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Il Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ENE · VUL Human and systems vulnerability

Indice di rischio per la sicurezza energetica

Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.

Page GRX-IDX-ENEEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

geometric

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Incertezza

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

Struttura

5 components

20 leaf indicators

Copertura

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 25%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Shows where an energy shock, from a supplier, a chokepoint, a grid failure or a mineral export control, would hit hardest; each sub-index stays visible beside the total.

computation
How Energy security risk is computed
Graph28 nodes
Grafo
01Indicatori
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilastro
05Composito
100%
Indice
  1. Popolazione con accesso all'elettricità
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population living in households with an electricity supply that can power at least basic lighting, whether from the grid, a mini-grid or a stand-alone system.
  2. Popolazione che utilizza principalmente combustibili e tecnologie pulite per cucinare
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population whose household cooks mainly with clean fuels and stoves (electricity, gas, biogas, ethanol, solar) rather than solid fuels or kerosene.
  3. Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di energia
    Indicator · IND · %
    Energy imports minus exports as a share of total energy supply, all fuels in energy units; negative values denote net exporters.
  4. Spesa per importazioni di combustibili, quota delle esportazioni di beni e servizi
    Indicator · IND · %
    Value of imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of total exports of goods and services in the same year.
  5. Concentrazione dei fornitori di greggio e prodotti petroliferi importati
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import shares by country of origin for crude oil and refined oil products combined, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale; weighted by import dependence when used in composites.
  6. Concentrazione dei fornitori di gas naturale importato
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of natural gas import shares by origin, counting pipeline gas and LNG cargoes together, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. Concentrazione dei fornitori di carbone importato
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of coal import shares (steam and metallurgical) by origin, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. Scorte di petrolio in giorni di importazioni nette
    Indicator · IND · d
    Emergency and commercial oil stocks held on national territory (or under bilateral agreement) divided by average daily net oil imports of the previous year, in days, following the IEA stockholding convention.
  9. Concentrazione del mix di generazione elettrica
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of annual electricity generation shares across sources (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, bioenergy, other), on a 0–1 scale.
  10. Quota fossile della generazione elettrica
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of gross electricity generation produced from coal, oil and natural gas.
  11. Intensità di energia primaria del PIL
    Indicator · IND · MJ/USD
    Total energy supply divided by GDP at ICP 2021 purchasing-power parities, in megajoules per international dollar.
  12. Quota rinnovabile del consumo finale totale di energia
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of final energy consumption met from renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern and traditional bioenergy, ocean), with traditional biomass reported as a separate disaggregation.
  13. Capacità di generazione rinnovabile installata pro capite
    Indicator · IND · W/person
    Installed renewable electricity-generating capacity at year end divided by mid-year population, in watts per person.
  14. Interruzioni di corrente subite dalle imprese in un mese tipico
    Indicator · IND · /mo
    Average number of electrical outages that formal private firms report in a typical month, from establishment surveys.
  15. Valore perso per interruzioni elettriche, quota delle vendite delle imprese
    Indicator · IND · %
    Losses that firms attribute to power outages as a percentage of annual sales, from establishment surveys.
  16. Durata media delle interruzioni del sistema (SAIDI)
    Indicator · IND · h/a
    Total minutes of sustained supply interruption per customer served in the year, expressed in hours, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
  17. Frequenza media delle interruzioni del sistema (SAIFI)
    Indicator · IND · /a
    Number of sustained supply interruptions per customer served in the year, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
  18. Perdite di trasmissione e distribuzione dell'energia elettrica
    Indicator · IND · %
    Electricity lost between generation and the consumer, technical and commercial, as a share of electricity output.
  19. Concentrazione dei fornitori di minerali critici importati
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
  20. Quota del principale fornitore nelle importazioni di minerali critici
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
  21. Energy access deficit sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).
  22. Fuel import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%
    Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.
  23. Energy mix rigidity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.
  24. Electricity supply unreliability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
  25. Critical-mineral dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%
    Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
  26. Indice di rischio per la sicurezza energetica
    Domain index · IDX · geometric
    Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  27. Vulnerabilità umana e dei sistemi
    Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indices
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  28. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Non eseguitoIn corsoCompletato
FIG 2. 20 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate energy security risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
funziona nel vostro browser
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Metodo

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
INFORM 0–10 rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
25% of weight
Weighting
esperto
Aggregation
geometric
Scale
0 to 10
Incertezza
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; IEA energy security concept; INFORM risk algebra (geometric aggregation)
Molto bassoda 0.0 a < 2.0
Bassoda 2.0 a < 3.5
Medioda 3.5 a < 5.0
Altoda 5.0 a < 6.5
Molto altoda 6.5 a 10.0
04Components

5 components, 20 indicators

Energy access deficit sub-index w 1

Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Popolazione con accesso all'elettricitàIND.ENE.access.electricity_access%Class Bwb-wdi, iea-sdg7-tracking, national-household-surveys66.7%
Popolazione che utilizza principalmente combustibili e tecnologie pulite per cucinareIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking%Class Cwho-household-energy-database, wb-wdi33.3%

Fuel import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di energiaIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports%Class Biea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-wdi30.8%
Spesa per importazioni di combustibili, quota delle esportazioni di beni e serviziIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports%Class Aun-comtrade, imf-bop, wb-wdi15.4%
Concentrazione dei fornitori di greggio e prodotti petroliferi importatiIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-oil-information, jodi-oil15.4%
Concentrazione dei fornitori di gas naturale importatoIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-natural-gas-information, jodi-gas, giignl-lng-report15.4%
Concentrazione dei fornitori di carbone importatoIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-coal-information7.7%
Scorte di petrolio in giorni di importazioni netteIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocksdClass Biea-oil-stocks-of-member-countries, eurostat-emergency-oil-stocks, jodi-oil15.4%

