The Global Risks Index · 46 entries · 2026-10
The risk index landscape
What the world’s risk indices measure, how, and where they stop, so NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) can interoperate with them and close the gaps between them. Source series are read where licences admit and never re-weighted.
الصفحة GRX-LNDالطبعة إصدار خط الأساس 2026إقفال الأدلة 2026-09-30القيم لم تُنشر بعدالمنهجية v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Families read
9 entries
مخاطر الكوارث والمخاطر الإنسانية الناجمة عن أكثر من خطر
INFORM Risk · INFORM Severity, Climate Change, Warning and subnational models · WorldRiskIndex.
Open
10 entriesالنزاع والسلام والهشاشة والحوكمة
Fragile States Index · Global Peace Index and Global Terrorism Index · ACLED Conflict Index.
Open
7 entriesالمخاطر الاقتصادية والسيادية والمالية
Country Risk Classification · Debt sustainability frameworks (LIC-DSF, SRDSF) · Sovereign credit ratings.
Open
4 entriesالمناخ والبيئة والطبيعة
Environmental Performance Index · Central-bank network climate scenarios · Aqueduct water risk.
Open
4 entriesالصحة والغذاء
Global Health Security Index · IHR self-assessment (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation · Integrated Food Security Phase Classification and Cadre Harmonisé.
Open
4 entriesمخاطر التقنية والأمن السيبراني والتقنيات الرائدة
Global Cybersecurity Index · National Cyber Security Index · AI indices and incident monitors.
Open
3 entriesالإدراك والاستشراف
Global Risks Report · World Risk Poll · Corporate risk barometers and reinsurer research.
Open
5 entriesالتنمية والصمود
Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index · SDG Index and Social Progress Index · Sendai Framework Monitor.
مفتوح
46
indices read
8
families
17
gaps addressed
9
standards followed
01الفجوات
What no index does yet
Established risk and resilience indices, read for interoperability and validity checks. Names are those of their stewards and are cited for reference only; no text of any index is reproduced and no endorsement is implied. Commercial providers are described by category. Indicator counts change between editions; the current methodology note of each index governs. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) relation: SOURCE (a published series NXS-GRX may read as a source where its licence admits, never re-weighted), CROSSWALK (used for validity checks and mapping), COMPLEMENT (a different object NXS-GRX does not reproduce).
| الفجوة | NXS-GRX design |
|---|---|
| No index unifies hazard, vulnerability, conflict, macro-finance, cyber, health, food, nature and technology in one structure | Twenty index domain indices in four pillars, one grammar |
| Systemic and cascading risk is described, not modelled | Coupling instrument: typed dependency networks, contagion models, coupled beside standalone composite |
| التغطية دون الوطنية ضعيفة وغير قابلة للمقارنة | ADM1, ADM2 and one H3 fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity |
| نادرًا ما يُبلَّغ عن عدم اليقين؛ ويُبالَغ في قراءة الترتيب | 90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol sensitivity on every value; no league tables |
| تتأخر البيانات من سنة إلى ثلاث سنوات | Pulse instrument: weekly nowcast over admitted event streams |
| قليل من المؤشرات يتنبأ أو يُختبر بأثر رجعي | أداة التوقعات مع بطاقات تحقق منشورة |
| إسقاطات السيناريوهات نادرة وكلية فقط | Pathways instrument: SSP × warming level and transition families to 2030, 2050 and 2100 |
| الخلط بين المخاطر المُدرَكة والمقيسة | Perception instrument kept separate, with a published gap |
| Values rarely trace to sources, versions and licences | بيان المصدر على مستوى السجل، وبوابة الترخيص، وسجل التصويبات العام |
| الوصول الآلي ضعيف (إصدارات PDF وجداول بيانات) | API, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files and versioned releases |
| قيود الترخيص تمنع إعادة الاستخدام المشتقة | بوابة ترخيص لكل مصدر؛ وتُحتسب القيم المحجوبة |
| Coverage gaps cluster in fragile and small-island states | Coverage vector per country; imputation flagged and capped |
| تُحسب القدرة على الورق أداءً خطأً | Capability ladder from listed to demonstrated in real events |
| تتغير الطرق فتنكسر القابلية للمقارنة | إصدارات دلالية، وسلاسل محسوبة بأثر رجعي، وبصمات لكل إصدار |
| Neglected domains: AI, space weather, biosecurity, minerals, digital infrastructure, tail risk | Exponential technology and strategic systems series; Tail instrument |
| لا تصنيف مشترك بين المؤشرات | hazards with HIPs crosswalks; indicators with 501 crosswalks to source code lists |
| المتوسطات تخفي الذيول السميكة | Exceedance curves, return-period losses and expected shortfall where loss can be modelled |
