The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ENE · VUL Human and systems vulnerability
Enerji güvenliği riski endeksi
Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
Page GRX-IDX-ENEEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
geometric
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
Belirsizlik
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Yapı
5 components
20 leaf indicators
Kapsam
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 25%
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01İnşaat
From indicators to the composite
Shows where an energy shock, from a supplier, a chokepoint, a grid failure or a mineral export control, would hit hardest; each sub-index stays visible beside the total.
computation
How Energy security risk is computedGraph28 nodes
Grafik
01Göstergeler
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Sütun
05Bileşik
100%
Dizin
- Elektriğe erişimi olan nüfusIndicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households with an electricity supply that can power at least basic lighting, whether from the grid, a mini-grid or a stand-alone system.
- Öncelikle temiz pişirme yakıtları ve teknolojilerine dayanan nüfusIndicator · IND · %Share of the population whose household cooks mainly with clean fuels and stoves (electricity, gas, biogas, ethanol, solar) rather than solid fuels or kerosene.
- Net enerji ithalatı bağımlılığıIndicator · IND · %Energy imports minus exports as a share of total energy supply, all fuels in energy units; negative values denote net exporters.
- Yakıt ithalatı faturası, mal ve hizmet ihracatının payıIndicator · IND · %Value of imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of total exports of goods and services in the same year.
- Ham petrol ve ürünleri ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIndicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import shares by country of origin for crude oil and refined oil products combined, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale; weighted by import dependence when used in composites.
- Doğal gaz ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIndicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of natural gas import shares by origin, counting pipeline gas and LNG cargoes together, on a 0–1 scale.
- Kömür ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIndicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of coal import shares (steam and metallurgical) by origin, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale.
- Net ithalat günü cinsinden petrol stoklarıIndicator · IND · dEmergency and commercial oil stocks held on national territory (or under bilateral agreement) divided by average daily net oil imports of the previous year, in days, following the IEA stockholding convention.
- Elektrik üretim karması yoğunlaşmasıIndicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of annual electricity generation shares across sources (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, bioenergy, other), on a 0–1 scale.
- Elektrik üretiminde fosil payıIndicator · IND · %Share of gross electricity generation produced from coal, oil and natural gas.
- GSYH'nin birincil enerji yoğunluğuIndicator · IND · MJ/USDTotal energy supply divided by GDP at ICP 2021 purchasing-power parities, in megajoules per international dollar.
- Toplam nihai enerji tüketiminde yenilenebilir payıIndicator · IND · %Share of final energy consumption met from renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern and traditional bioenergy, ocean), with traditional biomass reported as a separate disaggregation.
- Kişi başına kurulu yenilenebilir üretim kapasitesiIndicator · IND · W/personInstalled renewable electricity-generating capacity at year end divided by mid-year population, in watts per person.
- Firmaların tipik bir ayda yaşadığı elektrik kesintileriIndicator · IND · /moAverage number of electrical outages that formal private firms report in a typical month, from establishment surveys.
- Elektrik kesintileri nedeniyle kaybedilen değer, firma satışlarının payıIndicator · IND · %Losses that firms attribute to power outages as a percentage of annual sales, from establishment surveys.
- Sistem ortalama kesinti süresi (SAIDI)Indicator · IND · h/aTotal minutes of sustained supply interruption per customer served in the year, expressed in hours, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
- Sistem ortalama kesinti sıklığı (SAIFI)Indicator · IND · /aNumber of sustained supply interruptions per customer served in the year, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
- Elektrik iletim ve dağıtım kayıplarıIndicator · IND · %Electricity lost between generation and the consumer, technical and commercial, as a share of electricity output.
- Kritik mineral ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIndicator · IND · 1Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
- Kritik mineral ithalatında en büyük tek tedarikçinin payıIndicator · IND · %Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
- Energy access deficit sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).
- Fuel import dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.
- Energy mix rigidity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.
