宇宙天気エクスポージャー指数
0–10 index of space-weather exposure as the product of the space-weather hazard and space-service dependence sub-indices; mostly modelled and expert inputs, so its grade is capped.
product
equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
2 components
6 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
A first-order view of where severe space weather would disrupt the most; a screening measure pending observed impact data.
- 再現期間 100 年の地電界振幅Indicator · IND · V/kmModelled peak horizontal geoelectric field at the surface for a 1-in-100-year geomagnetic storm, combining geomagnetic latitude, storm-time magnetic field variation and regional ground conductivity, in volts per kilometre.
- Severe geomagnetic storm days per yearIndicator · IND · d/aAverage annual number of days on which planetary geomagnetic activity reaches NOAA G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme), that is Kp of 8- or more, averaged over the latest two full solar cycles.
- Strong solar radiation storm days per yearIndicator · IND · d/aAverage annual number of days with energetic proton flux at NOAA S3 (strong) or above, averaged over the latest two full solar cycles.
- GNSS に依存する活動の GDP（割合）Indicator · IND · %Share of GDP generated by activities that cannot operate normally without satellite positioning, navigation or timing (logistics, aviation, maritime, precision agriculture, telecom and financial timing), from a dependence mapping of sector value added; target-only, model-based.
- バックアップなしで衛星に依存する重要サービス（割合）Indicator · IND · %Share of assessed critical service functions (communications to remote areas, broadcast, maritime and aviation safety, Earth observation for warning, timing) that rely on satellite links without a tested terrestrial fallback; expert-assessed.
- 地電界ハザードの高い地域にある高圧送電網（割合）Indicator · IND · %Share of transmission line length at 220 kV or above lying where the 100-year geoelectric field exceeds 2 V/km; modelled from grid topology and geoelectric hazard maps.
- Space-weather hazard sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 50.0%Composite of the local 100-year geoelectric field with the global frequency of severe geomagnetic and strong radiation storms.
- Space-service dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 50.0%Composite of GNSS-dependent GDP share, satellite-reliant critical services without backup and high-voltage grid in high geoelectric hazard zones.
- 宇宙天気エクスポージャー指数Domain index · IDX · product0–10 index of space-weather exposure as the product of the space-weather hazard and space-service dependence sub-indices; mostly modelled and expert inputs, so its grade is capped.
- ハザードと脅威へのエクスポージャーPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- min–max rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- equal
- Aggregation
- product
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- 不確実性
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- IPCC AR6 risk framing (hazard x exposure); NOAA SWPC space weather scales; Hazard Standard space domain
2 components, 6 indicators
Space-weather hazard sub-index w 1
Composite of the local 100-year geoelectric field with the global frequency of severe geomagnetic and strong radiation storms.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
再現期間 100 年の地電界振幅IND.SPC.weather.geoelectric_field_rp100 | V/km | Class D | usgs-geoelectric-hazard, bgs-geoelectric-models, nexus-gic-model | 50.0% |
Severe geomagnetic storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.severe_geomagnetic_storm_days | d/a | Class A | gfz-kp-index, noaa-swpc | 25.0% |
Strong solar radiation storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.radiation_storm_days | d/a | Class A | noaa-swpc, goes-energetic-particles | 25.0% |
Space-service dependence sub-index w 1
Composite of GNSS-dependent GDP share, satellite-reliant critical services without backup and high-voltage grid in high geoelectric hazard zones.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
GNSS に依存する活動の GDP（割合）IND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share | % | Class E | nexus-gnss-dependence-model, national-accounts-value-added, euspa-market-report | 33.3% |
バックアップなしで衛星に依存する重要サービス（割合）IND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share | % | Class E | nexus-expert-assessment, itu-space-services-filings | 33.3% |
地電界ハザードの高い地域にある高圧送電網（割合）IND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share | % | Class D | osm-power-grid, derived:nis:IND.SPC.weather.geoelectric_field_rp100 | 33.3% |
Space environment
Space weather and the exposure of space-dependent services.
| Sub-domain | 指標 |
|---|---|
| 宇宙天気 | 3 |
| Space-service dependence | 3 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): Hazard Standard space domain; NOAA SWPC scales.
All 6 space environment indicators
| 指標 | 分野 | Sub-domain | 構成要素 | 単位 | レベル | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Severe geomagnetic storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.severe_geomagnetic_storm_days | SPC | 宇宙天気 | hazard | d/a | GLOBAL | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0101 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-geo |
再現期間 100 年の地電界振幅IND.SPC.weather.geoelectric_field_rp100 | SPC | 宇宙天気 | hazard | V/km | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Strong solar radiation storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.radiation_storm_days | SPC | 宇宙天気 | hazard | d/a | GLOBAL | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0104 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-ene |
GNSS に依存する活動の GDP（割合）IND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share | SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102 |
バックアップなしで衛星に依存する重要サービス（割合）IND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share | SPC | Space-service dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
地電界ハザードの高い地域にある高圧送電網（割合）IND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share | SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 |
Space-weather exposure index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- 前回の版
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- 結合総合
- –
- 結合スコア S
- –
- パルス、直近 1 週間
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- 手法
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- 抽出
- 1,000
公開済みの値はまだありません。最初の版で、区間の帯と区分の境界とともに履歴がここに描かれます。
Country values
- タイル
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/spc/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- 観測キー
nis:IDX.SPC.weather.space_weather_exposure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
UNDRR_HIPS_2025 | 3 |
EMDAT | 2 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
引用と再利用
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
ステータス
The Global Risks Index の手法、構造、定義は準備段階の作業草案（2026 年）であり、レビューと意見募集のために配布されているもので、実施を目的としたものではありません。管理されたエビデンスの区切りから版が公表されるまで、値は一切表示されません。公表後の値には、区間、区分、出典、訂正の経路が付されます。シミュレーターは、公表された手法をあなたが選んだ数値で実行するものであり、NXS-GRX の値を表示することはありません。
NXS-GRX ではないもの
NXS-GRX は研究およびリスク分析の情報です。信用格付や ESG 格付ではなく、格付尺度を用いず、金融商品のベンチマークでも、公的統計でも、緊急警報や公式分類でも、助言でもありません。自然人の評価に用いてはなりません。リスククラスは公開された尺度上の区分であり、国や人の順位付けではありません。
機関と情報源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
すべての値には情報源の帰属表示が付され、情報源はそれぞれ独自のライセンスを保持します。外部の名称は相互運用性のためにのみ引用しています。Nexus が執筆したテキストは、公開時に CC BY 4.0 とする予定です。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.