The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-GOV · LCC Lack of coping and adaptive capacity
Indice di debolezza della governance
Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
Page GRX-IDX-GOVEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weaknessValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
arithmetic
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
Incertezza
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Struttura
4 components
16 leaf indicators
Copertura
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
16
leaf indicators
4
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
12
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Institutional weakness turns hazards into disasters and disasters into crises; the four sub-indices stay visible, and the CPI is excluded because its licence forbids derivatives.
computation
How Governance weakness is computedGraph23 nodes
Grafo
01Indicatori
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilastro
05Composito
100%
Indice
- Voce e responsabilità (WGI)Indicator · IND · scorePerceived extent to which citizens can choose their government and enjoy freedom of expression, association and a free media, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Stabilità politica e assenza di violenza (WGI)Indicator · IND · scorePerceived likelihood of political instability or politically motivated violence, including terrorism, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Efficacia del governo (WGI)Indicator · IND · scorePerceived quality of public services, of the civil service and its independence from political pressure, and of policy formulation and implementation, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Controllo della corruzione (WGI)Indicator · IND · scorePerceived extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including petty and grand corruption and state capture, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Punteggio della libertà di stampa (RSF)Indicator · IND · scoreReporters Without Borders World Press Freedom Index score, 0 to 100 with higher meaning freer, under the methodology in use since 2022; ingested as published.
- Stato di diritto (WGI)Indicator · IND · scorePerceived confidence in and adherence to the rules of society, including contract enforcement, property rights, police and courts, and the likelihood of crime and violence, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Diritti di proprietà e governance basata su regole (CPIA)Indicator · IND · scoreWorld Bank staff rating, from 1 to 6, of the extent to which private economic activity is facilitated by an effective legal system and rule-based governance that respects property and contract rights.
- Detenuti senza condanna, quota della popolazione carcerariaIndicator · IND · %People held in detention who have not been sentenced, as a percentage of the total prison population.
- Incidenza della corruzione tra le impreseIndicator · IND · %Share of firms that experienced at least one bribe payment request across six types of public transactions, from Enterprise Surveys.
- Qualità della regolamentazione (WGI)Indicator · IND · scorePerceived ability of government to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private-sector development, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Valutazione complessiva CPIA (indice di allocazione delle risorse IDA)Indicator · IND · scoreAverage World Bank staff rating, from 1 to 6, of economic management, structural policies, social inclusion and public-sector management, for IDA-eligible countries.
- Efficienza nella mobilitazione delle entrate (CPIA)Indicator · IND · scoreWorld Bank staff rating, from 1 to 6, of the tax policy and tax administration: base breadth, rate structure, collection efficiency and compliance cost.
- Scostamento dell'esecuzione del bilancio dal bilancio approvatoIndicator · IND · %Absolute difference, in percentage points, between primary government expenditure outturn and 100% of the originally approved budget.
- Punteggio complessivo degli Statistical Performance IndicatorsIndicator · IND · scoreWorld Bank SPI overall score, from 0 to 100, across data use, data services, data products, data sources and data infrastructure.
- Completezza della registrazione delle nasciteIndicator · IND · %Share of children under five whose births are registered with civil authorities.
- Anni trascorsi dall'ultimo censimento della popolazioneIndicator · IND · aNumber of years between the reference year and the most recent completed population and housing census.
- Governance quality sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 44.4%Composite of WGI voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption, with RSF press freedom.
- Rule of law sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of WGI rule of law, CPIA property rights, unsentenced detention and firms’ experience of bribery.
- Policy and institutional quality sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of WGI regulatory quality, the CPIA overall rating, revenue-mobilisation efficiency and budget credibility.
- Statistical capacity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 11.1%Composite of the SPI overall score, completeness of birth registration and census recency.
- Indice di debolezza della governanceDomain index · IDX · arithmeticWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
- Mancanza di capacità di risposta e di adattamentoPillar · PILLAR · 2 indicesCan institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Non eseguitoIn corsoCompletato
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate governance weakness on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
funziona nel vostro browser
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03Metodo
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- min–max rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- esperto
- Aggregation
- arithmetic
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Incertezza
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- INFORM Lack of Coping Capacity: institutional (structure only); WB WGI 2025 methodology; JRC COIN 10-step guide; OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
Molto bassoda 0.0 a < 2.0
Bassoda 2.0 a < 3.5
Medioda 3.5 a < 5.0
Altoda 5.0 a < 6.5
Molto altoda 6.5 a 10.0
04Components
4 components, 16 indicators
Governance quality sub-index w 2
Composite of WGI voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption, with RSF press freedom.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Voce e responsabilità (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 22.2% |
Stabilità politica e assenza di violenza (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 22.2% |
Efficacia del governo (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 22.2% |
Controllo della corruzione (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 22.2% |
Punteggio della libertà di stampa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom | {score} | Class E | rsf-world-press-freedom-index (licence terms to be cleared) | 11.1% |
Rule of law sub-index w 1
Composite of WGI rule of law, CPIA property rights, unsentenced detention and firms’ experience of bribery.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stato di diritto (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 40.0% |
Diritti di proprietà e governance basata su regole (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights | {score} | Class E | wb-cpia, wb-wdi | 20.0% |
Detenuti senza condanna, quota della popolazione carcerariaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees | % | Class B | unodc-cts | 20.0% |
Incidenza della corruzione tra le impreseIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms | % | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys, wb-wdi | 20.0% |
Policy and institutional quality sub-index w 1
Composite of WGI regulatory quality, the CPIA overall rating, revenue-mobilisation efficiency and budget credibility.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Qualità della regolamentazione (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 40.0% |
Valutazione complessiva CPIA (indice di allocazione delle risorse IDA)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall | {score} | Class E | wb-cpia, wb-wdi | 20.0% |
Efficienza nella mobilitazione delle entrate (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration | {score} | Class E | wb-cpia, wb-wdi, imf-isora | 20.0% |
Scostamento dell'esecuzione del bilancio dal bilancio approvatoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation | % | Class B | pefa, national-budget-documents | 20.0% |
Statistical capacity sub-index w 0.5
Composite of the SPI overall score, completeness of birth registration and census recency.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Punteggio complessivo degli Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall | {score} | Class B | wb-spi, wb-wdi | 50.0% |
Completezza della registrazione delle nasciteIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration | % | Class B | unicef-birth-registration, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Anni trascorsi dall'ultimo censimento della popolazioneIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census | a | Class A | unsd-census-programme | 25.0% |
05Dominio
Governance e istituzioni
Quality of governance, rule of law, policy and institutional capacity, statistical capacity.
