紛争リスク指数
Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
Mazziotta–Pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
4 components
15 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
Shows where organised violence is already deadly and where structural insecurity makes it likely; the penalty for unbalance stops low militarisation masking high deadliness.
- 紛争による死者（人口 100,000 人あたり）Indicator · IND · /10*5Reported fatalities from organised political violence in the year per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- 政治的暴力事象Indicator · IND · 1Number of events coded as political violence in the year: battles, explosions and remote violence, violence against civilians and mob violence.
- 紛争の地理的拡散Indicator · IND · %Share of the country’s populated grid cells (about 10 km) recording at least the diffusion threshold of political violence events in the year.
- 武装勢力の分裂Indicator · IND · 1Number of distinct non-state armed and identity militia groups recorded as active in political violence events in the year.
- 民間人を標的とした事象Indicator · IND · 1Number of political violence events in the year in which civilians were the primary target, whatever the event type.
- 標的型暴力による民間人死者（人口 100,000 人あたり）Indicator · IND · /10*5Deaths reported in events where civilians were the primary target, per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- 医療への攻撃Indicator · IND · 1Number of verified attacks on health facilities, transport, personnel, patients and supplies in the year.
- 地雷と爆発性戦争残存物による死傷者Indicator · IND · personsPeople killed or injured in the year by landmines, improvised mines, cluster munition remnants and other explosive remnants of war.
- 故意殺人率Indicator · IND · /10*5Victims of unlawful death purposely inflicted by another person, per 100,000 population, excluding deaths in armed conflict.
- 暴動と暴力的デモIndicator · IND · 1Number of violent demonstrations and mob-violence events in the year.
- 軍事支出（GDP 比）Indicator · IND · %Current and capital military spending, including armed forces, defence ministries, paramilitary forces and military aid, as a percentage of GDP (SIPRI definition).
- 軍人（労働力に占める割合）Indicator · IND · %Active-duty military and paramilitary personnel as a percentage of the total labour force.
- 世界平和度指数の総合スコア（IEP）Indicator · IND · scoreInstitute for Economics and Peace composite of societal safety, ongoing conflict and militarisation, from 1 (most peaceful) to 5, ingested as the published source series.
- OECD 脆弱国家分類（States of Fragility）Indicator · IND · classClass assigned in the OECD States of Fragility framework: 2 extremely fragile, 1 other fragile, 0 not listed, ingested as published for each edition.
- 世界銀行の脆弱・紛争影響下の状況（FCS）Indicator · IND · yes or noWhether the country appears on the World Bank’s fiscal-year list of fragile and conflict-affected situations, for conflict or for institutional and social fragility.
- Conflict intensity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 40.0%Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
- Civilian harm sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
- Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
- External conflict and fragility assessments sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
- 紛争リスク指数Domain index · IDX · Mazziotta–ParetoMazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
- ハザードと脅威へのエクスポージャーPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- 専門家
- Aggregation
- Mazziotta–Pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- 不確実性
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- INFORM Risk hazard: human (structure only); ACLED Conflict Index (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide; OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
4 components, 15 indicators
Conflict intensity sub-index w 2
Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
紛争による死者（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:nis:IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | 40.0% |
政治的暴力事象IND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
紛争の地理的拡散IND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | % | Class D | derived:acled, ghsl-pop | 20.0% |
武装勢力の分裂IND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | 1 | Class D | derived:acled | 20.0% |
Civilian harm sub-index w 1.5
Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
民間人を標的とした事象IND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
標的型暴力による民間人死者（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:acled, ucdp-ged | 40.0% |
医療への攻撃IND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | 1 | Class B | who-surveillance-system-attacks-health-care, insecurity-insight | 20.0% |
地雷と爆発性戦争残存物による死傷者IND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | {persons} | Class C | landmine-monitor, unmas | 20.0% |
Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-index w 1
Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
故意殺人率IND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | /10*5 | Class B | unodc-homicide, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
暴動と暴力的デモIND.CON.peace.riot_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 25.0% |
軍事支出（GDP 比）IND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | % | Class B | sipri-milex, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
軍人（労働力に占める割合）IND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | % | Class B | iiss-military-balance, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
External conflict and fragility assessments sub-index w 0.5
Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
世界平和度指数の総合スコア（IEP）IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | {score} | Class C | iep-global-peace-index | 33.3% |
OECD 脆弱国家分類（States of Fragility）IND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | {class} | Class C | oecd-states-of-fragility | 33.3% |
世界銀行の脆弱・紛争影響下の状況（FCS）IND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | {bool} | Class C | wb-fcs-list | 33.3% |
紛争と安全保障
Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace.
| Sub-domain | 指標 |
|---|---|
| Organised violence | 10 |
| Civilian harm | 4 |
| Peacefulness | 3 |
| Fragility | 2 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): ACLED Conflict Index; Global Peace Index 2026; OECD States of Fragility 2025.
All 19 conflict and security indicators
| 指標 | 分野 | Sub-domain | 構成要素 | 単位 | レベル | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
組織的な政治的暴力による報告死者数IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED fatalities |
紛争による死者（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | SDG 16.1.2 |
戦闘関連死者数（UCDP）IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths | CON | Organised violence | hazard | {persons} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH |
政治的暴力事象IND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Political violence |
武力紛争事象IND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence |
紛争の地理的拡散IND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | CON | Organised violence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | ACLED Diffusion |
武装勢力の分裂IND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | ACLED Fragmentation |
故意殺人率IND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1 |
軍事支出（GDP 比）IND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
軍人（労働力に占める割合）IND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS |
民間人を標的とした事象IND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | CON | Civilian harm | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians |
標的型暴力による民間人死者（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | CON | Civilian harm | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | ACLED Danger |
医療への攻撃IND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
地雷と爆発性戦争残存物による死傷者IND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | CON | Civilian harm | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY | |
暴動と暴力的デモIND.CON.peace.riot_events | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ACLED Riots |
世界平和度指数の総合スコア（IEP）IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | CON | Peacefulness | vulnerability | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Overall Score |
世界平和度指数の進行中の紛争分野スコア（IEP）IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict |
OECD 脆弱国家分類（States of Fragility）IND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {class} | COUNTRY | OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts |
世界銀行の脆弱・紛争影響下の状況（FCS）IND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {bool} | COUNTRY |
Conflict risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- 前回の版
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- 結合総合
- –
- 結合スコア S
- –
- パルス、直近 1 週間
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- 手法
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- 抽出
- 1,000
公開済みの値はまだありません。最初の版で、区間の帯と区分の境界とともに履歴がここに描かれます。
Country values
- タイル
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/con/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- 観測キー
nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
ACLED | 7 |
WB_WDI | 3 |
SDG | 2 |
GPI | 1 |
OECD_FRAGILITY | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
引用と再利用
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
ステータス
The Global Risks Index の手法、構造、定義は準備段階の作業草案（2026 年）であり、レビューと意見募集のために配布されているもので、実施を目的としたものではありません。管理されたエビデンスの区切りから版が公表されるまで、値は一切表示されません。公表後の値には、区間、区分、出典、訂正の経路が付されます。シミュレーターは、公表された手法をあなたが選んだ数値で実行するものであり、NXS-GRX の値を表示することはありません。
NXS-GRX ではないもの
NXS-GRX は研究およびリスク分析の情報です。信用格付や ESG 格付ではなく、格付尺度を用いず、金融商品のベンチマークでも、公的統計でも、緊急警報や公式分類でも、助言でもありません。自然人の評価に用いてはなりません。リスククラスは公開された尺度上の区分であり、国や人の順位付けではありません。
機関と情報源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
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Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.