Skip to content
⁨The Global Risks Index⁩
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ENE · VUL Human and systems vulnerability

شاخص ریسک امنیت انرژی

Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.

Page GRX-IDX-ENEEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

geometric

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

عدم قطعیت

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

ساختار

5 components

20 leaf indicators

پوشش

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 25%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Shows where an energy shock, from a supplier, a chokepoint, a grid failure or a mineral export control, would hit hardest; each sub-index stays visible beside the total.

computation
How Energy security risk is computed
Graph28 nodes
گراف
01شاخص‌ها
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04رکن
05ترکیبی
100%
نمایه
  1. جمعیت برخوردار از برق
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population living in households with an electricity supply that can power at least basic lighting, whether from the grid, a mini-grid or a stand-alone system.
  2. جمعیتی که عمدتاً به سوخت‌ها و فناوری‌های پاک پخت‌وپز متکی است
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population whose household cooks mainly with clean fuels and stoves (electricity, gas, biogas, ethanol, solar) rather than solid fuels or kerosene.
  3. وابستگی خالص به واردات انرژی
    Indicator · IND · %
    Energy imports minus exports as a share of total energy supply, all fuels in energy units; negative values denote net exporters.
  4. هزینهٔ واردات سوخت، سهم از صادرات کالاها و خدمات
    Indicator · IND · %
    Value of imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of total exports of goods and services in the same year.
  5. تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات نفت خام و فراورده‌ها
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import shares by country of origin for crude oil and refined oil products combined, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale; weighted by import dependence when used in composites.
  6. تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات گاز طبیعی
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of natural gas import shares by origin, counting pipeline gas and LNG cargoes together, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات زغال‌سنگ
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of coal import shares (steam and metallurgical) by origin, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. ذخایر نفت بر حسب روزهای واردات خالص
    Indicator · IND · d
    Emergency and commercial oil stocks held on national territory (or under bilateral agreement) divided by average daily net oil imports of the previous year, in days, following the IEA stockholding convention.
  9. تمرکز ترکیب تولید برق
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of annual electricity generation shares across sources (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, bioenergy, other), on a 0–1 scale.
  10. سهم سوخت‌های فسیلی در تولید برق
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of gross electricity generation produced from coal, oil and natural gas.
  11. شدت انرژی اولیهٔ GDP
    Indicator · IND · MJ/USD
    Total energy supply divided by GDP at ICP 2021 purchasing-power parities, in megajoules per international dollar.
  12. سهم تجدیدپذیرها از کل مصرف نهایی انرژی
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of final energy consumption met from renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern and traditional bioenergy, ocean), with traditional biomass reported as a separate disaggregation.
  13. ظرفیت نصب‌شدهٔ تولید تجدیدپذیر سرانه
    Indicator · IND · W/person
    Installed renewable electricity-generating capacity at year end divided by mid-year population, in watts per person.
  14. قطعی برق تجربه‌شده توسط شرکت‌ها در یک ماه معمول
    Indicator · IND · /mo
    Average number of electrical outages that formal private firms report in a typical month, from establishment surveys.
  15. ارزش ازدست‌رفته بر اثر قطعی برق، سهم از فروش شرکت
    Indicator · IND · %
    Losses that firms attribute to power outages as a percentage of annual sales, from establishment surveys.
  16. میانگین مدت قطعی سامانه (SAIDI)
    Indicator · IND · h/a
    Total minutes of sustained supply interruption per customer served in the year, expressed in hours, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
  17. میانگین دفعات قطعی سامانه (SAIFI)
    Indicator · IND · /a
    Number of sustained supply interruptions per customer served in the year, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
  18. تلفات انتقال و توزیع برق
    Indicator · IND · %
    Electricity lost between generation and the consumer, technical and commercial, as a share of electricity output.
  19. تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات کانی‌های حیاتی
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
  20. سهم بزرگ‌ترین تأمین‌کنندهٔ واحد در واردات کانی‌های حیاتی
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
  21. Energy access deficit sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).
  22. Fuel import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%
    Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.
  23. Energy mix rigidity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.
  24. Electricity supply unreliability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
  25. Critical-mineral dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%
    Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
  26. شاخص ریسک امنیت انرژی
    Domain index · IDX · geometric
    Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  27. آسیب‌پذیری انسانی و سامانه‌ای
    Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indices
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  28. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
اجرا نشدهدر حال انجامانجام شد
FIG 2. 20 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate energy security risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
در مرورگر شما اجرا می‌شود
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03روش

