The Global Risks Index · SR-02 · Strategic systems series
Pevçûn, nazikî û ewlehiya mirovî
Xetera pevçûnê û tundbûn, nazikî, tundiya organîzekirî, zerara sivîlan û girêdana pevçûn-avhewa-xwarin-koçberkirinê.
Page GRX-SER-SR-02Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports SR-02 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Îndeksên waran
1
Conflict risk
Nîşander
140
5 index domains
Hazard families
14
Civak, nakokî û aborî
Rêbaz
21
Jeopolîtîk, pevçûn û ewlehiya mirovî
1
domain indices
140
indicators in scope
1
hazard domains
5
client groups
01Çarçove
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Where is conflict likely to start or escalate?
- Which fragile contexts are most exposed to compound shocks?
- How does conflict propagate into food insecurity and displacement?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Conflict, fragility and human security index is built
Graph5 nodes
Grafîk
01Îndeksên waran
02Series index
03Readings
100%
Lîste
-
Conflict riskDomain index · IDX · CONMazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
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Conflict, fragility and human security indexSeries index · SERIES · SR-02Xetera pevçûnê û tundbûn, nazikî, tundiya organîzekirî, zerara sivîlan û girêdana pevçûn-avhewa-xwarin-koçberkirinê.
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Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
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Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runDi pêvajoyê deQediya
03Îndeks
Domain indices in this series
The Global Risks Index · SR-02 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Conflict, fragility and human security index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
| Navnîşan | Nirx | Guhertin | Guhertin % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Meyl | Navber |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conflict riskNXS-GRX · CON |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Conflict and security, Governance and institutions, Demography and mobility, Food systems, Social and human development.
04Nîşander
140 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Nîşander | Qad | Sub-domain | Component | Yekîne | Ast | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Enflasyona bihayên xwarinêIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation |
MAC | Prices and inflation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT CP |
Rêjeya bêkariyêIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate |
MAC | Labour market | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT |
Puana nîşanderê hevedudanî ya LIC-DSF (weşandî, referans)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator |
FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Deynê malbatan, para GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp |
FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSHG_PT |
Xwedîtiya hesabê, mezinIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership |
FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2 |
Pereyên şandî yên kesane yên wergirtî, para GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp |
ECO | Bazirganî | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
Îthalata xwarinê, para îthalata kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
Bazirganiya deryayî ya li ber tengavên deryayîIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Amadebûna aborî ji bo veberhênana lihevhatinêIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
Amadebûna rêveberiyê ji bo lihevhatinêIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
Amadebûna civakî ji bo lihevhatinêIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN social |
Pirbûna stresa hişkesaliya çandiniyêIND.HAZ.drought.agricultural_stress_frequency |
HAZ | Hişkesalî | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | INFORM ASI |
Rûbirûbûna ozonê ya herî bilind a demsalîIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure |
ENV | Air quality | hazard | [ppb] |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Erda xirabbûyî, para rûerda bejahiyêIND.ENV.land.land_degradation.share |
ENV | Land and forests | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | SDG 15.3.1 |
Stokên masiyan di nav astên bîyolojîk ên domdar deIND.ENV.ocean.sustainable_fish_stocks.share |
ENV | Ocean | vulnerability | % |
GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY | SDG 14.4.1 |
Nirxa berhemên çandiniyê ya girêdayî tozkirina ajalan, paraIND.ENV.nature_dependence.pollinator_dependent_crops.share |
ENV | Nature dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
Asta stresa avêIND.WAT.stress.water_stress |
WAT | Water stress | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS |
Rêjeya girêdayîbûnê bi ava nûbûyî ya derveIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Rûerda hewzên sînorbirr bi hevkariya çalakIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.5.2 |
Nifûsa bi lêçûnên tenduristiyê yên felaketî ji berîka xweIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS |
Kurtmayîna zarokên di bin pênc salî deIND.HLT.nutrition.stunting |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025 |
Lawazbûna zarokên di bin pênc salî deIND.HLT.nutrition.wasting |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026 |
Kêmxwînî di nav jinên di temenê zayînê deIND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043 |
Belavbûna kêmxwarinêIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment |
FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS |
Hejmara kesên kêmxwarîIND.FOO.availability.people_undernourished |
FOO | Availability | vulnerability | {persons} |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210011 |
Têrbûna navîn a dabînkirina enerjiya xwarinêIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy |
FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21010 |
Guhêrbariya dabînkirina xwarinê ji bo her kesîIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability |
FOO | Availability | vulnerability | kcal/d/{person} |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21031 |
Rêjeya girêdayîbûna bi îthalata dexlêIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency |
FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
Bêewlehiya xwarinê ya navîn an dijwar (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe |
FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS |
Bêewlehiya xwarinê ya dijwar (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe |
FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS |
Lêçûna xwarineke tenduristIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost |
FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | [USD] |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_PPP |
Nifûsa ku nikare xwarineke tendurist bikireIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable |
FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_headcount |
Nifûsa di IPC Phase 3 an jortir deIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population |
FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {persons} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
Para nifûsa analîzkirî ya di IPC Phase 3 an jortir deIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share |
FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
IPC Phase 3 an jortir, para tevahiya nifûsêIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_total |
FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % |
COUNTRY | |
Hebûna nifûsê di IPC Phase 5 deIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence |
FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {bool} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 5 |
Nîşanderê anomaliyên bihayê xwarinê (CPI ya xwarinê)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly |
FOO | Food prices | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY | SDG 2.c.1 |
Mehên bi bihayên xwarinê yên nenormal bilindIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months |
FOO | Food prices | hazard | % |
COUNTRY | |
Fatûreya îthalata xwarinê, para hinardekirina kelûmelanIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports |
FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
Nirxa zêdekirî ya çandinî, daristanî û masîgiriyê, para GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
Kar di çandiniyê de, para tevahiya karanIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS |
Berhema dexlêIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | kg/har |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG |
Guhêrbariya berhema dexlê (15 salî)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Kişandina avê ji bo çandiniyê, para tevahiyêIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS |
Erda çandiniyê, para rûerda bejahiyêIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS |
Vegetation Health Index li ser erda çandiniyêIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | hazard | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | |
Hejmara xizaniya tund, USD 3.00 di rojê de (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300 |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1 |
Hejmara xizaniyê, USD 4.20 di rojê de (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420 |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC |
Hejmara xizaniyê, USD 8.30 di rojê de (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830 |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC |
Hejmara xizaniyê li gorî xeta xizaniyê ya neteweyîIND.SOC.poverty.national_poverty |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1 |
Hejmara xizaniya pirrehendî (MPI ya cîhanî)IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_poverty |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB |
Îndeksa GiniIND.SOC.inequality.gini |
SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.GINI |
Para dahat an xerckirinê ya 40 ji sedî yên jêrînIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_share |
SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20 |
Mezinbûna xerckirin an dahata 40 ji sedî yên jêrînIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growth |
SOC | Inequality | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1 |
Windabûna di pêşketina mirovî de ji ber newekheviyêIND.SOC.inequality.human_development_loss |
SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | HDR loss |
Navgîniya salên xwendinêIND.SOC.education.mean_years_schooling |
SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | a |
COUNTRY | HDR mys |
Salên xwendinê yên hêvîkirîIND.SOC.education.expected_years_schooling |
SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | a |
COUNTRY | HDR eys |
Xizaniya fêrbûnêIND.SOC.education.learning_poverty |
SOC | Education | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1 |
Rêjeya xwendewariya mezinanIND.SOC.education.adult_literacy |
SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1 |
Îndeksa Newekheviya Zayendî (UNDP)IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_index |
SOC | Gender | vulnerability | {score} |
COUNTRY | HDR gii |
Rêjeya beşdariya jinan di hêza kar deIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation |
SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS |
Kursiyên jinan di parlamentoya neteweyî deIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament |
SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
Nifûsa ku herî kêm bi yek alîkariya parastina civakî tê pêgirtinIND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverage |
SOC | Social protection | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot |
Ciwanên ne di kar, xwendin an perwerdeyê deIND.SOC.protection.youth_neet |
SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT |
Karê nefermî, para tevahiya karanIND.SOC.protection.informal_employment |
SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS |
Zarokên 5 heta 17 salî di karê zarokan deIND.SOC.protection.child_labour |
SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS |
Îndeksa Pêşketina Mirovî (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.hdi |
SOC | Pêşketina mirovî | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | HDR hdi |
Îndeksa Pêşketina Mirovî ya li gorî newekheviyê (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.ihdi |
SOC | Pêşketina mirovî | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | HDR ihdi |
Tevahiya nifûsêIND.DEM.population.total |
DEM | Nifûs | context | {persons} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI SP.POP.TOTL UN_WPP TPopulation1July |
Çirbûna nifûsêIND.DEM.population.density |
DEM | Nifûs | context | {persons}/km2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI EN.POP.DNST UN_WPP PopDensity |
Mezinbûna nifûsêIND.DEM.population.growth |
DEM | Nifûs | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.GROW UN_WPP PopGrowthRate |
Rêjeya giştî ya zayînêIND.DEM.population.fertility_rate |