02العائلة
مخاطر الكوارث والمخاطر الإنسانية الناجمة عن أكثر من خطر
| المؤشر | الراعي | التغطية | الوتيرة | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFORM Risk | EU Joint Research Centre with the IASC reference group | 191 countries | Annual with mid-year update | 3 dimensions, about 15 components, roughly 74 to 80 indicators. Arithmetic means to component level, geometric mean of hazard and exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity; 0–10 | Source series | No financial, cyber or systemic risk; no intervals; one to three year data lag |
| INFORM Severity, Climate Change, Warning and subnational models | EU Joint Research Centre and partners | Crises, projections, admin levels | Monthly to irregular | INFORM grammar applied to severity, projections and subnational units. INFORM method | المواءمة المرجعية | Subnational models are not mutually comparable and share no grid |
| WorldRiskIndex | NGO alliance with a university institute | 193 countries | دورة تشغيل | Exposure × vulnerability (susceptibility, coping, adaptation); more than 100 indicators. Geometric mean; 0–100 | المواءمة المرجعية | Population-driven exposure; no conflict hazard |
| Global Assessment Report and Global Risk Assessment Framework | UNDRR | عالمي | About biennial | Thematic assessment; earlier probabilistic global risk model. Probabilistic loss modelling and narrative | المكمل | No standing index or API; systemic risk described rather than measured |
| ThinkHazard! | World Bank GFDRR | Admin-2, global | Occasional | 11 hazards by intensity and frequency. Classification in four classes | المواءمة المرجعية | Hazard only; no vulnerability |
| Climate Risk Index | Germanwatch (NGO) | About 170 to 190 countries | دورة تشغيل | 6 loss indicators. Weighted rank sum; single-year and 30-year windows | المواءمة المرجعية | Backward-looking; inherits loss-database reporting bias |
| ND-GAIN | University of Notre Dame | About 185 countries | دورة تشغيل | Vulnerability and readiness; 45 indicators. Arithmetic means; 0–100 | المواءمة المرجعية | Country level only; readiness bias toward high-income countries |
| States of Fragility | OECD | 170+ contexts screened | About biennial | 6 dimensions, about 50 indicators. Principal components and clustering into classes | المواءمة المرجعية | Classifies rather than measures; not predictive |
| Global Conflict Risk Index | EU Joint Research Centre | About 130 to 190 countries | Annual or semi-annual | About 24 structural variables. Logit models of conflict probability; 0–10 | المواءمة المرجعية | Structural only; no event nowcast |
03العائلة
النزاع والسلام والهشاشة والحوكمة
| المؤشر | الراعي | التغطية | الوتيرة | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragile States Index | Fund for Peace (NGO) | 179 countries | دورة تشغيل | 12 indicators in 4 groups. Content analysis, quantitative data and review; 0–120 | المواءمة المرجعية | Media-volume bias; reuse restricted |
| Global Peace Index and Global Terrorism Index | Institute for Economics and Peace (NGO) | About 163 countries | دورة تشغيل | 23 indicators; 4 terrorism indicators. Banded weighted means; log-banded scores | المواءمة المرجعية | Contested weights; source-dataset dependency |
| ACLED Conflict Index | ACLED (NGO) | About 240 countries and territories | Annual and weekly | Deadliness, danger, diffusion, fragmentation. Rank-based severity categories | Source series | Licence limits redistribution |
| UCDP | Uppsala University | Global, geocoded events | Annual and monthly | Event data with best, low and high fatality estimates. Event coding; no composite | Source series | Threshold of 25 battle deaths for conflicts |
| V-Dem | University of Gothenburg | 202 countries | دورة تشغيل | More than 500 indicators, 5 high-level indices. Bayesian measurement model with credible intervals; 0–1 | المواءمة المرجعية | Expert subjectivity; one-year lag |
| Worldwide Governance Indicators | World Bank | About 214 economies | دورة تشغيل | 6 dimensions from about 35 sources. Unobserved components with standard errors | Source series | Perception-based; correlated source errors |
| Corruption Perceptions Index | Transparency International (NGO) | 180 countries | دورة تشغيل | 13 expert and business sources. Standardised mean with confidence intervals; 0–100 | المواءمة المرجعية | No-derivatives licence constrains reuse |
| Global Organised Crime Index | GI-TOC (NGO) | 193 countries | Biennial | Criminal markets, actors and resilience. Expert assessment; 1–10 | المواءمة المرجعية | Expert-driven |
