The world, read as one system
The state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.
One grammar from source to global reading
Global values aggregate the 195 profiles, weighted by population for human-centred domains and by exposure or output for economic and infrastructure domains, and read the global systems directly.
- Event streamsSOURCES · SOURCES · near real timeAdmitted alert, Earth-observation, conflict-event, price and market streams for the Pulse instrument.
- 205 سەرچاوەی تۆمارکراوSOURCES · SOURCES · licence-gatedEvery source is registered with its licence; nothing enters a public value its licence does not admit.
- Scenario familiesSOURCES · SOURCES · labelledSocio-economic and warming pathways and transition families, used as labelled scenario structures.
- Surveys and elicitationSOURCES · SOURCES · perceptionStructured expert elicitation and public surveys, kept apart from measured risk.
- Dependency networkNETWORK · NETWORK · six layersTrade and input–output, finance and debt, energy, food trade, infrastructure and information links.
- Harmonised seriesHAR · HAR · units, areas, timeSource series mapped to Nexus concepts and code lists; units, areas and frequency aligned; no imputation.
- 451 نیشاندەرIND · IND · Indicator StandardNative indicators with definitions, units, polarity, levels and crosswalks; flagged imputation only here.
- 86 sub-indicesSUB · SUB · normalisedNormalised, weighted and aggregated components inside each domain.
- 20 domain indicesIDX · IDX · 1,000 drawsTwenty domain indices with Monte Carlo intervals and sensitivity.
- Systemic coupling scoreCOUPLING · COUPLING · SContagion on the dependency network: DebtRank, clearing and threshold cascades.
- Hazard and threat exposurePILLAR · PILLAR · HTEWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- Human and systems vulnerabilityPILLAR · PILLAR · VULHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- Macro-financial and structural fragilityPILLAR · PILLAR · MSFHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- Lack of coping and adaptive capacityPILLAR · PILLAR · LCCCan institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
- لێدانINSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · weeklyNowcast anomaly against each country’s own history.
- تێڕوانینINSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · 1 to 36 monthsCalibrated event probabilities with verification scorecards.
- کلکINSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · exceedanceExceedance curves, return-period losses, catastrophic register.
- ڕێڕەوەکانINSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · to 2100Fan charts under named scenario families.
- تێگەیشتنINSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · separatePerceived severity and the perception gap.
- NXS-GRX Composite RiskCOMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · geometricComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
- 195 پڕۆفایلی وڵاتPROFILES · PROFILES · classes, intervalsEvery domain, pillar and instrument per country, never ranked.
- 54 series indicesSERIES · SERIES · global to technologySpecialised indices from the same domain indices.
- API, tiles and bulk filesACCESS · ACCESS · machinePublic cut, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files.
- NXS-GRX Coupled RiskCOMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · × (1 + κ·S)Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
Four pillars, one composite, one coupled composite
A class is printed with its probability (share of Monte Carlo draws inside the class). Below 60% the adjacent class is printed too (for example High, 54% · Very high, 41%).
- Previous edition
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Coupled composite
- –
- Coupling score S
- –
- Pulse, latest week
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- ڕێباز
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Draws
- 1,000
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
| ئامراز | بەها | گۆڕانکاری | گۆڕانکاری % | 90% interval | Class · probability | ڕەوت | مەودا |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NXS-GRX Composite RiskNXS-GRX · CRI | – | – | – | – | – | ||
NXS-GRX Coupled RiskNXS-GRX · CPL | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Hazard and threat exposureNXS-GRX · HTE | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Human and systems vulnerabilityNXS-GRX · VUL | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Macro-financial and structural fragilityNXS-GRX · MSF | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Lack of coping and adaptive capacityNXS-GRX · LCC | – | – | – | – | – |
Twenty domain indices
Every domain index stays visible beside the pillars and the composite; none is collapsed silently.
