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Il Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-CYB · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

Indice di rischio cyber

Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-CYBEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

geometric

equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Incertezza

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

Struttura

3 components

12 leaf indicators

Copertura

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 40%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
12
leaf indicators
3
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
15
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Combines hazard, exposure and capability in the INFORM pattern so that a highly digital, well-defended economy and a lightly digital, undefended one are not confused.

computation
How Cyber risk is computed
Graph18 nodes
Grafo
01Indicatori
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilastro
05Composito
100%
Indice
  1. Incidenti informatici significativi per milione di abitanti
    Indicator · IND · /10*6/a
    Number of cyber incidents in the year that a national CERT or regulator classifies as significant (material service disruption, data compromise or financial loss), per million population.
  2. Incidenti informatici che interrompono servizi critici
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Number of cyber incidents in the year that disrupted an essential service (energy, water, health, transport, finance, digital infrastructure), counted from mandatory incident reports and verified public disclosure.
  3. Persone che utilizzano Internet
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of individuals who used the Internet from any location and device in the last three months.
  4. Valore aggiunto dei servizi TIC, quota del PIL
    Indicator · IND · %
    Gross value added of telecommunications, computer programming and information services (ISIC Rev.4 divisions 61–63) as a percentage of GDP.
  5. Sviluppo dell'e-government
    Indicator · IND · score
    UN E-Government Development Index (0–1), combining online-service provision, telecommunication infrastructure and human capital, carried as an external source series.
  6. ITU GCI pilastro delle misure legali
    Indicator · IND · score
    ITU GCI 2024 pillar score (0–20) for laws and regulations on cybercrime, cybersecurity, data protection and critical-infrastructure protection.
  7. ITU GCI pilastro delle misure tecniche
    Indicator · IND · score
    ITU GCI 2024 pillar score (0–20) for national and sectoral incident response teams, technical frameworks and protection of critical systems.
  8. ITU GCI pilastro delle misure organizzative
    Indicator · IND · score
    ITU GCI 2024 pillar score (0–20) for national strategy, a responsible agency, and metrics for cybersecurity governance.
  9. ITU GCI pilastro delle misure di sviluppo delle capacità
    Indicator · IND · score
    ITU GCI 2024 pillar score (0–20) for awareness campaigns, curricula, professional training and research and industry development.
  10. ITU GCI pilastro delle misure di cooperazione
    Indicator · IND · score
    ITU GCI 2024 pillar score (0–20) for bilateral, multilateral and public-private cooperation agreements and information-sharing arrangements.
  11. Squadra nazionale di risposta agli incidenti informatici operativa
    Indicator · IND · yes or no
    Whether the economy has a government-mandated national computer emergency or security incident response team that is operational and reachable by constituents (1 yes, 0 no).
  12. Legislazione sulla protezione dei dati e sulla privacy in vigore
    Indicator · IND · yes or no
    Whether a general data protection and privacy law is in force in the economy (1 yes, 0 no; draft legislation counts as 0).
  13. Cyber incident pressure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of the significant-incident rate and critical-service incidents.
  14. Digital dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of internet use, ICT services share of GDP and e-government development, read as exposure.
  15. Cyber capability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of the five ITU GCI pillar scores, the existence of a national CERT and data-protection law in force.
  16. Indice di rischio cyber
    Domain index · IDX · geometric
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  17. Fragilità macrofinanziaria e strutturale
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  18. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Non eseguitoIn corsoCompletato
FIG 2. 12 indicators, 3 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate cyber risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
25
1
–
funziona nel vostro browser
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Metodo

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
INFORM 0–10 rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
40% of weight
Weighting
equal
Aggregation
geometric
Scale
0 to 10
Incertezza
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
INFORM risk algebra (hazard, exposure, lack of coping capacity); OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); ITU GCI 2024 (capability input)
Molto bassoda 0.0 a < 2.0
Bassoda 2.0 a < 3.5
Medioda 3.5 a < 5.0
Altoda 5.0 a < 6.5
Molto altoda 6.5 a 10.0
04Components

3 components, 12 indicators

Cyber incident pressure sub-index w 1

Composite of the significant-incident rate and critical-service incidents.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Incidenti informatici significativi per milione di abitantiIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate/10*6/aClass Dnational-cert-annual-reports, enisa-threat-landscape, eu-nis2-incident-reporting, commercial-threat-telemetry-licensed50.0%
Incidenti informatici che interrompono servizi criticiIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents1Class Eeu-nis2-incident-reporting, national-cert-annual-reports, verified-public-disclosures50.0%

Digital dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of internet use, ICT services share of GDP and e-government development, read as exposure.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Persone che utilizzano InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users%Class Bitu-datahub, wb-wdi, national-ict-household-surveys33.3%
Valore aggiunto dei servizi TIC, quota del PILIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp%Class Bun-national-accounts-main-aggregates, oecd-stan, unctad-digital-economy33.3%
Sviluppo dell'e-governmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development{score}Class Cun-desa-egovernment-survey33.3%

Cyber capability sub-index w 1

Composite of the five ITU GCI pillar scores, the existence of a national CERT and data-protection law in force.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure legaliIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal{score}Class Citu-gci-202416.7%
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure tecnicheIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical{score}Class Citu-gci-202416.7%
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure organizzativeIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational{score}Class Citu-gci-202416.7%
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure di sviluppo delle capacitàIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development{score}Class Citu-gci-202416.7%
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure di cooperazioneIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation{score}Class Citu-gci-202416.7%
Squadra nazionale di risposta agli incidenti informatici operativaIND.CYB.capability.national_cert{bool}Class Bitu-national-cirt-list, first-member-directory, itu-gci-20248.3%
Legislazione sulla protezione dei dati e sulla privacy in vigoreIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law{bool}Class Bunctad-global-cyberlaw-tracker, national-legal-gazettes8.3%
05Dominio

Cyber e digitale

Cyber-security commitment and capability, digital dependence and incident exposure.