Energy mix rigidity sub-index w 1

Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Concentrazione del mix di generazione elettricaIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration1Class Biea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, un-energy-statistics-database22.2%
Quota fossile della generazione elettricaIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share%Class Biea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, wb-wdi22.2%
Intensità di energia primaria del PILIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensityMJ/[USD]Class Biea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-icp22.2%
Quota rinnovabile del consumo finale totale di energiaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec%Class Biea-world-energy-balances, irena-renewable-energy-statistics, un-energy-statistics-database22.2%
Capacità di generazione rinnovabile installata pro capiteIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pcW/{person}Class Birena-renewable-capacity-statistics11.1%

Electricity supply unreliability sub-index w 1

Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Interruzioni di corrente subite dalle imprese in un mese tipicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages/moClass Bwb-enterprise-surveys, wb-b-ready22.2%
Valore perso per interruzioni elettriche, quota delle vendite delle impreseIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss%Class Bwb-enterprise-surveys22.2%
Durata media delle interruzioni del sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidih/aClass Bwb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-86122.2%
Frequenza media delle interruzioni del sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi/aClass Bwb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-86122.2%
Perdite di trasmissione e distribuzione dell'energia elettricaIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses%Class Biea-electricity-information, national-energy-regulators, wb-wdi11.1%

Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 0.5

Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Concentrazione dei fornitori di minerali critici importatiIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration1Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries50.0%
Quota del principale fornitore nelle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share%Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer50.0%
05Dominio

Energia

Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition.

Sub-domainIndicatori
Accesso3
Supply security and import dependence6
Energy mix6
Reliability6
Critical minerals2

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IEA energy security; SDG 7; IRENA.

06Indicatori

All 23 energy indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ENE · 23
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndicatoreDominioSub-domainComponenteUnitàLivelliCrosswalks
Popolazione con accesso all'elettricitàIND.ENE.access.electricity_accessENEAccessovulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
Popolazione che utilizza principalmente combustibili e tecnologie pulite per cucinareIND.ENE.access.clean_cookingENEAccessovulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
Consumo di elettricità pro capiteIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pcENEAccessocontextkW.h/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
Quota rinnovabile del consumo finale totale di energiaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfecENEEnergy mixadaptive capacity%COUNTRYSDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Intensità di energia primaria del PILIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensityENEEnergy mixvulnerabilityMJ/[USD]COUNTRYSDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Concentrazione del mix di generazione elettricaIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentrationENEEnergy mixvulnerability1COUNTRY
Quota fossile della generazione elettricaIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_shareENEEnergy mixvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Capacità di generazione rinnovabile installata pro capiteIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pcENEEnergy mixadaptive capacityW/{person}COUNTRYSDG 7.b.1
Generazione elettrica dipendente dall'acqua, quotaIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.shareENEEnergy mixvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1
Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di energiaIND.ENE.security.net_energy_importsENESupply security and import dependenceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
Spesa per importazioni di combustibili, quota delle esportazioni di beni e serviziIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exportsENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Concentrazione dei fornitori di greggio e prodotti petroliferi importatiIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei fornitori di gas naturale importatoIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei fornitori di carbone importatoIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Scorte di petrolio in giorni di importazioni netteIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocksENESupply security and import dependencecoping capacitydCOUNTRY
Interruzioni di corrente subite dalle imprese in un mese tipicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outagesENEReliabilityvulnerability/moCOUNTRYWB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Valore perso per interruzioni elettriche, quota delle vendite delle impreseIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_lossENEReliabilityimpact%COUNTRYWB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
Durata media delle interruzioni del sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidiENEReliabilityvulnerabilityh/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Frequenza media delle interruzioni del sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifiENEReliabilityvulnerability/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Perdite di trasmissione e distribuzione dell'energia elettricaIND.ENE.reliability.td_lossesENEReliabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
Gradi giorno di riscaldamento e raffrescamentoIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_daysENEReliabilityhazardK.d/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Concentrazione dei fornitori di minerali critici importatiIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentrationENECritical mineralsvulnerability1COUNTRY
Quota del principale fornitore nelle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_shareENECritical mineralsvulnerability%COUNTRY
07Quotazione

Energy security risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ENE · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Energy security risk index, world
–
I valori sono pubblicati con l'edizione; qui compaiono intervallo, classe e variazione.
Edizione precedente
–
Range since 2016
–
Composito accoppiato
–
Punteggio di accoppiamento S
–
Pulse, ultima settimana
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Metodo
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Estrazioni
1,000
Energy security risk index, world, by edition

Nessun valore ancora pubblicato. La prima edizione traccia qui lo storico con la banda dell'intervallo e i limiti di classe.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Nessuna variazione per ora. Dalla seconda edizione in poi, le variazioni rispetto all’edizione precedente sono elencate qui, insieme agli indicatori che le hanno determinate.
08Valori

Country values

FIG 5 · Energy security risk index: countries (values when released)
Caricamento della mappa
AndorraAntigua e BarbudaBahreinBarbadosComoreCapo VerdeDominicaMicronesia (Stati Federati di)GrenadaKiribatiSaint Kitts e NevisSanta LuciaLiechtensteinMonacoMaldiveIsole MarshallMaltaMauritiusNauruPalauSingaporeSan MarinoSão Tomé e PríncipeSeychellesTongaTuvaluSanta SedeSaint Vincent e GrenadineSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tile
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/ene/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Chiave di osservazione
nis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI10
SDG5
ISO_371202
11In tutto il Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Cita

Cita e riutilizza

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Energy security risk index (GRX-IDX-ENE), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/energy-security-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000119.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.