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Il Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-15 · Exponential technology series

Biotecnologie e biosicurezza

Capacità e governance biotecnologica a un livello sicuro per il pubblico: biosicurezza di laboratorio, vigilanza e capacità di rilevamento; non si pubblicano informazioni sulle capacità.

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-15Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-15 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indici di dominio

3

Health security risk · Governance weakness · Technology concentration risk.

Indicatori

90

3 index domains

Hazard families

37

Health and biosecurity · Frontier and exponential technology.

Metodi

81

Health and epidemiology · Cyber, AI and frontier technology.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
indici di dominio
90
indicators in scope
2
domini di pericolo
3
client groups

01Ambito

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

Public-safe screen. This series reads governance, detection and preparedness only; no capability, method or sensitive location information is published.
  1. Where does capability outpace oversight?
  2. How strong is detection and response?
  3. Which governance gaps matter most?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Biotechnology and biosecurity index is built

Graph7 nodes
Grafo
01Indici di dominio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Indice
  1. Rischio per la sicurezza sanitaria

    Domain index · IDX · HLT
    INFORM-style aggregation, on 0 to 10, of epidemic and AMR hazard, disease burden and undernutrition against health-system and IHR capacity, each component oriented by its own polarity.
  2. Debolezza della governance

    Domain index · IDX · GOV
    Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
  3. Rischio di concentrazione tecnologica

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Biotechnology and biosecurity index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-15
    Capacità e governance biotecnologica a un livello sicuro per il pubblico: biosicurezza di laboratorio, vigilanza e capacità di rilevamento; non si pubblicano informazioni sulle capacità.
  5. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Non eseguitoIn corsoCompletato
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indici

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-15 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Biotechnology and biosecurity index, world
–
I valori sono pubblicati con l'edizione; qui compaiono intervallo, classe e variazione.
Indice Valore Variazione Variazione % Intervallo al 90% Classe · probabilità Tendenza Intervallo
Rischio per la sicurezza sanitariaNXS-GRX · HLT – – – – –
Debolezza della governanceNXS-GRX · GOV – – – – –
Rischio di concentrazione tecnologicaNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Health, Technology and frontier, Governance and institutions.

