Índice de risco de conflito
Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
Mazziotta–Pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
4 components
15 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
Shows where organised violence is already deadly and where structural insecurity makes it likely; the penalty for unbalance stops low militarisation masking high deadliness.
- Mortes em conflitos por 100.000 habitantesIndicator · IND · /10*5Reported fatalities from organised political violence in the year per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- Eventos de violência políticaIndicator · IND · 1Number of events coded as political violence in the year: battles, explosions and remote violence, violence against civilians and mob violence.
- Difusão geográfica do conflitoIndicator · IND · %Share of the country’s populated grid cells (about 10 km) recording at least the diffusion threshold of political violence events in the year.
- Fragmentação dos atores armadosIndicator · IND · 1Number of distinct non-state armed and identity militia groups recorded as active in political violence events in the year.
- Eventos dirigidos contra civisIndicator · IND · 1Number of political violence events in the year in which civilians were the primary target, whatever the event type.
- Mortes de civis por violência dirigida, por 100.000 habitantesIndicator · IND · /10*5Deaths reported in events where civilians were the primary target, per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- Ataques contra a assistência à saúdeIndicator · IND · 1Number of verified attacks on health facilities, transport, personnel, patients and supplies in the year.
- Vítimas de minas terrestres e restos explosivos de guerraIndicator · IND · personsPeople killed or injured in the year by landmines, improvised mines, cluster munition remnants and other explosive remnants of war.
- Taxa de homicídios intencionaisIndicator · IND · /10*5Victims of unlawful death purposely inflicted by another person, per 100,000 population, excluding deaths in armed conflict.
- Tumultos e manifestações violentasIndicator · IND · 1Number of violent demonstrations and mob-violence events in the year.
- Despesa militar, em % do PIBIndicator · IND · %Current and capital military spending, including armed forces, defence ministries, paramilitary forces and military aid, as a percentage of GDP (SIPRI definition).
- Efetivo das forças armadas, em % da força de trabalhoIndicator · IND · %Active-duty military and paramilitary personnel as a percentage of the total labour force.
- Pontuação geral do Global Peace Index (IEP)Indicator · IND · scoreInstitute for Economics and Peace composite of societal safety, ongoing conflict and militarisation, from 1 (most peaceful) to 5, ingested as the published source series.
- Classificação States of Fragility da OCDEIndicator · IND · classClass assigned in the OECD States of Fragility framework: 2 extremely fragile, 1 other fragile, 0 not listed, ingested as published for each edition.
- Situação de fragilidade e conflito segundo o Banco MundialIndicator · IND · yes or noWhether the country appears on the World Bank’s fiscal-year list of fragile and conflict-affected situations, for conflict or for institutional and social fragility.
- Conflict intensity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 40.0%Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
- Civilian harm sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
- Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
- External conflict and fragility assessments sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
- Índice de risco de conflitoDomain index · IDX · Mazziotta–ParetoMazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
- Exposição a ameaçasPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- especialista
- Aggregation
- Mazziotta–Pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Incerteza
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- INFORM Risk hazard: human (structure only); ACLED Conflict Index (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide; OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
4 components, 15 indicators
Conflict intensity sub-index w 2
Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
| Indicador | Unidade | Evidências | Fontes | Parcela |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mortes em conflitos por 100.000 habitantesIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:nis:IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | 40.0% |
Eventos de violência políticaIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
Difusão geográfica do conflitoIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | % | Class D | derived:acled, ghsl-pop | 20.0% |
Fragmentação dos atores armadosIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | 1 | Class D | derived:acled | 20.0% |
Civilian harm sub-index w 1.5
Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
| Indicador | Unidade | Evidências | Fontes | Parcela |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Eventos dirigidos contra civisIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
Mortes de civis por violência dirigida, por 100.000 habitantesIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:acled, ucdp-ged | 40.0% |
Ataques contra a assistência à saúdeIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | 1 | Class B | who-surveillance-system-attacks-health-care, insecurity-insight | 20.0% |
Vítimas de minas terrestres e restos explosivos de guerraIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | {persons} | Class C | landmine-monitor, unmas | 20.0% |
Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-index w 1
Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
| Indicador | Unidade | Evidências | Fontes | Parcela |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Taxa de homicídios intencionaisIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | /10*5 | Class B | unodc-homicide, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Tumultos e manifestações violentasIND.CON.peace.riot_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 25.0% |
Despesa militar, em % do PIBIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | % | Class B | sipri-milex, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Efetivo das forças armadas, em % da força de trabalhoIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | % | Class B | iiss-military-balance, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
External conflict and fragility assessments sub-index w 0.5
Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
| Indicador | Unidade | Evidências | Fontes | Parcela |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Pontuação geral do Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | {score} | Class C | iep-global-peace-index | 33.3% |
Classificação States of Fragility da OCDEIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | {class} | Class C | oecd-states-of-fragility | 33.3% |
Situação de fragilidade e conflito segundo o Banco MundialIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | {bool} | Class C | wb-fcs-list | 33.3% |
Conflito e segurança
Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace.
