The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-FIS · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility
Indice de risque budgétaire et de dette publique
Expert-weighted geometric mean of the six fiscal sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10 and floored at 0.1 before aggregation.
Page GRX-IDX-FISEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.FIS.debt.fiscal_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
geometric
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
Incertitude
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
Structure
7 components
27 leaf indicators
Couverture
71% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
27
leaf indicators
7
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
5
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
One domain view of sovereign fiscal risk that partly penalises weakness in any pillar; the sub-indices stay visible beside it. It is not a debt-distress rating and never replaces the published LIC-DSF or SRDSF signals.
computation
How Fiscal and public debt risk is computedGraph37 nodes
Graphe
01Indicateurs
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilier
05Composite
100%
Liste
- Dette brute des administrations publiques, part du PIBIndicator · IND · %All liabilities of general government that require future payment of interest or principal (debt securities, loans, other accounts payable and similar instruments), at nominal or face value, as a percentage of GDP.
- Dette nette des administrations publiques, part du PIBIndicator · IND · %Gross general government debt minus financial assets held in the form of the same debt instruments, as a percentage of GDP.
- Valeur actualisée de la dette extérieure publique, part du PIBIndicator · IND · %Present value of public and publicly guaranteed external debt, discounted at the LIC-DSF unified discount rate, as a percentage of GDP.
- Valeur actualisée de la dette extérieure publique, part des exportationsIndicator · IND · %Present value of public and publicly guaranteed external debt as a percentage of exports of goods and services.
- Besoins bruts de financement public, part du PIBIndicator · IND · %General government overall deficit plus amortisation of debt falling due in the year (including short-term debt), as a percentage of GDP.
- Service de la dette extérieure publique, part des recettesIndicator · IND · %Principal and interest paid on public and publicly guaranteed external debt in the year as a percentage of general government revenue excluding grants.
- Service de la dette extérieure publique, part des exportationsIndicator · IND · %Principal and interest paid on public and publicly guaranteed external debt in the year as a percentage of exports of goods, services and primary income.
- Écart des obligations souveraines par rapport à la référenceIndicator · IND · %Yield spread of the sovereign’s foreign-currency bonds over US Treasury (or Bund) securities of matched duration, in percentage points, period average.
- Part en devises de la dette des administrations publiquesIndicator · IND · %Share of general government debt denominated in, or indexed to, a foreign currency, at end of period.
- Part à court terme de la dette des administrations publiques (échéance résiduelle)Indicator · IND · %Share of general government debt falling due within twelve months, by residual maturity, at end of period.
- Dette des administrations publiques détenue par des non-résidentsIndicator · IND · %Share of general government debt held by non-resident creditors (official and private), at end of period.
- Durée moyenne jusqu'à l'échéance de la dette des administrations publiquesIndicator · IND · aWeighted average residual maturity of general government debt principal, in years, at end of period.
- Part concessionnelle de la dette extérieure publiqueIndicator · IND · %Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt contracted on concessional terms (grant element of at least 35%), at end of period.
- Dépenses rigides, part des recettesIndicator · IND · %Compensation of employees, interest and social benefits (GFSM 2014 items 21, 24 and 27) together as a percentage of general government revenue.
- Paiements d'intérêts, part des recettesIndicator · IND · %General government interest payments (GFSM 2014 item 24) as a percentage of general government revenue.
- Recettes des administrations publiques, part du PIBIndicator · IND · %Total general government revenue as a percentage of GDP.
- Recettes tirées des ressources naturelles, part des recettes des administrations publiquesIndicator · IND · %Revenue from oil, gas and mining (royalties, resource taxes, profit transfers from state resource companies) as a percentage of total general government revenue.
- Solde global des administrations publiques, part du PIBIndicator · IND · %General government revenue minus total expenditure (net lending or net borrowing, GFSM 2014) in the year, as a percentage of GDP.
- Solde primaire des administrations publiques, part du PIBIndicator · IND · %Overall general government balance excluding net interest payments, as a percentage of GDP.
- Interest-rate-growth differential (r – g)Indicator · IND · %Effective real interest rate on general government debt (interest paid over the previous year’s debt stock, deflated by the GDP deflator) minus real GDP growth, three-year average, in percentage points.
- Dette des sociétés publiques non financières, part du PIBIndicator · IND · %Gross debt of non-financial public corporations (state-owned enterprises outside general government) as a percentage of GDP, where reported.
