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The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-CON · HTE Hazard and threat exposure

분쟁 리스크 지수

Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-CONEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.CON.violence.conflict_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

Mazziotta–Pareto

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

불확실성

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

구조

4 components

15 leaf indicators

적용 범위

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
15
leaf indicators
4
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Shows where organised violence is already deadly and where structural insecurity makes it likely; the penalty for unbalance stops low militarisation masking high deadliness.

computation
How Conflict risk is computed
Graph22 nodes
그래프
01지표
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04기둥
05종합
100%
색인
  1. 인구 100,000명당 분쟁 사망자
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Reported fatalities from organised political violence in the year per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
  2. 정치 폭력 사건
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Number of events coded as political violence in the year: battles, explosions and remote violence, violence against civilians and mob violence.
  3. 분쟁의 지리적 확산
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the country’s populated grid cells (about 10 km) recording at least the diffusion threshold of political violence events in the year.
  4. 무장 행위자의 분열
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Number of distinct non-state armed and identity militia groups recorded as active in political violence events in the year.
  5. 민간인 대상 사건
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Number of political violence events in the year in which civilians were the primary target, whatever the event type.
  6. 표적 폭력으로 인한 민간인 사망자, 인구 100,000명당
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Deaths reported in events where civilians were the primary target, per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
  7. 보건의료에 대한 공격
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Number of verified attacks on health facilities, transport, personnel, patients and supplies in the year.
  8. 지뢰 및 폭발성 전쟁 잔류물로 인한 사상자
    Indicator · IND · persons
    People killed or injured in the year by landmines, improvised mines, cluster munition remnants and other explosive remnants of war.
  9. 고의적 살인율
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Victims of unlawful death purposely inflicted by another person, per 100,000 population, excluding deaths in armed conflict.
  10. 폭동 및 폭력 시위
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Number of violent demonstrations and mob-violence events in the year.
  11. 군사비 지출, GDP 대비 비율
    Indicator · IND · %
    Current and capital military spending, including armed forces, defence ministries, paramilitary forces and military aid, as a percentage of GDP (SIPRI definition).
  12. 군 병력, 노동력 대비 비율
    Indicator · IND · %
    Active-duty military and paramilitary personnel as a percentage of the total labour force.
  13. 세계평화지수 종합 점수(IEP)
    Indicator · IND · score
    Institute for Economics and Peace composite of societal safety, ongoing conflict and militarisation, from 1 (most peaceful) to 5, ingested as the published source series.
  14. OECD 취약국 분류
    Indicator · IND · class
    Class assigned in the OECD States of Fragility framework: 2 extremely fragile, 1 other fragile, 0 not listed, ingested as published for each edition.
  15. 세계은행 취약 및 분쟁 영향 상황 지위
    Indicator · IND · yes or no
    Whether the country appears on the World Bank’s fiscal-year list of fragile and conflict-affected situations, for conflict or for institutional and social fragility.
  16. Conflict intensity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 40.0%
    Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
  17. Civilian harm sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%
    Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
  18. Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
  19. External conflict and fragility assessments sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%
    Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
  20. 분쟁 리스크 지수
    Domain index · IDX · Mazziotta–Pareto
    Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
  21. 재해 및 위협 노출
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  22. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
실행 전진행 중완료
FIG 2. 15 indicators, 4 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate conflict risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
25
1
–
브라우저에서 실행됨
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03방법

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
전문가
Aggregation
Mazziotta–Pareto
Scale
0 to 10
불확실성
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
INFORM Risk hazard: human (structure only); ACLED Conflict Index (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide; OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
매우 낮음0.0 이상 2.0 미만
낮음2.0 이상 3.5 미만
중간3.5 이상 5.0 미만
높음5.0 이상 6.5 미만
매우 높음6.5~10.0
04Components

4 components, 15 indicators

Conflict intensity sub-index w 2

Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.

