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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · 46 entries · 2026-10

The risk index landscape

What the world’s risk indices measure, how, and where they stop, so NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) can interoperate with them and close the gaps between them. Source series are read where licences admit and never re-weighted.

Gaps NXS-GRX closes Standards
Sayfa GRX-LNDBaskı 2026 Temel SürümüKanıt kapanışı 2026-09-30Değerler henüz yayımlanmadıYöntem v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Families read
9 entries

Çoklu tehlike, afet ve insani risk

INFORM Risk · INFORM Severity, Climate Change, Warning and subnational models · WorldRiskIndex.

Open 10 entries

Çatışma, barış, kırılganlık ve yönetişim

Fragile States Index · Global Peace Index and Global Terrorism Index · ACLED Conflict Index.

Open 7 entries

Ekonomik, egemen ve finansal risk

Country Risk Classification · Debt sustainability frameworks (LIC-DSF, SRDSF) · Sovereign credit ratings.

Open 4 entries

İklim, çevre ve doğa

Environmental Performance Index · Central-bank network climate scenarios · Aqueduct water risk.

Open 4 entries

Sağlık ve gıda

Global Health Security Index · IHR self-assessment (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation · Integrated Food Security Phase Classification and Cadre Harmonisé.

Open 4 entries

Teknoloji, siber ve öncü risk

Global Cybersecurity Index · National Cyber Security Index · AI indices and incident monitors.

Open 3 entries

Algı ve öngörü

Global Risks Report · World Risk Poll · Corporate risk barometers and reinsurer research.

Open 5 entries

Kalkınma ve dayanıklılık

Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index · SDG Index and Social Progress Index · Sendai Framework Monitor.

Açık

46
indices read
8
families
17
gaps addressed
9
standards followed

01Boşluklar

What no index does yet

Established risk and resilience indices, read for interoperability and validity checks. Names are those of their stewards and are cited for reference only; no text of any index is reproduced and no endorsement is implied. Commercial providers are described by category. Indicator counts change between editions; the current methodology note of each index governs. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) relation: SOURCE (a published series NXS-GRX may read as a source where its licence admits, never re-weighted), CROSSWALK (used for validity checks and mapping), COMPLEMENT (a different object NXS-GRX does not reproduce).

Açık NXS-GRX design
No index unifies hazard, vulnerability, conflict, macro-finance, cyber, health, food, nature and technology in one structure Twenty index domain indices in four pillars, one grammar
Systemic and cascading risk is described, not modelled Coupling instrument: typed dependency networks, contagion models, coupled beside standalone composite
Ulus altı kapsama zayıf ve karşılaştırılabilir değil ADM1, ADM2 and one H3 fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity
Belirsizlik nadiren raporlanır; sıralamalar gereğinden fazla yorumlanır 90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol sensitivity on every value; no league tables
Veriler bir ila üç yıl gecikmeli Pulse instrument: weekly nowcast over admitted event streams
Az sayıda endeks tahmin yapar veya geriye dönük test edilir Yayımlanmış doğrulama karnelerine sahip görünüm aracı
Senaryo projeksiyonları nadir ve yalnızca makro düzeyde Pathways instrument: SSP × warming level and transition families to 2030, 2050 and 2100
Algılanan ve ölçülen risk birbirine karışıyor Perception instrument kept separate, with a published gap
Values rarely trace to sources, versions and licences Kayıt düzeyinde köken, lisans kapısı, kamuya açık düzeltme kaydı
Makine erişimi zayıf (PDF ve elektronik tablo sürümleri) API, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files and versioned releases
Lisans kısıtlamaları türev yeniden kullanımı engeller Kaynak bazında lisans kapısı; alıkonulan değerler sayılır
Coverage gaps cluster in fragile and small-island states Coverage vector per country; imputation flagged and capped
Kâğıt üzerindeki kapasite performans sanılıyor Capability ladder from listed to demonstrated in real events
Yöntemler değişir ve karşılaştırılabilirliği bozar Anlamsal sürümler, geriye dönük hesaplanmış seriler, her sürüm için özetler
Neglected domains: AI, space weather, biosecurity, minerals, digital infrastructure, tail risk Exponential technology and strategic systems series; Tail instrument
Endeksler arasında ortak bir sınıflandırma yok hazards with HIPs crosswalks; indicators with 501 crosswalks to source code lists
Ortalamalar kalın kuyrukları gizler Exceedance curves, return-period losses and expected shortfall where loss can be modelled
02Aile