04Indicatori

90 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
HLT · 31GOV · 20TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicatore Dominio Sub-domain Componente Unità Livelli Crosswalks
Punteggio dell'indicatore composito LIC-DSF (pubblicato, riferimento)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Prontezza economica agli investimenti per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Prontezza della governance per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Giorni di caldo umido pericoloso all'annoIND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days HAZ Extreme heat hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501
Eventi di esposizione alle ondate di calore per personaIND.HAZ.heat.heatwave_person_days HAZ Extreme heat exposure d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY
Popolazione esposta al caldo estremo, quotaIND.HAZ.heat.heat_population_exposed.share HAZ Extreme heat exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY
Esposizione al PM2.5, media ponderata per la popolazioneIND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure ENV Qualità dell'aria hazard ug/m3 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD
Popolazione esposta oltre il valore guida OMS per il PM2.5, quotaIND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share ENV Qualità dell'aria exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS
Esposizione stagionale ai picchi di ozonoIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure ENV Qualità dell'aria hazard [ppb] COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Popolazione che utilizza acqua potabile gestita in modo sicuroIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD
Popolazione che utilizza almeno acqua potabile di baseIND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS
Popolazione che utilizza servizi igienico-sanitari gestiti in modo sicuroIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD
Popolazione con strutture di base per il lavaggio delle maniIND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1
Indice di dipendenza da acque rinnovabili esterneIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Superficie di bacini transfrontalieri con cooperazione operativaIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
Tasso di mortalità sotto i cinque anniIND.HLT.burden.under5_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.DYN.MORT SDG 3.2.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000007
Tasso di mortalità neonataleIND.HLT.burden.neonatal_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.DYN.NMRT SDG 3.2.2
Rapporto di mortalità maternaIND.HLT.burden.maternal_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability /10*5 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.MMRT SDG 3.1.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000026
Speranza di vita alla nascitaIND.HLT.burden.life_expectancy HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability a COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.DYN.LE00.IN WHO_GHO WHOSIS_000001
Mortalità prematura per le principali malattie non trasmissibiliIND.HLT.burden.ncd_premature_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS SDG 3.4.1 WHO_GHO NCDMORT3070
Incidenza della tubercolosiIND.HLT.burden.tb_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*5 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.TBS.INCD SDG 3.3.2 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000020
Incidenza della malariaIND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA
Incidenza dell'HIVIND.HLT.burden.hiv_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.TL.P3 SDG 3.3.1 WHO_GHO SDGHIV WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.ZS
Medici per 1,000 abitantiIND.HLT.system.physician_density HLT Health system capacity coping capacity /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MED.PHYS.ZS WHO_GHO HWF_0001 SDG 3.c.1
Infermieri e ostetriche per 1,000 abitantiIND.HLT.system.nurse_midwife_density HLT Health system capacity coping capacity /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MED.NUMW.P3 WHO_GHO HWF_0006 SDG 3.c.1
Posti letto ospedalieri per 1,000 abitantiIND.HLT.system.hospital_beds HLT Health system capacity coping capacity /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MED.BEDS.ZS WHO_GHO WHS6_102
Indice di copertura dei servizi UHCIND.HLT.system.uhc_service_coverage HLT Health system capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SDG 3.8.1 WHO_GHO UHC_INDEX_REPORTED WB_WDI SH.UHC.SRVS.CV.XD
Popolazione con spese sanitarie catastrofiche a proprio caricoIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS
Spesa sanitaria a carico dei pazienti, quota della spesa sanitaria correnteIND.HLT.system.oop_share HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.XPD.OOPC.CH.ZS WHO_GHO GHED_OOPSCHE_SHA2011
Spesa sanitaria corrente, quota del PILIND.HLT.system.health_expenditure.gdp HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS
Copertura vaccinale DTP3IND.HLT.system.dtp3_coverage HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WHO_GHO WHS4_100 WB_WDI SH.IMM.IDPT SDG 3.b.1
Copertura vaccinale con la seconda dose contro il morbilloIND.HLT.system.mcv2_coverage HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WHO_GHO MCV2 WB_WDI SH.IMM.MEA2 SDG 3.b.1
Parti assistiti da personale sanitario qualificatoIND.HLT.system.skilled_birth_attendance HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.BRTC.ZS SDG 3.1.2
Tempo di percorrenza fino alla struttura sanitaria più vicinaIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time HLT Health system capacity vulnerability min COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Punteggio delle capacità fondamentali RSI (SPAR)IND.HLT.security.spar_capacity HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SDG 3.d.1 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2021 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2018
Capacità di laboratorio RSI (SPAR C4)IND.HLT.security.spar_laboratory HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C4 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C04 JEE D1
Capacità di sorveglianza RSI (SPAR C5)IND.HLT.security.spar_surveillance HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C5 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C05 JEE D2
