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Le Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index Intelligence · Monitor · on: horizon cycle opens

Veille prospective et note

Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review.

Page GRX-JRN-HORIZONEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Jobs 6Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
on: horizon cycle opens · Horizon scan and brief6 jobs · 1 gate
  1. Scan sources weekly
  2. Cluster and deduplicate 1 day
  3. Likelihood and impact with uncertainty 3 days
  4. Systemic links 2 days
  5. Peer review 5 days
  6. Briefing issued 1 day

01Monitor

Veille prospective et note

Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review.

on: horizon cycle opens

Veille prospective et note

In progressTriggered by Intelligence team6 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

Graphe
01Scan
02Scan
03Assess
04Synthèse
05Synthèse

100%
Chronologie
Job0 d5 d10 d15 dTarget
Scan sourcesNXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Intelligence7 d
Cluster and deduplicateNXS-GRX Intelligence1 d
Likelihood and impact with uncertaintyAnalysts3 d
Systemic linksAnalysts2 d
Peer reviewReviewers5 d
Briefing issuedIntelligence team1 d

End to end on the longest path: about 17 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Étapes
  1. Scan sources matrix · sources

    Scan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · weekly
    Admitted sources and literature · Expert elicitation
    Horizon scanningLicence register
  2. Cluster and deduplicate

    Scan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · 1 day
    Themes and weak signals
    Horizon scanning
  3. Likelihood and impact with uncertainty

    Assess · Analysts · 3 days
    Structured elicitation · Ranges, not points
    Horizon scanningMonte Carlo engine
  4. Systemic links

    Assess · Analysts · 2 days
    Coupling to existing domains
    Réseau de dépendances
  5. Évaluation par les pairs approbation

    Brief · Reviewers · 5 days
    Challenge session · Disposition
    Registre PostgreSQL (sécurité au niveau des lignes)
  6. Briefing issued

    Brief · Intelligence team · 1 day
    Briefing with sources and limits
Artefacts
Artefact Tâche Qui Étape
Candidate list Scan sources NXS-GRX Intelligence Scan
Theme map Cluster and deduplicate NXS-GRX Intelligence Scan
Horizon matrix Likelihood and impact with uncertainty Analysts Assess
Link map Systemic links Analysts Assess
Review record Évaluation par les pairs Reviewers Synthèse
Horizon briefing Briefing issued Intelligence team Synthèse
TerminéEn coursEn attente d'approbationEn file d'attenteÉtape d'approbationTâche matricielleVous êtes ici
Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
02À qui il s'adresse

Solutions that use this journey

Open to every reader. This journey is part of the open commons and governance of NXS-GRX.
03Technologie

6 components

Each job names the component it runs on; open a job on the canvas for its steps, checks and artefacts.

Horizon scanningLicence registerMonte Carlo engineDependency networkPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)Nexus Reports

Part of NXS-GRX Intelligence: Pulse nowcasts, calibrated outlooks, horizon scanning, watchlists and analyst-reviewed briefings, with every signal kept apart from an official warning.

Start this journey

Talk to the Secretariat to start this journey with your team.