- Encours des garanties publiques, part du PIBIndicator · IND · %Stock of explicit one-off loan guarantees issued by general government (including public-private partnership guarantees) outstanding at end of period, as a percentage of GDP.
- Coût budgétaire annuel attendu des catastrophes, part du PIBIndicator · IND · %Modelled average annual cost to the budget of disaster relief, reconstruction of public assets and revenue loss, net of pre-arranged risk financing, as a percentage of GDP.
- Solde du compte courant, part du PIBIndicator · IND · %Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
- Réserves en mois d'importationsIndicator · IND · moGross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
- Dette extérieure à court terme, part des réservesIndicator · IND · %External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
- Encours de la dette extérieure, part du RNBIndicator · IND · %Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
- Public debt burden sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 22.2%Composite of gross and net general government debt and the present value of public external debt to GDP and to exports.
- Financing pressure sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 22.2%Composite of gross financing needs, public external debt service to revenue and to exports, and the sovereign bond spread.
- Debt composition risk sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 16.7%Composite of the foreign-currency share, short-term share, non-resident holdings, average maturity and concessional share of public debt.
- Budget rigidity and revenue weakness sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 11.1%Composite of rigid expenditure to revenue, interest to revenue, revenue to GDP and resource-revenue dependence.
- Fiscal position sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 11.1%Composite of the overall balance, the primary balance and the interest-rate-growth differential.
- Contingent liability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 11.1%Composite of state-owned-enterprise debt, outstanding guarantees and the expected annual fiscal cost of disasters.
- External vulnerability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 5.6%Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
- Indice de risque budgétaire et de dette publiqueDomain index · IDX · geometricExpert-weighted geometric mean of the six fiscal sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10 and floored at 0.1 before aggregation.
- Fragilité macrofinancière et structurellePillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Non exécutéEn coursTerminé
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate fiscal and public debt risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
s’exécute dans votre navigateur
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03Méthode
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- NONE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 71% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- expert
- Aggregation
- geometric
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Incertitude
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; INFORM geometric aggregation; IMF SRDSF and IMF/WB LIC-DSF (pillar structure only)
Très faible0,0 à < 2,0
Faible2,0 à < 3,5
Moyen3,5 à < 5,0
Élevé5,0 à < 6,5
Très élevé6.5 à 10.0
04Composantes
7 components, 27 indicators
Public debt burden sub-index w 2
Composite of gross and net general government debt and the present value of public external debt to GDP and to exports.
| Indicateur | Unité | Éléments probants | Sources | Part |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dette brute des administrations publiques, part du PIBIND.FIS.debt.gross_debt.gdp | % | Class A | imf-weo, imf-gdd, wb-qpsd | 37.5% |
Dette nette des administrations publiques, part du PIBIND.FIS.debt.net_debt.gdp | % | Class B | imf-weo | 12.5% |
Valeur actualisée de la dette extérieure publique, part du PIBIND.FIS.debt.external_ppg_pv.gdp | % | Class C | imf-wb-lic-dsf, wb-ids | 25.0% |
Valeur actualisée de la dette extérieure publique, part des exportationsIND.FIS.debt.external_ppg_pv.exports | % | Class C | imf-wb-lic-dsf, wb-ids | 25.0% |
Financing pressure sub-index w 2
Composite of gross financing needs, public external debt service to revenue and to exports, and the sovereign bond spread.
| Indicateur | Unité | Éléments probants | Sources | Part |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Besoins bruts de financement public, part du PIBIND.FIS.financing.gross_financing_needs.gdp | % | Class C | imf-dsa, imf-fiscal-monitor, national-dmo | 37.5% |
Service de la dette extérieure publique, part des recettesIND.FIS.financing.external_ppg_debt_service.revenue | % | Class B | imf-wb-lic-dsf, wb-ids, imf-gfs | 25.0% |
Service de la dette extérieure publique, part des exportationsIND.FIS.financing.external_ppg_debt_service.exports | % | Class A | wb-ids, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Écart des obligations souveraines par rapport à la référenceIND.FIS.financing.sovereign_spread | % | Class B | jpm-embi:licensed, national-bond-yields, imf-dsa | 12.5% |
Debt composition risk sub-index w 1.5
Composite of the foreign-currency share, short-term share, non-resident holdings, average maturity and concessional share of public debt.