Capacità di gestione delle emergenze sanitarie RSI (SPAR C7)IND.HLT.security.spar_emergency_management HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C7 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C07 JEE R1
Capacità di comunicazione del rischio RSI (SPAR C10)IND.HLT.security.spar_risk_communication HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C10 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C10 JEE R5
Frequenza degli eventi epidemiciIND.HLT.epidemic.outbreak_event_frequency HLT Epidemic and outbreak hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1
Casi di colera segnalati, per 100,000 abitantiIND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k HLT Epidemic and outbreak hazard /10*5 COUNTRY WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001
Infezioni del circolo sanguigno da MRSAIND.HLT.amr.mrsa_bloodstream HLT Antimicrobial resistance hazard % COUNTRY WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_MRSA SDG 3.d.2
Infezioni del circolo sanguigno da E. coli resistente alle cefalosporine di terza generazioneIND.HLT.amr.ecoli_3gc_bloodstream HLT Antimicrobial resistance hazard % COUNTRY WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_ECOLI SDG 3.d.2
Ritardo della crescita nei bambini sotto i cinque anniIND.HLT.nutrition.stunting HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025
Deperimento nei bambini sotto i cinque anniIND.HLT.nutrition.wasting HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026
Anemia nelle donne in età riproduttivaIND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043
Seggi occupati da donne nel parlamento nazionaleIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
Popolazione di 65 anni e oltre, quota del totaleIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
Attacchi contro l'assistenza sanitariaIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care CON Civilian harm impact 1 COUNTRY
Voce e responsabilità (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Stabilità politica e assenza di violenza (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Efficacia del governo (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Controllo della corruzione (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Punteggio della libertà di stampa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Stato di diritto (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Diritti di proprietà e governance basata su regole (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Detenuti senza condanna, quota della popolazione carcerariaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Incidenza della corruzione tra le impreseIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Qualità della regolamentazione (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
Valutazione complessiva CPIA (indice di allocazione delle risorse IDA)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA gestione e istituzioni del settore pubblicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA trasparenza, responsabilità e corruzione nel settore pubblicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Efficienza nella mobilitazione delle entrate (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Scostamento dell'esecuzione del bilancio dal bilancio approvatoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Punteggio complessivo degli Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Completezza della registrazione delle nasciteIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Anni trascorsi dall'ultimo censimento della popolazioneIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Punteggio del contesto imprenditoriale (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Popolazione che utilizza principalmente combustibili e tecnologie pulite per cucinareIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking ENE Accesso vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
Concentrazione dei fornitori di minerali critici importatiIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Strutture critiche con alimentazione di riserva per 72 oreIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power INF Utilities coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Strutture salvavita in zone ad alto pericolo, quotaIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Strutture sanitarie danneggiate o distrutte da disastriIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-2
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure legaliIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure organizzativeIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Legislazione sulla protezione dei dati e sulla privacy in vigoreIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Sviluppo dell'e-governmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Spesa interna lorda in R&S, quota del PILIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Ricercatori per milione di abitantiIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Esportazioni ad alta tecnologia, quota delle esportazioni manifatturiereIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentrazione dei fornitori di semiconduttori importatiIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei fornitori di infrastrutture cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacità di calcolo per l'IA sotto controllo estero o di un unico fornitoreIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Intelligenza artificiale vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei fornitori di modelli di baseIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Intelligenza artificiale vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervisione di biosicurezza dei laboratori ad alto contenimentoIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotecnologie coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Strategia nazionale di riduzione del rischio di disastri allineata al Quadro di riferimento di Sendai per la riduzione del rischio di disastriIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Governi locali con strategie di riduzione del rischio di disastri allineate alla strategia nazionaleIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
Popolazione entro 15 minuti dai servizi di emergenzaIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
05Pericoli