DEM | Nifûs | context | {births}/{woman} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.DYN.TFRT.IN UN_WPP TFR |
Rêjeya girêdayîbûna temenîIND.DEM.structure.age_dependency |
DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.DPND |
Nifûsa 65 salî û zêdetir, para tevahiyêIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus |
DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS |
Nifûsa di bin 15 salî de, para tevahiyêIND.DEM.structure.share_under15 |
DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS |
Nifûsa bajarî, para tevahiyêIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share |
DEM | Urbanisation | context | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS |
Mezinbûna nifûsa bajarîIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth |
DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW |
Nifûsa bajarî ya li taxên xizan dijîIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share |
DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1 |
Penaber li gorî welatê eslêIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | {persons} |
COUNTRY | UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR |
Penaber li gorî welatê eslê, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | SDG 10.7.4 |
Penaberên mazûvanîkirî (welatê penaberiyê)IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted |
DEM | Forced displacement | exposure | {persons} |
COUNTRY | UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG |
Penaberên mazûvanîkirî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | exposure | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | |
Daxwazkarên penaberiyê yên mazûvanîkirî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.asylum_seekers_hosted.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | exposure | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | UNHCR ASY |
Koçberên navxweyî, pevçûn û tundî (stok)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | {persons} |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP |
Koçberên navxweyî, karesat (stok)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disaster |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | {persons} |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC disaster_total_displacement |
Koçberên navxweyî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | |
Koçberiyên navxweyî yên nû, pevçûn û tundîIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV |
Koçberiyên navxweyî yên nû, karesatIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disaster |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC disaster_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWDS |
Koçberiyên navxweyî yên nû, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | |
Koçberiya netIND.DEM.migration.net_migration |
DEM | Migration | context | {persons} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SM.POP.NETM UN_WPP NetMigrations |
Rêjeya koçberiya netIND.DEM.migration.net_migration_rate |
DEM | Migration | context | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | UN_WPP CNMR |
Stoka koçberên navneteweyî, para nifûsêIND.DEM.migration.migrant_stock_share |
DEM | Migration | context | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SM.POP.TOTL.ZS |
Kuştiyên ragihandî ji tundiya siyasî ya rêxistinkirîIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED fatalities |
Kuştiyên pevçûnê ji her 100,000 kesîIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | SDG 16.1.2 |
Mirinên girêdayî şeran (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | {persons} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH |
Bûyerên tundiya siyasîIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Political violence |
Bûyerên pevçûna çekdarîIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence |
Belavbûna erdnîgarî ya pevçûnêIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion |
CON | Organised violence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | ACLED Diffusion |
Perçebûna aktorên çekdarIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY | ACLED Fragmentation |
Rêjeya kuştina bi qestîIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1 |
Lêçûnên leşkerî, para GDPIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp |
CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
Personelên hêzên çekdar, para hêza karIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share |
CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS |
Bûyerên ku sivîlan dikin armancIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events |
CON | Civilian harm | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians |
Kuştiyên sivîl ji tundiya armanckirî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k |
CON | Civilian harm | impact | /10*5 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | ACLED Danger |
Êrişên li ser lênêrîna tenduristiyêIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care |
CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Qurbaniyên mayînan û bermahiyên teqemenî yên şerIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties |
CON | Civilian harm | impact | {persons} |
COUNTRY | |
Serhildan û xwepêşandanên tundûtûjîIND.CON.peace.riot_events |
CON | Peacefulness | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ACLED Riots |
Puana giştî ya Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score |
CON | Peacefulness | vulnerability | {score} |
COUNTRY | GPI Overall Score |
Puana qada pevçûnên berdewam a Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict |
CON | Peacefulness | hazard | {score} |
COUNTRY | GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict |
Senifandina OECD States of FragilityIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class |
CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {class} |
COUNTRY | OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts |
Rewşa World Bank ya lawaz û ji pevçûnê bandorbûyîIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status |
CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {bool} |
COUNTRY | |
Deng û berpirsiyarî (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
Aramiya siyasî û nebûna tundiyê (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
Bandorkariya hikûmetê (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
Kontrolkirina gendeliyê (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
