Índice de riesgo de conflicto
Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
Mazziotta–Pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
4 components
15 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
Shows where organised violence is already deadly and where structural insecurity makes it likely; the penalty for unbalance stops low militarisation masking high deadliness.
- Víctimas mortales de conflictos por cada 100,000 habitantesIndicator · IND · /10*5Reported fatalities from organised political violence in the year per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- Eventos de violencia políticaIndicator · IND · 1Number of events coded as political violence in the year: battles, explosions and remote violence, violence against civilians and mob violence.
- Difusión geográfica del conflictoIndicator · IND · %Share of the country’s populated grid cells (about 10 km) recording at least the diffusion threshold of political violence events in the year.
- Fragmentación de los actores armadosIndicator · IND · 1Number of distinct non-state armed and identity militia groups recorded as active in political violence events in the year.
- Eventos dirigidos contra civilesIndicator · IND · 1Number of political violence events in the year in which civilians were the primary target, whatever the event type.
- Víctimas mortales civiles por violencia dirigida, por cada 100,000 habitantesIndicator · IND · /10*5Deaths reported in events where civilians were the primary target, per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- Ataques contra la atención sanitariaIndicator · IND · 1Number of verified attacks on health facilities, transport, personnel, patients and supplies in the year.
- Víctimas de minas terrestres y restos explosivos de guerraIndicator · IND · personsPeople killed or injured in the year by landmines, improvised mines, cluster munition remnants and other explosive remnants of war.
- Tasa de homicidios intencionalesIndicator · IND · /10*5Victims of unlawful death purposely inflicted by another person, per 100,000 population, excluding deaths in armed conflict.
- Disturbios y manifestaciones violentasIndicator · IND · 1Number of violent demonstrations and mob-violence events in the year.
- Gasto militar, porcentaje del PIBIndicator · IND · %Current and capital military spending, including armed forces, defence ministries, paramilitary forces and military aid, as a percentage of GDP (SIPRI definition).
- Personal de las fuerzas armadas, porcentaje de la fuerza laboralIndicator · IND · %Active-duty military and paramilitary personnel as a percentage of the total labour force.
- Puntuación general del Global Peace Index (IEP)Indicator · IND · scoreInstitute for Economics and Peace composite of societal safety, ongoing conflict and militarisation, from 1 (most peaceful) to 5, ingested as the published source series.
- Clasificación States of Fragility de la OCDEIndicator · IND · classClass assigned in the OECD States of Fragility framework: 2 extremely fragile, 1 other fragile, 0 not listed, ingested as published for each edition.
- Situación de fragilidad y conflicto según el Banco MundialIndicator · IND · yes or noWhether the country appears on the World Bank’s fiscal-year list of fragile and conflict-affected situations, for conflict or for institutional and social fragility.
- Conflict intensity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 40.0%Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
- Civilian harm sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
- Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
- External conflict and fragility assessments sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
- Índice de riesgo de conflictoDomain index · IDX · Mazziotta–ParetoMazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
- Exposición a amenazasPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- experto
- Aggregation
- Mazziotta–Pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Incertidumbre
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- INFORM Risk hazard: human (structure only); ACLED Conflict Index (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide; OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
4 components, 15 indicators
Conflict intensity sub-index w 2
Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Víctimas mortales de conflictos por cada 100,000 habitantesIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:nis:IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | 40.0% |
Eventos de violencia políticaIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
Difusión geográfica del conflictoIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | % | Class D | derived:acled, ghsl-pop | 20.0% |
Fragmentación de los actores armadosIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | 1 | Class D | derived:acled | 20.0% |
Civilian harm sub-index w 1.5
Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Eventos dirigidos contra civilesIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
Víctimas mortales civiles por violencia dirigida, por cada 100,000 habitantesIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:acled, ucdp-ged | 40.0% |
Ataques contra la atención sanitariaIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | 1 | Class B | who-surveillance-system-attacks-health-care, insecurity-insight | 20.0% |
Víctimas de minas terrestres y restos explosivos de guerraIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | {persons} | Class C | landmine-monitor, unmas | 20.0% |
Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-index w 1
Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Tasa de homicidios intencionalesIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | /10*5 | Class B | unodc-homicide, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Disturbios y manifestaciones violentasIND.CON.peace.riot_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 25.0% |
Gasto militar, porcentaje del PIBIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | % | Class B | sipri-milex, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Personal de las fuerzas armadas, porcentaje de la fuerza laboralIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | % | Class B | iiss-military-balance, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
External conflict and fragility assessments sub-index w 0.5
Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Puntuación general del Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | {score} | Class C | iep-global-peace-index | 33.3% |
Clasificación States of Fragility de la OCDEIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | {class} | Class C | oecd-states-of-fragility | 33.3% |
Situación de fragilidad y conflicto según el Banco MundialIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | {bool} | Class C | wb-fcs-list | 33.3% |
Conflicto y seguridad
Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace.
