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I-Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · SR-02 · Strategic systems series

Conflict, fragility and human security

Conflict risk and escalation, fragility, organised violence, civilian harm and the conflict–climate–food–displacement nexus.

Construction Indicators Outlook
Page GRX-SER-SR-02Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports SR-02 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
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1

Conflict risk

Izinkomba

140

5 index domains

Hazard families

14

Society, conflict and economy

Izindlela

21

Geopolitics, conflict and human security

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
domain indices
140
indicators in scope
1
hazard domains
5
client groups

01Ububanzi

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Where is conflict likely to start or escalate?
  2. Which fragile contexts are most exposed to compound shocks?
  3. How does conflict propagate into food insecurity and displacement?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Conflict, fragility and human security index is built

Graph5 nodes
Graph
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02Series index
03Readings

100%
List
  1. Conflict risk

    Domain index · IDX · CON
    Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
  2. Conflict, fragility and human security index

    Series index · SERIES · SR-02
    Conflict risk and escalation, fragility, organised violence, civilian harm and the conflict–climate–food–displacement nexus.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Izinkomba

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · SR-02 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Conflict, fragility and human security index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
I-Index Value Change Change % 90% interval Class · probability Trend Range
Conflict riskNXS-GRX · CON – – – – –

Domains read: Conflict and security, Governance and institutions, Demography and mobility, Food systems, Social and human development.

