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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Governance

Stewarded in the open

Three independent stewards, a published review path, a public correction log and a right of reply for every country.

Review and release
Página GRX-GOVEdição Edição de referência 2026Fecho das evidências 2026-09-30Valores ainda não publicadosMétodo v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Lifecycle of a value
RascunhoCalculadoVinculado a evidênciasRevisadoAprovado para publicaçãoPublicadoCorrigidoSubstituído
3
independent stewards
8
lifecycle states
195
rights of reply
1
public correction log

01Guardiões

Three independent stewards

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Evidências e métodos

GCRI Canada

Evidências, métodos, ontologia de risco, disciplina de dados, registros verificáveis e correção.

Liderança e o programa anual

The Global Risks Forum

Liderança, diálogo institucional e a gestão do Nexus Universe. Registra os pontos de controle do programa, de G0 a G7.

Prontidão financeira

The Global Risks Alliance

Prontidão para finanças, seguros e desenvolvimento. As evidências de risco tornam-se material de diligência, nunca uma aprovação ou uma transação.

02Análise

Review and release

Each edition passes method review, data and licence review, the public-safe screen and steward review; an independent statistical audit reviews each major methodology version.

RascunhoCalculadoVinculado a evidênciasRevisadoAprovado para publicaçãoPublicadoCorrigidoSubstituído
03Release run

Review gates in the release workflow

The audit and steward gates hold the run until the named reviewers record a disposition.

on: evidence cut

Edition release: review gates

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

Grafo
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04Indicadores
05Índices
06Índices
07Índices
08Incerteza
09Incerteza
10Análise
11Análise
12Publicar

100%
Linha do tempo
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Etapas
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    Serviço de execução NXS-GRXRegistro PostgreSQL (segurança em nível de linha)
  2. Controle de licença

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    Registro de licenças
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    Serviço de execução NXS-GRXpadrão de indicadores
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    Serviço de execução NXS-GRXpadrão de indicadores
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    Serviço de execução NXS-GRXNúcleos de modelos testados
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Vinte índices temáticos
    Serviço de execução NXS-GRXNúcleos de modelos testados
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    Rede de dependênciasNúcleos de modelos testados
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    Motor Monte Carlo
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    Motor Monte Carlo
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    Núcleos de modelos testados
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    Registro PostgreSQL (segurança em nível de linha)
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    Blocos vetoriaisDepósito no Zenodo
Artefatos
Artefato Tarefa Quem Etapa
Cut record Evidence cut frozen Serviço de execução NXS-GRX Cut
Withheld counts Controle de licença Registro de licenças Ingest
HAR series Harmonise Serviço de execução NXS-GRX Ingest
IND values Indicadores Serviço de execução NXS-GRX Indicadores
SUB values Sub-indices Serviço de execução NXS-GRX Índices
IDX values Índices de domínio Serviço de execução NXS-GRX Índices
S per country Coupling score Serviço de execução NXS-GRX Índices
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws Motor Monte Carlo Incerteza
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol Motor Monte Carlo Incerteza
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer Análise
Release decision Steward review Guardiões Análise
Edição Profiles and series Foundry Publicar
Blocos Tiles and bulk files Foundry Publicar
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry Publicar
ConcluídoEm cursoAguardando aprovaçãoNa filaEtapa de controle de aprovaçãoTarefa matricialVocê está aqui
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
04Integridade

Integrity rules

Declared interests

Conflict-of-interest declarations for every reviewer and contributor of values.

No outside edits

No party, funder or provider can change a value outside the published method and correction process.

Direito de resposta

Country right of reply and a public correction log.

Do no harm

Sensitive outputs (conflict, famine, biosecurity) pass a do-no-harm screen; publication can be delayed or generalised where detail could cause harm.

Replication

Methods, seeds and digests published for replication.

05Limites

Informação, não autoridade

NXS-GRX makes risk visible without making it officially rated; makes disaster risk reduction actionable for learning without issuing commands; makes disaster risk finance questions readable without creating finance or insurance execution; makes intelligence useful without creating public warnings; and makes frontier technology risks structured without certifying anything.

06Benchmark

Benchmark principles, applied voluntarily

The index is not a regulated financial benchmark. It applies the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks (2013) voluntarily, because people use risk indices to make financial decisions.

