The Global Risks Index · XT-20 · Exponential technology series
Tecnologie convergenti
Rischi che emergono dove le tecnologie di frontiera si combinano (IA con biotecnologia, autonomia con cyber, calcolo con energia) e superano la governance delle singole tecnologie.
Page GRX-SER-XT-20Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-20 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indici di dominio
4
Health security risk · Governance weakness · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.
Indicatori
102
4 index domains
Hazard families
20
Frontier and exponential technology · Systemic and compound events.
Metodi
77
Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Networks, dependency and systemic risk.
4
indici di dominio
102
indicators in scope
2
domini di pericolo
4
client groups
01Ambito
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Which technology combinations create new hazard classes?
- Where does convergence outrun governance?
- What early signals should be watched?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Converging technologies index is built
Graph8 nodes
Grafo
01Indici di dominio
02Series index
03Readings
100%
Indice
-
Rischio per la sicurezza sanitariaDomain index · IDX · HLTINFORM-style aggregation, on 0 to 10, of epidemic and AMR hazard, disease burden and undernutrition against health-system and IHR capacity, each component oriented by its own polarity.
-
Debolezza della governanceDomain index · IDX · GOVWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
-
Rischio cyberDomain index · IDX · CYBIndex of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
-
Rischio di concentrazione tecnologicaDomain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
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Converging technologies indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-20Rischi che emergono dove le tecnologie di frontiera si combinano (IA con biotecnologia, autonomia con cyber, calcolo con energia) e superano la governance delle singole tecnologie.
-
Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Non eseguitoIn corsoCompletato
03Indici
Domain indices in this series
The Global Risks Index · XT-20 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Converging technologies index, world
–
I valori sono pubblicati con l'edizione; qui compaiono intervallo, classe e variazione.
| Indice | Valore | Variazione | Variazione % | Intervallo al 90% | Classe · probabilità | Tendenza | Intervallo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rischio per la sicurezza sanitariaNXS-GRX · HLT |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Debolezza della governanceNXS-GRX · GOV |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Rischio cyberNXS-GRX · CYB |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Rischio di concentrazione tecnologicaNXS-GRX · TEC |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Health, Governance and institutions.
04Indicatori
102 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicatore | Dominio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unità | Livelli | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Punteggio dell'indicatore composito LIC-DSF (pubblicato, riferimento)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator |
FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Prontezza economica agli investimenti per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
Prontezza della governance per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
Giorni di caldo umido pericoloso all'annoIND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days |
HAZ | Extreme heat | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501 |
Eventi di esposizione alle ondate di calore per personaIND.HAZ.heat.heatwave_person_days |
HAZ | Extreme heat | exposure | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
Popolazione esposta al caldo estremo, quotaIND.HAZ.heat.heat_population_exposed.share |
HAZ | Extreme heat | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
Esposizione al PM2.5, media ponderata per la popolazioneIND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure |
ENV | Qualità dell'aria | hazard | ug/m3 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD |
Popolazione esposta oltre il valore guida OMS per il PM2.5, quotaIND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share |
ENV | Qualità dell'aria | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS |
Esposizione stagionale ai picchi di ozonoIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure |
ENV | Qualità dell'aria | hazard | [ppb] |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Popolazione che utilizza acqua potabile gestita in modo sicuroIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD |
Popolazione che utilizza almeno acqua potabile di baseIND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS |
Popolazione che utilizza servizi igienico-sanitari gestiti in modo sicuroIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD |
Popolazione con strutture di base per il lavaggio delle maniIND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1 |
Indice di dipendenza da acque rinnovabili esterneIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Superficie di bacini transfrontalieri con cooperazione operativaIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.5.2 |
Tasso di mortalità sotto i cinque anniIND.HLT.burden.under5_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.MORT SDG 3.2.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000007 |
Tasso di mortalità neonataleIND.HLT.burden.neonatal_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.NMRT SDG 3.2.2 |
Rapporto di mortalità maternaIND.HLT.burden.maternal_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.MMRT SDG 3.1.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000026 |
Speranza di vita alla nascitaIND.HLT.burden.life_expectancy |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.DYN.LE00.IN WHO_GHO WHOSIS_000001 |
Mortalità prematura per le principali malattie non trasmissibiliIND.HLT.burden.ncd_premature_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS SDG 3.4.1 WHO_GHO NCDMORT3070 |
Incidenza della tubercolosiIND.HLT.burden.tb_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.TBS.INCD SDG 3.3.2 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000020 |
Incidenza della malariaIND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA |
Incidenza dell'HIVIND.HLT.burden.hiv_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.TL.P3 SDG 3.3.1 WHO_GHO SDGHIV WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.ZS |
Medici per 1,000 abitantiIND.HLT.system.physician_density |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.PHYS.ZS WHO_GHO HWF_0001 SDG 3.c.1 |
