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The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-SPC · HTE Hazard and threat exposure

Indice d'exposition à la météorologie de l'espace

0–10 index of space-weather exposure as the product of the space-weather hazard and space-service dependence sub-indices; mostly modelled and expert inputs, so its grade is capped.

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-SPCEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.SPC.weather.space_weather_exposureValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

product

equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Incertitude

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Structure

2 components

6 leaf indicators

Couverture

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
6
leaf indicators
2
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
5
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

A first-order view of where severe space weather would disrupt the most; a screening measure pending observed impact data.

computation
How Space-weather exposure is computed
Graph11 nodes
Graphe
01Indicateurs
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilier
05Composite
100%
Liste
  1. Amplitude du champ géoélectrique pour une période de retour de 100 ans
    Indicator · IND · V/km
    Modelled peak horizontal geoelectric field at the surface for a 1-in-100-year geomagnetic storm, combining geomagnetic latitude, storm-time magnetic field variation and regional ground conductivity, in volts per kilometre.
  2. Severe geomagnetic storm days per year
    Indicator · IND · d/a
    Average annual number of days on which planetary geomagnetic activity reaches NOAA G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme), that is Kp of 8- or more, averaged over the latest two full solar cycles.
  3. Strong solar radiation storm days per year
    Indicator · IND · d/a
    Average annual number of days with energetic proton flux at NOAA S3 (strong) or above, averaged over the latest two full solar cycles.
  4. PIB des activités dépendantes du GNSS, part
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of GDP generated by activities that cannot operate normally without satellite positioning, navigation or timing (logistics, aviation, maritime, precision agriculture, telecom and financial timing), from a dependence mapping of sector value added; target-only, model-based.
  5. Services critiques reposant sur des satellites sans secours, part
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of assessed critical service functions (communications to remote areas, broadcast, maritime and aviation safety, Earth observation for warning, timing) that rely on satellite links without a tested terrestrial fallback; expert-assessed.
  6. Réseau haute tension en zones d'aléa géoélectrique élevé, part
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of transmission line length at 220 kV or above lying where the 100-year geoelectric field exceeds 2 V/km; modelled from grid topology and geoelectric hazard maps.
  7. Space-weather hazard sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 50.0%
    Composite of the local 100-year geoelectric field with the global frequency of severe geomagnetic and strong radiation storms.
  8. Space-service dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 50.0%
    Composite of GNSS-dependent GDP share, satellite-reliant critical services without backup and high-voltage grid in high geoelectric hazard zones.
  9. Indice d'exposition à la météorologie de l'espace
    Domain index · IDX · product
    0–10 index of space-weather exposure as the product of the space-weather hazard and space-service dependence sub-indices; mostly modelled and expert inputs, so its grade is capped.
  10. Exposition aux aléas et menaces
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  11. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Non exécutéEn coursTerminé
FIG 2. 6 indicators, 2 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate space-weather exposure on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
25
1
–
s’exécute dans votre navigateur
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Méthode

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
min–max rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
equal
Aggregation
product
Scale
0 to 10
Incertitude
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
IPCC AR6 risk framing (hazard x exposure); NOAA SWPC space weather scales; Hazard Standard space domain
Très faible0,0 à < 2,0
Faible2,0 à < 3,5
Moyen3,5 à < 5,0
Élevé5,0 à < 6,5
Très élevé6.5 à 10.0
04Composantes

2 components, 6 indicators

Space-weather hazard sub-index w 1

Composite of the local 100-year geoelectric field with the global frequency of severe geomagnetic and strong radiation storms.

IndicateurUnitéÉléments probantsSourcesPart
Amplitude du champ géoélectrique pour une période de retour de 100 ansIND.SPC.weather.geoelectric_field_rp100V/kmClass Dusgs-geoelectric-hazard, bgs-geoelectric-models, nexus-gic-model50.0%
Severe geomagnetic storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.severe_geomagnetic_storm_daysd/aClass Agfz-kp-index, noaa-swpc25.0%
Strong solar radiation storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.radiation_storm_daysd/aClass Anoaa-swpc, goes-energetic-particles25.0%

Space-service dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of GNSS-dependent GDP share, satellite-reliant critical services without backup and high-voltage grid in high geoelectric hazard zones.

IndicateurUnitéÉléments probantsSourcesPart
PIB des activités dépendantes du GNSS, partIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share%Class Enexus-gnss-dependence-model, national-accounts-value-added, euspa-market-report33.3%
Services critiques reposant sur des satellites sans secours, partIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share%Class Enexus-expert-assessment, itu-space-services-filings33.3%
Réseau haute tension en zones d'aléa géoélectrique élevé, partIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share%Class Dosm-power-grid, derived:nis:IND.SPC.weather.geoelectric_field_rp10033.3%
05Domaine

Space environment

Space weather and the exposure of space-dependent services.

