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Il Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · SR-02 · Strategic systems series

Conflitti, fragilità e sicurezza umana

Rischio di conflitto ed escalation, fragilità, violenza organizzata, danni ai civili e il nesso conflitto–clima–cibo–sfollamento.

Construction Indicators Outlook
Page GRX-SER-SR-02Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports SR-02 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indici di dominio

1

Rischio di conflitto

Indicatori

140

5 index domains

Hazard families

14

Società, conflitti ed economia

Metodi

21

Geopolitica, conflitto e sicurezza umana

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
indici di dominio
140
indicators in scope
1
domini di pericolo
5
client groups

01Ambito

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Where is conflict likely to start or escalate?
  2. Which fragile contexts are most exposed to compound shocks?
  3. How does conflict propagate into food insecurity and displacement?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Conflict, fragility and human security index is built

Graph5 nodes
Grafo
01Indici di dominio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Indice
  1. Rischio di conflitto

    Domain index · IDX · CON
    Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
  2. Conflict, fragility and human security index

    Series index · SERIES · SR-02
    Rischio di conflitto ed escalation, fragilità, violenza organizzata, danni ai civili e il nesso conflitto–clima–cibo–sfollamento.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Non eseguitoIn corsoCompletato
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indici

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · SR-02 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Conflict, fragility and human security index, world
–
I valori sono pubblicati con l'edizione; qui compaiono intervallo, classe e variazione.
Indice Valore Variazione Variazione % Intervallo al 90% Classe · probabilità Tendenza Intervallo
Rischio di conflittoNXS-GRX · CON – – – – –

Domains read: Conflict and security, Governance and institutions, Demography and mobility, Food systems, Social and human development.