Îndeksa Têgihîştina Gendeliyê (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Puana azadiya çapemeniyê (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Serweriya qanûnê (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
Mafên milkiyetê û rêveberiya li ser bingeha qaîdeyan (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
Girtiyên bê biryara dadgehê, para nifûsa girtîgehanIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
Belavbûna bertîlê di nav pargîdaniyan deIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
Kalîteya rêziknameyan (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
Nirxandina giştî ya CPIA (îndeksa dabeşkirina çavkaniyên IDA)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
CPIA birêvebirina sektora giştî û sazîIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
CPIA şefafî, berpirsiyarî û gendelî di sektora giştî deIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
Kêrhatîbûna komkirina dahatê (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
Dûrketina pêkanîna budceyê ji budceya pejirandîIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
Puana giştî ya Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
Temambûna tomarkirina zayînêIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
Sal ji serjimêriya nifûsê ya dawî veIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census |
GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
Puana jîngeha karsaziyê (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall |
GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Nifûsa bajarî ya bi gihîştina hêsan a veguhestina giştîIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | % |
CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY | SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Saziyên perwerdeyê yên ji karesatan zirar dîtî an wêranbûyîIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-3 |
Stûna tedbîrên qanûnî ya ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
Stûna tedbîrên rêxistinî ya ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
Qanûnên parastina daneyan û nepeniyê di meriyetê deIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
Pêşketina hikûmeta elektronîkIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Stratejiya neteweyî ya DRR li gorî Sendai FrameworkIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
Hikûmetên herêmî yên bi stratejiyên DRR li gorî stratejiya neteweyîIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
Amadebûna parastina civakî ya bersivdêrî şokanIND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection |
CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY |
05Metirsî
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| Malbat | Qad | Metirsî | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organised and collective violence | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence | 5 |
| Conflict-induced harm | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial | 4 |
| Humanitarian crises | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption | 6 |
| Crowd and collective behaviour | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster | 3 |
| Economic shocks and governance failure | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty | 8 |
| Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … | 15 |
| Governance and institutional failure | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … | 18 |
| Financial-system fragility | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … | 12 |
| Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … | 12 |
| Labour and technology transition | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock | 7 |
| Population structure and movement | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … | 12 |
| Social cohesion and atrocity risk | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … | 9 |
| Organised crime and illicit economies | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … | 12 |
| Cultural heritage loss | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation | 7 |
06Pêşdîtin
How the outlooks for this series are verified
FIG 5 · Explainer: how forecasts are verified
–
runs in your browser
07Rêbaz
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
21 methods
Jeopolîtîk, pevçûn û ewlehiya mirovî
Interstate Conflict Risk · Civil Conflict Risk · Political Violence Risk · Displacement Risk · Humanitarian Access Risk · Geopolitical Sanctions Risk · Geoeconomic Fragmentation …
08Users
Who uses it
UN system and humanitarian organisations
Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Civil society and NGOs
Target programmes. Use open profiles. Contribute local evidence.
International financial institutions and development banks
Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.
Companies and supply chains
Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.
09Rapor
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
SR-02- Edition status
- plankirî
- Mijar
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
10Jêgirtin
Jêgirtin û ji nû ve bikaranîn
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Conflict, fragility and human security series (GRX-SER-SR-02), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-02/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000075.
- Series key
grix:SER.SR-02:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Rewş
Rêbaz, avahî û pênaseyên The Global Risks Index pêşnivîseke xebatê ya amadekar in (2026), ji bo nirxandin û şîroveyê tên belavkirin, ne ji bo bicîhanînê. Heta ku çapek ji birrîneke delîlan a birêvebirî neyê weşandin, tu nirx xuya nabe; piştre nirx navber, çîn, çavkanî û rêya xwe ya rastkirinê bi xwe re tînin. Simulator rêbazên weşandî li ser hejmarên ku tu hildibijêrî dixebitînin û qet nirxeke NXS-GRX nîşan nadin.
NXS-GRX çi nîne
NXS-GRX agahiya lêkolîn û analîza xetereyê ye. Ew ne nirxandina krediyê an ESG ye û tu pîvaneke pileyan bi kar nayîne, ne pîvana referansê ya amûrên darayî ye, ne statîstîkên fermî ye, ne hişyariya awarte an dabeşkirina fermî ye, û ne şîret e. Divê ji bo nirxandina kesên xwezayî neyê bikaranîn. Çînên xetereyê bendên li ser pîvaneke weşandî ne, qet ne rêzkirina welatan an mirovan in.
Sazî û çavkanî
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Her nirx navê çavkaniyên xwe bi xwe re tîne, ku lîsansên xwe diparêzin. Navên derveyî tenê ji bo hevxebitînê tên gotin. Nivîsên ku Nexus nivîsandine dema weşanê ji bo CC BY 4.0 tên armanckirin.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.