Çoklu tehlike, afet ve insani risk

Endeks Steward Kapsam Sıklık Structure and method Relation Limitation
INFORM Risk EU Joint Research Centre with the IASC reference group 191 countries Annual with mid-year update 3 dimensions, about 15 components, roughly 74 to 80 indicators. Arithmetic means to component level, geometric mean of hazard and exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity; 0–10 Source series No financial, cyber or systemic risk; no intervals; one to three year data lag
INFORM Severity, Climate Change, Warning and subnational models EU Joint Research Centre and partners Crises, projections, admin levels Monthly to irregular INFORM grammar applied to severity, projections and subnational units. INFORM method Eşleme Subnational models are not mutually comparable and share no grid
WorldRiskIndex NGO alliance with a university institute 193 countries Yıllık Exposure × vulnerability (susceptibility, coping, adaptation); more than 100 indicators. Geometric mean; 0–100 Eşleme Population-driven exposure; no conflict hazard
Global Assessment Report and Global Risk Assessment Framework UNDRR Küresel About biennial Thematic assessment; earlier probabilistic global risk model. Probabilistic loss modelling and narrative Tamamlayıcı No standing index or API; systemic risk described rather than measured
ThinkHazard! World Bank GFDRR Admin-2, global Occasional 11 hazards by intensity and frequency. Classification in four classes Eşleme Hazard only; no vulnerability
Climate Risk Index Germanwatch (NGO) About 170 to 190 countries Yıllık 6 loss indicators. Weighted rank sum; single-year and 30-year windows Eşleme Backward-looking; inherits loss-database reporting bias
ND-GAIN University of Notre Dame About 185 countries Yıllık Vulnerability and readiness; 45 indicators. Arithmetic means; 0–100 Eşleme Country level only; readiness bias toward high-income countries
States of Fragility OECD 170+ contexts screened About biennial 6 dimensions, about 50 indicators. Principal components and clustering into classes Eşleme Classifies rather than measures; not predictive
Global Conflict Risk Index EU Joint Research Centre About 130 to 190 countries Annual or semi-annual About 24 structural variables. Logit models of conflict probability; 0–10 Eşleme Structural only; no event nowcast
03Aile

Çatışma, barış, kırılganlık ve yönetişim

Endeks Steward Kapsam Sıklık Structure and method Relation Limitation
Fragile States Index Fund for Peace (NGO) 179 countries Yıllık 12 indicators in 4 groups. Content analysis, quantitative data and review; 0–120 Eşleme Media-volume bias; reuse restricted
Global Peace Index and Global Terrorism Index Institute for Economics and Peace (NGO) About 163 countries Yıllık 23 indicators; 4 terrorism indicators. Banded weighted means; log-banded scores Eşleme Contested weights; source-dataset dependency
ACLED Conflict Index ACLED (NGO) About 240 countries and territories Annual and weekly Deadliness, danger, diffusion, fragmentation. Rank-based severity categories Source series Licence limits redistribution
UCDP Uppsala University Global, geocoded events Annual and monthly Event data with best, low and high fatality estimates. Event coding; no composite Source series Threshold of 25 battle deaths for conflicts
V-Dem University of Gothenburg 202 countries Yıllık More than 500 indicators, 5 high-level indices. Bayesian measurement model with credible intervals; 0–1 Eşleme Expert subjectivity; one-year lag
Worldwide Governance Indicators World Bank About 214 economies Yıllık 6 dimensions from about 35 sources. Unobserved components with standard errors Source series Perception-based; correlated source errors
Corruption Perceptions Index Transparency International (NGO) 180 countries Yıllık 13 expert and business sources. Standardised mean with confidence intervals; 0–100 Eşleme No-derivatives licence constrains reuse
Global Organised Crime Index GI-TOC (NGO) 193 countries Biennial Criminal markets, actors and resilience. Expert assessment; 1–10 Eşleme Expert-driven
Basel AML Index Basel Institute on Governance (NGO) About 160 to 200 jurisdictions Yıllık 17 to 18 indicators in 5 domains. Weighted mean; 0–10 Eşleme Depends on evaluation cycles
Bertelsmann Transformation Index and Ibrahim Index of African Governance Temeller 137 and 54 countries Biennial Expert criteria; about 96 indicators. Expert scores; arithmetic means Eşleme Partial coverage
04Aile

