Îndeksa rîska pevçûnê
Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
Mazziotta–Pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
4 components
15 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
Shows where organised violence is already deadly and where structural insecurity makes it likely; the penalty for unbalance stops low militarisation masking high deadliness.
- Kuştiyên pevçûnê ji her 100,000 kesîIndicator · IND · /10*5Reported fatalities from organised political violence in the year per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- Bûyerên tundiya siyasîIndicator · IND · 1Number of events coded as political violence in the year: battles, explosions and remote violence, violence against civilians and mob violence.
- Belavbûna erdnîgarî ya pevçûnêIndicator · IND · %Share of the country’s populated grid cells (about 10 km) recording at least the diffusion threshold of political violence events in the year.
- Perçebûna aktorên çekdarIndicator · IND · 1Number of distinct non-state armed and identity militia groups recorded as active in political violence events in the year.
- Bûyerên ku sivîlan dikin armancIndicator · IND · 1Number of political violence events in the year in which civilians were the primary target, whatever the event type.
- Kuştiyên sivîl ji tundiya armanckirî, ji her 100,000 kesîIndicator · IND · /10*5Deaths reported in events where civilians were the primary target, per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- Êrişên li ser lênêrîna tenduristiyêIndicator · IND · 1Number of verified attacks on health facilities, transport, personnel, patients and supplies in the year.
- Qurbaniyên mayînan û bermahiyên teqemenî yên şerIndicator · IND · personsPeople killed or injured in the year by landmines, improvised mines, cluster munition remnants and other explosive remnants of war.
- Rêjeya kuştina bi qestîIndicator · IND · /10*5Victims of unlawful death purposely inflicted by another person, per 100,000 population, excluding deaths in armed conflict.
- Serhildan û xwepêşandanên tundûtûjîIndicator · IND · 1Number of violent demonstrations and mob-violence events in the year.
- Lêçûnên leşkerî, para GDPIndicator · IND · %Current and capital military spending, including armed forces, defence ministries, paramilitary forces and military aid, as a percentage of GDP (SIPRI definition).
- Personelên hêzên çekdar, para hêza karIndicator · IND · %Active-duty military and paramilitary personnel as a percentage of the total labour force.
- Puana giştî ya Global Peace Index (IEP)Indicator · IND · scoreInstitute for Economics and Peace composite of societal safety, ongoing conflict and militarisation, from 1 (most peaceful) to 5, ingested as the published source series.
- Senifandina OECD States of FragilityIndicator · IND · classClass assigned in the OECD States of Fragility framework: 2 extremely fragile, 1 other fragile, 0 not listed, ingested as published for each edition.
- Rewşa World Bank ya lawaz û ji pevçûnê bandorbûyîIndicator · IND · yes or noWhether the country appears on the World Bank’s fiscal-year list of fragile and conflict-affected situations, for conflict or for institutional and social fragility.
- Conflict intensity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 40.0%Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
- Civilian harm sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
- Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
- External conflict and fragility assessments sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
- Îndeksa rîska pevçûnêDomain index · IDX · Mazziotta–ParetoMazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
- Rûbirûbûna xeter û gefanPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- pispor
- Aggregation
- Mazziotta–Pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Nediyarî
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- INFORM Risk hazard: human (structure only); ACLED Conflict Index (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide; OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
4 components, 15 indicators
Conflict intensity sub-index w 2
Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
| Nîşander | Yekîne | Delîl | Çavkanî | Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Kuştiyên pevçûnê ji her 100,000 kesîIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:nis:IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | 40.0% |
Bûyerên tundiya siyasîIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
Belavbûna erdnîgarî ya pevçûnêIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | % | Class D | derived:acled, ghsl-pop | 20.0% |
Perçebûna aktorên çekdarIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | 1 | Class D | derived:acled | 20.0% |
Civilian harm sub-index w 1.5
Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
| Nîşander | Yekîne | Delîl | Çavkanî | Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bûyerên ku sivîlan dikin armancIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
Kuştiyên sivîl ji tundiya armanckirî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:acled, ucdp-ged | 40.0% |
Êrişên li ser lênêrîna tenduristiyêIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | 1 | Class B | who-surveillance-system-attacks-health-care, insecurity-insight | 20.0% |
Qurbaniyên mayînan û bermahiyên teqemenî yên şerIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | {persons} | Class C | landmine-monitor, unmas | 20.0% |
Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-index w 1
Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
| Nîşander | Yekîne | Delîl | Çavkanî | Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Rêjeya kuştina bi qestîIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | /10*5 | Class B | unodc-homicide, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Serhildan û xwepêşandanên tundûtûjîIND.CON.peace.riot_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 25.0% |
Lêçûnên leşkerî, para GDPIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | % | Class B | sipri-milex, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Personelên hêzên çekdar, para hêza karIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | % | Class B | iiss-military-balance, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
External conflict and fragility assessments sub-index w 0.5
Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
| Nîşander | Yekîne | Delîl | Çavkanî | Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Puana giştî ya Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | {score} | Class C | iep-global-peace-index | 33.3% |
Senifandina OECD States of FragilityIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | {class} | Class C | oecd-states-of-fragility | 33.3% |
Rewşa World Bank ya lawaz û ji pevçûnê bandorbûyîIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | {bool} | Class C | wb-fcs-list | 33.3% |
Pevçûn û ewlehî
Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace.
| Sub-domain | Nîşander |
|---|---|
| Organised violence | 10 |
| Civilian harm | 4 |
| Peacefulness | 3 |
| Fragility | 2 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): ACLED Conflict Index; Global Peace Index 2026; OECD States of Fragility 2025.
