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The Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ENE · VUL Human and systems vulnerability

Índice de risco de segurança energética

Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.

Page GRX-IDX-ENEEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

geometric

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Incerteza

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

Estrutura

5 components

20 leaf indicators

Cobertura

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 25%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Shows where an energy shock, from a supplier, a chokepoint, a grid failure or a mineral export control, would hit hardest; each sub-index stays visible beside the total.

computation
How Energy security risk is computed
Graph28 nodes
Grafo
01Indicadores
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilar
05Composto
100%
Índice
  1. População com acesso à eletricidade
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population living in households with an electricity supply that can power at least basic lighting, whether from the grid, a mini-grid or a stand-alone system.
  2. População que depende principalmente de combustíveis e tecnologias limpos para cozinhar
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population whose household cooks mainly with clean fuels and stoves (electricity, gas, biogas, ethanol, solar) rather than solid fuels or kerosene.
  3. Dependência líquida de importações de energia
    Indicator · IND · %
    Energy imports minus exports as a share of total energy supply, all fuels in energy units; negative values denote net exporters.
  4. Fatura das importações de combustíveis, em % das exportações de bens e serviços
    Indicator · IND · %
    Value of imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of total exports of goods and services in the same year.
  5. Concentração de fornecedores de importações de petróleo bruto e derivados
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import shares by country of origin for crude oil and refined oil products combined, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale; weighted by import dependence when used in composites.
  6. Concentração de fornecedores de importações de gás natural
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of natural gas import shares by origin, counting pipeline gas and LNG cargoes together, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. Concentração de fornecedores de importações de carvão
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of coal import shares (steam and metallurgical) by origin, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. Estoques de petróleo em dias de importações líquidas
    Indicator · IND · d
    Emergency and commercial oil stocks held on national territory (or under bilateral agreement) divided by average daily net oil imports of the previous year, in days, following the IEA stockholding convention.
  9. Concentração da matriz de geração elétrica
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of annual electricity generation shares across sources (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, bioenergy, other), on a 0–1 scale.
  10. Parcela fóssil da geração de eletricidade
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of gross electricity generation produced from coal, oil and natural gas.
  11. Intensidade energética primária do PIB
    Indicator · IND · MJ/USD
    Total energy supply divided by GDP at ICP 2021 purchasing-power parities, in megajoules per international dollar.
  12. Parcela renovável do consumo final total de energia
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of final energy consumption met from renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern and traditional bioenergy, ocean), with traditional biomass reported as a separate disaggregation.
  13. Capacidade instalada de geração renovável per capita
    Indicator · IND · W/person
    Installed renewable electricity-generating capacity at year end divided by mid-year population, in watts per person.
  14. Cortes de energia sofridos pelas empresas num mês típico
    Indicator · IND · /mo
    Average number of electrical outages that formal private firms report in a typical month, from establishment surveys.
  15. Valor perdido com cortes de energia, em % das vendas das empresas
    Indicator · IND · %
    Losses that firms attribute to power outages as a percentage of annual sales, from establishment surveys.
  16. Duração média das interrupções do sistema (SAIDI)
    Indicator · IND · h/a
    Total minutes of sustained supply interruption per customer served in the year, expressed in hours, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
  17. Frequência média das interrupções do sistema (SAIFI)
    Indicator · IND · /a
    Number of sustained supply interruptions per customer served in the year, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
  18. Perdas na transmissão e distribuição de energia elétrica
    Indicator · IND · %
    Electricity lost between generation and the consumer, technical and commercial, as a share of electricity output.
  19. Concentração de fornecedores de importações de minerais críticos
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
  20. Parcela do maior fornecedor nas importações de minerais críticos
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
  21. Energy access deficit sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).
  22. Fuel import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%
    Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.
  23. Energy mix rigidity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.
  24. Electricity supply unreliability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
  25. Critical-mineral dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%
    Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
  26. Índice de risco de segurança energética
    Domain index · IDX · geometric
    Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  27. Vulnerabilidade humana e dos sistemas
    Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indices
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  28. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Não executadoEm cursoConcluído
FIG 2. 20 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate energy security risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
funciona no seu navegador
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Método

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
INFORM 0–10 rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
25% of weight
Weighting
especialista
Aggregation
geometric
Scale
0 to 10
Incerteza
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; IEA energy security concept; INFORM risk algebra (geometric aggregation)
Muito baixo0.0 a < 2.0
Baixo2.0 a < 3.5
Médio3.5 a < 5.0
Alto5.0 a < 6.5
Muito alto6.5 a 10.0
04Components

5 components, 20 indicators

Energy access deficit sub-index w 1

Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
População com acesso à eletricidadeIND.ENE.access.electricity_access%Class Bwb-wdi, iea-sdg7-tracking, national-household-surveys66.7%
População que depende principalmente de combustíveis e tecnologias limpos para cozinharIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking%Class Cwho-household-energy-database, wb-wdi33.3%

Fuel import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Dependência líquida de importações de energiaIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports%Class Biea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-wdi30.8%
Fatura das importações de combustíveis, em % das exportações de bens e serviçosIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports%Class Aun-comtrade, imf-bop, wb-wdi15.4%
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de petróleo bruto e derivadosIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-oil-information, jodi-oil15.4%
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de gás naturalIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-natural-gas-information, jodi-gas, giignl-lng-report15.4%
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de carvãoIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-coal-information7.7%
Estoques de petróleo em dias de importações líquidasIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocksdClass Biea-oil-stocks-of-member-countries, eurostat-emergency-oil-stocks, jodi-oil15.4%