| Indicateur | Unité | Éléments probants | Sources | Part |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Part en devises de la dette des administrations publiquesIND.FIS.debt.fx_share | % | Class B | wb-qpsd, national-dmo, imf-dsa | 20.0% |
Part à court terme de la dette des administrations publiques (échéance résiduelle)IND.FIS.debt.short_term_share | % | Class B | wb-qpsd, national-dmo, imf-dsa | 20.0% |
Dette des administrations publiques détenue par des non-résidentsIND.FIS.debt.nonresident_share | % | Class C | imf-sovereign-investor-base, wb-qpsd, national-dmo | 20.0% |
Durée moyenne jusqu'à l'échéance de la dette des administrations publiquesIND.FIS.debt.average_maturity | a | Class B | national-dmo, oecd-sovereign-borrowing, imf-dsa | 20.0% |
Part concessionnelle de la dette extérieure publiqueIND.FIS.debt.concessional_share | % | Class A | wb-ids | 20.0% |
Budget rigidity and revenue weakness sub-index w 1
Composite of rigid expenditure to revenue, interest to revenue, revenue to GDP and resource-revenue dependence.
| Indicateur | Unité | Éléments probants | Sources | Part |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dépenses rigides, part des recettesIND.FIS.expenditure.rigid_share.revenue | % | Class B | derived:imf-gfs | 28.6% |
Paiements d'intérêts, part des recettesIND.FIS.expenditure.interest.revenue | % | Class A | imf-gfs, imf-weo, wb-wdi | 28.6% |
Recettes des administrations publiques, part du PIBIND.FIS.revenue.total.gdp | % | Class A | imf-weo, imf-gfs, unu-wider-grd | 28.6% |
Recettes tirées des ressources naturelles, part des recettes des administrations publiquesIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share | % | Class B | unu-wider-grd, imf-gfs, eiti | 14.3% |
Fiscal position sub-index w 1
Composite of the overall balance, the primary balance and the interest-rate-growth differential.
| Indicateur | Unité | Éléments probants | Sources | Part |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Solde global des administrations publiques, part du PIBIND.FIS.balance.overall_balance.gdp | % | Class A | imf-weo, imf-gfs, wb-wdi | 33.3% |
Solde primaire des administrations publiques, part du PIBIND.FIS.balance.primary_balance.gdp | % | Class A | imf-weo, imf-gfs | 33.3% |
Interest-rate-growth differential (r – g)IND.FIS.balance.interest_growth_differential | % | Class C | derived:imf-weo, derived:nis:IND.MAC.output.real_gdp_growth | 33.3% |
Contingent liability sub-index w 1
Composite of state-owned-enterprise debt, outstanding guarantees and the expected annual fiscal cost of disasters.
| Indicateur | Unité | Éléments probants | Sources | Part |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dette des sociétés publiques non financières, part du PIBIND.FIS.contingent.soe_debt.gdp | % | Class C | wb-qpsd, imf-public-sector-balance-sheet, national-soe-reports | 40.0% |
Encours des garanties publiques, part du PIBIND.FIS.contingent.guarantees.gdp | % | Class C | national-fiscal-risk-statements, wb-ppi, imf-dsa | 40.0% |
Coût budgétaire annuel attendu des catastrophes, part du PIBIND.FIS.contingent.disaster_fiscal_cost.gdp | % | Class D | undrr-gar-aal, wb-country-climate-development-reports, imf-dsa-climate-annex | 20.0% |
External vulnerability sub-index w 0.5
Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
| Indicateur | Unité | Éléments probants | Sources | Part |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Solde du compte courant, part du PIBIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop | 25.0% |
Réserves en mois d'importationsIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_cover | mo | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-irfcl | 25.0% |
Dette extérieure à court terme, part des réservesIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves | % | Class A | wb-ids, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Encours de la dette extérieure, part du RNBIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni | % | Class A | wb-ids | 25.0% |
05Domaine
Fiscal and public debt
Government revenue, spending, balances, debt stock, composition, financing needs and contingent liabilities.
| Sub-domain | Indicateurs |
|---|---|
| Fiscal balance | 4 |
| Revenue | 5 |
| Expenditure | 3 |
| Debt stock and composition | 9 |
| Gross financing needs | 5 |
| Contingent liabilities | 3 |
| Debt-carrying capacity | 8 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IMF GFS 2014; IMF/WB LIC-DSF; IMF SRDSF; Sovereign rating fiscal pillar.