| Sub-domain | Indicadores |
|---|---|
| Organised violence | 10 |
| Civilian harm | 4 |
| Peacefulness | 3 |
| Fragility | 2 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): ACLED Conflict Index; Global Peace Index 2026; OECD States of Fragility 2025.
All 19 conflict and security indicators
| Indicador | Domínio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unidade | Níveis | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mortes notificadas por violência política organizadaIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED fatalities |
Mortes em conflitos por 100.000 habitantesIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | SDG 16.1.2 |
Mortes em combate (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths | CON | Organised violence | hazard | {persons} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH |
Eventos de violência políticaIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Political violence |
Eventos de conflito armadoIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence |
Difusão geográfica do conflitoIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | CON | Organised violence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | ACLED Diffusion |
Fragmentação dos atores armadosIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | ACLED Fragmentation |
Taxa de homicídios intencionaisIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1 |
Despesa militar, em % do PIBIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
Efetivo das forças armadas, em % da força de trabalhoIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS |
Eventos dirigidos contra civisIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | CON | Civilian harm | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians |
Mortes de civis por violência dirigida, por 100.000 habitantesIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | CON | Civilian harm | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | ACLED Danger |
Ataques contra a assistência à saúdeIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Vítimas de minas terrestres e restos explosivos de guerraIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | CON | Civilian harm | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY | |
Tumultos e manifestações violentasIND.CON.peace.riot_events | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ACLED Riots |
Pontuação geral do Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | CON | Peacefulness | vulnerability | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Overall Score |
Pontuação do domínio de conflito em curso do Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict |
Classificação States of Fragility da OCDEIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {class} | COUNTRY | OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts |
Situação de fragilidade e conflito segundo o Banco MundialIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {bool} | COUNTRY |
Conflict risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Edição anterior
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Composto acoplado
- –
- Pontuação de acoplamento S
- –
- Pulse, última semana
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Método
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Sorteios
- 1,000
Ainda não há valores publicados. A primeira edição traça aqui o histórico com a faixa do intervalo e os limites de classe.
Country values
- Blocos
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/con/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Chave de observação
nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
ACLED | 7 |
WB_WDI | 3 |
SDG | 2 |
GPI | 1 |
OECD_FRAGILITY | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Em todo o Nexus
GCRI Registry · GCRI Campaigns · GCRI Agency · GRF Diplomacy · Governance Nexus · GRF Information Integrity and Public Trust.
Citar e reutilizar
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Situação
A metodologia, a estrutura e as definições do The Global Risks Index constituem um projeto de trabalho preparatório (2026), divulgado para revisão e comentários e não para implementação. Nenhum valor aparece até que uma edição seja publicada a partir de um corte de evidências governado; os valores passam então a ter intervalos, classes, fontes e o respectivo percurso de correção. Os simuladores executam os métodos publicados sobre números que você escolhe e nunca mostram um valor do NXS-GRX.
O que o NXS-GRX não é
O NXS-GRX é informação de pesquisa e de análise de risco. Não é rating de crédito ou ESG e não usa escala de rating, não é referência para instrumentos financeiros, não é estatística oficial, não é alerta de emergência nem classificação oficial e não é aconselhamento. Não deve ser usado para avaliar pessoas físicas. As classes de risco são faixas em uma escala publicada, nunca classificações de países ou pessoas.
Instituições e fontes
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Cada valor inclui a atribuição das suas fontes, que mantêm as suas próprias licenças. Os nomes externos são citados apenas para fins de interoperabilidade. Os textos de autoria da Nexus destinam-se a ser publicados sob CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.