The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ENE · VUL Human and systems vulnerability
에너지 안보 리스크 지수
Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
Page GRX-IDX-ENEEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
geometric
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
불확실성
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
구조
5 components
20 leaf indicators
적용 범위
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 25%
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Shows where an energy shock, from a supplier, a chokepoint, a grid failure or a mineral export control, would hit hardest; each sub-index stays visible beside the total.
computation
How Energy security risk is computedGraph28 nodes
그래프
01지표
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04기둥
05종합
100%
색인
- 전기를 이용할 수 있는 인구Indicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households with an electricity supply that can power at least basic lighting, whether from the grid, a mini-grid or a stand-alone system.
- 청정 조리 연료와 기술에 주로 의존하는 인구Indicator · IND · %Share of the population whose household cooks mainly with clean fuels and stoves (electricity, gas, biogas, ethanol, solar) rather than solid fuels or kerosene.
- 순에너지 수입 의존도Indicator · IND · %Energy imports minus exports as a share of total energy supply, all fuels in energy units; negative values denote net exporters.
- 연료 수입액, 재화 및 서비스 수출 대비 비율Indicator · IND · %Value of imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of total exports of goods and services in the same year.
- 원유 및 석유제품 수입 공급처 집중도Indicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import shares by country of origin for crude oil and refined oil products combined, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale; weighted by import dependence when used in composites.
- 천연가스 수입 공급처 집중도Indicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of natural gas import shares by origin, counting pipeline gas and LNG cargoes together, on a 0–1 scale.
- 석탄 수입 공급처 집중도Indicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of coal import shares (steam and metallurgical) by origin, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale.
- 순수입 일수 기준 석유 비축량Indicator · IND · dEmergency and commercial oil stocks held on national territory (or under bilateral agreement) divided by average daily net oil imports of the previous year, in days, following the IEA stockholding convention.
- 발전원 구성 집중도Indicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of annual electricity generation shares across sources (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, bioenergy, other), on a 0–1 scale.
- 발전량 중 화석연료 비중Indicator · IND · %Share of gross electricity generation produced from coal, oil and natural gas.
- GDP 1차 에너지 집약도Indicator · IND · MJ/USDTotal energy supply divided by GDP at ICP 2021 purchasing-power parities, in megajoules per international dollar.
- 최종 에너지 소비 중 재생에너지 비중Indicator · IND · %Share of final energy consumption met from renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern and traditional bioenergy, ocean), with traditional biomass reported as a separate disaggregation.
- 1인당 재생에너지 설비 용량Indicator · IND · W/personInstalled renewable electricity-generating capacity at year end divided by mid-year population, in watts per person.
- 일반적인 한 달 동안 기업이 겪는 정전 횟수Indicator · IND · /moAverage number of electrical outages that formal private firms report in a typical month, from establishment surveys.
- 정전으로 인한 손실액, 기업 매출 대비 비율Indicator · IND · %Losses that firms attribute to power outages as a percentage of annual sales, from establishment surveys.
- 계통 평균 정전 시간(SAIDI)Indicator · IND · h/aTotal minutes of sustained supply interruption per customer served in the year, expressed in hours, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
- 계통 평균 정전 빈도(SAIFI)Indicator · IND · /aNumber of sustained supply interruptions per customer served in the year, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
- 송배전 손실Indicator · IND · %Electricity lost between generation and the consumer, technical and commercial, as a share of electricity output.
- 핵심 광물 수입 공급처 집중도Indicator · IND · 1Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
- 핵심 광물 수입 중 최대 단일 공급처 비중Indicator · IND · %Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
- Energy access deficit sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).
- Fuel import dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.
- Energy mix rigidity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.