06Indicateurs
All 37 fiscal and public debt indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicateur | Domaine | Sub-domain | Composant | Unité | Niveaux | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Solde global des administrations publiques, part du PIBIND.FIS.balance.overall_balance.gdp | FIS | Fiscal balance | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_WEO GGXCNL_NGDP WB_WDI GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZS |
Solde primaire des administrations publiques, part du PIBIND.FIS.balance.primary_balance.gdp | FIS | Fiscal balance | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_WEO GGXONLB_NGDP |
Solde structurel des administrations publiques, part du PIB potentielIND.FIS.balance.structural_balance.potgdp | FIS | Fiscal balance | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_WEO GGSB_NPGDP |
Interest-rate-growth differential (r – g)IND.FIS.balance.interest_growth_differential | FIS | Fiscal balance | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Recettes des administrations publiques, dollars US courantsIND.FIS.revenue.total.usd | FIS | Revenue | context | [USD] | COUNTRY | IMF_GFS 1 |
Recettes des administrations publiques, part du PIBIND.FIS.revenue.total.gdp | FIS | Revenue | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_WEO GGR_NGDP SDG 17.1.1 WB_WDI GC.REV.XGRT.GD.ZS |
Recettes fiscales, part du PIBIND.FIS.revenue.tax.gdp | FIS | Revenue | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS IMF_GFS 11 |
Effort fiscal (recettes effectives sur capacité fiscale estimée)IND.FIS.revenue.tax_effort | FIS | Revenue | adaptive capacity | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Recettes tirées des ressources naturelles, part des recettes des administrations publiquesIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share | FIS | Revenue | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Dépenses des administrations publiques, part du PIBIND.FIS.expenditure.total.gdp | FIS | Expenditure | context | % | COUNTRY | IMF_WEO GGX_NGDP WB_WDI GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS |
Dépenses rigides, part des recettesIND.FIS.expenditure.rigid_share.revenue | FIS | Expenditure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Paiements d'intérêts, part des recettesIND.FIS.expenditure.interest.revenue | FIS | Expenditure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI GC.XPN.INTP.RV.ZS |
Dette brute des administrations publiques, part du PIBIND.FIS.debt.gross_debt.gdp | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_WEO GGXWDG_NGDP WB_WDI GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS |
Dette nette des administrations publiques, part du PIBIND.FIS.debt.net_debt.gdp | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_WEO GGXWDN_NGDP |
Part en devises de la dette des administrations publiquesIND.FIS.debt.fx_share | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Part à court terme de la dette des administrations publiques (échéance résiduelle)IND.FIS.debt.short_term_share | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Durée moyenne jusqu'à l'échéance de la dette des administrations publiquesIND.FIS.debt.average_maturity | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | a | COUNTRY | |
Dette des administrations publiques détenue par des non-résidentsIND.FIS.debt.nonresident_share | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Part concessionnelle de la dette extérieure publiqueIND.FIS.debt.concessional_share | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.DOD.ALLC.ZS |
Valeur actualisée de la dette extérieure publique, part du PIBIND.FIS.debt.external_ppg_pv.gdp | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.DOD.PVLX.GN.ZS |
Valeur actualisée de la dette extérieure publique, part des exportationsIND.FIS.debt.external_ppg_pv.exports | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.DOD.PVLX.EX.ZS |
Besoins bruts de financement public, part du PIBIND.FIS.financing.gross_financing_needs.gdp | FIS | Gross financing needs | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Service de la dette extérieure publique, part des recettesIND.FIS.financing.external_ppg_debt_service.revenue | FIS | Gross financing needs | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Service de la dette extérieure publique, part des exportationsIND.FIS.financing.external_ppg_debt_service.exports | FIS | Gross financing needs | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.TDS.DPPG.XP.ZS SDG 17.4.1 |
Écart des obligations souveraines par rapport à la référenceIND.FIS.financing.sovereign_spread | FIS | Gross financing needs | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Écart des contrats d'échange sur défaut souverain à cinq ansIND.FIS.financing.sovereign_cds_5y | FIS | Gross financing needs | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Dette des sociétés publiques non financières, part du PIBIND.FIS.contingent.soe_debt.gdp | FIS | Contingent liabilities | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Encours des garanties publiques, part du PIBIND.FIS.contingent.guarantees.gdp | FIS | Contingent liabilities | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Coût budgétaire annuel attendu des catastrophes, part du PIBIND.FIS.contingent.disaster_fiscal_cost.gdp | FIS | Contingent liabilities | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Score de l'indicateur composite LIC-DSF (publié, référence)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
