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Global Risks Index

INT

情报中心

Pulse · Outlook · Horizon · analyst-reviewed briefings

Observatory Set up a watchlist

简报

No brief yet

The daily brief is issued from analyst-reviewed signals once Pulse and Outlook are live. Each item names its sources and the authority that decides.

Signals

No signals yet

Pulse readings become signals for review when they cross a place’s own historical range. Nothing here is a warning; every handoff names the authority that decides.

on: pulse anomaly

供审查的信号

Waiting for approvalTriggered by Pulse nowcast5 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

流程图
01Detect
02核实
03Assess
04移交

100%
时间线
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 dTarget
Anomaly detectedPulse nowcast7 d
Sources verifiedData stewards1 d
Analyst reviewAnalysts2 d
Information for competent authoritiesSecretariat1 d
Logged and watchedPulse nowcastongoing

End to end on the longest path: about 12.3 d of proposed target service levels, before the jobs that run with no fixed end. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

步骤
  1. Anomaly detected

    Detect · Pulse nowcast · weekly
    Standardised anomaly vs own history
    Pulse nowcast
  2. Sources verified matrix · per stream

    Verify · Data stewards · 1 day
    Each stream checked · Licence admits use
    许可登记册来源追溯（W3C PROV）
  3. Analyst review approval

    Assess · Analysts · 2 days
    Context, couplings, confidence
    PostgreSQL 账本（行级安全）
  4. Information for competent authorities

    Hand off · Secretariat · 1 day
    Shared for review, not a warning
    NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) gateway
  5. Logged and watched

    Hand off · Pulse nowcast · ongoing
    Outcome tracked for verification
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)Pulse nowcast
产出物
产出物 作业 执行方 阶段
Signal candidate Anomaly detected Pulse nowcast Detect
Source check Sources verified 数据管理方 核实
Assessment Analyst review Analysts Assess
Handoff record Information for competent authorities 秘书处 移交
Verification record Logged and watched Pulse nowcast 移交
已完成进行中等待批准排队中审批关口矩阵作业当前位置
How a weekly anomaly becomes a signal for review by competent authorities, never a public warning. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Horizon

No horizon cycle yet

Each cycle scans admitted sources, scores emerging risks for likelihood and impact with ranges, and links them to the domains they would couple into.

on: horizon cycle opens

前景扫描与简报

In progressTriggered by Intelligence team6 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

流程图
01Scan
02Scan
03Assess
04简报
05简报

100%
时间线
Job0 d5 d10 d15 dTarget
Scan sourcesNXS-GRX Intelligence7 d
Cluster and deduplicateNXS-GRX Intelligence1 d
Likelihood and impact with uncertaintyAnalysts3 d
Systemic linksAnalysts2 d
Peer reviewReviewers5 d
Briefing issuedIntelligence team1 d

End to end on the longest path: about 17 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

步骤
  1. Scan sources matrix · sources

    Scan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · weekly
    Admitted sources and literature · Expert elicitation
    Horizon scanningLicence register
  2. Cluster and deduplicate

    Scan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · 1 day
    Themes and weak signals
    Horizon scanning
  3. Likelihood and impact with uncertainty

    Assess · Analysts · 3 days
    Structured elicitation · Ranges, not points
    Horizon scanningMonte Carlo engine
  4. Systemic links

    Assess · Analysts · 2 days
    Coupling to existing domains
    依赖网络
  5. 同行评审 审批

    Brief · Reviewers · 5 days
    Challenge session · Disposition
    PostgreSQL 账本（行级安全）
  6. Briefing issued

    Brief · Intelligence team · 1 day
    Briefing with sources and limits
    Nexus Reports
产出物
产出物 作业 执行方 阶段
Candidate list Scan sources NXS-GRX Intelligence Scan
Theme map Cluster and deduplicate NXS-GRX Intelligence Scan
Horizon matrix Likelihood and impact with uncertainty Analysts Assess
Link map Systemic links Analysts Assess
Review record 同行评审 Reviewers 简报
Horizon briefing Briefing issued Intelligence team 简报
已完成进行中等待批准排队中审批关口矩阵作业当前位置
Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Outlooks

No outlooks yet

Outlooks give calibrated probabilities at 1, 3, 12 and 36 months for defined events, each with its verification scorecard.

