The Global Risks Index · Nexus Standards · PROPOSED
The systemic risk taxonomy
Hazard domains, contexts, risk classes, indicator domains, risk components, the risk chain, method fabrics, the twenty systems, platforms, domain packs and programme pillars, each node linked to the standards that govern it.
Page GRX-TAXEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
11
facets
189
nodes
348
standards referenced
905
خطرات
hazard domains
| Node | Definition | معیارات |
|---|---|---|
فضا اور موسمatmo |
Hazards that live in the air column: storms, winds, precipitation extremes, thermal extremes, airborne particles and large-scale circulation anomalies. | |
پانی کے نظامwater |
Hazards of fresh and salt water: floods, water deficit, sea-level and wave hazards, ocean-state extremes and water-quality degradation. | |
برف اور برفباریcryo |
Hazards of the frozen Earth: snowpack and avalanche, glacier and permafrost change, floating ice. | |
ٹھوس زمینgeo |
Hazards of the crust and ground: fault shaking, eruptions, slope failure, ground deformation and surface erosion. | |
خلا اور زمین کے قریب کا خلاspace |
Hazards that arrive from or act in space: solar-terrestrial storms, impacts and orbital debris. | |
زمین اور ماحولیاتی نظامeco |
Hazards of the living land and sea surface: vegetation fire, forest stress, land degradation, biodiversity loss and climate-state shifts. | |
سیاروی حدود اور زمینی نظام کے نقطۂ انقلابplanet |
Hazards of the Earth system as a whole: transgression of the boundaries that keep the planet in a stable state, tipping of large climate, ice, ocean and biome components, carbon-cycle feedbacks, and rare deep-time and cosmic catastrophes. | |
آلودگی اور خطرناک مادےpoll |
Harmful substances in air, water, soil and food, toxic releases, ionising radiation and waste-containment failures. | |
صحت اور حیاتیاتی تحفظhealth |
Disease and biological harm to people, animals and plants, grouped by transmission route, plus systemic biological risks, chronic and mental-health burdens, drug resistance and the failure of health systems. | |
تعمیر شدہ نظامinfra |
Failure and accident hazards of structures, energy, water, digital and space-service networks, mobility, food systems, cities, ageing assets and industrial plants. | |
معلومات اور سائبر طبعی نظامcyber |
Compromise or failure of information systems, including attacks that reach physical processes, identity and trust services, systemic cyber events and platforms everything else depends on. | |
جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجیtech |
Hazards that arise from frontier and exponential technologies: artificial intelligence, biotechnology, advanced materials, quantum, neurotechnology, autonomy, climate intervention, space systems, digital concentration, advanced manufacturing and energy-transition technology. | |
معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشتsoc |
Violence, geopolitical and nuclear confrontation, conflict-induced harm, humanitarian crises, governance and cohesion failure, crime, demographic and labour transitions, macro-fiscal and financial-system shocks, and loss of heritage. | |
نظامی اور مرکب واقعاتsys |
Events defined by interaction rather than by one process: supply-chain disruption, cascading failure, compound multi-hazard events and the structural fragility (concentration, coupling, polycrisis) that lets them spread. |
02Hazard Standard
Hazard Standard contexts (the six anchor streams, global risks and the nexus)
| Node | Definition | معیارات |
|---|---|---|
پانیwater |
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توانائیenergy |
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خوراکfood |
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صحتhealth |
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حیاتیاتی تنوعbiodiversity |
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اہم بنیادی ڈھانچہcritical-infrastructure |
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Global risksglobal-risks |
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Nexusnexus |
03Hazard Standard
risk classes (global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier technology)
| Node | Definition | معیارات |
|---|---|---|
Global riskglobal |
A hazard is global when its occurrence, its consequences or its causal chain cross national borders and act at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can fully assess, prevent or absorb it. | |
Catastrophic riskcatastrophic |
A hazard is catastrophic when at least one plausible scenario for it would cause global catastrophe: a very large loss of life, the crippling of global systems, or a civilisational setback that would take generations to recover from. | |
Existential riskexistential |
A hazard is existential when a plausible scenario for it would cause human extinction or a permanent, unrecoverable collapse of humanity’s long-term potential. | |
Emerging riskemerging |
A hazard is emerging when it is new, or is changing fast in nature, scale, likelihood or reach, and the evidence base for assessing it is still thin or immature. | |
Planetary riskplanetary |
A hazard is planetary when it concerns the stability of an Earth-system process: it pressures a planetary boundary, or it is, or directly drives, a tipping element whose change of state would alter the Earth system as a whole. | |
Exponential riskexponential |
A hazard is exponential when its growth or diffusion is self-accelerating, through compounding technology capability, contagion, network effects or reinforcing feedback, so that its scale can outrun linear planning and response. | |
Frontier technology riskfrontier-tech |
A hazard is frontier-tech when it arises from frontier or fast-advancing technology, through accident, misuse, unintended system behaviour or structural effects of its deployment. |
indicator domains
| Node | Definition | معیارات |
|---|---|---|
MacroeconomyMAC |
Output, prices, external position and monetary conditions of an economy. | |
Fiscal and public debtFIS |
Government revenue, spending, balances, debt stock, composition, financing needs and contingent liabilities. | |
Financial systemFIN |
Soundness, depth and vulnerabilities of banks, non-banks, households, corporates and markets, including climate-related financial risk. | |
آب و ہواCLI |
Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness. | |
Hazard and exposureHAZ |
Natural and technological hazard intensity, frequency and the people, assets and systems exposed, keyed to Hazard Standard. | |
صحتHLT |
Disease burden, health-system capacity and health-security preparedness. | |
Food systemsFOO |
Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity. | |
پانیWAT |
Water availability, stress, access, quality and transboundary dependence. | |
توانائیENE |
Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition. | |
بنیادی ڈھانچہINF |
Critical infrastructure stock, condition, service continuity, connectivity and urban systems. | |
Cyber and digitalCYB |
Cyber-security commitment and capability, digital dependence and incident exposure. | |
حکمرانی اور ادارےGOV |
Quality of governance, rule of law, policy and institutional capacity, statistical capacity. | |
Conflict and securityCON |
Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace. | |
Social and human developmentSOC |
Poverty, inequality, education, gender, social protection and human development. | |
Demography and mobilityDEM |
Population size and structure, urbanisation, migration and forced displacement. | |
Environment and biodiversityENV |
Pollution, ecosystem condition, land and biodiversity, and nature dependence. | |
Technology and frontierTEC |
Frontier technology capability, concentration and systemic technology risk (AI, biotech, space, quantum). | |
Coping capacity and resilienceCRS |
Disaster risk reduction, early warning, risk financing and protection gaps. | |
Economic structure and tradeECO |
Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity. | |
Space environmentSPC |
Space weather and the exposure of space-dependent services. |
05Indicator Standard
Indicator Standard risk components
| Node | Definition | معیارات |
|---|---|---|
HazardHAZARD |
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زدEXPOSURE |
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VulnerabilityVULNERABILITY |
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Coping capacityCOPING_CAPACITY |
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Adaptive capacityADAPTIVE_CAPACITY |
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ResponseRESPONSE |
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ImpactIMPACT |
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ContextCONTEXT |
06Facet
systemic risk chain stages
| Node | Definition | معیارات |
|---|---|---|
HazardHAZARD |
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زدEXPOSURE |
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VulnerabilityVULNERABILITY |
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ImpactIMPACT |
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LikelihoodLIKELIHOOD |
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خطرہRISK |
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CapacityCAPACITY |
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ResponseRESPONSE |
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FinancingFINANCING |
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OutcomeOUTCOME |
07nrm
Method libraries
| Node | Definition | معیارات |
|---|---|---|
Universal mathematics and statisticsuniversal-mathematics-statistics |
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Hazard sciencehazard-science |
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Exposure and asset intelligenceexposure-asset-intelligence |
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Vulnerability, fragility and resiliencevulnerability-fragility-resilience |
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Consequence and lossconsequence-loss |
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Catastrophe riskcatastrophe-risk |
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Networks, dependency and systemic risknetwork-dependency-systemic |
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Financial riskfinancial-risk |
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Insurance and reinsuranceinsurance-reinsurance |
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Markets, trade and supply chainsmarket-trade-supply-chain |
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Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risksovereign-macro-development |
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Policy, regulation and governancepolicy-regulation-governance |
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پانی کا خطرہwater-risk |
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Food, agriculture and fisheriesfood-agriculture-fisheries |
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Energy riskenergy-risk |
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Health and epidemiologyhealth-epidemiology |
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Climate, nature and biodiversityclimate-nature-biodiversity |
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Critical infrastructure and industrial riskcritical-infrastructure-industrial |
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Cyber, AI and frontier technologycyber-ai-frontier-tech |
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Geopolitics, conflict and human securitygeopolitical-conflict-human-security |
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Projects, programmes and infrastructure investmentproject-programme-infrastructure-investment |
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Risk datarisk-data |
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Scientific assurancescientific-assurance |
The twenty functional system classes
| Node | Definition | معیارات |
|---|---|---|
NXS-CMD (Integrated posture and executive synthesis)executive-synthesis |
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NXS-NST (Civilian common operating picture)common-operating-picture |
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NXS-DSS (Decision cases and deliberation)decision-support |
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NXS-COR (Compute, nodes and runtimes)compute-runtime |
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NXS-NXQ (Software, models and capability lifecycle)software-model-lifecycle |
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NXS-GRX (Canonical data, provenance and risk)risk-data-provenance |
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NXS-EOP (Earth observation and digital twins)earth-observation-twins |
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NXS-EWS (Multi-hazard monitoring and warning)monitoring-warning |
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NXS-AAP (Anticipatory action and triggers)anticipatory-action |
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NXS-NET (Network topology and continuity)network-continuity |
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NXS-OPS (Instruments, sensors and calibration)instruments-sensing |
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NXS-SIG (Signal, spectrum, timing and PNT)signal-timing-pnt |
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NXS-NSF (Trust, authorisation and assurance)trust-assurance |
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NXS-HUB (Knowledge, records and learning)knowledge-records |
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NXS-STU (Composition, dashboards and workflows)composition-workflow |
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NXS-FAC (Blueprints, builds and signing)build-signing |
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NXS-APP (Application catalogue and lifecycle)application-lifecycle |
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NXS-RLS (Participants, agreements and handoffs)participation-agreements |
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NXS-POR (Public, client and partner delivery)public-delivery |
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NXS-LAB (Research, experiments and simulations)research-simulation |
09Facet
Nexus Universe platforms
| Node | Definition | معیارات |
|---|---|---|
