前景扫描与简报
Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review.
- Scan sources weekly
- Cluster and deduplicate 1 day
- Likelihood and impact with uncertainty 3 days
- Systemic links 2 days
- Peer review 5 days
- Briefing issued 1 day
前景扫描与简报
Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review.
前景扫描与简报
End to end on the longest path: about 17 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.
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Scan sources matrix · sourcesScan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · weeklyAdmitted sources and literature · Expert elicitationHorizon scanningLicence register
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Cluster and deduplicateScan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · 1 dayThemes and weak signalsHorizon scanning
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Likelihood and impact with uncertaintyAssess · Analysts · 3 daysStructured elicitation · Ranges, not pointsHorizon scanningMonte Carlo engine
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Systemic linksAssess · Analysts · 2 daysCoupling to existing domains依赖网络
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同行评审 审批Brief · Reviewers · 5 daysChallenge session · DispositionPostgreSQL 账本（行级安全）
| 产出物 | 作业 | 执行方 | 阶段 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate list | Scan sources | NXS-GRX Intelligence | Scan |
| Theme map | Cluster and deduplicate | NXS-GRX Intelligence | Scan |
| Horizon matrix | Likelihood and impact with uncertainty | Analysts | Assess |
| Link map | Systemic links | Analysts | Assess |
| Review record | 同行评审 | Reviewers | 简报 |
| Horizon briefing | Briefing issued | Intelligence team | 简报 |
Solutions that use this journey
6 components
Each job names the component it runs on; open a job on the canvas for its steps, checks and artefacts.
Part of NXS-GRX Intelligence: Pulse nowcasts, calibrated outlooks, horizon scanning, watchlists and analyst-reviewed briefings, with every signal kept apart from an official warning.
Related journeys
通过关注列表和提醒进行监测
Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. 6 jobs · 1 gate.
Open the run
NXS-GRX Intelligence · Model使用风险引擎组合风险情报产品
The risk engine resolves context, discovers capabilities by stable ID, routes by quality of intelligence, runs governed science and composes a product that keeps every input’s evidence and supported claim level. 10 jobs · 1 gate · 5 checks.
Open the run
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.