04Indicatori

140 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
DEM · 24FOO · 23SOC · 22GOV · 20CON · 19
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicatore Dominio Sub-domain Componente Unità Livelli Crosswalks
Inflazione dei prezzi alimentariIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation MAC Prices and inflation vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT CP
Tasso di disoccupazioneIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate MAC Labour market vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT
Punteggio dell'indicatore composito LIC-DSF (pubblicato, riferimento)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Debito delle famiglie, quota del PILIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Titolarità di un conto, adultiIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Rimesse personali ricevute, quota del PILIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO Commercio exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Importazioni alimentari, quota delle importazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Commercio marittimo esposto ai colli di bottiglia marittimiIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Prontezza economica agli investimenti per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Prontezza della governance per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Prontezza sociale per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
Frequenza dello stress da siccità agricolaIND.HAZ.drought.agricultural_stress_frequency HAZ Siccità hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID INFORM ASI
Esposizione stagionale ai picchi di ozonoIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure ENV Qualità dell'aria hazard [ppb] COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Terreni degradati, quota della superficie terrestreIND.ENV.land.land_degradation.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID SDG 15.3.1
Stock ittici entro livelli biologicamente sostenibiliIND.ENV.ocean.sustainable_fish_stocks.share ENV Ocean vulnerability % GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY SDG 14.4.1
Valore della produzione agricola dipendente dall'impollinazione animale, quotaIND.ENV.nature_dependence.pollinator_dependent_crops.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Livello di stress idricoIND.WAT.stress.water_stress WAT Stress idrico hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS
Indice di dipendenza da acque rinnovabili esterneIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Superficie di bacini transfrontalieri con cooperazione operativaIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
Popolazione con spese sanitarie catastrofiche a proprio caricoIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS
Ritardo della crescita nei bambini sotto i cinque anniIND.HLT.nutrition.stunting HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025
Deperimento nei bambini sotto i cinque anniIND.HLT.nutrition.wasting HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026
Anemia nelle donne in età riproduttivaIND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043
Prevalenza della denutrizioneIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS
Numero di persone denutriteIND.FOO.availability.people_undernourished FOO Availability vulnerability {persons} COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 210011
Adeguatezza media dell'apporto energetico alimentareIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21010
Variabilità pro capite della disponibilità alimentareIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability FOO Availability vulnerability kcal/d/{person} COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21031
Indice di dipendenza dalle importazioni di cerealiIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Insicurezza alimentare moderata o grave (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS
Insicurezza alimentare grave (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS
Costo di una dieta sanaIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost FOO Access and affordability vulnerability [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_PPP
Popolazione che non può permettersi una dieta sanaIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_headcount
Popolazione in fase IPC 3 o superioreIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population FOO Acute food insecurity impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 IPC Phase 3+
Quota della popolazione analizzata in fase IPC 3 o superioreIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share FOO Acute food insecurity impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 IPC Phase 3+
Fase IPC 3 o superiore, quota della popolazione totaleIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_total FOO Acute food insecurity impact % COUNTRY
Presenza di popolazione in fase IPC 5IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence FOO Acute food insecurity impact {bool} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 IPC Phase 5
Indicatore delle anomalie dei prezzi alimentari (IPC alimentare)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly FOO Food prices hazard 1 COUNTRY SDG 2.c.1
Mesi con prezzi alimentari anormalmente elevatiIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months FOO Food prices hazard % COUNTRY
Spesa per importazioni alimentari, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Valore aggiunto di agricoltura, silvicoltura e pesca, quota del PILIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Occupazione in agricoltura, quota dell'occupazione totaleIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
Resa dei cerealiIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability kg/har COUNTRY WB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG
Variabilità della resa dei cereali (15 anni)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Prelievi idrici agricoli, quota del totaleIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS
Terreni coltivati, quota della superficie terrestreIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share FOO Agricultural production and dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS
Vegetation Health Index sui terreni coltivatiIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index FOO Agricultural production and dependence hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID
Incidenza della povertà estrema, USD 3.00 al giorno (PPA 2021)IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1
Incidenza della povertà, USD 4.20 al giorno (PPA 2021)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC
Incidenza della povertà, USD 8.30 al giorno (PPA 2021)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC
Incidenza della povertà rispetto alla soglia di povertà nazionaleIND.SOC.poverty.national_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1
Incidenza della povertà multidimensionale (MPI globale)IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB
Indice di GiniIND.SOC.inequality.gini SOC Inequality vulnerability {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.GINI
Quota di reddito o consumo del 40 percento più poveroIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_share SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20
Crescita del consumo o del reddito del 40 percento più poveroIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growth SOC Inequality adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1
Perdita di sviluppo umano dovuta alla disuguaglianzaIND.SOC.inequality.human_development_loss SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY HDR loss
Anni medi di istruzioneIND.SOC.education.mean_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR mys
Anni di istruzione attesiIND.SOC.education.expected_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR eys
Povertà di apprendimentoIND.SOC.education.learning_poverty SOC Education vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1
Tasso di alfabetizzazione degli adultiIND.SOC.education.adult_literacy SOC Education adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1
Indice di disuguaglianza di genere (UNDP)IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_index SOC Gender vulnerability {score} COUNTRY HDR gii
Tasso di partecipazione femminile alla forza lavoroIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS
Seggi occupati da donne nel parlamento nazionaleIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
Popolazione coperta da almeno una prestazione di protezione socialeIND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverage SOC Social protection coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot
Giovani che non studiano, non lavorano e non seguono una formazioneIND.SOC.protection.youth_neet SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT
Occupazione informale, quota dell'occupazione totaleIND.SOC.protection.informal_employment SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS
Bambini tra 5 e 17 anni coinvolti nel lavoro minorileIND.SOC.protection.child_labour SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS
Indice di sviluppo umano (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.hdi SOC Sviluppo umano adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR hdi
Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.ihdi SOC Sviluppo umano adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR ihdi
Popolazione totaleIND.DEM.population.total DEM Popolazione context {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI SP.POP.TOTL UN_WPP TPopulation1July
Densità di popolazioneIND.DEM.population.density DEM Popolazione context {persons}/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI EN.POP.DNST UN_WPP PopDensity
Crescita della popolazioneIND.DEM.population.growth DEM Popolazione vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.GROW UN_WPP PopGrowthRate
Tasso di fecondità totaleIND.DEM.population.fertility_rate DEM Popolazione context {births}/{woman} COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.DYN.TFRT.IN UN_WPP TFR
Indice di dipendenza per etàIND.DEM.structure.age_dependency DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.DPND
Popolazione di 65 anni e oltre, quota del totaleIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
Popolazione sotto i 15 anni, quota del totaleIND.DEM.structure.share_under15 DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS
Popolazione urbana, quota del totaleIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share DEM Urbanisation context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
Crescita della popolazione urbanaIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
Popolazione urbana che vive in baraccopoliIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Rifugiati per paese di origineIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR
Rifugiati per paese di origine, per 100,000 abitantiIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY SDG 10.7.4
Rifugiati accolti (paese d'asilo)IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted DEM Forced displacement exposure {persons} COUNTRY UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG
Rifugiati accolti, per 100,000 abitantiIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted.p100k DEM Forced displacement exposure /10*5 COUNTRY
Richiedenti asilo accolti, per 100,000 abitantiIND.DEM.displacement.asylum_seekers_hosted.p100k DEM Forced displacement exposure /10*5 COUNTRY UNHCR ASY
Sfollati interni, conflitti e violenza (stock)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP
Sfollati interni, disastri (stock)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disaster DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC disaster_total_displacement
Sfollati interni, per 100,000 abitantiIND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY
Nuovi sfollamenti interni, conflitti e violenzaIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict DEM Forced displacement impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV
Nuovi sfollamenti interni, disastriIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disaster DEM Forced displacement impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC disaster_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWDS
Nuovi sfollamenti interni, per 100,000 abitantiIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY
Migrazione nettaIND.DEM.migration.net_migration DEM Migration context {persons} COUNTRY WB_WDI SM.POP.NETM UN_WPP NetMigrations
Tasso di migrazione nettaIND.DEM.migration.net_migration_rate DEM Migration context /10*3 COUNTRY UN_WPP CNMR
Stock di migranti internazionali, quota della popolazioneIND.DEM.migration.migrant_stock_share DEM Migration context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SM.POP.TOTL.ZS
Vittime segnalate della violenza politica organizzataIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED fatalities
Vittime dei conflitti per 100,000 abitantiIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k CON Organised violence hazard /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 SDG 16.1.2
Morti in combattimento (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths CON Organised violence hazard {persons} COUNTRY WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH
Eventi di violenza politicaIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED Political violence
Eventi di conflitto armatoIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence
Diffusione geografica del conflittoIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion CON Organised violence exposure % COUNTRY ACLED Diffusion
Frammentazione degli attori armatiIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY ACLED Fragmentation
Tasso di omicidi volontariIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate CON Organised violence hazard /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1
Spesa militare, quota del PILIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
Personale delle forze armate, quota della forza lavoroIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS
Eventi rivolti contro i civiliIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events CON Civilian harm hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians
Vittime civili di violenza mirata, per 100,000 abitantiIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k CON Civilian harm impact /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1 ACLED Danger
Attacchi contro l'assistenza sanitariaIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care CON Civilian harm impact 1 COUNTRY
Vittime di mine terrestri e residuati bellici esplosiviIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties CON Civilian harm impact {persons} COUNTRY
Rivolte e manifestazioni violenteIND.CON.peace.riot_events CON Peacefulness hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ACLED Riots
Punteggio complessivo del Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score CON Peacefulness vulnerability {score} COUNTRY GPI Overall Score
Punteggio del dominio conflitti in corso del Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict CON Peacefulness hazard {score} COUNTRY GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict
Classificazione OCSE degli Stati di fragilitàIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class CON Fragility vulnerability {class} COUNTRY OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts
Status di situazione fragile e colpita da conflitti della Banca mondialeIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status CON Fragility vulnerability {bool} COUNTRY
Voce e responsabilità (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Stabilità politica e assenza di violenza (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Efficacia del governo (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Controllo della corruzione (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Punteggio della libertà di stampa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Stato di diritto (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Diritti di proprietà e governance basata su regole (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Detenuti senza condanna, quota della popolazione carcerariaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Incidenza della corruzione tra le impreseIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Qualità della regolamentazione (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
Valutazione complessiva CPIA (indice di allocazione delle risorse IDA)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA gestione e istituzioni del settore pubblicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA trasparenza, responsabilità e corruzione nel settore pubblicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Efficienza nella mobilitazione delle entrate (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Scostamento dell'esecuzione del bilancio dal bilancio approvatoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Punteggio complessivo degli Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Completezza della registrazione delle nasciteIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Anni trascorsi dall'ultimo censimento della popolazioneIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Punteggio del contesto imprenditoriale (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Popolazione urbana con comodo accesso al trasporto pubblicoIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Strutture scolastiche danneggiate o distrutte da disastriIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure legaliIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure organizzativeIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Legislazione sulla protezione dei dati e sulla privacy in vigoreIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Sviluppo dell'e-governmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Strategia nazionale di riduzione del rischio di disastri allineata al Quadro di riferimento di Sendai per la riduzione del rischio di disastriIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Governi locali con strategie di riduzione del rischio di disastri allineate alla strategia nazionaleIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
Prontezza della protezione sociale reattiva agli shockIND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection CRS Response capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05Pericoli