| Basel AML Index | Basel Institute on Governance (NGO) | About 160 to 200 jurisdictions | دورة تشغيل | 17 to 18 indicators in 5 domains. Weighted mean; 0–10 | المواءمة المرجعية | Depends on evaluation cycles |
| Bertelsmann Transformation Index and Ibrahim Index of African Governance | الأسس | 137 and 54 countries | Biennial | Expert criteria; about 96 indicators. Expert scores; arithmetic means | المواءمة المرجعية | Partial coverage |
04العائلة
المخاطر الاقتصادية والسيادية والمالية
| المؤشر | الراعي | التغطية | الوتيرة | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country Risk Classification | OECD (export credits arrangement) | About 200 countries | Three times a year | Model plus expert adjustment. Classes 0–7 | المواءمة المرجعية | Transfer and convertibility risk only; model unpublished |
| Debt sustainability frameworks (LIC-DSF, SRDSF) | صندوق النقد الدولي (IMF) والبنك الدولي | Low-income and market-access countries | Per review | Thresholds, stress tests, fan charts. Mechanical signals plus judgement | Source series | Per-country, not a comparable index; NXS-GRX never reproduces the published signals |
| Sovereign credit ratings | Commercial rating agencies (category) | About 130 to 150 sovereigns | Ongoing | Committee scorecards. Letter grades | المكمل | Paywalled; NXS-GRX is not a rating and uses no rating scale |
| Early-warning indicators and financial stress indices | BIS and central banks | 40+ economies | Daily to quarterly | Credit gaps, debt service, stress composites. Gaps, thresholds, portfolio weights | Source series | Advanced economies mostly |
| Global Supply Chain Pressure Index | Federal Reserve Bank of New York | عالمي | Monthly | 27 variables. Principal components; standard deviations | المواءمة المرجعية | No country decomposition |
| Logistics Performance Index | World Bank | 139 countries | Every 3 to 5 years | 6 dimensions plus tracking KPIs. Survey; 1–5 | المواءمة المرجعية | Infrequent; perception-based |
| Economic complexity | University research centres | About 130 to 145 countries | دورة تشغيل | Export diversity and ubiquity. Eigenvector method | المواءمة المرجعية | Structural signal, not risk |
05العائلة
المناخ والبيئة والطبيعة
| المؤشر | الراعي | التغطية | الوتيرة | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Environmental Performance Index | Yale and Columbia universities | 180 countries | About biennial | 58 indicators, 11 issue categories. Weighted mean; 0–100 | المواءمة المرجعية | Performance, not risk |
| Central-bank network climate scenarios | Network of central banks and supervisors | Global, regional, country | About annual | 6 to 7 scenario families. Integrated assessment and macro models | Source series | Pathways, not an index; physical risk understated |
| Aqueduct water risk | World Resources Institute (NGO) | Global sub-basins | Occasional | 13 indicators. Weighted; 0–5 with projections | Source series | Coarse units; ageing layers |
| Biodiversity intactness, ENCORE and the Ocean Health Index | Museums, UNEP-WCMC, universities | Global grid, sectors, EEZs | Varies | Models, dependency matrices, goals. Statistical models; materiality ratings; 0–100 | المواءمة المرجعية | Weak link to local ground truth |
06العائلة
الصحة والغذاء
| المؤشر | الراعي | التغطية | الوتيرة | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Health Security Index | NGO and university partnership | 195 بلدًا | 2019 and 2021 | 6 categories, 37 indicators. Weighted mean; 0–100 | المواءمة المرجعية | Measured capacity on paper; not updated since 2021 |
| IHR self-assessment (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation | WHO | 196 States Parties | Annual and ad hoc | 15 capacities; 19 technical areas. Self and external scoring; 1–5 | Source series | Self-reporting bias |
| Integrated Food Security Phase Classification and Cadre Harmonisé | Multi-agency technical partnership | Assessed areas | Per country cycle | Phases 1–5, current and projected. Evidence convergence by technical working groups | Source series | Limited to assessed areas |
| Global Hunger Index and Global Report on Food Crises | NGOs; FAO, WFP and EU network | About 50 to 136 countries | دورة تشغيل | 4 indicators; headcounts. Standardised sum; aggregation | المواءمة المرجعية | Three-year lag; aggregation rather than scoring |
07العائلة
مخاطر التقنية والأمن السيبراني والتقنيات الرائدة
| المؤشر | الراعي | التغطية | الوتيرة | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Cybersecurity Index | ITU | 194 countries | About biennial | 5 pillars. Questionnaire; 5 tiers since 2024 | Source series | Measures commitment, not threat or incidents |
