The risk index landscape
What the world’s risk indices measure, how, and where they stop, so NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) can interoperate with them and close the gaps between them. Source series are read where licences admit and never re-weighted.
Multi-hazard disaster and humanitarian risk
INFORM Risk · INFORM Severity, Climate Change, Warning and subnational models · WorldRiskIndex.
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10 entriesConflict, peace, fragility and governance
Fragile States Index · Global Peace Index and Global Terrorism Index · ACLED Conflict Index.
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7 entriesEconomic, sovereign and financial risk
Country Risk Classification · Debt sustainability frameworks (LIC-DSF, SRDSF) · Sovereign credit ratings.
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4 entriesClimate, environment and nature
Environmental Performance Index · Central-bank network climate scenarios · Aqueduct water risk.
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4 entriesHealth and food
Global Health Security Index · IHR self-assessment (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation · Integrated Food Security Phase Classification and Cadre Harmonisé.
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4 entriesTechnology, cyber and frontier risk
Global Cybersecurity Index · National Cyber Security Index · AI indices and incident monitors.
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3 entriesPerception and foresight
Global Risks Report · World Risk Poll · Corporate risk barometers and reinsurer research.
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5 entriesDevelopment and resilience
Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index · SDG Index and Social Progress Index · Sendai Framework Monitor.
کھلا
What no index does yet
Established risk and resilience indices, read for interoperability and validity checks. Names are those of their stewards and are cited for reference only; no text of any index is reproduced and no endorsement is implied. Commercial providers are described by category. Indicator counts change between editions; the current methodology note of each index governs. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) relation: SOURCE (a published series NXS-GRX may read as a source where its licence admits, never re-weighted), CROSSWALK (used for validity checks and mapping), COMPLEMENT (a different object NXS-GRX does not reproduce).
| خلا | NXS-GRX design |
|---|---|
| No index unifies hazard, vulnerability, conflict, macro-finance, cyber, health, food, nature and technology in one structure | Twenty index domain indices in four pillars, one grammar |
| Systemic and cascading risk is described, not modelled | Coupling instrument: typed dependency networks, contagion models, coupled beside standalone composite |
| Subnational coverage is thin and not comparable | ADM1, ADM2 and one H3 fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity |
| Uncertainty is rarely reported; ranks are over-read | 90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol sensitivity on every value; no league tables |
| Data lags one to three years | Pulse instrument: weekly nowcast over admitted event streams |
| Few indices forecast or are back-tested | Outlook instrument with published verification scorecards |
| Scenario projections are rare and macro-only | Pathways instrument: SSP × warming level and transition families to 2030, 2050 and 2100 |
| Perceived and measured risk are blurred | Perception instrument kept separate, with a published gap |
| Values rarely trace to sources, versions and licences | Record-level provenance, licence gate, public correction log |
| Machine access is weak (PDF and spreadsheet releases) | API, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files and versioned releases |
| Licence restrictions block derived reuse | Per-source licence gate; withheld values counted |
| Coverage gaps cluster in fragile and small-island states | Coverage vector per country; imputation flagged and capped |
| Capacity on paper is mistaken for performance | Capability ladder from listed to demonstrated in real events |
| Methods change and break comparability | Semantic versions, back-cast series, digests per release |
| Neglected domains: AI, space weather, biosecurity, minerals, digital infrastructure, tail risk | Exponential technology and strategic systems series; Tail instrument |
| No shared taxonomy across indices | hazards with HIPs crosswalks; indicators with 501 crosswalks to source code lists |
| Means hide fat tails | Exceedance curves, return-period losses and expected shortfall where loss can be modelled |
Multi-hazard disaster and humanitarian risk
| اشاریہ | Steward | احاطہ | Cadence | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFORM Risk | EU Joint Research Centre with the IASC reference group | 191 countries | Annual with mid-year update | 3 dimensions, about 15 components, roughly 74 to 80 indicators. Arithmetic means to component level, geometric mean of hazard and exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity; 0–10 | Source series | No financial, cyber or systemic risk; no intervals; one to three year data lag |
