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Global Risks Index

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インテリジェンス・ハブ

Pulse · Outlook · Horizon · analyst-reviewed briefings

Observatory Set up a watchlist

概要

No brief yet

The daily brief is issued from analyst-reviewed signals once Pulse and Outlook are live. Each item names its sources and the authority that decides.

Signals

No signals yet

Pulse readings become signals for review when they cross a place’s own historical range. Nothing here is a warning; every handoff names the authority that decides.

on: pulse anomaly

レビュー対象のシグナル

Waiting for approvalTriggered by Pulse nowcast5 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

グラフ
01Detect
02確認する
03Assess
04引き継ぐ

100%
タイムライン
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 dTarget
Anomaly detectedPulse nowcast7 d
Sources verifiedData stewards1 d
Analyst reviewAnalysts2 d
Information for competent authoritiesSecretariat1 d
Logged and watchedPulse nowcastongoing

End to end on the longest path: about 12.3 d of proposed target service levels, before the jobs that run with no fixed end. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

ステップ
  1. Anomaly detected

    Detect · Pulse nowcast · weekly
    Standardised anomaly vs own history
    Pulse nowcast
  2. Sources verified matrix · per stream

    Verify · Data stewards · 1 day
    Each stream checked · Licence admits use
    ライセンス登録簿来歴（W3C PROV）
  3. Analyst review approval

    Assess · Analysts · 2 days
    Context, couplings, confidence
    PostgreSQL 台帳（行レベル・セキュリティ）
  4. Information for competent authorities

    Hand off · Secretariat · 1 day
    Shared for review, not a warning
    NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) gateway
  5. Logged and watched

    Hand off · Pulse nowcast · ongoing
    Outcome tracked for verification
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)Pulse nowcast
成果物
成果物 ジョブ 担当 段階
Signal candidate Anomaly detected Pulse nowcast Detect
Source check Sources verified データ・スチュワード 確認する
Assessment Analyst review Analysts Assess
Handoff record Information for competent authorities 事務局 引き継ぐ
Verification record Logged and watched Pulse nowcast 引き継ぐ
完了進行中承認待ち待機中承認ゲートマトリクス・ジョブ現在地
How a weekly anomaly becomes a signal for review by competent authorities, never a public warning. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Horizon

No horizon cycle yet

Each cycle scans admitted sources, scores emerging risks for likelihood and impact with ranges, and links them to the domains they would couple into.

on: horizon cycle opens

ホライズンスキャンとブリーフ

In progressTriggered by Intelligence team6 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

グラフ
01Scan
02Scan
03Assess
04概要
05概要

100%
タイムライン
Job0 d5 d10 d15 dTarget
Scan sourcesNXS-GRX Intelligence7 d
Cluster and deduplicateNXS-GRX Intelligence1 d
Likelihood and impact with uncertaintyAnalysts3 d
Systemic linksAnalysts2 d
Peer reviewReviewers5 d
Briefing issuedIntelligence team1 d

End to end on the longest path: about 17 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

ステップ
  1. Scan sources matrix · sources

    Scan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · weekly
    Admitted sources and literature · Expert elicitation
    Horizon scanningLicence register
  2. Cluster and deduplicate

    Scan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · 1 day
    Themes and weak signals
    Horizon scanning
  3. Likelihood and impact with uncertainty

    Assess · Analysts · 3 days
    Structured elicitation · Ranges, not points
    Horizon scanningMonte Carlo engine
  4. Systemic links

    Assess · Analysts · 2 days
    Coupling to existing domains
    依存ネットワーク
  5. 査読 承認

    Brief · Reviewers · 5 days
    Challenge session · Disposition
    PostgreSQL 台帳（行レベル・セキュリティ）
  6. Briefing issued

    Brief · Intelligence team · 1 day
    Briefing with sources and limits
    Nexus Reports
成果物
成果物 ジョブ 担当 段階
Candidate list Scan sources NXS-GRX Intelligence Scan
Theme map Cluster and deduplicate NXS-GRX Intelligence Scan
Horizon matrix Likelihood and impact with uncertainty Analysts Assess
Link map Systemic links Analysts Assess
Review record 査読 Reviewers 概要
Horizon briefing Briefing issued Intelligence team 概要
完了進行中承認待ち待機中承認ゲートマトリクス・ジョブ現在地
Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Outlooks

No outlooks yet

Outlooks give calibrated probabilities at 1, 3, 12 and 36 months for defined events, each with its verification scorecard.

検証

No scorecards yet

Every Outlook model version publishes its reliability diagram, Brier score, skill and ROC area on held-out cases before it is used.

on: model version submitted

モデルをテスト・検証する

In progressTriggered by Model owner7 jobs1 approval gate11 checks1 deployment

グラフ
01提出
02試験
03Document
04Approve
05Approve

100%
タイムライン
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 dTarget
Model version submittedYouinstant
BacktestVerification engine6 h
Out-of-sample scoresVerification engine2 h
BenchmarkVerification engine2 h
Model cardYou1 d
Approval gateMethod stewards10 d
Promote to productionNXS-GRX Platforminstant

End to end on the longest path: about 11.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

ステップ
  1. Model version submitted

    Submit · You · instant
    Code, data and seed pinned · Intended use declared
    Model LabPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
  2. Backtest

    Test · Verification engine · 6 hours
    Rolling-origin backtest · Hindcasts over the archive
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  3. Out-of-sample scores

    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Brier and CRPS · Reliability and ROC area
    Verification engine
  4. Benchmark

    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Against established indices and naive baselines
    Verification engineindicator standard
  5. Model card

    Document · You · 1 day
    Intended use and limits · Data, method and scores
    Replication packs
  6. 承認ゲート 承認