| نیشاندەر | بەها | گۆڕانکاری | گۆڕانکاری % | 90% interval | Class · probability | ڕەوت | مەودا |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fiscal and public debt riskNXS-GRX · FIS | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Financial stability riskNXS-GRX · FIN | – | – | – | – | – | ||
External dependence riskNXS-GRX · ECO | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Climate physical hazardNXS-GRX · CLI | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Climate transition exposureNXS-GRX · CLI | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Multi-hazard exposureNXS-GRX · HAZ | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Environmental pressureNXS-GRX · ENV | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Water security riskNXS-GRX · WAT | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Space-weather exposureNXS-GRX · SPC | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Health security riskNXS-GRX · HLT | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Food insecurity riskNXS-GRX · FOO | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Socio-economic vulnerabilityNXS-GRX · SOC | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Displacement pressureNXS-GRX · DEM | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Conflict riskNXS-GRX · CON | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Governance weaknessNXS-GRX · GOV | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Energy security riskNXS-GRX · ENE | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Infrastructure fragilityNXS-GRX · INF | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Cyber riskNXS-GRX · CYB | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Lack of coping capacityNXS-GRX · CRS | – | – | – | – | – |
Every country at a glance
A tile per profile, grouped by UN M49 region, and the largest movements since the previous edition.
Tiles are coloured by composite class once values are released; select a tile to open the profile.
Where risk travels across systems and borders
The Coupling instrument types the dependency edges between ten systems and reports the coupled composite beside the standalone one.
| WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO | FIN | TRD | INF | DIG | SEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ئاو |
The rare, severe end of the distribution
Exceedance curves, return-period losses and expected shortfall where loss can be modelled, plus a register of low-probability, high-impact risks.
Standing tail register
How risk moves to 2030, 2050 and 2100
Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families as fan charts, never as single lines.
Calibrated probabilities, verified in public
Every Outlook model version publishes its reliability, Brier skill and ROC area against realised outcomes.
پێکهاتەیی
What is the slow-moving baseline of risk? ◆ESTIMATED◆MODELLED.
ڕێباز Weekly nowcast, event-driven between releasesلێدان
What has changed since the last structural cut? ●OBSERVED▲INFERRED.
ڕێباز Monthly, horizons of 1, 3, 12 and 36 monthsتێڕوانین
How likely are defined adverse outcomes over a stated horizon? ◇FORECAST.
ڕێباز Each annual editionڕێڕەوەکان
How does risk move under alternative futures to 2030, 2050 and 2100? ○SCENARIO◈SIMULATED.
ڕێباز Each annual edition, event-updatedکلک
What does the rare, severe end of the distribution look like? ◈SIMULATED◆MODELLED.
ڕێباز Each annual edition, quarterly network refreshهاوبەستی
Where does risk travel across systems and borders? ◆ESTIMATED◈SIMULATED.
ڕێباز Annual expert and public survey wavesتێگەیشتن
Where does perceived risk differ from measured risk? ◎EXPERT INPUT□REPORTED.
ڕێبازFrom a detected signal to a briefing
Pulse and Outlook signals stop at an analyst gate; nothing is issued as a warning by NXS-GRX, and every handoff names the authority that decides.
End to end on the longest path: about 12.3 d of proposed target service levels, before the jobs that run with no fixed end. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.
- Anomaly detectedDetect · Pulse nowcast · weeklyStandardised anomaly vs own historyPulse nowcast
- Sources verified matrix · per streamVerify · Data stewards · 1 dayEach stream checked · Licence admits useتۆماری مۆڵەتەکانڕەسەنایەتی (W3C PROV)
- Analyst review approvalAssess · Analysts · 2 daysContext, couplings, confidenceدەفتەری PostgreSQL (ئاسایش لە ئاستی ڕیزدا)
- Information for competent authoritiesHand off · Secretariat · 1 dayShared for review, not a warningدەروازەی NXS-GRX
- Logged and watchedHand off · Pulse nowcast · ongoingOutcome tracked for verificationPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)Pulse nowcast
| بەرهەم | کار | کێ | قۆناغ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Signal candidate | Anomaly detected | Pulse nowcast | Detect |
| Source check | Sources verified | پارێزەری داتا | پشتڕاستی بکەرەوە |
| Assessment | Analyst review | Analysts | Assess |
| Handoff record | Information for competent authorities | سکرتاریەت | ڕادەستکردن |
| Verification record | Logged and watched | Pulse nowcast | ڕادەستکردن |
Every series and region
زنجیرەی کەرتە جیهانییەکان
Fifteen sector indices on the grammar of the Nexus Reports sector screen. 15 series.