- Electricity supply unreliability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
- Critical-mineral dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
- 에너지 안보 리스크 지수Domain index · IDX · geometricIndex of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- 인간 및 시스템 취약성Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indicesHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
실행 전진행 중완료
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate energy security risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
브라우저에서 실행됨
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03방법
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- INFORM 0–10 rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 25% of weight
- Weighting
- 전문가
- Aggregation
- geometric
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- 불확실성
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; IEA energy security concept; INFORM risk algebra (geometric aggregation)
매우 낮음0.0 이상 2.0 미만
낮음2.0 이상 3.5 미만
중간3.5 이상 5.0 미만
높음5.0 이상 6.5 미만
매우 높음6.5~10.0
04Components
5 components, 20 indicators
Energy access deficit sub-index w 1
Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).
| 지표 | 단위 | 근거 | 출처 | 비중 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
전기를 이용할 수 있는 인구IND.ENE.access.electricity_access | % | Class B | wb-wdi, iea-sdg7-tracking, national-household-surveys | 66.7% |
청정 조리 연료와 기술에 주로 의존하는 인구IND.ENE.access.clean_cooking | % | Class C | who-household-energy-database, wb-wdi | 33.3% |
Fuel import dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.
| 지표 | 단위 | 근거 | 출처 | 비중 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
순에너지 수입 의존도IND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports | % | Class B | iea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-wdi | 30.8% |
연료 수입액, 재화 및 서비스 수출 대비 비율IND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports | % | Class A | un-comtrade, imf-bop, wb-wdi | 15.4% |
원유 및 석유제품 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, iea-oil-information, jodi-oil | 15.4% |
천연가스 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, iea-natural-gas-information, jodi-gas, giignl-lng-report | 15.4% |
석탄 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, iea-coal-information | 7.7% |
순수입 일수 기준 석유 비축량IND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks | d | Class B | iea-oil-stocks-of-member-countries, eurostat-emergency-oil-stocks, jodi-oil | 15.4% |
Energy mix rigidity sub-index w 1
Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.
| 지표 | 단위 | 근거 | 출처 | 비중 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
발전원 구성 집중도IND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration | 1 | Class B | iea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, un-energy-statistics-database | 22.2% |
발전량 중 화석연료 비중IND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share | % | Class B | iea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
GDP 1차 에너지 집약도IND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity | MJ/[USD] | Class B | iea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-icp | 22.2% |
최종 에너지 소비 중 재생에너지 비중IND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec | % | Class B | iea-world-energy-balances, irena-renewable-energy-statistics, un-energy-statistics-database | 22.2% |
1인당 재생에너지 설비 용량IND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc | W/{person} | Class B | irena-renewable-capacity-statistics | 11.1% |
Electricity supply unreliability sub-index w 1
Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
| 지표 | 단위 | 근거 | 출처 | 비중 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
일반적인 한 달 동안 기업이 겪는 정전 횟수IND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages | /mo | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys, wb-b-ready | 22.2% |
정전으로 인한 손실액, 기업 매출 대비 비율IND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss | % | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys | 22.2% |
계통 평균 정전 시간(SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi | h/a | Class B | wb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-861 | 22.2% |
계통 평균 정전 빈도(SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi | /a | Class B | wb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-861 | 22.2% |
송배전 손실IND.ENE.reliability.td_losses | % | Class B | iea-electricity-information, national-energy-regulators, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 0.5
Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
| 지표 | 단위 | 근거 | 출처 | 비중 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
핵심 광물 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | 1 | Class D | un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries | 50.0% |
핵심 광물 수입 중 최대 단일 공급처 비중IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | % | Class D | un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer | 50.0% |
05영역
에너지
Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition.
| Sub-domain | 지표 |
|---|---|
| 이용 | 3 |
| Supply security and import dependence | 6 |
| Energy mix | 6 |
| Reliability | 6 |
| Critical minerals | 2 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IEA energy security; SDG 7; IRENA.