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
INFORM 0–10 rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
25% of weight
Weighting
کارشناس
Aggregation
geometric
Scale
0 to 10
عدم قطعیت
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; IEA energy security concept; INFORM risk algebra (geometric aggregation)
بسیار کم0.0 تا < 2.0
کم2.0 تا < 3.5
متوسط3.5 تا < 5.0
زیاد5.0 تا < 6.5
بسیار زیاد6.5 تا 10.0
04Components

5 components, 20 indicators

Energy access deficit sub-index w 1

Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
جمعیت برخوردار از برقIND.ENE.access.electricity_access%Class Bwb-wdi, iea-sdg7-tracking, national-household-surveys66.7%
جمعیتی که عمدتاً به سوخت‌ها و فناوری‌های پاک پخت‌وپز متکی استIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking%Class Cwho-household-energy-database, wb-wdi33.3%

Fuel import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
وابستگی خالص به واردات انرژیIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports%Class Biea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-wdi30.8%
هزینهٔ واردات سوخت، سهم از صادرات کالاها و خدماتIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports%Class Aun-comtrade, imf-bop, wb-wdi15.4%
تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات نفت خام و فراورده‌هاIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-oil-information, jodi-oil15.4%
تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات گاز طبیعیIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-natural-gas-information, jodi-gas, giignl-lng-report15.4%
تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات زغال‌سنگIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-coal-information7.7%
ذخایر نفت بر حسب روزهای واردات خالصIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocksdClass Biea-oil-stocks-of-member-countries, eurostat-emergency-oil-stocks, jodi-oil15.4%

Energy mix rigidity sub-index w 1

Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
تمرکز ترکیب تولید برقIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration1Class Biea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, un-energy-statistics-database22.2%
سهم سوخت‌های فسیلی در تولید برقIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share%Class Biea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, wb-wdi22.2%
شدت انرژی اولیهٔ GDPIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensityMJ/[USD]Class Biea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-icp22.2%
سهم تجدیدپذیرها از کل مصرف نهایی انرژیIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec%Class Biea-world-energy-balances, irena-renewable-energy-statistics, un-energy-statistics-database22.2%
ظرفیت نصب‌شدهٔ تولید تجدیدپذیر سرانهIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pcW/{person}Class Birena-renewable-capacity-statistics11.1%

Electricity supply unreliability sub-index w 1

Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
قطعی برق تجربه‌شده توسط شرکت‌ها در یک ماه معمولIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages/moClass Bwb-enterprise-surveys, wb-b-ready22.2%
ارزش ازدست‌رفته بر اثر قطعی برق، سهم از فروش شرکتIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss%Class Bwb-enterprise-surveys22.2%
میانگین مدت قطعی سامانه (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidih/aClass Bwb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-86122.2%
میانگین دفعات قطعی سامانه (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi/aClass Bwb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-86122.2%
تلفات انتقال و توزیع برقIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses%Class Biea-electricity-information, national-energy-regulators, wb-wdi11.1%

Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 0.5

Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات کانی‌های حیاتیIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration1Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries50.0%
سهم بزرگ‌ترین تأمین‌کنندهٔ واحد در واردات کانی‌های حیاتیIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share%Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer50.0%
05حوزه

انرژی

Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition.

Sub-domainشاخص‌ها
دسترسی3
Supply security and import dependence6
Energy mix6
Reliability6
Critical minerals2

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IEA energy security; SDG 7; IRENA.