اثاثہ جات کے انتظام کا Nexusasset-management-nexus |
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بینکاری Nexusbanking-nexus |
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Biodiversity Nexusbiodiversity-nexus |
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کیپیٹل مارکیٹس Nexuscapital-markets-nexus |
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سرمایہ Nexuscapital-nexus |
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ترقیاتی مالیات Nexusdevelopment-finance-nexus |
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سفارت کاری Nexusdiplomacy-nexus |
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Energy Nexusenergy-nexus |
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مالیاتی ضابطہ کاری Nexusfinancial-regulation-nexus |
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فن ٹیک Nexusfintech-nexus |
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Food Nexusfood-nexus |
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پیش بینی Nexusforesight-nexus |
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نظم و نسق Nexusgovernance-nexus |
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Health Nexushealth-nexus |
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اختراع Nexusinnovation-nexus |
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ادارہ جاتی فنڈز Nexusinstitutional-funds-nexus |
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بیمہ Nexusinsurance-nexus |
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Nexus Agencynexus-agency |
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Nexus Campaignsnexus-campaigns |
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Nexus Labsnexus-labs |
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Nexus Registrynexus-registry |
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Nexus Reportsnexus-reports |
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پالیسی Nexuspolicy-nexus |
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نجی ایکویٹی Nexusprivate-equity-nexus |
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تحقیق Nexusresearch-nexus |
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خودمختار سرمایہ Nexussovereign-capital-nexus |
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Water Nexuswater-nexus |
10Facet
Universe applied domain packs
| Node | Definition | معیارات |
|---|---|---|
Aviationaviation |
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Maritimemaritime |
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Railrail |
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Roads mobilityroads-mobility |
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Transport logisticstransport-logistics |
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Ports trade corridorsports-trade-corridors |
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Cities urbancities-urban |
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Buildings housingbuildings-housing |
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Data centresdata-centers |
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سیمی کنڈکٹرزsemiconductors |
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Telecom digital infrastructuretelecom-digital-infrastructure |
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Space satellitespace-satellite |
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Mining critical mineralsmining-critical-minerals |
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Manufacturing industrialmanufacturing-industrial |
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Chemicals processchemicals-process |
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Waste circular economywaste-circular-economy |
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Forests landforests-land |
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Oceans coastaloceans-coastal |
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Fisheries blue economyfisheries-blue-economy |
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Climate adaptationclimate-adaptation |
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Climate mitigation carbonclimate-mitigation-carbon |
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Disaster risk resiliencedisaster-risk-resilience |
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Humanitarian crisishumanitarian-crisis |
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Education workforceeducation-workforce |
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Digital governmentdigital-government |
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Public finance fiscal riskpublic-finance-fiscal-risk |
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Biotechnology bioeconomybiotechnology-bioeconomy |
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Quantum ecosystemquantum-ecosystem |
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Robotics autonomyrobotics-autonomy |
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Ai national adoptionai-national-adoption |
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Cyber national resiliencecyber-national-resilience |
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Nuclear fusionnuclear-fusion |
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Hydrogen storagehydrogen-storage |
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Agriculture ruralagriculture-rural |
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Health infrastructurehealth-infrastructure |
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اہم بنیادی ڈھانچہcritical-infrastructure |
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Research infrastructureresearch-infrastructure |
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Supply chain tradesupply-chain-trade |
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Community local resiliencecommunity-local-resilience |
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Islands small statesislands-small-states |
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Arctic polararctic-polar |
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Cross border basinscross-border-basins |
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Industrial decarbonisationindustrial-decarbonization |
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Construction infrastructure deliveryconstruction-infrastructure-delivery |
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Emergency communicationsemergency-communications |
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Food supply chainsfood-supply-chains |
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Pharmaceutical medical supplypharmaceutical-medical-supply |
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Financial system resiliencefinancial-system-resilience |
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Nature finance projectsnature-finance-projects |
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Sovereign compute ai infrastructuresovereign-compute-ai-infrastructure |
Propose a change to the taxonomy
The taxonomy is a proposal under the standards development process.
حیثیت
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.