Ekonomik, egemen ve finansal risk

Endeks Steward Kapsam Sıklık Structure and method Relation Limitation
Country Risk Classification OECD (export credits arrangement) About 200 countries Three times a year Model plus expert adjustment. Classes 0–7 Eşleme Transfer and convertibility risk only; model unpublished
Debt sustainability frameworks (LIC-DSF, SRDSF) IMF ve Dünya Bankası Low-income and market-access countries Per review Thresholds, stress tests, fan charts. Mechanical signals plus judgement Source series Per-country, not a comparable index; NXS-GRX never reproduces the published signals
Sovereign credit ratings Commercial rating agencies (category) About 130 to 150 sovereigns Ongoing Committee scorecards. Letter grades Tamamlayıcı Paywalled; NXS-GRX is not a rating and uses no rating scale
Early-warning indicators and financial stress indices BIS and central banks 40+ economies Daily to quarterly Credit gaps, debt service, stress composites. Gaps, thresholds, portfolio weights Source series Advanced economies mostly
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Federal Reserve Bank of New York Küresel Monthly 27 variables. Principal components; standard deviations Eşleme No country decomposition
Logistics Performance Index World Bank 139 countries Every 3 to 5 years 6 dimensions plus tracking KPIs. Survey; 1–5 Eşleme Infrequent; perception-based
Economic complexity University research centres About 130 to 145 countries Yıllık Export diversity and ubiquity. Eigenvector method Eşleme Structural signal, not risk
05Aile

İklim, çevre ve doğa

Endeks Steward Kapsam Sıklık Structure and method Relation Limitation
Environmental Performance Index Yale and Columbia universities 180 countries About biennial 58 indicators, 11 issue categories. Weighted mean; 0–100 Eşleme Performance, not risk
Central-bank network climate scenarios Network of central banks and supervisors Global, regional, country About annual 6 to 7 scenario families. Integrated assessment and macro models Source series Pathways, not an index; physical risk understated
Aqueduct water risk World Resources Institute (NGO) Global sub-basins Occasional 13 indicators. Weighted; 0–5 with projections Source series Coarse units; ageing layers
Biodiversity intactness, ENCORE and the Ocean Health Index Museums, UNEP-WCMC, universities Global grid, sectors, EEZs Varies Models, dependency matrices, goals. Statistical models; materiality ratings; 0–100 Eşleme Weak link to local ground truth
06Aile

Sağlık ve gıda

Endeks Steward Kapsam Sıklık Structure and method Relation Limitation
Global Health Security Index NGO and university partnership 195 ülke 2019 and 2021 6 categories, 37 indicators. Weighted mean; 0–100 Eşleme Measured capacity on paper; not updated since 2021
IHR self-assessment (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation WHO 196 States Parties Annual and ad hoc 15 capacities; 19 technical areas. Self and external scoring; 1–5 Source series Self-reporting bias
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification and Cadre Harmonisé Multi-agency technical partnership Assessed areas Per country cycle Phases 1–5, current and projected. Evidence convergence by technical working groups Source series Limited to assessed areas
Global Hunger Index and Global Report on Food Crises NGOs; FAO, WFP and EU network About 50 to 136 countries Yıllık 4 indicators; headcounts. Standardised sum; aggregation Eşleme Three-year lag; aggregation rather than scoring
07Aile

Teknoloji, siber ve öncü risk

Endeks Steward Kapsam Sıklık Structure and method Relation Limitation
Global Cybersecurity Index ITU 194 countries About biennial 5 pillars. Questionnaire; 5 tiers since 2024 Source series Measures commitment, not threat or incidents
National Cyber Security Index Government-backed academy 170+ countries Rolling 12 capacities, 46 indicators. Evidence-checked; 0–100 Eşleme Capacity only
AI indices and incident monitors Universities, OECD and NGOs Varies Annual or continuous Descriptive indicators, responsible-AI scores, incident data. Mixed Eşleme No probabilistic national AI-risk index exists
Global catastrophic risk assessments University centres and foundations Küresel Irregular Narrative and elicited probabilities. Expert elicitation Tamamlayıcı No standardised country index
08Aile

