hazard domains (inner ring) and 56 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Famille Domaine Aléas Count
Solar-terrestrial storms Espace et environnement proche de la Terre Geomagnetic storm, Solar flare radio blackout, Solar radiation storm, Ionospheric disturbance, Geomagnetically induced current, Satellite space-environment anomaly, Thermospheric drag surge, Radiation-belt electron enhancement … 9
Impacts and orbital hazards Espace et environnement proche de la Terre Near-Earth object approach, Meteorite impact, Airburst, Space debris, Orbital collision cascade, Uncontrolled re-entry, Spaceflight accident, Meteoroid stream encounter 8
Fault shaking and rupture Terre solide Earthquake, Induced earthquake, Aftershock sequence, Fault surface rupture, Soil liquefaction, Ground fissure, Earthquake swarm 7
Eruption products and unrest Terre solide Volcanic unrest, Lava flow, Volcanic ash fall, Volcanic ash cloud, Volcanic ballistic projectiles, Pyroclastic flow, Lahar, Volcanic gas and aerosol emission … 12
Slope failure and mass movement Terre solide Rockfall, Topple, Slope slide, Lateral spread, Debris flow, Earthflow and mudflow, Rock avalanche, Submarine landslide … 9
Ground deformation and subsidence Terre solide Land subsidence, Crustal uplift, Sinkhole, Shrink-swell soil movement, Soft-soil settlement, Ground gas seepage, Mining-induced subsidence 7
Erosion and sediment movement Terre solide Soil erosion, River bank erosion, Coastal erosion, Dune encroachment, Reservoir and channel siltation, River avulsion, Delta sediment starvation 7
Seabed and deep-sea hazards Terre solide Turbidity current, Submarine volcanic eruption, Seabed gas escape, Pumice raft, Deep-sea mining disturbance 5
Airborne and respiratory infection Santé et biosécurité Respiratory pandemic, Seasonal influenza epidemic, Zoonotic influenza spillover, Coronavirus outbreak, Tuberculosis surge, Bacterial meningitis outbreak 6
Vaccine-preventable outbreaks Santé et biosécurité Measles outbreak, Polio outbreak, Diphtheria and whooping cough outbreak, Other vaccine-preventable outbreak 4
Faecal-oral and foodborne infection Santé et biosécurité Cholera outbreak, Typhoid and paratyphoid fever, Shigellosis and dysentery outbreak, Viral diarrhoea outbreak, Faecal-oral hepatitis outbreak, Foodborne illness outbreak, Waterborne disease outbreak 7
Vector-borne infection Santé et biosécurité Dengue epidemic, Chikungunya and Zika outbreak, Yellow fever outbreak, West Nile and Culex-borne virus outbreak, Malaria resurgence, Plague outbreak, Trypanosomiasis outbreak, Tick-borne disease surge … 10
Haemorrhagic fever Santé et biosécurité Ebola and Marburg outbreak, Lassa fever outbreak, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever outbreak 3
Blood-borne and sexually transmitted infection Santé et biosécurité HIV epidemic, Chronic viral hepatitis B and C burden, Sexually transmitted infection resurgence 3
Animal-to-human spillover Santé et biosécurité Zoonotic spillover event, Anthrax outbreak, Brucellosis outbreak, Rabies outbreak, Leptospirosis outbreak, Mpox outbreak, Rift Valley fever outbreak, Nipah and henipavirus outbreak 8
Rare and persistent human infections Santé et biosécurité Prion disease cluster, Smallpox reintroduction 2
Livestock and aquaculture epizootics Santé et biosécurité Swine fever epizootic, Foot-and-mouth epizootic, Ruminant respiratory epizootic, Vector-borne livestock disease, Poultry epizootic, Screwworm infestation, Aquaculture disease outbreak, Livestock disease outbreak 8
Plant disease and pests Santé et biosécurité Bacterial and fungal crop disease, Plant virus epidemic, Crop insect pest outbreak, Locust swarm, Invasive species spread 5
Systemic biological risks Santé et biosécurité Antimicrobial resistance, Deliberate or accidental biological-agent release 2
Environmental and product harm to people Santé et biosécurité Snakebite envenoming, Substandard and falsified medicines, Adulterated alcohol poisoning, Overdose epidemic 4
Climate-sensitive illness Santé et biosécurité Heat-related illness surge, Cold-related illness surge, Disease vector range expansion, Aeroallergen season intensification, Warm-water bacterial infection 5
Drug and insecticide resistance by pathogen class Santé et biosécurité Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spread, Antiviral drug resistance, Antimalarial and antiparasitic drug resistance, Antifungal drug resistance, Insecticide resistance in disease vectors, Antimicrobial development and supply failure 6
Emerging and unknown infection threats Santé et biosécurité Unknown future pathogen emergence, Emerging fungal pathogen, Endemic fungal disease range expansion, Healthcare-associated infection outbreak, Undiagnosed illness cluster 5
Maternal, newborn and child health emergencies Santé et biosécurité Maternal mortality rise, Newborn mortality surge, Preterm and low birthweight birth rise, Childhood immunisation coverage collapse, Infant feeding disruption, Reproductive health service disruption 6