| National Cyber Security Index | Government-backed academy | 170+ countries | Rolling | 12 capacities, 46 indicators. Evidence-checked; 0–100 | المواءمة المرجعية | Capacity only |
| AI indices and incident monitors | Universities, OECD and NGOs | Varies | Annual or continuous | Descriptive indicators, responsible-AI scores, incident data. Mixed | المواءمة المرجعية | No probabilistic national AI-risk index exists |
| Global catastrophic risk assessments | University centres and foundations | عالمي | Irregular | Narrative and elicited probabilities. Expert elicitation | المكمل | No standardised country index |
08العائلة
الإدراك والاستشراف
| المؤشر | الراعي | التغطية | الوتيرة | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Risks Report | World Economic Forum (not-for-profit foundation) | عالمي | دورة تشغيل | Survey of experts rating about 33 global risks over 2- and 10-year horizons. Perception survey | المواءمة المرجعية | Perception only; no probabilities; respondent pool skewed |
| World Risk Poll | Lloyd’s Register Foundation (charity) | About 142 countries | Biennial | Experienced and perceived risk. Household poll | المواءمة المرجعية | Survey cadence |
| Corporate risk barometers and reinsurer research | Commercial insurers and reinsurers (category) | عالمي | دورة تشغيل | Surveys and loss databases. Perception and proprietary loss data | المكمل | Proprietary inputs |
09العائلة
التنمية والصمود
| المؤشر | الراعي | التغطية | الوتيرة | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index | UNDP with OPHI | 193 and about 110 countries | دورة تشغيل | 3 dimensions; 10 indicators. Geometric mean; Alkire–Foster | Source series | Survey lags |
| SDG Index and Social Progress Index | UN SDSN; a non-profit | About 167 to 170 countries | دورة تشغيل | 17 goals; 12 components. Arithmetic means; PCA weights | المواءمة المرجعية | Outcome dashboards, not risk |
| Sendai Framework Monitor | UNDRR | Reporting countries | دورة تشغيل | 38 indicators under 7 targets. National self-reporting | Source series | Uneven reporting |
| Global Innovation Index | WIPO | About 133 countries | دورة تشغيل | 7 pillars, about 80 indicators. Arithmetic means with a published statistical audit | المواءمة المرجعية | Innovation, not risk; a model of audit transparency |
| Business Ready (B-READY) | World Bank | 101 economies (2025), expanding | دورة تشغيل | 3 pillars over 10 topics. Expert questionnaires and firm surveys; 0–100 | Source series | Coverage still expanding |
10المعايير
Standards NXS-GRX follows
STDOECD/JRC Handbook on Constructing Composite IndicatorsThe ten construction steps NXS-GRX follows→ STDJRC COIN statistical audit practiceCorrelation structure, coherence, Monte Carlo uncertainty and rank stability→ STDISO 31000 and IEC 31010Risk-management vocabulary and assessment techniques (referenced; no conformance claimed)→ STDSendai Framework for Disaster Risk ReductionTargets A–G and 38 indicators as crosswalk keys→ STDUNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025)Canonical hazard keys through Hazard Standard crosswalks→ STDIRDR peril classificationCrosswalk for loss databases→ STDSDMX (ISO 17369)Observation keys, code lists and statistical exchange→ STDUN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics and the NQAF manualQuality dimensions (relevance, accuracy, timeliness, accessibility, coherence)→ STDW3C PROV-O, DCAT, STAC, OGC API and FAIRProvenance, catalogue, geospatial and access standards→
Steward of an index listed here?
Tell us if a description is wrong or out of date; corrections are made in the open.
الحالة
منهجية The Global Risks Index وبنيته وتعاريفه مسودة عمل تحضيرية (2026)، تُعمَّم للمراجعة والتعليق لا للتطبيق. ولا تظهر أي قيمة إلى أن يصدر إصدار من مقطع أدلة خاضع للحوكمة؛ وعندئذ تحمل القيم فترات وفئات ومصادر ومسار تصويبها. وتُطبِّق أدوات المحاكاة المنهجيات المنشورة على أرقام تختارها أنت، ولا تعرض أبدًا أي قيمة من NXS-GRX.
ما ليس عليه NXS-GRX
NXS-GRX معلومات بحثية وتحليلية للمخاطر. وهو ليس تصنيفًا ائتمانيًا ولا تصنيفًا بيئيًا واجتماعيًا وحوكميًا ولا يستخدم أي مقياس تصنيف، وليس مؤشرًا مرجعيًا للأدوات المالية، ولا إحصاءً رسميًا، ولا إنذارًا طارئًا أو تصنيفًا رسميًا، ولا مشورة. ولا يجوز استخدامه لتقييم الأشخاص الطبيعيين. فئات المخاطر نطاقات على مقياس منشور، وليست أبدًا ترتيبًا للبلدان أو الأشخاص.
المؤسسات والمصادر
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
تحمل كل قيمة إسناد مصادرها، التي تحتفظ بتراخيصها الخاصة. ولا يُستشهد بالأسماء الخارجية إلا لأغراض قابلية التشغيل البيني. ويُعتزم إصدار النصوص التي تؤلفها Nexus بموجب ترخيص CC BY 4.0 عند نشرها.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.