The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ENE · VUL Human and systems vulnerability
エネルギー安全保障リスク指数
Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
Page GRX-IDX-ENEEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
geometric
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
不確実性
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
構成
5 components
20 leaf indicators
対象範囲
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 25%
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Shows where an energy shock, from a supplier, a chokepoint, a grid failure or a mineral export control, would hit hardest; each sub-index stays visible beside the total.
computation
How Energy security risk is computedGraph28 nodes
グラフ
01指標
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04柱
05総合
100%
索引
- 電力を利用できる人口Indicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households with an electricity supply that can power at least basic lighting, whether from the grid, a mini-grid or a stand-alone system.
- 主にクリーンな調理用燃料・技術に頼る人口Indicator · IND · %Share of the population whose household cooks mainly with clean fuels and stoves (electricity, gas, biogas, ethanol, solar) rather than solid fuels or kerosene.
- エネルギーの純輸入依存度Indicator · IND · %Energy imports minus exports as a share of total energy supply, all fuels in energy units; negative values denote net exporters.
- 燃料輸入額（財・サービスの輸出比）Indicator · IND · %Value of imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of total exports of goods and services in the same year.
- 原油・石油製品の輸入供給元集中度Indicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import shares by country of origin for crude oil and refined oil products combined, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale; weighted by import dependence when used in composites.
- 天然ガスの輸入供給元集中度Indicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of natural gas import shares by origin, counting pipeline gas and LNG cargoes together, on a 0–1 scale.
- 石炭の輸入供給元集中度Indicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of coal import shares (steam and metallurgical) by origin, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale.
- 石油備蓄（純輸入日数）Indicator · IND · dEmergency and commercial oil stocks held on national territory (or under bilateral agreement) divided by average daily net oil imports of the previous year, in days, following the IEA stockholding convention.
- 電源構成の集中度Indicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of annual electricity generation shares across sources (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, bioenergy, other), on a 0–1 scale.
- 発電量に占める化石燃料の割合Indicator · IND · %Share of gross electricity generation produced from coal, oil and natural gas.
- GDP の一次エネルギー原単位Indicator · IND · MJ/USDTotal energy supply divided by GDP at ICP 2021 purchasing-power parities, in megajoules per international dollar.
- 最終エネルギー消費総量に占める再生可能エネルギーの割合Indicator · IND · %Share of final energy consumption met from renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern and traditional bioenergy, ocean), with traditional biomass reported as a separate disaggregation.
- 1 人あたり再生可能エネルギー設備容量Indicator · IND · W/personInstalled renewable electricity-generating capacity at year end divided by mid-year population, in watts per person.
- 典型的な 1 か月に企業が経験する停電Indicator · IND · /moAverage number of electrical outages that formal private firms report in a typical month, from establishment surveys.
- 停電による損失額（企業売上高に占める割合）Indicator · IND · %Losses that firms attribute to power outages as a percentage of annual sales, from establishment surveys.
- 系統平均停電時間（SAIDI）Indicator · IND · h/aTotal minutes of sustained supply interruption per customer served in the year, expressed in hours, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
- 系統平均停電頻度（SAIFI）Indicator · IND · /aNumber of sustained supply interruptions per customer served in the year, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
- 送配電損失Indicator · IND · %Electricity lost between generation and the consumer, technical and commercial, as a share of electricity output.
- 重要鉱物の輸入供給元集中度Indicator · IND · 1Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
- 重要鉱物輸入に占める最大供給元の割合Indicator · IND · %Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
- Energy access deficit sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).
- Fuel import dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.
- Energy mix rigidity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.
- Electricity supply unreliability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
- Critical-mineral dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
- エネルギー安全保障リスク指数Domain index · IDX · geometricIndex of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- 人間とシステムの脆弱性Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indicesHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
未実行進行中完了
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate energy security risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
ブラウザで動作
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03手法
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- INFORM 0–10 rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 25% of weight
- Weighting
- 専門家
- Aggregation
- geometric
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- 不確実性
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; IEA energy security concept; INFORM risk algebra (geometric aggregation)
非常に低い0.0〜< 2.0
低い2.0〜< 3.5
中程度3.5〜< 5.0
高い5.0〜< 6.5
非常に高い6.5 から 10.0
04Components
5 components, 20 indicators
Energy access deficit sub-index w 1
Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
電力を利用できる人口IND.ENE.access.electricity_access | % | Class B | wb-wdi, iea-sdg7-tracking, national-household-surveys | 66.7% |
主にクリーンな調理用燃料・技術に頼る人口IND.ENE.access.clean_cooking | % | Class C | who-household-energy-database, wb-wdi | 33.3% |
Fuel import dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
エネルギーの純輸入依存度IND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports | % | Class B | iea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-wdi | 30.8% |
燃料輸入額（財・サービスの輸出比）IND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports | % | Class A | un-comtrade, imf-bop, wb-wdi | 15.4% |
原油・石油製品の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, iea-oil-information, jodi-oil | 15.4% |
天然ガスの輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, iea-natural-gas-information, jodi-gas, giignl-lng-report | 15.4% |
石炭の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, iea-coal-information | 7.7% |
石油備蓄（純輸入日数）IND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks | d | Class B | iea-oil-stocks-of-member-countries, eurostat-emergency-oil-stocks, jodi-oil | 15.4% |
Energy mix rigidity sub-index w 1
Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
電源構成の集中度IND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration | 1 | Class B | iea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, un-energy-statistics-database | 22.2% |
発電量に占める化石燃料の割合IND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share | % | Class B | iea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
GDP の一次エネルギー原単位IND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity | MJ/[USD] | Class B | iea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-icp | 22.2% |
最終エネルギー消費総量に占める再生可能エネルギーの割合IND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec | % | Class B | iea-world-energy-balances, irena-renewable-energy-statistics, un-energy-statistics-database | 22.2% |
1 人あたり再生可能エネルギー設備容量IND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc | W/{person} | Class B | irena-renewable-capacity-statistics | 11.1% |
Electricity supply unreliability sub-index w 1
Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
典型的な 1 か月に企業が経験する停電IND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages | /mo | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys, wb-b-ready | 22.2% |
停電による損失額（企業売上高に占める割合）IND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss | % | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys | 22.2% |
系統平均停電時間（SAIDI）IND.ENE.reliability.saidi | h/a | Class B | wb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-861 | 22.2% |
系統平均停電頻度（SAIFI）IND.ENE.reliability.saifi | /a | Class B | wb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-861 | 22.2% |
送配電損失IND.ENE.reliability.td_losses | % | Class B | iea-electricity-information, national-energy-regulators, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 0.5
Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
重要鉱物の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | 1 | Class D | un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries | 50.0% |
重要鉱物輸入に占める最大供給元の割合IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | % | Class D | un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer | 50.0% |
05分野
エネルギー
Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition.