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Società130HAZARDS
1 hazard domains (inner ring) and 14 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Famiglia Dominio Pericoli Count
Organised and collective violence Società, conflitti ed economia Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm Società, conflitti ed economia Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises Società, conflitti ed economia Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour Società, conflitti ed economia Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure Società, conflitti ed economia Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons Società, conflitti ed economia Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure Società, conflitti ed economia Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility Società, conflitti ed economia Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks Società, conflitti ed economia Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition Società, conflitti ed economia Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement Società, conflitti ed economia Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk Società, conflitti ed economia Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies Società, conflitti ed economia Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss Società, conflitti ed economia Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06Previsione

How the outlooks for this series are verified

FIG 5 · Explainer: how forecasts are verified
0.15
1.4
1
0
–
funziona nel vostro browser

Explainer: 3,000 synthetic forecasts and outcomes from your settings, scored the way every Outlook model version is scored: reliability diagram, Brier score, skill against climatology and ROC area.
07Metodi

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

21 methods

Geopolitica, conflitto e sicurezza umana

Interstate Conflict Risk · Civil Conflict Risk · Political Violence Risk · Displacement Risk · Humanitarian Access Risk · Geopolitical Sanctions Risk · Geoeconomic Fragmentation …

08Users

Who uses it

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Società civile e ONG

Target programmes. Use open profiles. Contribute local evidence.

International financial institutions and development banks

Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

09Rapporti

Nexus Reports

Edition code
SR-02
Edition status
prevista
Oggetto
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

10Cita

Cita e riutilizza

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Conflict, fragility and human security series (GRX-SER-SR-02), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-02/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000075.
Series key
grix:SER.SR-02:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Profili dei paesi Tutte le serie

Stato

La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.

Che cosa non è NXS-GRX

NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.

Istituzioni e fonti

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.