The world, read as one system
The state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.
One grammar from source to global reading
Global values aggregate the 195 profiles, weighted by population for human-centred domains and by exposure or output for economic and infrastructure domains, and read the global systems directly.
- 事件流SOURCES · SOURCES · near real timeAdmitted alert, Earth-observation, conflict-event, price and market streams for the Pulse instrument.
- 205 个已登记来源SOURCES · SOURCES · licence-gatedEvery source is registered with its licence; nothing enters a public value its licence does not admit.
- 情景类别SOURCES · SOURCES · labelledSocio-economic and warming pathways and transition families, used as labelled scenario structures.
- 调查与专家征询SOURCES · SOURCES · perception结构化专家意见征询和公众调查，与测量风险分开保存。
- 依赖网络NETWORK · NETWORK · six layers贸易与投入产出、金融与债务、能源、粮食贸易、基础设施和信息联系。
- 协调序列HAR · HAR · units, areas, timeSource series mapped to Nexus concepts and code lists; units, areas and frequency aligned; no imputation.
- 451 个指标IND · IND · Indicator StandardNative indicators with definitions, units, polarity, levels and crosswalks; flagged imputation only here.
- 86 个子指数SUB · SUB · normalised每个领域内经过标准化、加权和汇总的组成部分。
- 20 个领域指数IDX · IDX · 1,000 draws二十个领域指数，附有蒙特卡洛区间和敏感性分析。
- 系统性耦合得分COUPLING · COUPLING · S依存网络上的传染：DebtRank、清算和阈值级联。
- 危害与威胁暴露PILLAR · PILLAR · HTEWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- 人类与系统脆弱性PILLAR · PILLAR · VULHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- 宏观金融与结构脆弱性PILLAR · PILLAR · MSFHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- 缺乏应对与适应能力PILLAR · PILLAR · LCCCan institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
- 脉搏INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · weeklyNowcast anomaly against each country’s own history.
- 展望INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · 1 to 36 months经校准的事件概率及验证记分卡。
- 尾部INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · exceedanceExceedance curves, return-period losses, catastrophic register.
- 路径INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · to 2100Fan charts under named scenario families.
- 感知INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · separate感知严重程度与感知差距。
- NXS-GRX 综合风险COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · geometricComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
- 195 个国家概况PROFILES · PROFILES · classes, intervals每个国家的所有领域、支柱和工具，从不排名。
- 54 个序列指数SERIES · SERIES · global to technology基于相同领域指数的专项指数。
- API、瓦片和批量文件ACCESS · ACCESS · machinePublic cut, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files.
- NXS-GRX 耦合风险COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · × (1 + κ·S)Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
Four pillars, one composite, one coupled composite
等级与其概率一同显示（蒙特卡罗抽样落在该等级内的比例）。低于 60% 时也会显示相邻等级（例如 高，54% · 非常高，41%）。
- 上一版
- –
- Range since 2016
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- 耦合综合
- –
- 耦合得分 S
- –
- 脉搏，最近一周
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- Outlook, 12 months
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- 方法
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- 抽样次数
- 1,000
尚无已发布的数值。第一版发布后将在这里绘制历史，并附区间带和类别边界。
| 工具 | 数值 | 变化 | 变化 % | 90% 区间 | 类别 · 概率 | 趋势 | 范围 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NXS-GRX 综合风险NXS-GRX · CRI | – | – | – | – | – | ||
NXS-GRX 耦合风险NXS-GRX · CPL | – | – | – | – | – | ||
危害与威胁暴露NXS-GRX · HTE | – | – | – | – | – | ||
人类与系统脆弱性NXS-GRX · VUL | – | – | – | – | – | ||
宏观金融与结构脆弱性NXS-GRX · MSF | – | – | – | – | – | ||
缺乏应对与适应能力NXS-GRX · LCC | – | – | – | – | – |
二十个领域指数
Every domain index stays visible beside the pillars and the composite; none is collapsed silently.
| 指数 | 数值 | 变化 | 变化 % | 90% 区间 | 类别 · 概率 | 趋势 | 范围 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
财政与公共债务风险NXS-GRX · FIS | – | – | – | – | – | ||
金融稳定风险NXS-GRX · FIN | – | – | – | – | – | ||
外部依赖风险NXS-GRX · ECO | – | – | – | – | – | ||
气候物理危害NXS-GRX · CLI | – | – | – | – | – | ||
气候转型暴露NXS-GRX · CLI | – | – | – | – | – | ||
多重危害暴露NXS-GRX · HAZ | – | – | – | – | – | ||
环境压力NXS-GRX · ENV | – | – | – | – | – | ||
水安全风险NXS-GRX · WAT | – | – | – | – | – | ||
空间天气暴露NXS-GRX · SPC | – | – | – | – | – | ||
卫生安全风险NXS-GRX · HLT | – | – | – | – | – | ||
粮食不安全风险NXS-GRX · FOO | – | – | – | – | – | ||
社会经济脆弱性NXS-GRX · SOC | – | – | – | – | – | ||
流离失所压力NXS-GRX · DEM | – | – | – | – | – | ||
冲突风险NXS-GRX · CON | – | – | – | – | – | ||
治理薄弱NXS-GRX · GOV | – | – | – | – | – | ||
能源安全风险NXS-GRX · ENE | – | – | – | – | – | ||
基础设施脆弱性NXS-GRX · INF | – | – | – | – | – | ||
网络风险NXS-GRX · CYB | – | – | – | – | – | ||
技术集中风险NXS-GRX · TEC | – | – | – | – | – | ||
缺乏应对能力NXS-GRX · CRS | – | – | – | – | – |
Every country at a glance
A tile per profile, grouped by UN M49 region, and the largest movements since the previous edition.