| INFORM Severity, Climate Change, Warning and subnational models | EU Joint Research Centre and partners | Crises, projections, admin levels | Monthly to irregular | INFORM grammar applied to severity, projections and subnational units. INFORM method | باہمی ربط | Subnational models are not mutually comparable and share no grid |
| WorldRiskIndex | NGO alliance with a university institute | 193 countries | سالانہ | Exposure × vulnerability (susceptibility, coping, adaptation); more than 100 indicators. Geometric mean; 0–100 | باہمی ربط | Population-driven exposure; no conflict hazard |
| Global Assessment Report and Global Risk Assessment Framework | UNDRR | Global | About biennial | Thematic assessment; earlier probabilistic global risk model. Probabilistic loss modelling and narrative | Complement | No standing index or API; systemic risk described rather than measured |
| ThinkHazard! | World Bank GFDRR | Admin-2, global | Occasional | 11 hazards by intensity and frequency. Classification in four classes | باہمی ربط | Hazard only; no vulnerability |
| Climate Risk Index | Germanwatch (NGO) | About 170 to 190 countries | سالانہ | 6 loss indicators. Weighted rank sum; single-year and 30-year windows | باہمی ربط | Backward-looking; inherits loss-database reporting bias |
| ND-GAIN | University of Notre Dame | About 185 countries | سالانہ | Vulnerability and readiness; 45 indicators. Arithmetic means; 0–100 | باہمی ربط | Country level only; readiness bias toward high-income countries |
| States of Fragility | OECD | 170+ contexts screened | About biennial | 6 dimensions, about 50 indicators. Principal components and clustering into classes | باہمی ربط | Classifies rather than measures; not predictive |
| Global Conflict Risk Index | EU Joint Research Centre | About 130 to 190 countries | Annual or semi-annual | About 24 structural variables. Logit models of conflict probability; 0–10 | باہمی ربط | Structural only; no event nowcast |
Conflict, peace, fragility and governance
| اشاریہ | Steward | احاطہ | Cadence | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragile States Index | Fund for Peace (NGO) | 179 countries | سالانہ | 12 indicators in 4 groups. Content analysis, quantitative data and review; 0–120 | باہمی ربط | Media-volume bias; reuse restricted |
| Global Peace Index and Global Terrorism Index | Institute for Economics and Peace (NGO) | About 163 countries | سالانہ | 23 indicators; 4 terrorism indicators. Banded weighted means; log-banded scores | باہمی ربط | Contested weights; source-dataset dependency |
| ACLED Conflict Index | ACLED (NGO) | About 240 countries and territories | Annual and weekly | Deadliness, danger, diffusion, fragmentation. Rank-based severity categories | Source series | Licence limits redistribution |
| UCDP | Uppsala University | Global, geocoded events | Annual and monthly | Event data with best, low and high fatality estimates. Event coding; no composite | Source series | Threshold of 25 battle deaths for conflicts |
| V-Dem | University of Gothenburg | 202 countries | سالانہ | More than 500 indicators, 5 high-level indices. Bayesian measurement model with credible intervals; 0–1 | باہمی ربط | Expert subjectivity; one-year lag |
| Worldwide Governance Indicators | World Bank | About 214 economies | سالانہ | 6 dimensions from about 35 sources. Unobserved components with standard errors | Source series | Perception-based; correlated source errors |
| Corruption Perceptions Index | Transparency International (NGO) | 180 countries | سالانہ | 13 expert and business sources. Standardised mean with confidence intervals; 0–100 | باہمی ربط | No-derivatives licence constrains reuse |
| Global Organised Crime Index | GI-TOC (NGO) | 193 countries | Biennial | Criminal markets, actors and resilience. Expert assessment; 1–10 | باہمی ربط | Expert-driven |
| Basel AML Index | Basel Institute on Governance (NGO) | About 160 to 200 jurisdictions | سالانہ | 17 to 18 indicators in 5 domains. Weighted mean; 0–10 | باہمی ربط | Depends on evaluation cycles |
| Bertelsmann Transformation Index and Ibrahim Index of African Governance | بنیادیں | 137 and 54 countries | Biennial | Expert criteria; about 96 indicators. Expert scores; arithmetic means | باہمی ربط | Partial coverage |
Economic, sovereign and financial risk
| اشاریہ | Steward | احاطہ | Cadence | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country Risk Classification | OECD (export credits arrangement) | About 200 countries | Three times a year | Model plus expert adjustment. Classes 0–7 | باہمی ربط | Transfer and convertibility risk only; model unpublished |
| Debt sustainability frameworks (LIC-DSF, SRDSF) | IMF and World Bank | Low-income and market-access countries | Per review | Thresholds, stress tests, fan charts. Mechanical signals plus judgement | Source series | Per-country, not a comparable index; NXS-GRX never reproduces the published signals |
| Sovereign credit ratings | Commercial rating agencies (category) | About 130 to 150 sovereigns | Ongoing | Committee scorecards. Letter grades | Complement | Paywalled; NXS-GRX is not a rating and uses no rating scale |
| Early-warning indicators and financial stress indices | BIS and central banks | 40+ economies | Daily to quarterly | Credit gaps, debt service, stress composites. Gaps, thresholds, portfolio weights | Source series | Advanced economies mostly |
| Global Supply Chain Pressure Index | Federal Reserve Bank of New York | Global | Monthly | 27 variables. Principal components; standard deviations | باہمی ربط | No country decomposition |