核实

No scorecards yet

Every Outlook model version publishes its reliability diagram, Brier score, skill and ROC area on held-out cases before it is used.

on: model version submitted

测试并验证模型

In progressTriggered by Model owner7 jobs1 approval gate11 checks1 deployment

流程图
01提交
02测试
03Document
04Approve
05Approve

100%
时间线
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 dTarget
Model version submittedYouinstant
BacktestVerification engine6 h
Out-of-sample scoresVerification engine2 h
BenchmarkVerification engine2 h
Model cardYou1 d
Approval gateMethod stewards10 d
Promote to productionNXS-GRX Platforminstant

End to end on the longest path: about 11.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

步骤
  1. Model version submitted

    Submit · You · instant
    Code, data and seed pinned · Intended use declared
    Model LabPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
  2. Backtest

    Test · Verification engine · 6 hours
    Rolling-origin backtest · Hindcasts over the archive
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  3. Out-of-sample scores

    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Brier and CRPS · Reliability and ROC area
    Verification engine
  4. Benchmark

    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Against established indices and naive baselines
    Verification engineindicator standard
  5. Model card

    Document · You · 1 day
    Intended use and limits · Data, method and scores
    Replication packs
  6. 审批关口 审批

    Approve · Method stewards · 10 days
    Disposition recorded
    PostgreSQL 账本（行级安全）
  7. Promote to production

    Approve · NXS-GRX Platform · instant
    Version pinned in production · Rollback kept
    Model LabPublic cut API
产出物
产出物 作业 执行方 阶段
Version record Model version submitted 您 提交
Backtest report Backtest Verification engine 测试
Scorecard Out-of-sample scores Verification engine 测试
Benchmark table Benchmark Verification engine 测试
Model card Model card 您 Document
Approval record 审批关口 Method stewards Approve
Release tag Promote to production NXS-GRX Platform Approve
已完成进行中等待批准QueuedApproval gateTest jobDeploymentYou are here
Every model version is backtested, scored out of sample, compared with established indices and documented in a model card before use. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Workbench

on: watchlist saved

Analyst workbench: watchlist to handoff

Waiting for approvalTriggered by Monitoring team6 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

流程图
01Set up
02Sense
03评审
04交付

100%
时间线
Job0 d2 d4 d6 dTarget
Watchlist and thresholdsYouinstant
Pulse nowcastPulse nowcast7 d
Outlook updateOutlook models7 d
Analyst reviewDuty analyst6 h
Route the alertAlert routerinstant
Handoff to the authorityDuty analyst2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 7.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

步骤
  1. Watchlist and thresholds

    Set up · You · self-serve
    Entities and domains · Thresholds and channels
    Alert router
  2. Pulse nowcast matrix · entities × domains

    Sense · Pulse nowcast · weekly
    Anomaly against each place’s own history
    Pulse nowcastTested model kernels
  3. Outlook update

    Sense · Outlook models · weekly
    Calibrated probabilities refreshed
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  4. Analyst review approval

    Review · Duty analyst · 6 hours
    Signal checked against sources · Context added
    PostgreSQL 账本（行级安全）
  5. Route the alert

    Deliver · Alert router · < 5 ms
    Email, webhook or dashboard · Never framed as a warning
    Alert routerWebhooks and streaming
  6. Handoff to the authority

    Deliver · Duty analyst · 2 hours
    Names the authority that decides
    PostgreSQL 账本（行级安全）
产出物
产出物 作业 执行方 阶段
Watchlist Watchlist and thresholds 您 Set up
Pulse readings Pulse nowcast Pulse nowcast Sense
Outlook readings Outlook update Outlook models Sense
Reviewed signal Analyst review Duty analyst 评审
Alert Route the alert Alert router 交付
Hand-over note Handoff to the authority Duty analyst 交付
已完成进行中等待批准排队中审批关口矩阵作业当前位置
Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
Signals are information for review, not warnings · every handoff names the authority that decidesNot live yet

01Rules

How intelligence is issued

Signals, not warnings

A signal is information for review. Official warnings come from the authorities that issue them.

Reviewed before it reaches you

Every signal passes an analyst gate; the reviewer and the sources are recorded.

Handoff names the authority

Where action may be needed, the handoff names the authority that decides.

Verified in public

Every Outlook model version publishes reliability, Brier score, skill and ROC area.

02旅程

Intelligence journeys

NXS-GRX · Govern

供审查的信号

How a weekly anomaly becomes a signal for review by competent authorities, never a public warning. 5 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX Intelligence · Monitor

通过关注列表和提醒进行监测

Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. 6 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX Intelligence · Monitor

前景扫描与简报

Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review. 6 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX · Govern

申请情景包

Pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100 and structured stress tests for planning and supervisory exercises. 5 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run

03人道主义数据

What the Humanitarian Data Exchange feed holds

194 countries synced on 2026-10-23 from 226 datasets whose licence passes the gate; 147 resources were left out for their licence. Each country’s page shows the values, with date, provider and licence. Source observations for review, not warnings and not index values.

主题 国家 With ADM1 figures With ADM2 figures Newest reference date
人口 109 98 59 2025-12-31
需要援助的人 22 6 16 2026-12-31
贫困人口数 107 99 0 2024-12-31
收容的难民 171 0 0 2025-12-31
境外难民 186 0 0 2025-12-31
降雨量相对长期平均值 112 109 44 2026-10-10
Humanitarian funding 107 0 0 2026-08-31
市场粮食价格 85 0 0 2026-10-14

Bring intelligence to your team

Watchlists, briefings and outlooks are agreed with the Secretariat.

联系

状态

The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。

NXS-GRX 不是什么

NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。

机构与来源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.