06شاخص‌ها

All 23 energy indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ENE · 23
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
نشانگرحوزهSub-domainجزءواحدسطوحCrosswalks
جمعیت برخوردار از برقIND.ENE.access.electricity_accessENEدسترسیvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
جمعیتی که عمدتاً به سوخت‌ها و فناوری‌های پاک پخت‌وپز متکی استIND.ENE.access.clean_cookingENEدسترسیvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
مصرف برق سرانهIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pcENEدسترسیcontextkW.h/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
سهم تجدیدپذیرها از کل مصرف نهایی انرژیIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfecENEEnergy mixadaptive capacity%COUNTRYSDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
شدت انرژی اولیهٔ GDPIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensityENEEnergy mixvulnerabilityMJ/[USD]COUNTRYSDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
تمرکز ترکیب تولید برقIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentrationENEEnergy mixvulnerability1COUNTRY
سهم سوخت‌های فسیلی در تولید برقIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_shareENEEnergy mixvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
ظرفیت نصب‌شدهٔ تولید تجدیدپذیر سرانهIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pcENEEnergy mixadaptive capacityW/{person}COUNTRYSDG 7.b.1
تولید برق وابسته به آب، سهمIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.shareENEEnergy mixvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1
وابستگی خالص به واردات انرژیIND.ENE.security.net_energy_importsENESupply security and import dependenceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
هزینهٔ واردات سوخت، سهم از صادرات کالاها و خدماتIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exportsENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات نفت خام و فراورده‌هاIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات گاز طبیعیIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات زغال‌سنگIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
ذخایر نفت بر حسب روزهای واردات خالصIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocksENESupply security and import dependencecoping capacitydCOUNTRY
قطعی برق تجربه‌شده توسط شرکت‌ها در یک ماه معمولIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outagesENEReliabilityvulnerability/moCOUNTRYWB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
ارزش ازدست‌رفته بر اثر قطعی برق، سهم از فروش شرکتIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_lossENEReliabilityimpact%COUNTRYWB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
میانگین مدت قطعی سامانه (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidiENEReliabilityvulnerabilityh/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
میانگین دفعات قطعی سامانه (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifiENEReliabilityvulnerability/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
تلفات انتقال و توزیع برقIND.ENE.reliability.td_lossesENEReliabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
درجه‌روزهای گرمایش و سرمایشIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_daysENEReliabilityhazardK.d/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات کانی‌های حیاتیIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentrationENECritical mineralsvulnerability1COUNTRY
سهم بزرگ‌ترین تأمین‌کنندهٔ واحد در واردات کانی‌های حیاتیIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_shareENECritical mineralsvulnerability%COUNTRY
07Quote

Energy security risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ENE · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Energy security risk index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Previous edition
–
Range since 2016
–
Coupled composite
–
Coupling score S
–
Pulse, latest week
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
روش
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Draws
1,000
Energy security risk index, world, by edition

No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
هنوز هیچ جابه‌جایی‌ای نیست. از ویراست دوم به بعد، تغییرات نسبت به ویراست پیشین همراه با نشانگرهایی که آن‌ها را رقم زده‌اند در اینجا فهرست می‌شوند.
08مقادیر

Country values

FIG 5 · Energy security risk index: countries (values when released)
در حال بارگذاری نقشه
آندوراآنتیگوا و باربودابحرینباربادوسکومورکیپ ورددومینیکامیکرونزی (ایالات فدرال)گرناداکیریباتیسنت کیتس و نویسسنت لوسیالیختن‌اشتاینموناکومالدیوجزایر مارشالمالتموریسنائوروپالائوسنگاپورسان مارینوسائوتومه و پرنسیپسیشلتونگاتووالوواتیکانسنت وینسنت و گرنادین‌هاساموآ
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/ene/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
راهنمای مشاهدات
nis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI10
SDG5
ISO_371202
11Across the Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12استناد

استناد و استفادهٔ دوباره

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Energy security risk index (GRX-IDX-ENE), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/energy-security-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000119.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.