Seuil LIC-DSF : VA de la dette extérieure rapportée au PIB (référence)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_ext_gdp | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | context | % | COUNTRY | |
Seuil LIC-DSF : VA de la dette extérieure rapportée aux exportations (référence)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_ext_exports | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | context | % | COUNTRY | |
Seuil LIC-DSF : service de la dette extérieure rapporté aux exportations (référence)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.ds_ext_exports | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | context | % | COUNTRY | |
Seuil LIC-DSF : service de la dette extérieure rapporté aux recettes (référence)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.ds_ext_revenue | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | context | % | COUNTRY | |
Repère LIC-DSF : VA de la dette publique totale rapportée au PIB (référence)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_public_gdp | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | context | % | COUNTRY | |
Risque de surendettement LIC-DSF, tel que publié (référence)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_risk_published | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | context | {class} | COUNTRY | |
Risque global de tensions souveraines SRDSF, tel que publié (référence)IND.FIS.capacity.srdsf_risk_published | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | context | {class} | COUNTRY |
07Cotation
Fiscal and public debt risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · FIS · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Fiscal and public debt risk index, world
–
Les valeurs sont publiées avec l'édition ; l'intervalle, la classe et la variation apparaissent ici.
- Édition précédente
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Composite couplé
- –
- Score de couplage S
- –
- Pulse, dernière semaine
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Méthode
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Tirages
- 1,000
Fiscal and public debt risk index, world, by edition
Aucune valeur publiée pour l'instant. La première édition trace ici l'historique avec sa bande d'intervalle et les bornes de classe.
Afrique54
Amériques35
Asie48
Europe44
Aucune évolution pour l'instant. Les changements depuis l'édition précédente seront listés ici à partir de la deuxième édition, avec les indicateurs qui les ont déterminés.
08Valeurs
Country values
FIG 5 · Fiscal and public debt risk index: countries (values when released)
Chargement de la carte
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- Tuiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/fis/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Clé d'observation
nis:IDX.FIS.debt.fiscal_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Séries
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-05Global Finance and economyFiscal and public debt risk, financial stability, external dependence, inflation and growth at risk, and the macro-financial channels of physical and transition risk.→ SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security.→ SR-05Fiscal resilienceFiscal space, debt sustainability signals, contingent liabilities from disasters, and pre-arranged finance.→ TH-03Disaster Risk Finance (DRF)Loss sensitivity, protection gaps, contingent liabilities and the readiness questions for pre-arranged finance, insurance and risk transfer.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 12 |
IMF_WEO | 6 |
SDG | 2 |
11Dans le Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
12Citer
Citer et réutiliser
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Fiscal and public debt risk index (GRX-IDX-FIS), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/fiscal-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000122.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Statut
La méthodologie, la structure et les définitions de The Global Risks Index constituent un projet de travail préparatoire (2026), diffusé pour examen et commentaires et non pour mise en œuvre. Aucune valeur n'apparaît avant la publication d'une édition à partir d'une coupe de données probantes encadrée ; les valeurs comportent alors des intervalles, des classes, des sources et leur voie de correction. Les simulateurs appliquent les méthodes publiées à des nombres que vous choisissez et n'affichent jamais de valeur NXS-GRX.
Ce que NXS-GRX n'est pas
NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques. Ce n'est pas une notation de crédit ou ESG et il n'utilise aucune échelle de notation ; ce n'est pas un indice de référence pour des instruments financiers, ni une statistique officielle, ni une alerte d'urgence ou une classification officielle, ni un conseil. Il ne doit pas servir à évaluer des personnes physiques. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, jamais des classements de pays ou de personnes.
Institutions et sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Chaque valeur porte l'attribution de ses sources, qui conservent leurs propres licences. Les noms externes ne sont cités qu'à des fins d'interopérabilité. Les textes rédigés par Nexus sont destinés à être publiés sous licence CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.