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The Global Risks Index

INT

Intelligence Hub

Pulse · Outlook · Horizon · analyst-reviewed briefings

Observatory Set up a watchlist

Özet

No brief yet

The daily brief is issued from analyst-reviewed signals once Pulse and Outlook are live. Each item names its sources and the authority that decides.

Signals

No signals yet

Pulse readings become signals for review when they cross a place’s own historical range. Nothing here is a warning; every handoff names the authority that decides.

on: pulse anomaly

İnceleme için bir sinyal

Waiting for approvalTriggered by Pulse nowcast5 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

Grafik
01Detect
02Doğrula
03Değerlendirin
04Devredin

100%
Zaman çizelgesi
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 dTarget
Anomaly detectedPulse nowcast7 d
Sources verifiedData stewards1 d
Analyst reviewAnalysts2 d
Information for competent authoritiesSecretariat1 d
Logged and watchedPulse nowcastongoing

End to end on the longest path: about 12.3 d of proposed target service levels, before the jobs that run with no fixed end. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Adımlar
  1. Anomaly detected

    Detect · Pulse nowcast · weekly
    Standardised anomaly vs own history
    Pulse nowcast
  2. Sources verified matrix · per stream

    Verify · Data stewards · 1 day
    Each stream checked · Licence admits use
    Lisans siciliKöken (W3C PROV)
  3. Analyst review approval

    Assess · Analysts · 2 days
    Context, couplings, confidence
    PostgreSQL defteri (satır düzeyinde güvenlik)
  4. Information for competent authorities

    Hand off · Secretariat · 1 day
    Shared for review, not a warning
    NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) gateway
  5. Logged and watched

    Hand off · Pulse nowcast · ongoing
    Outcome tracked for verification
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)Pulse nowcast
Çıktılar
Çıktı İş Kim Aşama
Signal candidate Anomaly detected Pulse nowcast Detect
Source check Sources verified Veri sorumluları Doğrula
Assessment Analyst review Analistler Değerlendirin
Handoff record Information for competent authorities Sekreterya Devredin
Verification record Logged and watched Pulse nowcast Devredin
TamamlandıSürüyorOnay bekleniyorSıradaOnay kontrol noktasıMatris işiBuradasınız
How a weekly anomaly becomes a signal for review by competent authorities, never a public warning. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Horizon

No horizon cycle yet

Each cycle scans admitted sources, scores emerging risks for likelihood and impact with ranges, and links them to the domains they would couple into.

on: horizon cycle opens

Ufuk taraması ve brifing

In progressTriggered by Intelligence team6 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

Grafik
01Scan
02Scan
03Değerlendirin
04Özet
05Özet

100%
Zaman çizelgesi
Job0 d5 d10 d15 dTarget
Scan sourcesNXS-GRX Intelligence7 d
Cluster and deduplicateNXS-GRX Intelligence1 d
Likelihood and impact with uncertaintyAnalysts3 d
Systemic linksAnalysts2 d
Peer reviewReviewers5 d
Briefing issuedIntelligence team1 d

End to end on the longest path: about 17 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Adımlar
  1. Scan sources matrix · sources

    Scan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · weekly
    Admitted sources and literature · Expert elicitation
    Horizon scanningLicence register
  2. Cluster and deduplicate

    Scan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · 1 day
    Themes and weak signals
    Horizon scanning
  3. Likelihood and impact with uncertainty

    Assess · Analysts · 3 days
    Structured elicitation · Ranges, not points
    Horizon scanningMonte Carlo engine
  4. Systemic links

    Assess · Analysts · 2 days
    Coupling to existing domains
    Bağımlılık ağı
  5. Hakem incelemesi onay

    Brief · Reviewers · 5 days
    Challenge session · Disposition
    PostgreSQL defteri (satır düzeyinde güvenlik)
  6. Briefing issued

    Brief · Intelligence team · 1 day
    Briefing with sources and limits
    Nexus Reports
Çıktılar
Çıktı İş Kim Aşama
Candidate list Scan sources NXS-GRX Intelligence Scan
Theme map Cluster and deduplicate NXS-GRX Intelligence Scan
Horizon matrix Likelihood and impact with uncertainty Analistler Değerlendirin
Link map Systemic links Analistler Değerlendirin
Review record Hakem incelemesi Reviewers Özet
Horizon briefing Briefing issued Intelligence team Özet
TamamlandıSürüyorOnay bekleniyorSıradaOnay kontrol noktasıMatris işiBuradasınız
Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Outlooks

No outlooks yet

Outlooks give calibrated probabilities at 1, 3, 12 and 36 months for defined events, each with its verification scorecard.