Mental health crises Santé et biosécurité Population mental distress surge, Post-disaster traumatic stress, Suicide rate rise, Youth mental health crisis, Climate-related psychological distress, Social isolation and loneliness epidemic, Mass psychogenic illness outbreak, Gambling harm surge 8
Noncommunicable disease surges Santé et biosécurité Cardiovascular disease surge, Diabetes epidemic, Obesity epidemic, Cancer burden rise, Chronic respiratory disease burden, Chronic kidney disease surge, Dementia burden growth, Post-infection chronic illness … 11
Malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency Santé et biosécurité Acute malnutrition surge, Chronic undernutrition and stunting, Micronutrient deficiency, Nutritional deficiency disease outbreak, Unhealthy diet transition, Crop nutrient decline 6
Occupational disease and injury Santé et biosécurité Occupational lung disease, Occupational heat strain, Occupational cancer, Occupational chemical poisoning, Workplace injury burden, Work-related psychosocial harm 6
Health system capacity failure Santé et biosécurité Health workforce shortage, Health worker industrial action, Health financing collapse, Catastrophic out-of-pocket health spending, Vaccine confidence collapse, Essential health service disruption, Disease surveillance failure, Health facility loss of function … 9
AI system failure and misalignment Technologies de pointe et exponentielles AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Technologies de pointe et exponentielles AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnologie et biologie de synthèse Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Technologies d’intervention climatique Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Technologies de pointe et exponentielles 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Supply-chain and flow disruption Événements systémiques et composés Supply-chain disruption, Chokepoint blockage, Port or hub closure, Fuel and energy supply shock, Food supply-chain breakdown, Trade restriction or embargo, Single-source supplier failure, Cold-chain failure … 17
Cascading failure Événements systémiques et composés Interdependent infrastructure cascade, Blackout-driven service cascade, Water-energy-food cascade, Financial contagion, Health-system overload, Emergency-response overload, Digital dependency cascade, Lifeline restoration deadlock … 10
Compound and multi-hazard events Événements systémiques et composés Compound flooding, Concurrent heat and drought, Simultaneous multi-region crop failure, Cold-wave energy crunch, Heat-driven grid stress, Natech event, Successive hazards, Disaster during an epidemic … 9
Structural fragility of interconnected systems Événements systémiques et composés Critical single point of failure, Critical service provider concentration, Common-mode failure, Technology monoculture, Lean inventory fragility, Geographic clustering of critical production, Unmapped critical dependency, Tightly coupled automated systems … 11
Planetary boundary transgressions Limites planétaires et points de bascule du système Terre Climate-forcing boundary transgression, Global temperature overshoot, Global warming acceleration, Atmospheric methane surge, Extinction-rate boundary transgression, Biosphere functional integrity loss, Land-system change boundary transgression, Blue-water flow disturbance … 14
Ice tipping elements Limites planétaires et points de bascule du système Terre Greenland ice sheet tipping, West Antarctic ice sheet collapse, East Antarctic subglacial basin retreat, Arctic winter sea-ice collapse, Antarctic sea-ice regime shift, Regional glacier extinction 6
Ocean circulation and marine tipping Limites planétaires et points de bascule du système Terre Atlantic overturning weakening, Atlantic overturning collapse, Subpolar gyre convection collapse, Antarctic overturning slowdown, Arctic Ocean atlantification, Warm-water coral reef die-off, Marine methane hydrate destabilisation 7
Biome tipping elements Limites planétaires et points de bascule du système Terre Amazon rainforest dieback, Boreal forest southern dieback, Boreal forest northern advance, Tropical forest carbon-sink reversal, Sahel vegetation regime shift 5
Carbon-cycle feedbacks Limites planétaires et points de bascule du système Terre Permafrost carbon release, Abrupt permafrost thaw emission, Subsea permafrost greenhouse gas release, Wetland methane feedback, Land carbon sink weakening, Ocean carbon sink weakening, Soil carbon respiration feedback 7
Atmospheric circulation and monsoon tipping Limites planétaires et points de bascule du système Terre South Asian monsoon regime shift, West African monsoon regime shift, South American monsoon weakening, East Asian monsoon regime shift, Tropical belt widening, Tropical Pacific regime change, Jet-stream regime change, Marine stratocumulus deck breakup … 9
Deep-time and cosmic catastrophes Limites planétaires et points de bascule du système Terre Supereruption, Large-magnitude explosive eruption, Flood-basalt eruption episode, Impact winter, Comet shower, Solar superflare, Gamma-ray burst, Nearby supernova … 10
06Queue