| Logistics Performance Index | World Bank | 139 countries | Every 3 to 5 years | 6 dimensions plus tracking KPIs. Survey; 1–5 | باہمی ربط | Infrequent; perception-based |
| Economic complexity | University research centres | About 130 to 145 countries | سالانہ | Export diversity and ubiquity. Eigenvector method | باہمی ربط | Structural signal, not risk |
Climate, environment and nature
| اشاریہ | Steward | احاطہ | Cadence | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Environmental Performance Index | Yale and Columbia universities | 180 countries | About biennial | 58 indicators, 11 issue categories. Weighted mean; 0–100 | باہمی ربط | Performance, not risk |
| Central-bank network climate scenarios | Network of central banks and supervisors | Global, regional, country | About annual | 6 to 7 scenario families. Integrated assessment and macro models | Source series | Pathways, not an index; physical risk understated |
| Aqueduct water risk | World Resources Institute (NGO) | Global sub-basins | Occasional | 13 indicators. Weighted; 0–5 with projections | Source series | Coarse units; ageing layers |
| Biodiversity intactness, ENCORE and the Ocean Health Index | Museums, UNEP-WCMC, universities | Global grid, sectors, EEZs | Varies | Models, dependency matrices, goals. Statistical models; materiality ratings; 0–100 | باہمی ربط | Weak link to local ground truth |
Health and food
| اشاریہ | Steward | احاطہ | Cadence | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Health Security Index | NGO and university partnership | 195 countries | 2019 and 2021 | 6 categories, 37 indicators. Weighted mean; 0–100 | باہمی ربط | Measured capacity on paper; not updated since 2021 |
| IHR self-assessment (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation | WHO | 196 States Parties | Annual and ad hoc | 15 capacities; 19 technical areas. Self and external scoring; 1–5 | Source series | Self-reporting bias |
| Integrated Food Security Phase Classification and Cadre Harmonisé | Multi-agency technical partnership | Assessed areas | Per country cycle | Phases 1–5, current and projected. Evidence convergence by technical working groups | Source series | Limited to assessed areas |
| Global Hunger Index and Global Report on Food Crises | NGOs; FAO, WFP and EU network | About 50 to 136 countries | سالانہ | 4 indicators; headcounts. Standardised sum; aggregation | باہمی ربط | Three-year lag; aggregation rather than scoring |
Technology, cyber and frontier risk
| اشاریہ | Steward | احاطہ | Cadence | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Cybersecurity Index | ITU | 194 countries | About biennial | 5 pillars. Questionnaire; 5 tiers since 2024 | Source series | Measures commitment, not threat or incidents |
| National Cyber Security Index | Government-backed academy | 170+ countries | Rolling | 12 capacities, 46 indicators. Evidence-checked; 0–100 | باہمی ربط | Capacity only |
| AI indices and incident monitors | Universities, OECD and NGOs | Varies | Annual or continuous | Descriptive indicators, responsible-AI scores, incident data. Mixed | باہمی ربط | No probabilistic national AI-risk index exists |
| Global catastrophic risk assessments | University centres and foundations | Global | Irregular | Narrative and elicited probabilities. Expert elicitation | Complement | No standardised country index |
Perception and foresight
| اشاریہ | Steward | احاطہ | Cadence | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Risks Report | World Economic Forum (not-for-profit foundation) | Global | سالانہ | Survey of experts rating about 33 global risks over 2- and 10-year horizons. Perception survey | باہمی ربط | Perception only; no probabilities; respondent pool skewed |
| World Risk Poll | Lloyd’s Register Foundation (charity) | About 142 countries | Biennial | Experienced and perceived risk. Household poll | باہمی ربط | Survey cadence |
| Corporate risk barometers and reinsurer research | Commercial insurers and reinsurers (category) | Global | سالانہ | Surveys and loss databases. Perception and proprietary loss data | Complement | Proprietary inputs |
Development and resilience
| اشاریہ | Steward | احاطہ | Cadence | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index | UNDP with OPHI | 193 and about 110 countries | سالانہ | 3 dimensions; 10 indicators. Geometric mean; Alkire–Foster | Source series | Survey lags |
| SDG Index and Social Progress Index | UN SDSN; a non-profit | About 167 to 170 countries | سالانہ | 17 goals; 12 components. Arithmetic means; PCA weights | باہمی ربط | Outcome dashboards, not risk |
| Sendai Framework Monitor | UNDRR | Reporting countries | سالانہ | 38 indicators under 7 targets. National self-reporting | Source series | Uneven reporting |
| Global Innovation Index | WIPO | About 133 countries | سالانہ | 7 pillars, about 80 indicators. Arithmetic means with a published statistical audit | باہمی ربط | Innovation, not risk; a model of audit transparency |
| Business Ready (B-READY) | World Bank | 101 economies (2025), expanding | سالانہ | 3 pillars over 10 topics. Expert questionnaires and firm surveys; 0–100 | Source series | Coverage still expanding |
Standards NXS-GRX follows
Steward of an index listed here?
Tell us if a description is wrong or out of date; corrections are made in the open.
حیثیت
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.