All 19 conflict and security indicators
| Nîşander | Qad | Sub-domain | Component | Yekîne | Ast | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kuştiyên ragihandî ji tundiya siyasî ya rêxistinkirîIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED fatalities |
Kuştiyên pevçûnê ji her 100,000 kesîIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | SDG 16.1.2 |
Mirinên girêdayî şeran (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths | CON | Organised violence | hazard | {persons} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH |
Bûyerên tundiya siyasîIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Political violence |
Bûyerên pevçûna çekdarîIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence |
Belavbûna erdnîgarî ya pevçûnêIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | CON | Organised violence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | ACLED Diffusion |
Perçebûna aktorên çekdarIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | ACLED Fragmentation |
Rêjeya kuştina bi qestîIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1 |
Lêçûnên leşkerî, para GDPIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
Personelên hêzên çekdar, para hêza karIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS |
Bûyerên ku sivîlan dikin armancIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | CON | Civilian harm | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians |
Kuştiyên sivîl ji tundiya armanckirî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | CON | Civilian harm | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | ACLED Danger |
Êrişên li ser lênêrîna tenduristiyêIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Qurbaniyên mayînan û bermahiyên teqemenî yên şerIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | CON | Civilian harm | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY | |
Serhildan û xwepêşandanên tundûtûjîIND.CON.peace.riot_events | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ACLED Riots |
Puana giştî ya Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | CON | Peacefulness | vulnerability | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Overall Score |
Puana qada pevçûnên berdewam a Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict |
Senifandina OECD States of FragilityIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {class} | COUNTRY | OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts |
Rewşa World Bank ya lawaz û ji pevçûnê bandorbûyîIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {bool} | COUNTRY |
Conflict risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Previous edition
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Coupled composite
- –
- Coupling score S
- –
- Pulse, latest week
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Rêbaz
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Draws
- 1,000
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
Country values
- Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/con/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Rêbera çavdêriyê
nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
ACLED | 7 |
WB_WDI | 3 |
SDG | 2 |
GPI | 1 |
OECD_FRAGILITY | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Across the Nexus
GCRI Registry · GCRI Campaigns · GCRI Agency · GRF Diplomacy · Governance Nexus · GRF Information Integrity and Public Trust.
Jêgirtin û ji nû ve bikaranîn
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Rewş
Rêbaz, avahî û pênaseyên The Global Risks Index pêşnivîseke xebatê ya amadekar in (2026), ji bo nirxandin û şîroveyê tên belavkirin, ne ji bo bicîhanînê. Heta ku çapek ji birrîneke delîlan a birêvebirî neyê weşandin, tu nirx xuya nabe; piştre nirx navber, çîn, çavkanî û rêya xwe ya rastkirinê bi xwe re tînin. Simulator rêbazên weşandî li ser hejmarên ku tu hildibijêrî dixebitînin û qet nirxeke NXS-GRX nîşan nadin.
NXS-GRX çi nîne
NXS-GRX agahiya lêkolîn û analîza xetereyê ye. Ew ne nirxandina krediyê an ESG ye û tu pîvaneke pileyan bi kar nayîne, ne pîvana referansê ya amûrên darayî ye, ne statîstîkên fermî ye, ne hişyariya awarte an dabeşkirina fermî ye, û ne şîret e. Divê ji bo nirxandina kesên xwezayî neyê bikaranîn. Çînên xetereyê bendên li ser pîvaneke weşandî ne, qet ne rêzkirina welatan an mirovan in.
Sazî û çavkanî
Nexus Consortium ji aliyê sê saziyên ne-qezencî yên serbixwe ve tê parastin: Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), bi rêya GCRI US li Waşington, DC û GCRI Canada li Ontarioyê, bi GCRI Canada wekî Saziya Pêşeng, Sekreteryaya Konsorsiyûmê û rêxistina peymanê ya pêşeng; Global Risks Forum (GRF); û Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Dabînkerên teknolojî, binesazî û xizmetê bi Konsorsiyûmê re ji dûr ve li gorî peymanên nivîskî dixebitin, wek her aliyekî din ê derve di modela giştî-taybet-gerstêrkê de, û di parastina wê de tu rola wan tune.
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Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.