کراوە SRزنجیرەی سیستەمە ستراتیژییەکان
Cross-cutting systems where crises entangle. 14 series.
کراوە XTزنجیرەی تەکنەلۆجیای خێراگەشە
Frontier technologies as infrastructure, dependency and hazard. 20 series.
کراوە THزنجیرە بابەتییەکان
Disaster risk reduction, finance and intelligence, and the water, energy, food, health and biodiversity nexus. 4 series.
کراوە هەرێمئەفریقا
54 profiles
کراوە هەرێمئەمریکاکان
35 profiles
کراوە هەرێمئاسیا
48 profiles
کراوە هەرێمئەورووپا
44 profiles
کراوە هەرێمئۆقیانووسیا
14 profiles
کراوەThe global series lines up with the Nexus Reports global edition (GLB, drafted, in stewardship review). The report reads findings; NXS-GRX carries the values the report cites, with the same identifiers and evidence cuts. Nexus Reports.
ئاماژەپێدان و بەکارهێنانەوە
- Global tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/{metric}/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- ڕێنمای چاودێری
nis:IDX.HAZ.multi.hazard_exposure:WLD:2026:A
Read any country on the same grammar
Every profile carries the same twenty domains, four pillars and seven instruments, with intervals and sources.
دۆخ
میتۆدۆلۆژی، پێکهاتە و پێناسەکانی Global Risks Index ڕەشنووسێکی کاریی ئامادەکارییە (2026)، کە بۆ پێداچوونەوە و ڕاوبۆچوون بڵاو کراوەتەوە نەک بۆ جێبەجێکردن. هیچ بەهایەک دەرناکەوێت تا وەشانێک لە بڕگەیەکی بەڵگەی حوکمڕانیکراوەوە بڵاو نەکرێتەوە؛ ئینجا بەهاکان مەودا، پۆل، سەرچاوە و ڕێگەی ڕاستکردنەوەیان لەگەڵدایە. سیمولەیتەرەکان ڕێبازە بڵاوکراوەکان لەسەر ئەو ژمارانە جێبەجێ دەکەن کە تۆ هەڵیاندەبژێریت و هەرگیز بەهای NXS-GRX پیشان نادەن.
NXS-GRX چی نییە
NXS-GRX زانیاریی توێژینەوە و شیکاریی مەترسییە. نە پلەبەندیی قەرز یان ESG ە و هیچ پێوەرێکی پلەبەندی بەکار ناهێنێت، نە پێوەرێکی بنەڕەتییە بۆ ئامرازە داراییەکان، نە ئاماری فەرمییە، نە ئاگادارکردنەوەی فریاکەوتن یان پۆلێنکردنی فەرمییە، و نە ئامۆژگارییە. نابێت بۆ هەڵسەنگاندنی کەسە سروشتییەکان بەکار بهێنرێت. پۆلەکانی مەترسی بەشگەلێکن لەسەر پێوەرێکی بڵاوکراو، هەرگیز ڕیزبەندیی وڵاتان یان خەڵک نین.
ئاماژەکانی Pulse و ئەگەرەکانی پێشبینی زانیارین بۆ پێداچوونەوەی دەسەڵاتە پەیوەندیدارەکان، هەرگیز ئاگادارکردنەوەی گشتی نین؛ ئاگادارکردنەوەی فەرمی تەنها لە دەسەڵاتە ڕاسپێردراوەکانەوە دێت.
دامەزراوەکان و سەرچاوەکان
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
هەر بەهایەک ناوبردنی خاوەنی سەرچاوەکانی لەگەڵدایە، کە مۆڵەتی خۆیان دەپارێزن. ناوە دەرەکییەکان تەنیا بۆ گونجانی نێوان سیستەمەکان ئاماژەیان پێدەکرێت. ئەو دەقانەی Nexus نووسیونی بڕیارە لە کاتی بڵاوکردنەوەدا بە CC BY 4.0 بن.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.