04Izinkomba

140 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
DEM · 24FOO · 23SOC · 22GOV · 20CON · 19
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicator Domain Sub-domain Component Unit Amazinga Crosswalks
Food price inflationIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation MAC Prices and inflation vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT CP
Unemployment rateIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate MAC Labour market vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT
LIC-DSF composite indicator score (published, reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Household debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Account ownership, adultsIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Personal remittances received, share of GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO Ezohwebo exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Food imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Seaborne trade exposed to maritime chokepointsIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Economic readiness for adaptation investmentIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Governance readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Social readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
Frequency of agricultural drought stressIND.HAZ.drought.agricultural_stress_frequency HAZ Isomiso hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID INFORM ASI
Seasonal peak ozone exposureIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure ENV Air quality hazard [ppb] COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Degraded land, share of land areaIND.ENV.land.land_degradation.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID SDG 15.3.1
Fish stocks within biologically sustainable levelsIND.ENV.ocean.sustainable_fish_stocks.share ENV Ocean vulnerability % GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY SDG 14.4.1
Crop production value dependent on animal pollination, shareIND.ENV.nature_dependence.pollinator_dependent_crops.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Level of water stressIND.WAT.stress.water_stress WAT Water stress hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS
Dependency ratio on external renewable waterIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Transboundary basin area with operational cooperationIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
Population with catastrophic out-of-pocket health spendingIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS
Stunting among children under fiveIND.HLT.nutrition.stunting HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025
Wasting among children under fiveIND.HLT.nutrition.wasting HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026
Anaemia among women of reproductive ageIND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043
Prevalence of undernourishmentIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS
Number of people undernourishedIND.FOO.availability.people_undernourished FOO Availability vulnerability {persons} COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 210011
Average dietary energy supply adequacyIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21010
Per capita food supply variabilityIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability FOO Availability vulnerability kcal/d/{person} COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21031
Cereal import dependency ratioIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Moderate or severe food insecurity (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS
Severe food insecurity (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS
Cost of a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost FOO Access and affordability vulnerability [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_PPP
Population unable to afford a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_headcount
Population in IPC Phase 3 or aboveIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population FOO Acute food insecurity impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 IPC Phase 3+
Share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or aboveIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share FOO Acute food insecurity impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 IPC Phase 3+
IPC Phase 3 or above, share of total populationIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_total FOO Acute food insecurity impact % COUNTRY
Presence of population in IPC Phase 5IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence FOO Acute food insecurity impact {bool} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 IPC Phase 5
Indicator of food price anomalies (food CPI)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly FOO Food prices hazard 1 COUNTRY SDG 2.c.1
Months with abnormally high food pricesIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months FOO Food prices hazard % COUNTRY
Food import bill, share of merchandise exportsIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, share of GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Employment in agriculture, share of total employmentIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
Cereal yieldIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability kg/har COUNTRY WB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG
Cereal yield variability (15-year)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Agricultural water withdrawal, share of totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS
Cropland, share of land areaIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share FOO Agricultural production and dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS
Vegetation Health Index on croplandIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index FOO Agricultural production and dependence hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID
Extreme poverty headcount, USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1
Poverty headcount, USD 4.20 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC
Poverty headcount, USD 8.30 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC
Poverty headcount at the national poverty lineIND.SOC.poverty.national_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1
Multidimensional poverty headcount (global MPI)IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB
Gini indexIND.SOC.inequality.gini SOC Inequality vulnerability {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.GINI
Income or consumption share of the bottom 40 percentIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_share SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20
Growth of consumption or income of the bottom 40 percentIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growth SOC Inequality adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1
Loss in human development due to inequalityIND.SOC.inequality.human_development_loss SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY HDR loss
Mean years of schoolingIND.SOC.education.mean_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR mys
Expected years of schoolingIND.SOC.education.expected_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR eys
Learning povertyIND.SOC.education.learning_poverty SOC Education vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1
Adult literacy rateIND.SOC.education.adult_literacy SOC Education adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1
Gender Inequality Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_index SOC Gender vulnerability {score} COUNTRY HDR gii
Female labour-force participation rateIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS
Seats held by women in national parliamentIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
Population covered by at least one social protection benefitIND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverage SOC Social protection coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot
Youth not in employment, education or trainingIND.SOC.protection.youth_neet SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT
Informal employment, share of total employmentIND.SOC.protection.informal_employment SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS
Children aged 5 to 17 in child labourIND.SOC.protection.child_labour SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS
Human Development Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.hdi SOC Intuthuko yabantu adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR hdi
Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.ihdi SOC Intuthuko yabantu adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR ihdi
Total populationIND.DEM.population.total DEM Inani labantu context {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI SP.POP.TOTL UN_WPP TPopulation1July
Population densityIND.DEM.population.density DEM Inani labantu context {persons}/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI EN.POP.DNST UN_WPP PopDensity
Population growthIND.DEM.population.growth DEM Inani labantu vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.GROW UN_WPP PopGrowthRate
Total fertility rateIND.DEM.population.fertility_rate DEM Inani labantu context {births}/{woman} COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.DYN.TFRT.IN UN_WPP TFR
Age dependency ratioIND.DEM.structure.age_dependency DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.DPND
Population aged 65 and over, share of totalIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
Population aged under 15, share of totalIND.DEM.structure.share_under15 DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS
Urban population, share of totalIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share DEM Urbanisation context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
Urban population growthIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
Urban population living in slumsIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Refugees by country of originIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR
Refugees by country of origin, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY SDG 10.7.4
Refugees hosted (country of asylum)IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted DEM Forced displacement exposure {persons} COUNTRY UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG
Refugees hosted, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted.p100k DEM Forced displacement exposure /10*5 COUNTRY
Asylum-seekers hosted, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.asylum_seekers_hosted.p100k DEM Forced displacement exposure /10*5 COUNTRY UNHCR ASY
Internally displaced people, conflict and violence (stock)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP
Internally displaced people, disasters (stock)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disaster DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC disaster_total_displacement
Internally displaced people, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY
New internal displacements, conflict and violenceIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict DEM Forced displacement impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV
New internal displacements, disastersIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disaster DEM Forced displacement impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC disaster_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWDS
New internal displacements, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY
Net migrationIND.DEM.migration.net_migration DEM Migration context {persons} COUNTRY WB_WDI SM.POP.NETM UN_WPP NetMigrations
Net migration rateIND.DEM.migration.net_migration_rate DEM Migration context /10*3 COUNTRY UN_WPP CNMR
International migrant stock, share of populationIND.DEM.migration.migrant_stock_share DEM Migration context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SM.POP.TOTL.ZS
Reported fatalities from organised political violenceIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED fatalities
Conflict fatalities per 100,000 populationIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k CON Organised violence hazard /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 SDG 16.1.2
Battle-related deaths (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths CON Organised violence hazard {persons} COUNTRY WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH
Political violence eventsIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED Political violence
Armed conflict eventsIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence
Geographic diffusion of conflictIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion CON Organised violence exposure % COUNTRY ACLED Diffusion
Fragmentation of armed actorsIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY ACLED Fragmentation
Intentional homicide rateIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate CON Organised violence hazard /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1
Military expenditure, share of GDPIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
Armed forces personnel, share of labour forceIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS
Events targeting civiliansIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events CON Civilian harm hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians
Civilian fatalities from targeted violence, per 100,000 populationIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k CON Civilian harm impact /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1 ACLED Danger
Attacks on health careIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care CON Civilian harm impact 1 COUNTRY
Casualties from landmines and explosive remnants of warIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties CON Civilian harm impact {persons} COUNTRY
Riots and violent demonstrationsIND.CON.peace.riot_events CON Peacefulness hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ACLED Riots
Global Peace Index overall score (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score CON Peacefulness vulnerability {score} COUNTRY GPI Overall Score
Global Peace Index ongoing conflict domain score (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict CON Peacefulness hazard {score} COUNTRY GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict
OECD States of Fragility classificationIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class CON Fragility vulnerability {class} COUNTRY OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts
World Bank fragile and conflict-affected situation statusIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status CON Fragility vulnerability {bool} COUNTRY
Voice and accountability (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Political stability and absence of violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Government effectiveness (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Control of corruption (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Press freedom score (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Rule of law (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Property rights and rule-based governance (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Unsentenced detainees, share of prison populationIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Bribery incidence among firmsIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Regulatory quality (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
CPIA overall rating (IDA resource allocation index)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA public-sector management and institutionsIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA transparency, accountability and corruption in the public sectorIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Efficiency of revenue mobilisation (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Deviation of budget execution from the approved budgetIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Statistical Performance Indicators overall scoreIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Completeness of birth registrationIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Years since the last population censusIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Business environment score (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Urban population with convenient access to public transportIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Educational facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI organisational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
National DRR strategy aligned with the Sendai FrameworkIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Local governments with DRR strategies aligned to the national strategyIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
Shock-responsive social protection readinessIND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection CRS Response capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05Izingozi