| Sub-domain | Indicadores |
|---|---|
| Organised violence | 10 |
| Civilian harm | 4 |
| Peacefulness | 3 |
| Fragility | 2 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): ACLED Conflict Index; Global Peace Index 2026; OECD States of Fragility 2025.
All 19 conflict and security indicators
| Indicador | Dominio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unidad | Niveles | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Víctimas mortales notificadas por violencia política organizadaIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED fatalities |
Víctimas mortales de conflictos por cada 100,000 habitantesIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | SDG 16.1.2 |
Muertes relacionadas con combates (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths | CON | Organised violence | hazard | {persons} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH |
Eventos de violencia políticaIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Political violence |
Eventos de conflicto armadoIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence |
Difusión geográfica del conflictoIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | CON | Organised violence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | ACLED Diffusion |
Fragmentación de los actores armadosIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | ACLED Fragmentation |
Tasa de homicidios intencionalesIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1 |
Gasto militar, porcentaje del PIBIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
Personal de las fuerzas armadas, porcentaje de la fuerza laboralIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS |
Eventos dirigidos contra civilesIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | CON | Civilian harm | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians |
Víctimas mortales civiles por violencia dirigida, por cada 100,000 habitantesIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | CON | Civilian harm | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | ACLED Danger |
Ataques contra la atención sanitariaIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Víctimas de minas terrestres y restos explosivos de guerraIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | CON | Civilian harm | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY | |
Disturbios y manifestaciones violentasIND.CON.peace.riot_events | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ACLED Riots |
Puntuación general del Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | CON | Peacefulness | vulnerability | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Overall Score |
Puntuación del dominio de conflicto en curso del Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict |
Clasificación States of Fragility de la OCDEIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {class} | COUNTRY | OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts |
Situación de fragilidad y conflicto según el Banco MundialIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {bool} | COUNTRY |
Conflict risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Edición anterior
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Compuesto acoplado
- –
- Puntuación de acoplamiento S
- –
- Pulso, última semana
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Método
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Extracciones
- 1,000
Aún no hay valores publicados. La primera edición trazará aquí la serie histórica con su banda de intervalo y los límites de clase.
Country values
- Teselas
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/con/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Clave de observación
nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
ACLED | 7 |
WB_WDI | 3 |
SDG | 2 |
GPI | 1 |
OECD_FRAGILITY | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
En todo el Nexus
GCRI Registry · GCRI Campaigns · GCRI Agency · GRF Diplomacy · Governance Nexus · GRF Information Integrity and Public Trust.
Citar y reutilizar
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Estado
La metodología, la estructura y las definiciones de The Global Risks Index son un borrador de trabajo preparatorio (2026), difundido para examen y comentarios y no para su aplicación. Ningún valor aparece hasta que se publica una edición a partir de un corte de evidencia gobernado; los valores incluyen entonces intervalos, clases, fuentes y su vía de corrección. Los simuladores aplican los métodos publicados a las cifras que usted elija y nunca muestran un valor del NXS-GRX.
Lo que NXS-GRX no es
NXS-GRX es información de investigación y analítica de riesgos. No es una calificación crediticia ni ESG y no usa ninguna escala de calificación; no es un índice de referencia para instrumentos financieros, ni estadística oficial, ni una alerta de emergencia o clasificación oficial, ni asesoramiento. No debe usarse para evaluar a personas físicas. Las clases de riesgo son bandas en una escala publicada, nunca clasificaciones de países ni de personas.
Instituciones y fuentes
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Cada valor lleva la atribución de sus fuentes, que conservan sus propias licencias. Los nombres externos se citan únicamente a efectos de interoperabilidad. Los textos de autoría de Nexus están destinados a publicarse bajo CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.