Tiles are coloured by composite class once values are released; select a tile to open the profile.
Where risk travels across systems and borders
The Coupling instrument types the dependency edges between ten systems and reports the coupled composite beside the standalone one.
| WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO | FIN | TRD | INF | DIG | SEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 水 |
The rare, severe end of the distribution
Exceedance curves, return-period losses and expected shortfall where loss can be modelled, plus a register of low-probability, high-impact risks.
Standing tail register
How risk moves to 2030, 2050 and 2100
Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families as fan charts, never as single lines.
Calibrated probabilities, verified in public
Every Outlook model version publishes its reliability, Brier skill and ROC area against realised outcomes.
结构
缓慢变化的风险基线是什么？ ◆估算◆模型.
方法 每周临近预报，两次发布之间由事件驱动脉搏
自上一次结构性截止以来发生了哪些变化？ ●观测▲推断.
方法 每月，预测期为 1、3、12 和 36 个月展望
在明确的时间范围内，特定不利结果发生的可能性有多大？ ◇预测.
方法 每个年度版本路径
在通往 2030、2050 和 2100 年的不同未来情景下，风险如何变化？ ○情景◈模拟.
方法 每个年度版本，随事件更新尾部
分布中罕见、严重的一端是什么样子？ ◈模拟◆模型.
方法 每个年度版本，每季度刷新网络耦合
风险在系统和国界之间向何处传播？ ◆估算◈模拟.
方法 年度专家与公众调查轮次感知
感知风险与测量风险在哪些方面存在差异？ ◎专家输入□报告.
方法From a detected signal to a briefing
Pulse and Outlook signals stop at an analyst gate; nothing is issued as a warning by NXS-GRX, and every handoff names the authority that decides.
End to end on the longest path: about 12.3 d of proposed target service levels, before the jobs that run with no fixed end. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.
- Anomaly detectedDetect · Pulse nowcast · weeklyStandardised anomaly vs own historyPulse nowcast
- Sources verified matrix · per streamVerify · Data stewards · 1 dayEach stream checked · Licence admits use许可登记册来源追溯（W3C PROV）
- Analyst review approvalAssess · Analysts · 2 daysContext, couplings, confidencePostgreSQL 账本（行级安全）
- Information for competent authoritiesHand off · Secretariat · 1 dayShared for review, not a warningNXS-GRX 网关
- Logged and watchedHand off · Pulse nowcast · ongoingOutcome tracked for verificationPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)Pulse nowcast
| 产出物 | 作业 | 执行方 | 阶段 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Signal candidate | Anomaly detected | Pulse nowcast | Detect |
| Source check | Sources verified | 数据管理方 | 核实 |
| Assessment | Analyst review | Analysts | Assess |
| Handoff record | Information for competent authorities | 秘书处 | 移交 |
| Verification record | Logged and watched | Pulse nowcast | 移交 |
Every series and region
全球行业系列
基于 Nexus Reports 行业筛查语法的十五个行业指数。15 个序列。
打开 SR战略系统系列
危机相互交织的跨领域系统。14 个序列。
打开 XT指数级技术系列
前沿技术作为基础设施、依赖和危害。20 个序列。
打开 TH专题系列
减少灾害风险、金融与情报，以及水、能源、粮食、健康与生物多样性的关联。4 个序列。
打开 区域非洲
54 profiles
打开 区域美洲
35 profiles
打开 区域亚洲
48 profiles
打开 区域欧洲
44 profiles
打开 区域大洋洲
14 profiles
打开The global series lines up with the Nexus Reports global edition (GLB, drafted, in stewardship review). The report reads findings; NXS-GRX carries the values the report cites, with the same identifiers and evidence cuts. Nexus Reports.
引用与再利用
- Global tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/{metric}/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- 观测键
nis:IDX.HAZ.multi.hazard_exposure:WLD:2026:A
Read any country on the same grammar
Every profile carries the same twenty domains, four pillars and seven instruments, with intervals and sources.
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
Pulse 信号和展望概率是供主管当局审查的信息，绝不是公共警报；官方警报只由获授权的当局发布。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.