지표단위근거출처비중
인구 100,000명당 분쟁 사망자IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k/10*5Class Cderived:nis:IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities40.0%
정치 폭력 사건IND.CON.violence.political_violence_events1Class Cacled20.0%
분쟁의 지리적 확산IND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion%Class Dderived:acled, ghsl-pop20.0%
무장 행위자의 분열IND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation1Class Dderived:acled20.0%

Civilian harm sub-index w 1.5

Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.

지표단위근거출처비중
민간인 대상 사건IND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events1Class Cacled20.0%
표적 폭력으로 인한 민간인 사망자, 인구 100,000명당IND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k/10*5Class Cderived:acled, ucdp-ged40.0%
보건의료에 대한 공격IND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care1Class Bwho-surveillance-system-attacks-health-care, insecurity-insight20.0%
지뢰 및 폭발성 전쟁 잔류물로 인한 사상자IND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties{persons}Class Clandmine-monitor, unmas20.0%

Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-index w 1

Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.

지표단위근거출처비중
고의적 살인율IND.CON.violence.homicide_rate/10*5Class Bunodc-homicide, wb-wdi25.0%
폭동 및 폭력 시위IND.CON.peace.riot_events1Class Cacled25.0%
군사비 지출, GDP 대비 비율IND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp%Class Bsipri-milex, wb-wdi25.0%
군 병력, 노동력 대비 비율IND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share%Class Biiss-military-balance, wb-wdi25.0%

External conflict and fragility assessments sub-index w 0.5

Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.

지표단위근거출처비중
세계평화지수 종합 점수(IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score{score}Class Ciep-global-peace-index33.3%
OECD 취약국 분류IND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class{class}Class Coecd-states-of-fragility33.3%
세계은행 취약 및 분쟁 영향 상황 지위IND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status{bool}Class Cwb-fcs-list33.3%
05영역

분쟁과 안보

Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace.

Sub-domain지표
Organised violence10
Civilian harm4
Peacefulness3
Fragility2

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): ACLED Conflict Index; Global Peace Index 2026; OECD States of Fragility 2025.

06지표

All 19 conflict and security indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CON · 19
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
지표영역Sub-domain구성 요소단위단계Crosswalks
조직적 정치 폭력으로 인한 보고된 사망자IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalitiesCONOrganised violencehazard1COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRIDACLED fatalities
인구 100,000명당 분쟁 사망자IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100kCONOrganised violencehazard/10*5COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2SDG 16.1.2
전투 관련 사망자(UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deathsCONOrganised violencehazard{persons}COUNTRYWB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH
정치 폭력 사건IND.CON.violence.political_violence_eventsCONOrganised violencehazard1COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRIDACLED Political violence
무력 분쟁 사건IND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_eventsCONOrganised violencehazard1COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRIDACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence
분쟁의 지리적 확산IND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusionCONOrganised violenceexposure%COUNTRYACLED Diffusion
무장 행위자의 분열IND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentationCONOrganised violencehazard1COUNTRYACLED Fragmentation
고의적 살인율IND.CON.violence.homicide_rateCONOrganised violencehazard/10*5COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYWB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1
군사비 지출, GDP 대비 비율IND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdpCONOrganised violencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
군 병력, 노동력 대비 비율IND.CON.violence.armed_forces_shareCONOrganised violencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS
민간인 대상 사건IND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_eventsCONCivilian harmhazard1COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRIDACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians
표적 폭력으로 인한 민간인 사망자, 인구 100,000명당IND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100kCONCivilian harmimpact/10*5COUNTRY, ADM1ACLED Danger
보건의료에 대한 공격IND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_careCONCivilian harmimpact1COUNTRY
지뢰 및 폭발성 전쟁 잔류물로 인한 사상자IND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualtiesCONCivilian harmimpact{persons}COUNTRY
폭동 및 폭력 시위IND.CON.peace.riot_eventsCONPeacefulnesshazard1COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYACLED Riots
세계평화지수 종합 점수(IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_scoreCONPeacefulnessvulnerability{score}COUNTRYGPI Overall Score
세계평화지수 진행 중 분쟁 영역 점수(IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflictCONPeacefulnesshazard{score}COUNTRYGPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict
OECD 취약국 분류IND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_classCONFragilityvulnerability{class}COUNTRYOECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts
세계은행 취약 및 분쟁 영향 상황 지위IND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_statusCONFragilityvulnerability{bool}COUNTRY
07인용