Sub-domainIndicateurs
Météorologie spatiale3
Space-service dependence3

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): Hazard Standard space domain; NOAA SWPC scales.

06Indicateurs

All 6 space environment indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
SPC · 6
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndicateurDomaineSub-domainComposantUnitéNiveauxCrosswalks
Severe geomagnetic storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.severe_geomagnetic_storm_daysSPCMétéorologie spatialehazardd/aGLOBALUNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0101 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-geo
Amplitude du champ géoélectrique pour une période de retour de 100 ansIND.SPC.weather.geoelectric_field_rp100SPCMétéorologie spatialehazardV/kmCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Strong solar radiation storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.radiation_storm_daysSPCMétéorologie spatialehazardd/aGLOBALUNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0104 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-ene
PIB des activités dépendantes du GNSS, partIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.shareSPCSpace-service dependenceexposure%COUNTRY, PORTFOLIOUNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Services critiques reposant sur des satellites sans secours, partIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.shareSPCSpace-service dependencevulnerability%COUNTRY
Réseau haute tension en zones d'aléa géoélectrique élevé, partIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.shareSPCSpace-service dependenceexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1
07Cotation

Space-weather exposure index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · SPC · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Space-weather exposure index, world
–
Les valeurs sont publiées avec l'édition ; l'intervalle, la classe et la variation apparaissent ici.
Édition précédente
–
Range since 2016
–
Composite couplé
–
Score de couplage S
–
Pulse, dernière semaine
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Méthode
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Tirages
1,000
Space-weather exposure index, world, by edition

Aucune valeur publiée pour l'instant. La première édition trace ici l'historique avec sa bande d'intervalle et les bornes de classe.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Afrique54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
Amériques35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
Asie48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
Europe44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
Océanie14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
Aucune évolution pour l'instant. Les changements depuis l'édition précédente seront listés ici à partir de la deuxième édition, avec les indicateurs qui les ont déterminés.
08Valeurs

Country values

FIG 5 · Space-weather exposure index: countries (values when released)
Chargement de la carte
AndorreAntigua-et-BarbudaBahreïnBarbadeComoresCabo VerdeDominiqueMicronésie (États fédérés de)GrenadeKiribatiSaint-Kitts-et-NevisSainte-LucieLiechtensteinMonacoMaldivesÎles MarshallMalteMauriceNauruPalaosSingapourSaint-MarinSao Tomé-et-PrincipeSeychellesTongaTuvaluSaint-SiègeSaint-Vincent-et-les GrenadinesSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tuiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/spc/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Clé d'observation
nis:IDX.SPC.weather.space_weather_exposure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Séries

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-12Global Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems behind NXS-GRX. SR-14Global catastrophic and tail riskLow-probability, high-impact and global catastrophic risks: severe space weather, super-eruptions, engineered and natural pandemics, nuclear and frontier-technology failure modes, compound collapses. XT-07Earth observation and space systemsDependency on satellites for navigation, communications and observation; orbital congestion, debris and space-weather exposure. XT-12Positioning, navigation and timingDependency of power, telecom, finance and transport on positioning and timing signals; jamming, spoofing and space weather.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
UNDRR_HIPS_20253
EMDAT2
11Dans le Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Citer

Citer et réutiliser

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Space-weather exposure index (GRX-IDX-SPC), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/space-weather-exposure/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000129.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

Statut

La méthodologie, la structure et les définitions de The Global Risks Index constituent un projet de travail préparatoire (2026), diffusé pour examen et commentaires et non pour mise en œuvre. Aucune valeur n'apparaît avant la publication d'une édition à partir d'une coupe de données probantes encadrée ; les valeurs comportent alors des intervalles, des classes, des sources et leur voie de correction. Les simulateurs appliquent les méthodes publiées à des nombres que vous choisissez et n'affichent jamais de valeur NXS-GRX.

Ce que NXS-GRX n'est pas

NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques. Ce n'est pas une notation de crédit ou ESG et il n'utilise aucune échelle de notation ; ce n'est pas un indice de référence pour des instruments financiers, ni une statistique officielle, ni une alerte d'urgence ou une classification officielle, ni un conseil. Il ne doit pas servir à évaluer des personnes physiques. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, jamais des classements de pays ou de personnes.

Institutions et sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Chaque valeur porte l'attribution de ses sources, qui conservent leurs propres licences. Les noms externes ne sont cités qu'à des fins d'interopérabilité. Les textes rédigés par Nexus sont destinés à être publiés sous licence CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.