| Sub-domain | 指標 |
|---|---|
| アクセス | 3 |
| Supply security and import dependence | 6 |
| Energy mix | 6 |
| Reliability | 6 |
| Critical minerals | 2 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IEA energy security; SDG 7; IRENA.
06指標
All 23 energy indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| 指標 | 分野 | Sub-domain | 構成要素 | 単位 | レベル | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
電力を利用できる人口IND.ENE.access.electricity_access | ENE | アクセス | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS |
主にクリーンな調理用燃料・技術に頼る人口IND.ENE.access.clean_cooking | ENE | アクセス | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
1 人あたり電力消費量IND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc | ENE | アクセス | context | kW.h/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC |
最終エネルギー消費総量に占める再生可能エネルギーの割合IND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec | ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS |
GDP の一次エネルギー原単位IND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | MJ/[USD] | COUNTRY | SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD |
電源構成の集中度IND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
発電量に占める化石燃料の割合IND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS |
1 人あたり再生可能エネルギー設備容量IND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc | ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | W/{person} | COUNTRY | SDG 7.b.1 |
水に依存する発電（割合）IND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
エネルギーの純輸入依存度IND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS |
燃料輸入額（財・サービスの輸出比）IND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
原油・石油製品の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
天然ガスの輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
石炭の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
石油備蓄（純輸入日数）IND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | coping capacity | d | COUNTRY | |
典型的な 1 か月に企業が経験する停電IND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /mo | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG |
停電による損失額（企業売上高に占める割合）IND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss | ENE | Reliability | impact | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS |
系統平均停電時間（SAIDI）IND.ENE.reliability.saidi | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | h/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
系統平均停電頻度（SAIFI）IND.ENE.reliability.saifi | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
送配電損失IND.ENE.reliability.td_losses | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS |
冷暖房度日IND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days | ENE | Reliability | hazard | K.d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
重要鉱物の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
重要鉱物輸入に占める最大供給元の割合IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY |
07引用
Energy security risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · ENE · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Energy security risk index, world
–
値は版とともに公開され、区間、区分、変化がここに表示されます。
- 前回の版
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- 結合総合
- –
- 結合スコア S
- –
- パルス、直近 1 週間
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- 手法
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- 抽出
- 1,000
Energy security risk index, world, by edition
公開済みの値はまだありません。最初の版で、区間の帯と区分の境界とともに履歴がここに描かれます。
アフリカ54
南北アメリカ35
アジア48
ヨーロッパ44
変動はまだありません。 前版からの変化は、第 2 版以降、その要因となった指標とともにここに掲載されます。
08値
Country values
FIG 5 · Energy security risk index: countries (values when released)
地図を読み込み中
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- タイル
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/ene/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- 観測キー
nis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09シリーズ
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-02Global EnergySupply adequacy, import dependency, grid reliability, affordability, extreme-weather exposure, critical minerals and transition pathways.→ SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction.→ SR-07Food, water and energyThe food–water–energy nexus: shared stressors, trade-offs and joint failures.→ XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps.→ TH-01Nexus InterdependencyThe water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems read together: drought to energy stress, energy disruption to health stress, biodiversity loss to food-system stress, flood to water contamination, heat to health and grid stress, cyber-physical disruption across all five.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 10 |
SDG | 5 |
ISO_37120 | 2 |
11Nexus 全体で
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Nexus 全体で
12引用
引用と再利用
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Energy security risk index (GRX-IDX-ENE), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/energy-security-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000119.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
ステータス
The Global Risks Index の手法、構造、定義は準備段階の作業草案（2026 年）であり、レビューと意見募集のために配布されているもので、実施を目的としたものではありません。管理されたエビデンスの区切りから版が公表されるまで、値は一切表示されません。公表後の値には、区間、区分、出典、訂正の経路が付されます。シミュレーターは、公表された手法をあなたが選んだ数値で実行するものであり、NXS-GRX の値を表示することはありません。
NXS-GRX ではないもの
NXS-GRX は研究およびリスク分析の情報です。信用格付や ESG 格付ではなく、格付尺度を用いず、金融商品のベンチマークでも、公的統計でも、緊急警報や公式分類でも、助言でもありません。自然人の評価に用いてはなりません。リスククラスは公開された尺度上の区分であり、国や人の順位付けではありません。
機関と情報源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
すべての値には情報源の帰属表示が付され、情報源はそれぞれ独自のライセンスを保持します。外部の名称は相互運用性のためにのみ引用しています。Nexus が執筆したテキストは、公開時に CC BY 4.0 とする予定です。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.