Infermieri e ostetriche per 1,000 abitantiIND.HLT.system.nurse_midwife_density |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.NUMW.P3 WHO_GHO HWF_0006 SDG 3.c.1 |
Posti letto ospedalieri per 1,000 abitantiIND.HLT.system.hospital_beds |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.BEDS.ZS WHO_GHO WHS6_102 |
Indice di copertura dei servizi UHCIND.HLT.system.uhc_service_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.1 WHO_GHO UHC_INDEX_REPORTED WB_WDI SH.UHC.SRVS.CV.XD |
Popolazione con spese sanitarie catastrofiche a proprio caricoIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS |
Spesa sanitaria a carico dei pazienti, quota della spesa sanitaria correnteIND.HLT.system.oop_share |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.XPD.OOPC.CH.ZS WHO_GHO GHED_OOPSCHE_SHA2011 |
Spesa sanitaria corrente, quota del PILIND.HLT.system.health_expenditure.gdp |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS |
Copertura vaccinale DTP3IND.HLT.system.dtp3_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO WHS4_100 WB_WDI SH.IMM.IDPT SDG 3.b.1 |
Copertura vaccinale con la seconda dose contro il morbilloIND.HLT.system.mcv2_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO MCV2 WB_WDI SH.IMM.MEA2 SDG 3.b.1 |
Parti assistiti da personale sanitario qualificatoIND.HLT.system.skilled_birth_attendance |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.BRTC.ZS SDG 3.1.2 |
Tempo di percorrenza fino alla struttura sanitaria più vicinaIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | min |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Punteggio delle capacità fondamentali RSI (SPAR)IND.HLT.security.spar_capacity |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.d.1 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2021 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2018 |
Capacità di laboratorio RSI (SPAR C4)IND.HLT.security.spar_laboratory |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C4 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C04 JEE D1 |
Capacità di sorveglianza RSI (SPAR C5)IND.HLT.security.spar_surveillance |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C5 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C05 JEE D2 |
Capacità di gestione delle emergenze sanitarie RSI (SPAR C7)IND.HLT.security.spar_emergency_management |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C7 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C07 JEE R1 |
Capacità di comunicazione del rischio RSI (SPAR C10)IND.HLT.security.spar_risk_communication |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C10 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C10 JEE R5 |
Frequenza degli eventi epidemiciIND.HLT.epidemic.outbreak_event_frequency |
HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
Casi di colera segnalati, per 100,000 abitantiIND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k |
HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001 |
Infezioni del circolo sanguigno da MRSAIND.HLT.amr.mrsa_bloodstream |
HLT | Antimicrobial resistance | hazard | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_MRSA SDG 3.d.2 |
Infezioni del circolo sanguigno da E. coli resistente alle cefalosporine di terza generazioneIND.HLT.amr.ecoli_3gc_bloodstream |
HLT | Antimicrobial resistance | hazard | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_ECOLI SDG 3.d.2 |
Ritardo della crescita nei bambini sotto i cinque anniIND.HLT.nutrition.stunting |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025 |
Deperimento nei bambini sotto i cinque anniIND.HLT.nutrition.wasting |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026 |
Anemia nelle donne in età riproduttivaIND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043 |
Seggi occupati da donne nel parlamento nazionaleIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament |
SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
Popolazione di 65 anni e oltre, quota del totaleIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus |
DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS |
Attacchi contro l'assistenza sanitariaIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care |
CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Voce e responsabilità (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
Stabilità politica e assenza di violenza (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
Efficacia del governo (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
Controllo della corruzione (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Punteggio della libertà di stampa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Stato di diritto (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
Diritti di proprietà e governance basata su regole (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
Detenuti senza condanna, quota della popolazione carcerariaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
Incidenza della corruzione tra le impreseIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
Qualità della regolamentazione (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
Valutazione complessiva CPIA (indice di allocazione delle risorse IDA)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
CPIA gestione e istituzioni del settore pubblicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
CPIA trasparenza, responsabilità e corruzione nel settore pubblicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
Efficienza nella mobilitazione delle entrate (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
Scostamento dell'esecuzione del bilancio dal bilancio approvatoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
Punteggio complessivo degli Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
Completezza della registrazione delle nasciteIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
Anni trascorsi dall'ultimo censimento della popolazioneIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census |
GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
Punteggio del contesto imprenditoriale (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall |
GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Popolazione che utilizza principalmente combustibili e tecnologie pulite per cucinareIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking |
ENE | Accesso | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di minerali critici importatiIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Persone che utilizzano InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
Ridondanza delle rotte di connettività internazionaleIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Ore di interruzione di Internet su scala nazionaleIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours |
INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a |
COUNTRY | |
Strutture critiche con alimentazione di riserva per 72 oreIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
Strutture salvavita in zone ad alto pericolo, quotaIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Strutture sanitarie danneggiate o distrutte da disastriIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-2 |
Punteggio dell'ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_score |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Overall score |
Livello dell'ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier |
CYB | Cyber capability | vulnerability | {class} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Tier |
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure legaliIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure tecnicheIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure organizzativeIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure di sviluppo delle capacitàIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development |
CYB | Cyber capability | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures |
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure di cooperazioneIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures |
Squadra nazionale di risposta agli incidenti informatici operativaIND.CYB.capability.national_cert |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
Legislazione sulla protezione dei dati e sulla privacy in vigoreIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
Incidenti informatici significativi per milione di abitantiIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate |
CYB | Incidents | hazard | /10*6/a |
COUNTRY | |
Incidenti informatici che interrompono servizi criticiIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents |
CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Valore aggiunto dei servizi TIC, quota del PILIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
Sviluppo dell'e-governmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Spesa interna lorda in R&S, quota del PILIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
Ricercatori per milione di abitantiIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
Esportazioni ad alta tecnologia, quota delle esportazioni manifatturiereIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di semiconduttori importatiIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di infrastrutture cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Capacità di calcolo per l'IA sotto controllo estero o di un unico fornitoreIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control |
TEC | Intelligenza artificiale | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di modelli di baseIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration |
TEC | Intelligenza artificiale | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Supervisione di biosicurezza dei laboratori ad alto contenimentoIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight |
TEC | Biotecnologie | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Strategia nazionale di riduzione del rischio di disastri allineata al Quadro di riferimento di Sendai per la riduzione del rischio di disastriIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
Governi locali con strategie di riduzione del rischio di disastri allineate alla strategia nazionaleIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
Popolazione entro 15 minuti dai servizi di emergenzaIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access |
CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
05Pericoli
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| Famiglia | Dominio | Pericoli | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI system failure and misalignment | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| Biotecnologie e biologia sintetica | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| Tecnologie di intervento climatico | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
| Supply-chain and flow disruption | Eventi sistemici e composti | Supply-chain disruption, Chokepoint blockage, Port or hub closure, Fuel and energy supply shock, Food supply-chain breakdown, Trade restriction or embargo, Single-source supplier failure, Cold-chain failure … | 17 |
| Cascading failure | Eventi sistemici e composti | Interdependent infrastructure cascade, Blackout-driven service cascade, Water-energy-food cascade, Financial contagion, Health-system overload, Emergency-response overload, Digital dependency cascade, Lifeline restoration deadlock … | 10 |
| Compound and multi-hazard events | Eventi sistemici e composti | Compound flooding, Concurrent heat and drought, Simultaneous multi-region crop failure, Cold-wave energy crunch, Heat-driven grid stress, Natech event, Successive hazards, Disaster during an epidemic … | 9 |
| Structural fragility of interconnected systems | Eventi sistemici e composti | Critical single point of failure, Critical service provider concentration, Common-mode failure, Technology monoculture, Lean inventory fragility, Geographic clustering of critical production, Unmapped critical dependency, Tightly coupled automated systems … | 11 |
06Metodi
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
56 methods
Cyber, IA e tecnologie di frontiera
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
21 methods
Reti, dipendenza e rischio sistemico
Dependency Graph · Centrality · Critical Node · Cascading Failure · Contagion · Percolation · Interdependency …
07Users
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Universities and research
Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.
UN system and humanitarian organisations
Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.
Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools
Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.
08Rapporti
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
XT-20- Edition status
- prevista
- Oggetto
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
09Cita
Cita e riutilizza
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Converging technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-20), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-20/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000107.
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-20:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.HLT.security.health_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Stato
La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.
Che cosa non è NXS-GRX
NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.
Istituzioni e fonti
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.