06지표
All 23 energy indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| 지표 | 영역 | Sub-domain | 구성 요소 | 단위 | 단계 | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
전기를 이용할 수 있는 인구IND.ENE.access.electricity_access | ENE | 이용 | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS |
청정 조리 연료와 기술에 주로 의존하는 인구IND.ENE.access.clean_cooking | ENE | 이용 | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
1인당 전력 소비량IND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc | ENE | 이용 | context | kW.h/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC |
최종 에너지 소비 중 재생에너지 비중IND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec | ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS |
GDP 1차 에너지 집약도IND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | MJ/[USD] | COUNTRY | SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD |
발전원 구성 집중도IND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
발전량 중 화석연료 비중IND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS |
1인당 재생에너지 설비 용량IND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc | ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | W/{person} | COUNTRY | SDG 7.b.1 |
물 의존 발전량, 비율IND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
순에너지 수입 의존도IND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS |
연료 수입액, 재화 및 서비스 수출 대비 비율IND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
원유 및 석유제품 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
천연가스 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
석탄 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
순수입 일수 기준 석유 비축량IND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | coping capacity | d | COUNTRY | |
일반적인 한 달 동안 기업이 겪는 정전 횟수IND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /mo | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG |
정전으로 인한 손실액, 기업 매출 대비 비율IND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss | ENE | Reliability | impact | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS |
계통 평균 정전 시간(SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | h/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
계통 평균 정전 빈도(SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
송배전 손실IND.ENE.reliability.td_losses | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS |
난방 및 냉방 도일IND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days | ENE | Reliability | hazard | K.d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
핵심 광물 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
핵심 광물 수입 중 최대 단일 공급처 비중IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY |
07인용
Energy security risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · ENE · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Energy security risk index, world
–
값은 판과 함께 게시되며, 구간, 등급, 변화가 여기에 표시됩니다.
- 이전 판
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- 결합 종합
- –
- 결합 점수 S
- –
- 동향, 최근 1주
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- 방법
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- 추출
- 1,000
Energy security risk index, world, by edition
아직 공개된 값이 없습니다. 첫 판에서 구간 띠와 등급 경계와 함께 이력이 여기에 그려집니다.
아프리카54
아메리카35
아시아48
유럽44
아직 변동이 없습니다. 두 번째 판부터는 이전 판 대비 변화가 이를 이끈 지표와 함께 여기에 표시됩니다.
08값
Country values
FIG 5 · Energy security risk index: countries (values when released)
지도를 불러오는 중
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- 타일
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/ene/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- 관측 키
nis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09시리즈
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-02Global EnergySupply adequacy, import dependency, grid reliability, affordability, extreme-weather exposure, critical minerals and transition pathways.→ SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction.→ SR-07Food, water and energyThe food–water–energy nexus: shared stressors, trade-offs and joint failures.→ XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps.→ TH-01Nexus InterdependencyThe water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems read together: drought to energy stress, energy disruption to health stress, biodiversity loss to food-system stress, flood to water contamination, heat to health and grid stress, cyber-physical disruption across all five.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 10 |
SDG | 5 |
ISO_37120 | 2 |
11Nexus 전반
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Nexus 전반
12인용
인용과 재사용
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Energy security risk index (GRX-IDX-ENE), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/energy-security-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000119.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
상태
Global Risks Index의 방법론, 구조, 정의는 검토와 의견 수렴을 위해 배포된 예비 작업 초안(2026)이며 이행용이 아닙니다. 관리되는 근거 마감에 따라 판이 공개되기 전까지는 어떠한 값도 표시되지 않으며, 공개 후 값에는 구간, 등급, 출처, 정정 경로가 함께 표시됩니다. 시뮬레이터는 귀하가 선택한 숫자에 공개된 방법을 적용할 뿐이며 NXS-GRX 값을 표시하지 않습니다.
NXS-GRX가 아닌 것
NXS-GRX는 연구 및 리스크 분석 정보입니다. 신용등급이나 ESG 등급이 아니며 등급 척도를 사용하지 않고, 금융상품의 벤치마크도, 공식 통계도, 긴급 경보나 공식 분류도, 자문도 아닙니다. 자연인 평가에 사용해서는 안 됩니다. 리스크 등급은 공개된 척도 위의 구간이며, 국가나 사람의 순위가 결코 아닙니다.
기관과 출처
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
모든 값에는 출처 표시가 함께 제공되며, 각 출처는 고유한 라이선스를 유지합니다. 외부 명칭은 상호운용성을 위해서만 인용됩니다. Nexus가 작성한 텍스트는 공개 시 CC BY 4.0 적용을 예정합니다.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.