Sub-domainIndicatori
Cyber capability9
Incidents2
Digital dependence2

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): ITU GCI 2024; Basel operational-risk event types.

06Indicatori

All 13 cyber and digital indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CYB · 13
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndicatoreDominioSub-domainComponenteUnitàLivelliCrosswalks
Punteggio dell'ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_scoreCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Overall score
Livello dell'ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_tierCYBCyber capabilityvulnerability{class}COUNTRYITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure legaliIND.CYB.capability.gci_legalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure tecnicheIND.CYB.capability.gci_technicalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure organizzativeIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizationalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure di sviluppo delle capacitàIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_developmentCYBCyber capabilityadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure di cooperazioneIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperationCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Squadra nazionale di risposta agli incidenti informatici operativaIND.CYB.capability.national_certCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{bool}COUNTRYITU_GCI Technical Measures
Legislazione sulla protezione dei dati e sulla privacy in vigoreIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_lawCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{bool}COUNTRYITU_GCI Legal Measures
Incidenti informatici significativi per milione di abitantiIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rateCYBIncidentshazard/10*6/aCOUNTRY
Incidenti informatici che interrompono servizi criticiIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidentsCYBIncidentsimpact1COUNTRY
Valore aggiunto dei servizi TIC, quota del PILIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdpCYBDigital dependenceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Sviluppo dell'e-governmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_developmentCYBDigital dependenceexposure{score}COUNTRY
07Quotazione

Cyber risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · CYB · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Cyber risk index, world
–
I valori sono pubblicati con l'edizione; qui compaiono intervallo, classe e variazione.
Edizione precedente
–
Range since 2016
–
Composito accoppiato
–
Punteggio di accoppiamento S
–
Pulse, ultima settimana
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Metodo
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Estrazioni
1,000
Cyber risk index, world, by edition

Nessun valore ancora pubblicato. La prima edizione traccia qui lo storico con la banda dell'intervallo e i limiti di classe.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Africa54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
Americhe35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
Asia48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
Europa44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
Oceania14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
Nessuna variazione per ora. Dalla seconda edizione in poi, le variazioni rispetto all’edizione precedente sono elencate qui, insieme agli indicatori che le hanno determinate.
08Valori

Country values

FIG 5 · Cyber risk index: countries (values when released)
Caricamento della mappa
AndorraAntigua e BarbudaBahreinBarbadosComoreCapo VerdeDominicaMicronesia (Stati Federati di)GrenadaKiribatiSaint Kitts e NevisSanta LuciaLiechtensteinMonacoMaldiveIsole MarshallMaltaMauritiusNauruPalauSingaporeSan MarinoSão Tomé e PríncipeSeychellesTongaTuvaluSanta SedeSaint Vincent e GrenadineSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tile
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cyb/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Chiave di osservazione
nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Serie

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-13Global Cyber and digitalCyber capability and threat exposure, digital dependency, connectivity resilience and the cyber-physical channels into essential services. SR-10Digital public infrastructureIdentity, payments and data-exchange infrastructure as public goods, and their concentration, cyber and continuity risk. SR-11Information integrity and social cohesionInformation disorder, polarisation, trust and cohesion as amplifiers of every other risk. XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps. XT-02Cyber and cyber-physical systemsThreats to operational technology, industrial control and cyber-physical systems across energy, water, health, ports and logistics. XT-03Telecommunications, open radio networks and edgeTelecom resilience, open and AI-native radio access networks, private wireless, edge compute and spectrum constraints. XT-05Quantum-relevant securityCryptographic resilience and the migration to post-quantum cryptography across public and financial systems. XT-09Sensors, IoT and industrial IoTConnected sensing and control across cities, utilities and industry: attack surface, data integrity and dependency. XT-11Digital identity and trustIdentity, authentication and trust infrastructure: exclusion, fraud, breach and concentration risk. XT-12Positioning, navigation and timingDependency of power, telecom, finance and transport on positioning and timing signals; jamming, spoofing and space weather. XT-14Software and supply-chain integrityOpen-source and commercial software dependencies, build integrity and provenance across critical systems. XT-16Advanced manufacturingAdvanced and additive manufacturing, industrial automation and their supply, cyber and labour risks. XT-17Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructureDistributed ledgers and decentralised physical infrastructure networks: operational, financial-stability and governance risk. XT-20Converging technologiesRisks that emerge where frontier technologies combine (AI with biotechnology, autonomy with cyber, compute with energy) and outrun single-technology governance.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
ITU_GCI7
WB_WDI2
SDG1
11In tutto il Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Cita

Cita e riutilizza

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Cyber risk index (GRX-IDX-CYB), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/cyber-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000116.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

Stato

La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.

Che cosa non è NXS-GRX

NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.

Istituzioni e fonti

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.