Algı ve öngörü

Endeks Steward Kapsam Sıklık Structure and method Relation Limitation
Global Risks Report World Economic Forum (not-for-profit foundation) Küresel Yıllık Survey of experts rating about 33 global risks over 2- and 10-year horizons. Perception survey Eşleme Perception only; no probabilities; respondent pool skewed
World Risk Poll Lloyd’s Register Foundation (charity) About 142 countries Biennial Experienced and perceived risk. Household poll Eşleme Survey cadence
Corporate risk barometers and reinsurer research Commercial insurers and reinsurers (category) Küresel Yıllık Surveys and loss databases. Perception and proprietary loss data Tamamlayıcı Proprietary inputs
09Aile

Kalkınma ve dayanıklılık

Endeks Steward Kapsam Sıklık Structure and method Relation Limitation
Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index UNDP with OPHI 193 and about 110 countries Yıllık 3 dimensions; 10 indicators. Geometric mean; Alkire–Foster Source series Survey lags
SDG Index and Social Progress Index UN SDSN; a non-profit About 167 to 170 countries Yıllık 17 goals; 12 components. Arithmetic means; PCA weights Eşleme Outcome dashboards, not risk
Sendai Framework Monitor UNDRR Reporting countries Yıllık 38 indicators under 7 targets. National self-reporting Source series Uneven reporting
Global Innovation Index WIPO About 133 countries Yıllık 7 pillars, about 80 indicators. Arithmetic means with a published statistical audit Eşleme Innovation, not risk; a model of audit transparency
Business Ready (B-READY) World Bank 101 economies (2025), expanding Yıllık 3 pillars over 10 topics. Expert questionnaires and firm surveys; 0–100 Source series Coverage still expanding
10Standartlar

Standards NXS-GRX follows

STDOECD/JRC Handbook on Constructing Composite IndicatorsThe ten construction steps NXS-GRX follows STDJRC COIN statistical audit practiceCorrelation structure, coherence, Monte Carlo uncertainty and rank stability STDISO 31000 and IEC 31010Risk-management vocabulary and assessment techniques (referenced; no conformance claimed) STDSendai Framework for Disaster Risk ReductionTargets A–G and 38 indicators as crosswalk keys STDUNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025)Canonical hazard keys through Hazard Standard crosswalks STDIRDR peril classificationCrosswalk for loss databases STDSDMX (ISO 17369)Observation keys, code lists and statistical exchange STDUN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics and the NQAF manualQuality dimensions (relevance, accuracy, timeliness, accessibility, coherence) STDW3C PROV-O, DCAT, STAC, OGC API and FAIRProvenance, catalogue, geospatial and access standards

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Durum

The Global Risks Index’in metodolojisi, yapısı ve tanımları, uygulama için değil, inceleme ve yorum için dolaşıma sunulmuş hazırlık niteliğinde bir çalışma taslağıdır (2026). Bir sürüm yönetilen bir kanıt kesitinden yayımlanana kadar hiçbir değer görünmez; değerler o zaman aralıkları, sınıfları, kaynakları ve düzeltme yollarını taşır. Simülatörler yayımlanan yöntemleri sizin seçtiğiniz sayılarla çalıştırır ve asla bir NXS-GRX değeri göstermez.

NXS-GRX ne değildir

NXS-GRX bir araştırma ve risk analitiği bilgisidir. Kredi ya da ESG derecelendirmesi değildir ve derecelendirme ölçeği kullanmaz; finansal araçlar için gösterge, resmî istatistik, acil durum uyarısı ya da resmî sınıflandırma ve tavsiye değildir. Gerçek kişileri değerlendirmek için kullanılmamalıdır. Risk sınıfları yayımlanmış bir ölçek üzerindeki bantlardır, asla ülkelerin ya da kişilerin sıralaması değildir.

Kurumlar ve kaynaklar

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Her değer, kendi lisanslarını koruyan kaynaklarının atfını taşır. Harici adlara yalnızca birlikte çalışabilirlik amacıyla atıf yapılır. Nexus tarafından yazılan metinlerin yayımlandığında CC BY 4.0 kapsamında olması amaçlanmaktadır.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.