Doğrulama

No scorecards yet

Every Outlook model version publishes its reliability diagram, Brier score, skill and ROC area on held-out cases before it is used.

on: model version submitted

Bir modeli test edin ve doğrulayın

In progressTriggered by Model owner7 jobs1 approval gate11 checks1 deployment

Grafik
01Gönder
02Test edin
03Document
04Approve
05Approve

100%
Zaman çizelgesi
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 dTarget
Model version submittedYouinstant
BacktestVerification engine6 h
Out-of-sample scoresVerification engine2 h
BenchmarkVerification engine2 h
Model cardYou1 d
Approval gateMethod stewards10 d
Promote to productionNXS-GRX Platforminstant

End to end on the longest path: about 11.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Adımlar
  1. Model version submitted

    Submit · You · instant
    Code, data and seed pinned · Intended use declared
    Model LabPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
  2. Backtest

    Test · Verification engine · 6 hours
    Rolling-origin backtest · Hindcasts over the archive
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  3. Out-of-sample scores

    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Brier and CRPS · Reliability and ROC area
    Verification engine
  4. Benchmark

    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Against established indices and naive baselines
    Verification engineindicator standard
  5. Model kartı

    Document · You · 1 day
    Intended use and limits · Data, method and scores
    Replication packs
  6. Onay kontrol noktası onay

    Approve · Method stewards · 10 days
    Disposition recorded
    PostgreSQL defteri (satır düzeyinde güvenlik)
  7. Promote to production

    Approve · NXS-GRX Platform · instant
    Version pinned in production · Rollback kept
    Model LabPublic cut API
Çıktılar
Çıktı İş Kim Aşama
Version record Model version submitted Siz Gönder
Backtest report Backtest Verification engine Test edin
Scorecard Out-of-sample scores Verification engine Test edin
Benchmark table Benchmark Verification engine Test edin
Model kartı Model kartı Siz Document
Approval record Onay kontrol noktası Method stewards Approve
Release tag Promote to production NXS-GRX Platform Approve
TamamlandıSürüyorOnay bekleniyorQueuedApproval gateTest jobDeploymentYou are here
Every model version is backtested, scored out of sample, compared with established indices and documented in a model card before use. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Workbench

on: watchlist saved

Analyst workbench: watchlist to handoff

Waiting for approvalTriggered by Monitoring team6 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

Grafik
01Set up
02Sense
03İnceleme
04Uygulayın

100%
Zaman çizelgesi
Job0 d2 d4 d6 dTarget
Watchlist and thresholdsYouinstant
Pulse nowcastPulse nowcast7 d
Outlook updateOutlook models7 d
Analyst reviewDuty analyst6 h
Route the alertAlert routerinstant
Handoff to the authorityDuty analyst2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 7.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Adımlar
  1. Watchlist and thresholds

    Set up · You · self-serve
    Entities and domains · Thresholds and channels
    Alert router
  2. Pulse nowcast matrix · entities × domains

    Sense · Pulse nowcast · weekly
    Anomaly against each place’s own history
    Pulse nowcastTested model kernels
  3. Outlook update

    Sense · Outlook models · weekly
    Calibrated probabilities refreshed
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  4. Analyst review approval

    Review · Duty analyst · 6 hours
    Signal checked against sources · Context added
    PostgreSQL defteri (satır düzeyinde güvenlik)
  5. Route the alert

    Deliver · Alert router · < 5 ms
    Email, webhook or dashboard · Never framed as a warning
    Alert routerWebhooks and streaming
  6. Handoff to the authority