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
SaluteFrontiera233HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 37 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Famiglia Dominio Pericoli Count
Airborne and respiratory infection Salute e biosicurezza Respiratory pandemic, Seasonal influenza epidemic, Zoonotic influenza spillover, Coronavirus outbreak, Tuberculosis surge, Bacterial meningitis outbreak 6
Vaccine-preventable outbreaks Salute e biosicurezza Measles outbreak, Polio outbreak, Diphtheria and whooping cough outbreak, Other vaccine-preventable outbreak 4
Faecal-oral and foodborne infection Salute e biosicurezza Cholera outbreak, Typhoid and paratyphoid fever, Shigellosis and dysentery outbreak, Viral diarrhoea outbreak, Faecal-oral hepatitis outbreak, Foodborne illness outbreak, Waterborne disease outbreak 7
Vector-borne infection Salute e biosicurezza Dengue epidemic, Chikungunya and Zika outbreak, Yellow fever outbreak, West Nile and Culex-borne virus outbreak, Malaria resurgence, Plague outbreak, Trypanosomiasis outbreak, Tick-borne disease surge … 10
Haemorrhagic fever Salute e biosicurezza Ebola and Marburg outbreak, Lassa fever outbreak, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever outbreak 3
Blood-borne and sexually transmitted infection Salute e biosicurezza HIV epidemic, Chronic viral hepatitis B and C burden, Sexually transmitted infection resurgence 3
Animal-to-human spillover Salute e biosicurezza Zoonotic spillover event, Anthrax outbreak, Brucellosis outbreak, Rabies outbreak, Leptospirosis outbreak, Mpox outbreak, Rift Valley fever outbreak, Nipah and henipavirus outbreak 8
Rare and persistent human infections Salute e biosicurezza Prion disease cluster, Smallpox reintroduction 2
Livestock and aquaculture epizootics Salute e biosicurezza Swine fever epizootic, Foot-and-mouth epizootic, Ruminant respiratory epizootic, Vector-borne livestock disease, Poultry epizootic, Screwworm infestation, Aquaculture disease outbreak, Livestock disease outbreak 8
Plant disease and pests Salute e biosicurezza Bacterial and fungal crop disease, Plant virus epidemic, Crop insect pest outbreak, Locust swarm, Invasive species spread 5
Systemic biological risks Salute e biosicurezza Antimicrobial resistance, Deliberate or accidental biological-agent release 2
Environmental and product harm to people Salute e biosicurezza Snakebite envenoming, Substandard and falsified medicines, Adulterated alcohol poisoning, Overdose epidemic 4
Climate-sensitive illness Salute e biosicurezza Heat-related illness surge, Cold-related illness surge, Disease vector range expansion, Aeroallergen season intensification, Warm-water bacterial infection 5
Drug and insecticide resistance by pathogen class Salute e biosicurezza Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spread, Antiviral drug resistance, Antimalarial and antiparasitic drug resistance, Antifungal drug resistance, Insecticide resistance in disease vectors, Antimicrobial development and supply failure 6
Emerging and unknown infection threats Salute e biosicurezza Unknown future pathogen emergence, Emerging fungal pathogen, Endemic fungal disease range expansion, Healthcare-associated infection outbreak, Undiagnosed illness cluster 5
Maternal, newborn and child health emergencies Salute e biosicurezza Maternal mortality rise, Newborn mortality surge, Preterm and low birthweight birth rise, Childhood immunisation coverage collapse, Infant feeding disruption, Reproductive health service disruption 6
Mental health crises Salute e biosicurezza Population mental distress surge, Post-disaster traumatic stress, Suicide rate rise, Youth mental health crisis, Climate-related psychological distress, Social isolation and loneliness epidemic, Mass psychogenic illness outbreak, Gambling harm surge 8
Noncommunicable disease surges Salute e biosicurezza Cardiovascular disease surge, Diabetes epidemic, Obesity epidemic, Cancer burden rise, Chronic respiratory disease burden, Chronic kidney disease surge, Dementia burden growth, Post-infection chronic illness … 11
Malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency Salute e biosicurezza Acute malnutrition surge, Chronic undernutrition and stunting, Micronutrient deficiency, Nutritional deficiency disease outbreak, Unhealthy diet transition, Crop nutrient decline 6
Occupational disease and injury Salute e biosicurezza Occupational lung disease, Occupational heat strain, Occupational cancer, Occupational chemical poisoning, Workplace injury burden, Work-related psychosocial harm 6
Health system capacity failure Salute e biosicurezza Health workforce shortage, Health worker industrial action, Health financing collapse, Catastrophic out-of-pocket health spending, Vaccine confidence collapse, Essential health service disruption, Disease surveillance failure, Health facility loss of function … 9
AI system failure and misalignment Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotecnologie e biologia sintetica Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Tecnologie di intervento climatico Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06Metodi

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

25 methods

Salute ed epidemiologia

SIR Epidemiology · SEIR Epidemiology · Stochastic Epidemic · Rt Estimation · Health Nowcasting · Outbreak Detection · Syndromic Surveillance …

56 methods

Cyber, IA e tecnologie di frontiera

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

08Rapporti

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-15
Edition status
prevista
Oggetto
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09Cita

Cita e riutilizza

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Biotechnology and biosecurity series (GRX-SER-XT-15), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-15/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000102.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-15:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.HLT.security.health_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Profili dei paesi Tutte le serie

Stato

La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.

Che cosa non è NXS-GRX

NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.

Istituzioni e fonti

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.