The severe end of the distribution

FIG 5 · Explorer: exceedance, return-period loss and the protection gap
Frequency and severity
1.2
20
1.4
One risk-transfer layer
60
240
–
s’exécute dans votre navigateur

Explorer: 20,000 simulated years from your frequency and severity settings; the exceedance curve, average annual loss, 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 annual losses, expected shortfall, and how one layer splits loss into retained, transferred and gap. Units are yours; nothing here is a modelled loss for any place.
07Méthodes

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

23 methods

Risque de catastrophe

Stochastic Event Catalogue · Historical Event Catalogue · Event Footprint · Secondary Uncertainty · Loss Amplification · Financial Terms · Event Loss Table …

21 methods

Réseaux, dépendances et risque systémique

Dependency Graph · Centrality · Critical Node · Cascading Failure · Contagion · Percolation · Interdependency …

56 methods

Cyber, IA et technologies de pointe

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

08Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

09Rapports

Rapports Nexus

Edition code
SR-14
Edition status
prévue
Objet
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Rapports Nexus

10Citer

Citer et réutiliser

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Global catastrophic and tail risk series (GRX-SER-SR-14), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-14/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000087.
Series key
grix:SER.SR-14:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.SPC.weather.space_weather_exposure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Profils de pays Toutes les séries

Statut

La méthodologie, la structure et les définitions de The Global Risks Index constituent un projet de travail préparatoire (2026), diffusé pour examen et commentaires et non pour mise en œuvre. Aucune valeur n'apparaît avant la publication d'une édition à partir d'une coupe de données probantes encadrée ; les valeurs comportent alors des intervalles, des classes, des sources et leur voie de correction. Les simulateurs appliquent les méthodes publiées à des nombres que vous choisissez et n'affichent jamais de valeur NXS-GRX.

Ce que NXS-GRX n'est pas

NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques. Ce n'est pas une notation de crédit ou ESG et il n'utilise aucune échelle de notation ; ce n'est pas un indice de référence pour des instruments financiers, ni une statistique officielle, ni une alerte d'urgence ou une classification officielle, ni un conseil. Il ne doit pas servir à évaluer des personnes physiques. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, jamais des classements de pays ou de personnes.

Institutions et sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Chaque valeur porte l'attribution de ses sources, qui conservent leurs propres licences. Les noms externes ne sont cités qu'à des fins d'interopérabilité. Les textes rédigés par Nexus sont destinés à être publiés sous licence CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.