Conflict risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · CON · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Conflict risk index, world
–
값은 판과 함께 게시되며, 구간, 등급, 변화가 여기에 표시됩니다.
이전 판
–
Range since 2016
–
결합 종합
–
결합 점수 S
–
동향, 최근 1주
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
방법
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
추출
1,000
Conflict risk index, world, by edition

아직 공개된 값이 없습니다. 첫 판에서 구간 띠와 등급 경계와 함께 이력이 여기에 그려집니다.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
아프리카54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
아메리카35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
아시아48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
유럽44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
오세아니아14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
아직 변동이 없습니다. 두 번째 판부터는 이전 판 대비 변화가 이를 이끈 지표와 함께 여기에 표시됩니다.
08값

Country values

FIG 5 · Conflict risk index: countries (values when released)
지도를 불러오는 중
안도라앤티가 바부다바레인바베이도스코모로카보베르데도미니카미크로네시아그레나다키리바시세인트키츠 네비스세인트루시아리히텐슈타인모나코몰디브마셜 제도몰타모리셔스나우루팔라우싱가포르산마리노상투메 프린시페세이셸통가투발루교황청세인트빈센트 그레나딘사모아
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
타일
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/con/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
관측 키
nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09시리즈

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security. SR-02Conflict, fragility and human securityConflict risk and escalation, fragility, organised violence, civilian harm and the conflict–climate–food–displacement nexus. SR-11Information integrity and social cohesionInformation disorder, polarisation, trust and cohesion as amplifiers of every other risk. XT-08Drones, robotics and autonomous systemsAutonomous and robotic systems in logistics, agriculture, industry and security: failure, misuse and safety oversight. TH-04Disaster Risk Intelligence (DRI)Signals, observations, event streams, geospatial layers and scenario packs turned into structured risk intelligence for preparedness and planning.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
ACLED7
WB_WDI3
SDG2
GPI1
OECD_FRAGILITY1
11Nexus 전반

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12인용

인용과 재사용

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Conflict risk index (GRX-IDX-CON), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/conflict-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000114.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

상태

Global Risks Index의 방법론, 구조, 정의는 검토와 의견 수렴을 위해 배포된 예비 작업 초안(2026)이며 이행용이 아닙니다. 관리되는 근거 마감에 따라 판이 공개되기 전까지는 어떠한 값도 표시되지 않으며, 공개 후 값에는 구간, 등급, 출처, 정정 경로가 함께 표시됩니다. 시뮬레이터는 귀하가 선택한 숫자에 공개된 방법을 적용할 뿐이며 NXS-GRX 값을 표시하지 않습니다.

NXS-GRX가 아닌 것

NXS-GRX는 연구 및 리스크 분석 정보입니다. 신용등급이나 ESG 등급이 아니며 등급 척도를 사용하지 않고, 금융상품의 벤치마크도, 공식 통계도, 긴급 경보나 공식 분류도, 자문도 아닙니다. 자연인 평가에 사용해서는 안 됩니다. 리스크 등급은 공개된 척도 위의 구간이며, 국가나 사람의 순위가 결코 아닙니다.

기관과 출처

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

모든 값에는 출처 표시가 함께 제공되며, 각 출처는 고유한 라이선스를 유지합니다. 외부 명칭은 상호운용성을 위해서만 인용됩니다. Nexus가 작성한 텍스트는 공개 시 CC BY 4.0 적용을 예정합니다.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.