- Electricity supply unreliability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
- Critical-mineral dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
- Enerji güvenliği riski endeksiDomain index · IDX · geometricIndex of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- İnsan ve sistem kırılganlığıPillar · PILLAR · 8 indicesHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
ÇalıştırılmadıSürüyorTamamlandı
02Simülatör
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate energy security risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
tarayıcınızda çalışır
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03Yöntem
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- INFORM 0–10 rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 25% of weight
- Weighting
- uzman
- Aggregation
- geometric
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Belirsizlik
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; IEA energy security concept; INFORM risk algebra (geometric aggregation)
Çok düşük0.0 ile < 2.0 arası
Düşük2.0 ile < 3.5 arası
Orta3.5 ile < 5.0 arası
Yüksek5.0 ile < 6.5 arası
Çok yüksek6.5 ile 10.0
04Components
5 components, 20 indicators
Energy access deficit sub-index w 1
Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Elektriğe erişimi olan nüfusIND.ENE.access.electricity_access | % | Class B | wb-wdi, iea-sdg7-tracking, national-household-surveys | 66.7% |
Öncelikle temiz pişirme yakıtları ve teknolojilerine dayanan nüfusIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking | % | Class C | who-household-energy-database, wb-wdi | 33.3% |
Fuel import dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net enerji ithalatı bağımlılığıIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports | % | Class B | iea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-wdi | 30.8% |
Yakıt ithalatı faturası, mal ve hizmet ihracatının payıIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports | % | Class A | un-comtrade, imf-bop, wb-wdi | 15.4% |
Ham petrol ve ürünleri ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, iea-oil-information, jodi-oil | 15.4% |
Doğal gaz ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, iea-natural-gas-information, jodi-gas, giignl-lng-report | 15.4% |
Kömür ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, iea-coal-information | 7.7% |
Net ithalat günü cinsinden petrol stoklarıIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks | d | Class B | iea-oil-stocks-of-member-countries, eurostat-emergency-oil-stocks, jodi-oil | 15.4% |
Energy mix rigidity sub-index w 1
Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Elektrik üretim karması yoğunlaşmasıIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration | 1 | Class B | iea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, un-energy-statistics-database | 22.2% |
Elektrik üretiminde fosil payıIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share | % | Class B | iea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
GSYH'nin birincil enerji yoğunluğuIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity | MJ/[USD] | Class B | iea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-icp | 22.2% |
Toplam nihai enerji tüketiminde yenilenebilir payıIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec | % | Class B | iea-world-energy-balances, irena-renewable-energy-statistics, un-energy-statistics-database | 22.2% |
Kişi başına kurulu yenilenebilir üretim kapasitesiIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc | W/{person} | Class B | irena-renewable-capacity-statistics | 11.1% |
Electricity supply unreliability sub-index w 1
Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Firmaların tipik bir ayda yaşadığı elektrik kesintileriIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages | /mo | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys, wb-b-ready | 22.2% |
Elektrik kesintileri nedeniyle kaybedilen değer, firma satışlarının payıIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss | % | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys | 22.2% |
Sistem ortalama kesinti süresi (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi | h/a | Class B | wb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-861 | 22.2% |
Sistem ortalama kesinti sıklığı (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi | /a | Class B | wb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-861 | 22.2% |
Elektrik iletim ve dağıtım kayıplarıIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses | % | Class B | iea-electricity-information, national-energy-regulators, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 0.5
Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Kritik mineral ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | 1 | Class D | un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries | 50.0% |
Kritik mineral ithalatında en büyük tek tedarikçinin payıIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | % | Class D | un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer | 50.0% |
05Alan
Enerji
Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition.
| Sub-domain | Göstergeler |
|---|---|
| Erişim | 3 |
| Supply security and import dependence | 6 |
| Energy mix | 6 |
| Reliability | 6 |
| Kritik mineraller | 2 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IEA energy security; SDG 7; IRENA.
