Conflict risk index
Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
Mazziotta–Pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
4 components
15 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
Shows where organised violence is already deadly and where structural insecurity makes it likely; the penalty for unbalance stops low militarisation masking high deadliness.
- کوژراوانی ململانێ بۆ هەر 100,000 کەسIndicator · IND · /10*5Reported fatalities from organised political violence in the year per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- ڕووداوەکانی توندوتیژیی سیاسیIndicator · IND · 1Number of events coded as political violence in the year: battles, explosions and remote violence, violence against civilians and mob violence.
- بڵاوبوونەوەی جوگرافیی ململانێIndicator · IND · %Share of the country’s populated grid cells (about 10 km) recording at least the diffusion threshold of political violence events in the year.
- پەرتبوونی لایەنە چەکدارەکانIndicator · IND · 1Number of distinct non-state armed and identity militia groups recorded as active in political violence events in the year.
- ڕووداوەکانی کردنە ئامانجی هاووڵاتیانی مەدەنیIndicator · IND · 1Number of political violence events in the year in which civilians were the primary target, whatever the event type.
- کوژراوانی مەدەنی بە توندوتیژیی ئامانجدار، بۆ هەر 100,000 کەسIndicator · IND · /10*5Deaths reported in events where civilians were the primary target, per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- هێرش بۆ سەر چاودێریی تەندروستیIndicator · IND · 1Number of verified attacks on health facilities, transport, personnel, patients and supplies in the year.
- قوربانیانی مین و پاشماوە تەقەمەنییەکانی شەڕIndicator · IND · personsPeople killed or injured in the year by landmines, improvised mines, cluster munition remnants and other explosive remnants of war.
- ڕێژەی کوشتنی بەئەنقەستIndicator · IND · /10*5Victims of unlawful death purposely inflicted by another person, per 100,000 population, excluding deaths in armed conflict.
- ئاژاوە و خۆپیشاندانی توندوتیژIndicator · IND · 1Number of violent demonstrations and mob-violence events in the year.
- خەرجیی سەربازی، ڕێژە لە GDPIndicator · IND · %Current and capital military spending, including armed forces, defence ministries, paramilitary forces and military aid, as a percentage of GDP (SIPRI definition).
- کارمەندانی هێزە چەکدارەکان، ڕێژە لە هێزی کارIndicator · IND · %Active-duty military and paramilitary personnel as a percentage of the total labour force.
- نمرەی گشتیی Global Peace Index (IEP)Indicator · IND · scoreInstitute for Economics and Peace composite of societal safety, ongoing conflict and militarisation, from 1 (most peaceful) to 5, ingested as the published source series.
- پۆلێنکردنی States of Fragility ی OECDIndicator · IND · classClass assigned in the OECD States of Fragility framework: 2 extremely fragile, 1 other fragile, 0 not listed, ingested as published for each edition.
- دۆخی ناسک و کاریگەربوو بە ململانێی World BankIndicator · IND · yes or noWhether the country appears on the World Bank’s fiscal-year list of fragile and conflict-affected situations, for conflict or for institutional and social fragility.
- Conflict intensity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 40.0%Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
- Civilian harm sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
- Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
- External conflict and fragility assessments sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
- Conflict risk indexDomain index · IDX · Mazziotta–ParetoMazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
- Hazard and threat exposurePillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- شارەزا
- Aggregation
- Mazziotta–Pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- نادڵنیایی
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- INFORM Risk hazard: human (structure only); ACLED Conflict Index (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide; OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
4 components, 15 indicators
Conflict intensity sub-index w 2
Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
| نیشاندەر | یەکە | بەڵگە | سەرچاوەکان | ڕێژە |
|---|---|---|---|---|
کوژراوانی ململانێ بۆ هەر 100,000 کەسIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:nis:IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | 40.0% |
ڕووداوەکانی توندوتیژیی سیاسیIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
بڵاوبوونەوەی جوگرافیی ململانێIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | % | Class D | derived:acled, ghsl-pop | 20.0% |
پەرتبوونی لایەنە چەکدارەکانIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | 1 | Class D | derived:acled | 20.0% |
Civilian harm sub-index w 1.5
Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
| نیشاندەر | یەکە | بەڵگە | سەرچاوەکان | ڕێژە |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ڕووداوەکانی کردنە ئامانجی هاووڵاتیانی مەدەنیIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
کوژراوانی مەدەنی بە توندوتیژیی ئامانجدار، بۆ هەر 100,000 کەسIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:acled, ucdp-ged | 40.0% |
هێرش بۆ سەر چاودێریی تەندروستیIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | 1 | Class B | who-surveillance-system-attacks-health-care, insecurity-insight | 20.0% |
قوربانیانی مین و پاشماوە تەقەمەنییەکانی شەڕIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | {persons} | Class C | landmine-monitor, unmas | 20.0% |
Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-index w 1
Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
| نیشاندەر | یەکە | بەڵگە | سەرچاوەکان | ڕێژە |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ڕێژەی کوشتنی بەئەنقەستIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | /10*5 | Class B | unodc-homicide, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
ئاژاوە و خۆپیشاندانی توندوتیژIND.CON.peace.riot_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 25.0% |
خەرجیی سەربازی، ڕێژە لە GDPIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | % | Class B | sipri-milex, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
کارمەندانی هێزە چەکدارەکان، ڕێژە لە هێزی کارIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | % | Class B | iiss-military-balance, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
External conflict and fragility assessments sub-index w 0.5
Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
| نیشاندەر | یەکە | بەڵگە | سەرچاوەکان | ڕێژە |
|---|---|---|---|---|
نمرەی گشتیی Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | {score} | Class C | iep-global-peace-index | 33.3% |
پۆلێنکردنی States of Fragility ی OECDIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | {class} | Class C | oecd-states-of-fragility | 33.3% |
دۆخی ناسک و کاریگەربوو بە ململانێی World BankIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | {bool} | Class C | wb-fcs-list | 33.3% |
ململانێ و ئاسایش
Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace.
| Sub-domain | نیشاندەرەکان |
|---|---|
| Organised violence | 10 |
| Civilian harm | 4 |
| Peacefulness | 3 |
| Fragility | 2 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): ACLED Conflict Index; Global Peace Index 2026; OECD States of Fragility 2025.