    Deliver · Duty analyst · 2 hours
    Names the authority that decides
    PostgreSQL defteri (satır düzeyinde güvenlik)
Çıktılar
Çıktı İş Kim Aşama
Watchlist Watchlist and thresholds Siz Set up
Pulse readings Pulse nowcast Pulse nowcast Sense
Outlook readings Outlook update Outlook models Sense
Reviewed signal Analyst review Duty analyst İnceleme
Alert Route the alert Alert router Uygulayın
Hand-over note Handoff to the authority Duty analyst Uygulayın
TamamlandıSürüyorOnay bekleniyorSıradaOnay kontrol noktasıMatris işiBuradasınız
Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
Signals are information for review, not warnings · every handoff names the authority that decidesNot live yet

01Kurallar

How intelligence is issued

Signals, not warnings

A signal is information for review. Official warnings come from the authorities that issue them.

Reviewed before it reaches you

Every signal passes an analyst gate; the reviewer and the sources are recorded.

Handoff names the authority

Where action may be needed, the handoff names the authority that decides.

Verified in public

Every Outlook model version publishes reliability, Brier score, skill and ROC area.

02Yolculuklar

Intelligence journeys

NXS-GRX · Govern

İnceleme için bir sinyal

How a weekly anomaly becomes a signal for review by competent authorities, never a public warning. 5 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX Intelligence · Monitor

İzleme listeleri ve uyarılarla izleyin

Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. 6 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX Intelligence · Monitor

Ufuk taraması ve brifing

Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review. 6 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX · Govern

Bir senaryo paketi talep edin

Pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100 and structured stress tests for planning and supervisory exercises. 5 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run

03İnsani veriler

What the Humanitarian Data Exchange feed holds

194 countries synced on 2026-10-23 from 226 datasets whose licence passes the gate; 147 resources were left out for their licence. Each country’s page shows the values, with date, provider and licence. Source observations for review, not warnings and not index values.

Tema Ülkeler With ADM1 figures With ADM2 figures Newest reference date
Nüfus 109 98 59 2025-12-31
İhtiyaç sahibi kişiler 22 6 16 2026-12-31
Yoksulluk oranı 107 99 0 2024-12-31
Barındırılan mülteciler 171 0 0 2025-12-31
Yurt dışındaki mülteciler 186 0 0 2025-12-31
Uzun dönem ortalamasına göre yağış 112 109 44 2026-10-10
Humanitarian funding 107 0 0 2026-08-31
Pazarlarda gıda fiyatları 85 0 0 2026-10-14

Bring intelligence to your team

Watchlists, briefings and outlooks are agreed with the Secretariat.

İletişim

Durum

The Global Risks Index’in metodolojisi, yapısı ve tanımları, uygulama için değil, inceleme ve yorum için dolaşıma sunulmuş hazırlık niteliğinde bir çalışma taslağıdır (2026). Bir sürüm yönetilen bir kanıt kesitinden yayımlanana kadar hiçbir değer görünmez; değerler o zaman aralıkları, sınıfları, kaynakları ve düzeltme yollarını taşır. Simülatörler yayımlanan yöntemleri sizin seçtiğiniz sayılarla çalıştırır ve asla bir NXS-GRX değeri göstermez.

NXS-GRX ne değildir

NXS-GRX bir araştırma ve risk analitiği bilgisidir. Kredi ya da ESG derecelendirmesi değildir ve derecelendirme ölçeği kullanmaz; finansal araçlar için gösterge, resmî istatistik, acil durum uyarısı ya da resmî sınıflandırma ve tavsiye değildir. Gerçek kişileri değerlendirmek için kullanılmamalıdır. Risk sınıfları yayımlanmış bir ölçek üzerindeki bantlardır, asla ülkelerin ya da kişilerin sıralaması değildir.

Kurumlar ve kaynaklar

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Her değer, kendi lisanslarını koruyan kaynaklarının atfını taşır. Harici adlara yalnızca birlikte çalışabilirlik amacıyla atıf yapılır. Nexus tarafından yazılan metinlerin yayımlandığında CC BY 4.0 kapsamında olması amaçlanmaktadır.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.