06Göstergeler
All 23 energy indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Gösterge | Alan | Sub-domain | Bileşen | Birim | Düzeyler | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elektriğe erişimi olan nüfusIND.ENE.access.electricity_access | ENE | Erişim | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS |
Öncelikle temiz pişirme yakıtları ve teknolojilerine dayanan nüfusIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking | ENE | Erişim | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
Kişi başına elektrik tüketimiIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc | ENE | Erişim | context | kW.h/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC |
Toplam nihai enerji tüketiminde yenilenebilir payıIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec | ENE | Energy mix | uyum kapasitesi | % | COUNTRY | SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS |
GSYH'nin birincil enerji yoğunluğuIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | MJ/[USD] | COUNTRY | SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD |
Elektrik üretim karması yoğunlaşmasıIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Elektrik üretiminde fosil payıIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS |
Kişi başına kurulu yenilenebilir üretim kapasitesiIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc | ENE | Energy mix | uyum kapasitesi | W/{person} | COUNTRY | SDG 7.b.1 |
Suya bağımlı elektrik üretimi, payIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
Net enerji ithalatı bağımlılığıIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | maruziyet | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS |
Yakıt ithalatı faturası, mal ve hizmet ihracatının payıIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Ham petrol ve ürünleri ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Doğal gaz ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Kömür ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Net ithalat günü cinsinden petrol stoklarıIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | başa çıkma kapasitesi | d | COUNTRY | |
Firmaların tipik bir ayda yaşadığı elektrik kesintileriIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /mo | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG |
Elektrik kesintileri nedeniyle kaybedilen değer, firma satışlarının payıIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss | ENE | Reliability | impact | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS |
Sistem ortalama kesinti süresi (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | h/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Sistem ortalama kesinti sıklığı (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Elektrik iletim ve dağıtım kayıplarıIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS |
Isıtma ve soğutma derece günleriIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days | ENE | Reliability | hazard | K.d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Kritik mineral ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | ENE | Kritik mineraller | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Kritik mineral ithalatında en büyük tek tedarikçinin payıIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | ENE | Kritik mineraller | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY |
07Gösterge değeri
Energy security risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · ENE · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Energy security risk index, world
–
Değerler baskıyla yayımlanır; aralık, sınıf ve değişim burada görünür.
- Önceki baskı
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Bağlantılı bileşik
- –
- Bağlantı puanı S
- –
- Pulse, son hafta
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Yöntem
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Çekilişler
- 1,000
Energy security risk index, world, by edition
Henüz yayımlanmış değer yok. İlk baskı, geçmişi burada aralık bandı ve sınıf sınırlarıyla çizer.
Afrika54
Amerika35
Asya48
Avrupa44
Henüz değişiklik yok. Önceki sürümden bu yana olan değişiklikler, ikinci sürümden itibaren bunlara yol açan göstergelerle birlikte burada listelenir.
08Değerler
Country values
FIG 5 · Energy security risk index: countries (values when released)
Harita yükleniyor
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- Döşemeler
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/ene/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Gözlem anahtarı
nis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Seriler
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-02Global EnergySupply adequacy, import dependency, grid reliability, affordability, extreme-weather exposure, critical minerals and transition pathways.→ SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction.→ SR-07Food, water and energyThe food–water–energy nexus: shared stressors, trade-offs and joint failures.→ XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps.→ TH-01Nexus InterdependencyThe water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems read together: drought to energy stress, energy disruption to health stress, biodiversity loss to food-system stress, flood to water contamination, heat to health and grid stress, cyber-physical disruption across all five.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 10 |
SDG | 5 |
ISO_37120 | 2 |
11Nexus genelinde
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Nexus genelinde
12Atıf
Atıf ve yeniden kullanım
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Energy security risk index (GRX-IDX-ENE), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/energy-security-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000119.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Durum
The Global Risks Index’in metodolojisi, yapısı ve tanımları, uygulama için değil, inceleme ve yorum için dolaşıma sunulmuş hazırlık niteliğinde bir çalışma taslağıdır (2026). Bir sürüm yönetilen bir kanıt kesitinden yayımlanana kadar hiçbir değer görünmez; değerler o zaman aralıkları, sınıfları, kaynakları ve düzeltme yollarını taşır. Simülatörler yayımlanan yöntemleri sizin seçtiğiniz sayılarla çalıştırır ve asla bir NXS-GRX değeri göstermez.
NXS-GRX ne değildir
NXS-GRX bir araştırma ve risk analitiği bilgisidir. Kredi ya da ESG derecelendirmesi değildir ve derecelendirme ölçeği kullanmaz; finansal araçlar için gösterge, resmî istatistik, acil durum uyarısı ya da resmî sınıflandırma ve tavsiye değildir. Gerçek kişileri değerlendirmek için kullanılmamalıdır. Risk sınıfları yayımlanmış bir ölçek üzerindeki bantlardır, asla ülkelerin ya da kişilerin sıralaması değildir.
Kurumlar ve kaynaklar
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Her değer, kendi lisanslarını koruyan kaynaklarının atfını taşır. Harici adlara yalnızca birlikte çalışabilirlik amacıyla atıf yapılır. Nexus tarafından yazılan metinlerin yayımlandığında CC BY 4.0 kapsamında olması amaçlanmaktadır.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.