Energy mix rigidity sub-index w 1

Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Concentração da matriz de geração elétricaIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration1Class Biea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, un-energy-statistics-database22.2%
Parcela fóssil da geração de eletricidadeIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share%Class Biea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, wb-wdi22.2%
Intensidade energética primária do PIBIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensityMJ/[USD]Class Biea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-icp22.2%
Parcela renovável do consumo final total de energiaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec%Class Biea-world-energy-balances, irena-renewable-energy-statistics, un-energy-statistics-database22.2%
Capacidade instalada de geração renovável per capitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pcW/{person}Class Birena-renewable-capacity-statistics11.1%

Electricity supply unreliability sub-index w 1

Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Cortes de energia sofridos pelas empresas num mês típicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages/moClass Bwb-enterprise-surveys, wb-b-ready22.2%
Valor perdido com cortes de energia, em % das vendas das empresasIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss%Class Bwb-enterprise-surveys22.2%
Duração média das interrupções do sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidih/aClass Bwb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-86122.2%
Frequência média das interrupções do sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi/aClass Bwb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-86122.2%
Perdas na transmissão e distribuição de energia elétricaIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses%Class Biea-electricity-information, national-energy-regulators, wb-wdi11.1%

Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 0.5

Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de minerais críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration1Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries50.0%
Parcela do maior fornecedor nas importações de minerais críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share%Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer50.0%
05Domínio

Energia

Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition.

Sub-domainIndicadores
Acesso3
Supply security and import dependence6
Energy mix6
Reliability6
Critical minerals2

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IEA energy security; SDG 7; IRENA.

06Indicadores

All 23 energy indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ENE · 23
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndicadorDomínioSub-domainComponenteUnidadeNíveisCrosswalks
População com acesso à eletricidadeIND.ENE.access.electricity_accessENEAcessovulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
População que depende principalmente de combustíveis e tecnologias limpos para cozinharIND.ENE.access.clean_cookingENEAcessovulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
Consumo de eletricidade per capitaIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pcENEAcessocontextkW.h/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
Parcela renovável do consumo final total de energiaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfecENEEnergy mixadaptive capacity%COUNTRYSDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Intensidade energética primária do PIBIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensityENEEnergy mixvulnerabilityMJ/[USD]COUNTRYSDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Concentração da matriz de geração elétricaIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentrationENEEnergy mixvulnerability1COUNTRY
Parcela fóssil da geração de eletricidadeIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_shareENEEnergy mixvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Capacidade instalada de geração renovável per capitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pcENEEnergy mixadaptive capacityW/{person}COUNTRYSDG 7.b.1
Geração de eletricidade dependente de água, em %IND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.shareENEEnergy mixvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1
Dependência líquida de importações de energiaIND.ENE.security.net_energy_importsENESupply security and import dependenceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
Fatura das importações de combustíveis, em % das exportações de bens e serviçosIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exportsENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de petróleo bruto e derivadosIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de gás naturalIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de carvãoIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Estoques de petróleo em dias de importações líquidasIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocksENESupply security and import dependencecoping capacitydCOUNTRY
Cortes de energia sofridos pelas empresas num mês típicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outagesENEReliabilityvulnerability/moCOUNTRYWB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Valor perdido com cortes de energia, em % das vendas das empresasIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_lossENEReliabilityimpact%COUNTRYWB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
Duração média das interrupções do sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidiENEReliabilityvulnerabilityh/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Frequência média das interrupções do sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifiENEReliabilityvulnerability/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Perdas na transmissão e distribuição de energia elétricaIND.ENE.reliability.td_lossesENEReliabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
Graus-dia de aquecimento e resfriamentoIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_daysENEReliabilityhazardK.d/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de minerais críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentrationENECritical mineralsvulnerability1COUNTRY
Parcela do maior fornecedor nas importações de minerais críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_shareENECritical mineralsvulnerability%COUNTRY
07Cotação

Energy security risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ENE · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Energy security risk index, world
–
Os valores são publicados com a edição; o intervalo, a classe e a variação aparecem aqui.
Edição anterior
–
Range since 2016
–
Composto acoplado
–
Pontuação de acoplamento S
–
Pulse, última semana
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Método
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Sorteios
1,000
Energy security risk index, world, by edition

Ainda não há valores publicados. A primeira edição traça aqui o histórico com a faixa do intervalo e os limites de classe.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Ainda não há variações. As alterações desde a edição anterior serão listadas aqui a partir da segunda edição, com os indicadores que as motivaram.
08Valores

Country values

FIG 5 · Energy security risk index: countries (values when released)
Carregando o mapa
AndorraAntígua e BarbudaBahreinBarbadosComoresCabo VerdeDominicaMicronésia (Estados Federados da)GranadaQuiribátiSão Cristóvão e NévisSanta LúciaListenstaineMônacoMaldivasIlhas MarshallMaltaMaurícioNauruPalauSingapuraSan MarinoSão Tomé e PríncipeSeichelesTongaTuvaluSanta SéSão Vicente e GranadinasSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Blocos
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/ene/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Chave de observação
nis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI10
SDG5
ISO_371202
11Em todo o Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Citar

Citar e reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Energy security risk index (GRX-IDX-ENE), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/energy-security-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000119.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.