| Sub-domain | Indicatori |
|---|---|
| Governance quality | 6 |
| Rule of law | 4 |
| Policy and institutional quality | 6 |
| Statistical capacity | 3 |
| Business environment | 1 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): WB WGI 2025; WB CPIA; WB SPI 2025; WB B-READY.
06Indicatori
All 20 governance and institutions indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicatore | Dominio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unità | Livelli | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Voce e responsabilità (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
Stabilità politica e assenza di violenza (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
Efficacia del governo (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
Controllo della corruzione (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
Punteggio della libertà di stampa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
Stato di diritto (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law | GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
Diritti di proprietà e governance basata su regole (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights | GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
Detenuti senza condanna, quota della popolazione carcerariaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees | GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
Incidenza della corruzione tra le impreseIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms | GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
Qualità della regolamentazione (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
Valutazione complessiva CPIA (indice di allocazione delle risorse IDA)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
CPIA gestione e istituzioni del settore pubblicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
CPIA trasparenza, responsabilità e corruzione nel settore pubblicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
Efficienza nella mobilitazione delle entrate (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
Scostamento dell'esecuzione del bilancio dal bilancio approvatoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
Punteggio complessivo degli Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall | GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
Completezza della registrazione delle nasciteIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration | GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
Anni trascorsi dall'ultimo censimento della popolazioneIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census | GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a | COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
Punteggio del contesto imprenditoriale (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall | GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY |
07Quotazione
Governance weakness index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · GOV · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Governance weakness index, world
–
I valori sono pubblicati con l'edizione; qui compaiono intervallo, classe e variazione.
- Edizione precedente
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Composito accoppiato
- –
- Punteggio di accoppiamento S
- –
- Pulse, ultima settimana
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Metodo
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Estrazioni
- 1,000
Governance weakness index, world, by edition
Nessun valore ancora pubblicato. La prima edizione traccia qui lo storico con la banda dell'intervallo e i limiti di classe.
Africa54
Americhe35
Asia48
Europa44
Nessuna variazione per ora. Dalla seconda edizione in poi, le variazioni rispetto all’edizione precedente sono elencate qui, insieme agli indicatori che le hanno determinate.
08Valori
Country values
FIG 5 · Governance weakness index: countries (values when released)
Caricamento della mappa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- Tile
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/gov/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Chiave di osservazione
nis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Serie
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-14Global Policy and institutionsGovernance weakness, state capacity, rule of law, preparedness frameworks and the institutional ability to anticipate and adapt.→ SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction.→ SR-10Digital public infrastructureIdentity, payments and data-exchange infrastructure as public goods, and their concentration, cyber and continuity risk.→ SR-11Information integrity and social cohesionInformation disorder, polarisation, trust and cohesion as amplifiers of every other risk.→ XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps.→ XT-10Digital twins and simulationDigital twins and simulation used for risk decisions: model risk, validation and dependency.→ XT-11Digital identity and trustIdentity, authentication and trust infrastructure: exclusion, fraud, breach and concentration risk.→ XT-15Biotechnology and biosecurityBiotechnology capability and governance at public-safe level: laboratory biosafety, oversight and detection capacity; no capability information is published.→ XT-18Climate intervention technologiesCarbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only.→ XT-19Neurotechnology and human augmentationNeurotechnology and augmentation: safety, privacy, equity and governance risks.→ XT-20Converging technologiesRisks that emerge where frontier technologies combine (AI with biotechnology, autonomy with cyber, compute with energy) and outrun single-technology governance.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WGI | 12 |
WB_WDI | 7 |
SDG | 5 |
11In tutto il Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
In tutto il Nexus
GCRI Registry · GCRI Campaigns · GCRI Agency · GRF Diplomacy · Governance Nexus · GRF Information Integrity and Public Trust.
12Cita
Cita e riutilizza
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Governance weakness index (GRX-IDX-GOV), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/governance-weakness/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000124.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Stato
La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.
Che cosa non è NXS-GRX
NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.
Istituzioni e fonti
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.