All 19 conflict and security indicators
| نیشاندەر | بوار | Sub-domain | Component | یەکە | ئاستەکان | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
کوژراوە ڕاپۆرتکراوەکانی توندوتیژیی سیاسیی ڕێکخراوIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED fatalities |
کوژراوانی ململانێ بۆ هەر 100,000 کەسIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | SDG 16.1.2 |
مردنی پەیوەست بە شەڕ (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths | CON | Organised violence | hazard | {persons} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH |
ڕووداوەکانی توندوتیژیی سیاسیIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Political violence |
ڕووداوەکانی ململانێی چەکدارIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence |
بڵاوبوونەوەی جوگرافیی ململانێIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | CON | Organised violence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | ACLED Diffusion |
پەرتبوونی لایەنە چەکدارەکانIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | ACLED Fragmentation |
ڕێژەی کوشتنی بەئەنقەستIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1 |
خەرجیی سەربازی، ڕێژە لە GDPIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
کارمەندانی هێزە چەکدارەکان، ڕێژە لە هێزی کارIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS |
ڕووداوەکانی کردنە ئامانجی هاووڵاتیانی مەدەنیIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | CON | Civilian harm | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians |
کوژراوانی مەدەنی بە توندوتیژیی ئامانجدار، بۆ هەر 100,000 کەسIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | CON | Civilian harm | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | ACLED Danger |
هێرش بۆ سەر چاودێریی تەندروستیIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
قوربانیانی مین و پاشماوە تەقەمەنییەکانی شەڕIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | CON | Civilian harm | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY | |
ئاژاوە و خۆپیشاندانی توندوتیژIND.CON.peace.riot_events | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ACLED Riots |
نمرەی گشتیی Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | CON | Peacefulness | vulnerability | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Overall Score |
نمرەی بواری ململانێی بەردەوامی Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict |
پۆلێنکردنی States of Fragility ی OECDIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {class} | COUNTRY | OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts |
دۆخی ناسک و کاریگەربوو بە ململانێی World BankIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {bool} | COUNTRY |
Conflict risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Previous edition
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Coupled composite
- –
- Coupling score S
- –
- Pulse, latest week
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- ڕێباز
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Draws
- 1,000
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
Country values
- Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/con/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- ڕێنمای چاودێری
nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
ACLED | 7 |
WB_WDI | 3 |
SDG | 2 |
GPI | 1 |
OECD_FRAGILITY | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Across the Nexus
GCRI Registry · GCRI Campaigns · GCRI Agency · GRF Diplomacy · Governance Nexus · GRF Information Integrity and Public Trust.
ئاماژەپێدان و بەکارهێنانەوە
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
دۆخ
میتۆدۆلۆژی، پێکهاتە و پێناسەکانی Global Risks Index ڕەشنووسێکی کاریی ئامادەکارییە (2026)، کە بۆ پێداچوونەوە و ڕاوبۆچوون بڵاو کراوەتەوە نەک بۆ جێبەجێکردن. هیچ بەهایەک دەرناکەوێت تا وەشانێک لە بڕگەیەکی بەڵگەی حوکمڕانیکراوەوە بڵاو نەکرێتەوە؛ ئینجا بەهاکان مەودا، پۆل، سەرچاوە و ڕێگەی ڕاستکردنەوەیان لەگەڵدایە. سیمولەیتەرەکان ڕێبازە بڵاوکراوەکان لەسەر ئەو ژمارانە جێبەجێ دەکەن کە تۆ هەڵیاندەبژێریت و هەرگیز بەهای NXS-GRX پیشان نادەن.
NXS-GRX چی نییە
NXS-GRX زانیاریی توێژینەوە و شیکاریی مەترسییە. نە پلەبەندیی قەرز یان ESG ە و هیچ پێوەرێکی پلەبەندی بەکار ناهێنێت، نە پێوەرێکی بنەڕەتییە بۆ ئامرازە داراییەکان، نە ئاماری فەرمییە، نە ئاگادارکردنەوەی فریاکەوتن یان پۆلێنکردنی فەرمییە، و نە ئامۆژگارییە. نابێت بۆ هەڵسەنگاندنی کەسە سروشتییەکان بەکار بهێنرێت. پۆلەکانی مەترسی بەشگەلێکن لەسەر پێوەرێکی بڵاوکراو، هەرگیز ڕیزبەندیی وڵاتان یان خەڵک نین.
دامەزراوەکان و سەرچاوەکان
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
هەر بەهایەک ناوبردنی خاوەنی سەرچاوەکانی لەگەڵدایە، کە مۆڵەتی خۆیان دەپارێزن. ناوە دەرەکییەکان تەنیا بۆ گونجانی نێوان سیستەمەکان ئاماژەیان پێدەکرێت. ئەو دەقانەی Nexus نووسیونی بڕیارە لە کاتی بڵاوکردنەوەدا بە CC BY 4.0 بن.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.