Indeks risiko konflik
Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
Mazziotta–Pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
4 components
15 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
Shows where organised violence is already deadly and where structural insecurity makes it likely; the penalty for unbalance stops low militarisation masking high deadliness.
- Korban jiwa konflik per 100,000 pendudukIndicator · IND · /10*5Reported fatalities from organised political violence in the year per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- Peristiwa kekerasan politikIndicator · IND · 1Number of events coded as political violence in the year: battles, explosions and remote violence, violence against civilians and mob violence.
- Sebaran geografis konflikIndicator · IND · %Share of the country’s populated grid cells (about 10 km) recording at least the diffusion threshold of political violence events in the year.
- Fragmentasi aktor bersenjataIndicator · IND · 1Number of distinct non-state armed and identity militia groups recorded as active in political violence events in the year.
- Peristiwa yang menyasar warga sipilIndicator · IND · 1Number of political violence events in the year in which civilians were the primary target, whatever the event type.
- Korban jiwa warga sipil akibat kekerasan yang menyasar, per 100,000 pendudukIndicator · IND · /10*5Deaths reported in events where civilians were the primary target, per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- Serangan terhadap layanan kesehatanIndicator · IND · 1Number of verified attacks on health facilities, transport, personnel, patients and supplies in the year.
- Korban ranjau darat dan sisa bahan peledak perangIndicator · IND · personsPeople killed or injured in the year by landmines, improvised mines, cluster munition remnants and other explosive remnants of war.
- Angka pembunuhan disengajaIndicator · IND · /10*5Victims of unlawful death purposely inflicted by another person, per 100,000 population, excluding deaths in armed conflict.
- Kerusuhan dan demonstrasi dengan kekerasanIndicator · IND · 1Number of violent demonstrations and mob-violence events in the year.
- Belanja militer, porsi terhadap PDBIndicator · IND · %Current and capital military spending, including armed forces, defence ministries, paramilitary forces and military aid, as a percentage of GDP (SIPRI definition).
- Personel angkatan bersenjata, porsi terhadap angkatan kerjaIndicator · IND · %Active-duty military and paramilitary personnel as a percentage of the total labour force.
- Skor keseluruhan Global Peace Index (IEP)Indicator · IND · scoreInstitute for Economics and Peace composite of societal safety, ongoing conflict and militarisation, from 1 (most peaceful) to 5, ingested as the published source series.
- Klasifikasi OECD States of FragilityIndicator · IND · classClass assigned in the OECD States of Fragility framework: 2 extremely fragile, 1 other fragile, 0 not listed, ingested as published for each edition.
- Status situasi rapuh dan terdampak konflik menurut Bank DuniaIndicator · IND · yes or noWhether the country appears on the World Bank’s fiscal-year list of fragile and conflict-affected situations, for conflict or for institutional and social fragility.
- Conflict intensity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 40.0%Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
- Civilian harm sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
- Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
- External conflict and fragility assessments sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
- Indeks risiko konflikDomain index · IDX · Mazziotta–ParetoMazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
- Paparan bahaya dan ancamanPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- ahli
- Aggregation
- Mazziotta–Pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Ketidakpastian
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- INFORM Risk hazard: human (structure only); ACLED Conflict Index (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide; OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
4 components, 15 indicators
Conflict intensity sub-index w 2
Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
| Indikator | Unit | Bukti | Sumber | Proporsi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Korban jiwa konflik per 100,000 pendudukIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:nis:IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | 40.0% |
Peristiwa kekerasan politikIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
Sebaran geografis konflikIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | % | Class D | derived:acled, ghsl-pop | 20.0% |
Fragmentasi aktor bersenjataIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | 1 | Class D | derived:acled | 20.0% |
Civilian harm sub-index w 1.5
Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
| Indikator | Unit | Bukti | Sumber | Proporsi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Peristiwa yang menyasar warga sipilIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
Korban jiwa warga sipil akibat kekerasan yang menyasar, per 100,000 pendudukIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:acled, ucdp-ged | 40.0% |
Serangan terhadap layanan kesehatanIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | 1 | Class B | who-surveillance-system-attacks-health-care, insecurity-insight | 20.0% |
Korban ranjau darat dan sisa bahan peledak perangIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | {persons} | Class C | landmine-monitor, unmas | 20.0% |
Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-index w 1
Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
| Indikator | Unit | Bukti | Sumber | Proporsi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Angka pembunuhan disengajaIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | /10*5 | Class B | unodc-homicide, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Kerusuhan dan demonstrasi dengan kekerasanIND.CON.peace.riot_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 25.0% |
Belanja militer, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | % | Class B | sipri-milex, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Personel angkatan bersenjata, porsi terhadap angkatan kerjaIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | % | Class B | iiss-military-balance, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
External conflict and fragility assessments sub-index w 0.5
Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
| Indikator | Unit | Bukti | Sumber | Proporsi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Skor keseluruhan Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | {score} | Class C | iep-global-peace-index | 33.3% |
Klasifikasi OECD States of FragilityIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | {class} | Class C | oecd-states-of-fragility | 33.3% |
Status situasi rapuh dan terdampak konflik menurut Bank DuniaIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | {bool} | Class C | wb-fcs-list | 33.3% |
Konflik dan keamanan
Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace.