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Umphakathi130HAZARDS
1 hazard domains (inner ring) and 14 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Family Domain Izingozi Count
Organised and collective violence Society, conflict and economy Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm Society, conflict and economy Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises Society, conflict and economy Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour Society, conflict and economy Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure Society, conflict and economy Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons Society, conflict and economy Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure Society, conflict and economy Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility Society, conflict and economy Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks Society, conflict and economy Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition Society, conflict and economy Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement Society, conflict and economy Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk Society, conflict and economy Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies Society, conflict and economy Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss Society, conflict and economy Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06Outlook

How the outlooks for this series are verified

FIG 5 · Explainer: how forecasts are verified
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1.4
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runs in your browser

Explainer: 3,000 synthetic forecasts and outcomes from your settings, scored the way every Outlook model version is scored: reliability diagram, Brier score, skill against climatology and ROC area.
07Izindlela

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

21 methods

Geopolitics, conflict and human security

Interstate Conflict Risk · Civil Conflict Risk · Political Violence Risk · Displacement Risk · Humanitarian Access Risk · Geopolitical Sanctions Risk · Geoeconomic Fragmentation …

08Users

Who uses it

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Civil society and NGOs

Target programmes. Use open profiles. Contribute local evidence.

International financial institutions and development banks

Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

09Imibiko

Nexus Reports

Edition code
SR-02
Edition status
planned
Isihloko
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

10Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Conflict, fragility and human security series (GRX-SER-SR-02), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-02/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000075.
Series key
grix:SER.SR-02:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Izimpawu zamazwe Lonke uchungechunge

Isimo

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

Lokho i-NXS-GRX engeyikho

I-NXS-GRX iwulwazi locwaningo nokuhlaziywa kobungozi. Akusona isilinganiso sesikweletu noma se-ESG futhi ayisebenzisi sikali sokulinganisa, akusona isilinganiso samathuluzi ezimali, akuzona izibalo ezisemthethweni, akusona isixwayiso esiphuthumayo noma ukuhlukaniswa okusemthethweni, futhi akusona iseluleko. Akumele isetshenziselwe ukuhlola abantu ngabanye. Izigaba zobungozi ziyimigoqo esikalini esishicilelwe, akukaze kube ukulandelana kwamazwe noma kwabantu.

Izikhungo nemithombo

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.