    Approve · Method stewards · 10 days
    Disposition recorded
    PostgreSQL 台帳（行レベル・セキュリティ）
  7. Promote to production

    Approve · NXS-GRX Platform · instant
    Version pinned in production · Rollback kept
    Model LabPublic cut API
成果物
成果物 ジョブ 担当 段階
Version record Model version submitted あなた 提出
Backtest report Backtest Verification engine 試験
Scorecard Out-of-sample scores Verification engine 試験
Benchmark table Benchmark Verification engine 試験
Model card Model card あなた Document
Approval record 承認ゲート Method stewards Approve
Release tag Promote to production NXS-GRX Platform Approve
完了進行中承認待ちQueuedApproval gateTest jobDeploymentYou are here
Every model version is backtested, scored out of sample, compared with established indices and documented in a model card before use. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Workbench

on: watchlist saved

Analyst workbench: watchlist to handoff

Waiting for approvalTriggered by Monitoring team6 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

グラフ
01Set up
02Sense
03レビュー
04提供する

100%
タイムライン
Job0 d2 d4 d6 dTarget
Watchlist and thresholdsYouinstant
Pulse nowcastPulse nowcast7 d
Outlook updateOutlook models7 d
Analyst reviewDuty analyst6 h
Route the alertAlert routerinstant
Handoff to the authorityDuty analyst2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 7.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

ステップ
  1. Watchlist and thresholds

    Set up · You · self-serve
    Entities and domains · Thresholds and channels
    Alert router
  2. Pulse nowcast matrix · entities × domains

    Sense · Pulse nowcast · weekly
    Anomaly against each place’s own history
    Pulse nowcastTested model kernels
  3. Outlook update

    Sense · Outlook models · weekly
    Calibrated probabilities refreshed
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  4. Analyst review approval

    Review · Duty analyst · 6 hours
    Signal checked against sources · Context added
    PostgreSQL 台帳（行レベル・セキュリティ）
  5. Route the alert

    Deliver · Alert router · < 5 ms
    Email, webhook or dashboard · Never framed as a warning
    Alert routerWebhooks and streaming
  6. Handoff to the authority

    Deliver · Duty analyst · 2 hours
    Names the authority that decides
    PostgreSQL 台帳（行レベル・セキュリティ）
成果物
成果物 ジョブ 担当 段階
Watchlist Watchlist and thresholds あなた Set up
Pulse readings Pulse nowcast Pulse nowcast Sense
Outlook readings Outlook update Outlook models Sense
Reviewed signal Analyst review Duty analyst レビュー
Alert Route the alert Alert router 提供する
Hand-over note Handoff to the authority Duty analyst 提供する
完了進行中承認待ち待機中承認ゲートマトリクス・ジョブ現在地
Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
Signals are information for review, not warnings · every handoff names the authority that decidesNot live yet

01Rules

How intelligence is issued

Signals, not warnings

A signal is information for review. Official warnings come from the authorities that issue them.

Reviewed before it reaches you

Every signal passes an analyst gate; the reviewer and the sources are recorded.

Handoff names the authority

Where action may be needed, the handoff names the authority that decides.

Verified in public

Every Outlook model version publishes reliability, Brier score, skill and ROC area.

02ジャーニー

Intelligence journeys

NXS-GRX · Govern

レビュー対象のシグナル

How a weekly anomaly becomes a signal for review by competent authorities, never a public warning. 5 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX Intelligence · Monitor

ウォッチリストとアラートでモニタリング

Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. 6 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX Intelligence · Monitor

ホライズンスキャンとブリーフ

Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review. 6 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX · Govern

シナリオパックを依頼する

Pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100 and structured stress tests for planning and supervisory exercises. 5 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run

03人道支援データ

What the Humanitarian Data Exchange feed holds

194 countries synced on 2026-10-23 from 226 datasets whose licence passes the gate; 147 resources were left out for their licence. Each country’s page shows the values, with date, provider and licence. Source observations for review, not warnings and not index values.

テーマ 国 With ADM1 figures With ADM2 figures Newest reference date
人口 109 98 59 2025-12-31
支援を必要とする人々 22 6 16 2026-12-31
貧困者数 107 99 0 2024-12-31
受け入れている難民 171 0 0 2025-12-31
国外の難民 186 0 0 2025-12-31
長期平均に対する降水量 112 109 44 2026-10-10
Humanitarian funding 107 0 0 2026-08-31
市場の食料価格 85 0 0 2026-10-14

Bring intelligence to your team

Watchlists, briefings and outlooks are agreed with the Secretariat.

お問い合わせ

ステータス

The Global Risks Index の手法、構造、定義は準備段階の作業草案（2026 年）であり、レビューと意見募集のために配布されているもので、実施を目的としたものではありません。管理されたエビデンスの区切りから版が公表されるまで、値は一切表示されません。公表後の値には、区間、区分、出典、訂正の経路が付されます。シミュレーターは、公表された手法をあなたが選んだ数値で実行するものであり、NXS-GRX の値を表示することはありません。

NXS-GRX ではないもの

NXS-GRX は研究およびリスク分析の情報です。信用格付や ESG 格付ではなく、格付尺度を用いず、金融商品のベンチマークでも、公的統計でも、緊急警報や公式分類でも、助言でもありません。自然人の評価に用いてはなりません。リスククラスは公開された尺度上の区分であり、国や人の順位付けではありません。

機関と情報源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

すべての値には情報源の帰属表示が付され、情報源はそれぞれ独自のライセンスを保持します。外部の名称は相互運用性のためにのみ引用しています。Nexus が執筆したテキストは、公開時に CC BY 4.0 とする予定です。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.