| Sub-domain | Indikator |
|---|---|
| Organised violence | 10 |
| Civilian harm | 4 |
| Peacefulness | 3 |
| Fragility | 2 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): ACLED Conflict Index; Global Peace Index 2026; OECD States of Fragility 2025.
All 19 conflict and security indicators
| Indikator | Domain | Sub-domain | Komponen | Unit | Tingkat | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Korban jiwa yang dilaporkan akibat kekerasan politik terorganisasiIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED fatalities |
Korban jiwa konflik per 100,000 pendudukIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | SDG 16.1.2 |
Kematian terkait pertempuran (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths | CON | Organised violence | hazard | {persons} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH |
Peristiwa kekerasan politikIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Political violence |
Peristiwa konflik bersenjataIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence |
Sebaran geografis konflikIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | CON | Organised violence | keterpaparan | % | COUNTRY | ACLED Diffusion |
Fragmentasi aktor bersenjataIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | ACLED Fragmentation |
Angka pembunuhan disengajaIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1 |
Belanja militer, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
Personel angkatan bersenjata, porsi terhadap angkatan kerjaIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS |
Peristiwa yang menyasar warga sipilIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | CON | Civilian harm | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians |
Korban jiwa warga sipil akibat kekerasan yang menyasar, per 100,000 pendudukIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | CON | Civilian harm | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | ACLED Danger |
Serangan terhadap layanan kesehatanIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Korban ranjau darat dan sisa bahan peledak perangIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | CON | Civilian harm | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY | |
Kerusuhan dan demonstrasi dengan kekerasanIND.CON.peace.riot_events | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ACLED Riots |
Skor keseluruhan Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | CON | Peacefulness | vulnerability | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Overall Score |
Skor domain konflik berlangsung Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict |
Klasifikasi OECD States of FragilityIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {class} | COUNTRY | OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts |
Status situasi rapuh dan terdampak konflik menurut Bank DuniaIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {bool} | COUNTRY |
Conflict risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Edisi sebelumnya
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Komposit terkait
- –
- Skor keterkaitan S
- –
- Pulse, minggu terakhir
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Metode
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Sampel
- 1,000
Belum ada nilai yang diterbitkan. Edisi pertama menggambar riwayat di sini dengan pita interval dan batas kelas.
Country values
- Ubin peta
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/con/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Kunci observasi
nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
ACLED | 7 |
WB_WDI | 3 |
SDG | 2 |
GPI | 1 |
OECD_FRAGILITY | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Di seluruh Nexus
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Kutip dan gunakan kembali
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Status
Metodologi, struktur, dan definisi The Global Risks Index merupakan draf kerja persiapan (2026), yang diedarkan untuk ditinjau dan dikomentari, bukan untuk diterapkan. Tidak ada nilai yang ditampilkan sampai sebuah edisi dirilis dari pemotongan bukti yang diatur; nilai-nilai tersebut kemudian memuat interval, kelas, sumber, dan jalur koreksinya. Simulator menjalankan metode yang diterbitkan pada angka yang Anda pilih dan tidak pernah menampilkan nilai NXS-GRX.
Apa yang bukan NXS-GRX
NXS-GRX adalah informasi riset dan analitik risiko. NXS-GRX bukan peringkat kredit atau ESG dan tidak memakai skala peringkat, bukan acuan untuk instrumen keuangan, bukan statistik resmi, bukan peringatan darurat atau klasifikasi resmi, dan bukan nasihat. NXS-GRX tidak boleh digunakan untuk menilai orang perseorangan. Kelas risiko adalah pita pada skala yang diterbitkan, tidak pernah peringkat negara atau orang.
Lembaga dan sumber
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
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Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.