Área Principle How the index meets it Situação
Governança 1 · Overall responsibility The three stewards hold responsibility for every stage, from evidence cut to correction; GCRI acts as Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat. In place
Governança 2 · Oversight of third parties Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm’s length and cannot change a value outside the published method. In place
Governança 3 · Conflicts of interest Reviewers and contributors declare interests; funders and providers have no role in determinations. A public register of declarations opens with the first edition. Designed
Governança 4 · Control framework Each edition runs as a workflow with method, data, licence, public-safe and steward gates that hold the run until a named reviewer records a disposition. In place
Governança 5 · Internal oversight Steward review of every edition; an independent statistical audit of each major method version, its auditor to be appointed. Stewards to decide
Quality of the index 6 · Design The method documents what each index measures, its polarity, aggregation and limits, with intervals instead of league tables. In place
Quality of the index 7 · Data sufficiency Coverage thresholds per value, imputation flagged and capped, withheld values counted and stated. In place
Quality of the index 8 · Hierarchy of inputs Registered sources only, each admitted on its own licence; official statistics first, then peer-reviewed and open research products, each labelled. In place
Quality of the index 9 · Transparency of determinations Every value opens to its indicators, sources, method version and correction log. In place
Quality of the index 10 · Periodic review An annual method review with an open consultation; every comment receives a disposition. Designed
Quality of the method 11 · Content of the method The full method is published: construction steps, aggregation, imputation, classes, uncertainty and validation. In place
Quality of the method 12 · Changes to the method Proposal, public consultation of at least 30 days, disposition, semantic version and notice before the change takes effect. Designed
Quality of the method 13 · Transition and cessation A discontinued indicator or series is announced with its replacement, overlap period and back-cast where inputs allow. Designed
Quality of the method 14 · Contributor code of conduct Contributions arrive through structured forms with licence, provenance and declarations; contributors keep their rights. In place
Quality of the method 15 · Controls over data collection Licence gate, provenance on every record, frozen inputs per vintage and build checks that fail on drift. In place
Prestação de contas 16 · Complaints Right of reply and correction requests through a public form, acknowledged, reviewed and published with their effect on any value. In place
Prestação de contas 17 · Audits External audit of the method and its application, scope and auditor to be decided by the stewards. Stewards to decide
Prestação de contas 18 · Audit trail Vintages, provenance, the release workflow record and the correction log are kept for every edition. In place
Prestação de contas 19 · Cooperation with authorities The index is not a regulated benchmark; records are available to competent authorities on request. In place
07Políticas

Policies a user of the index can rely on

Conflicts

Conflicts of interest

Every reviewer, contributor of values and working-group member declares funding, employment and holdings. A declared conflict excludes that person from the determination it touches.

Reclamações

Complaints and right of reply

Anyone can ask for a correction, and a national authority can file a reply, through the form on this page. Each request is acknowledged, reviewed in public and published with its outcome.

Revisions

Revisions and restatements

Values are never revised silently. A correction creates a new vintage, states what changed and why, and keeps the earlier vintage retrievable.

Mudanças

Method changes

A change is proposed, consulted on for at least 30 days, answered, versioned and announced before it takes effect, with a back-cast where inputs allow.

Cessation

Transition and cessation

An indicator or series that has to stop is announced with its replacement and an overlap period, so users can move without a break.

Usar

Use in decisions and contracts

The index informs judgement; it is not investment advice and not intended as a reference rate in contracts. Users remain responsible for how they use it.

08AI

Uso de IA

AI assists drafting, coding and quality checks; every published value is computed by declared kernels from governed inputs, and AI-assisted text is reviewed and disclosed. No value is generated by a language model.

Formulário

Right of reply and correction request

A national authority, institution or person concerned asks for a correction or files a reply; it is reviewed in public and recorded with its effect on any value.

  1. 01PreencherOs campos marcados (obrigatório) são necessários; todo o resto ajuda na análise.
  2. 02ReferênciaVocê recebe uma referência na tela; o registro fica guardado no banco de dados WordPress deste site.
  3. 03AnáliseO resultado é registrado publicamente. Os dados de contato permanecem neste site e nunca são publicados nem compartilhados.
Form · grx-reply

Este formulário abrirá aqui assim que for ativado. Até lá, envie-o pelo gateway Nexus Reports.

Comunicar um erro

Every correction is reviewed in public and logged with its effect on each value.

Send a correction

Situação

A metodologia, a estrutura e as definições do The Global Risks Index constituem um projeto de trabalho preparatório (2026), divulgado para revisão e comentários e não para implementação. Nenhum valor aparece até que uma edição seja publicada a partir de um corte de evidências governado; os valores passam então a ter intervalos, classes, fontes e o respectivo percurso de correção. Os simuladores executam os métodos publicados sobre números que você escolhe e nunca mostram um valor do NXS-GRX.

O que o NXS-GRX não é

O NXS-GRX é informação de pesquisa e de análise de risco. Não é rating de crédito ou ESG e não usa escala de rating, não é referência para instrumentos financeiros, não é estatística oficial, não é alerta de emergência nem classificação oficial e não é aconselhamento. Não deve ser usado para avaliar pessoas físicas. As classes de risco são faixas em uma escala publicada, nunca classificações de países ou pessoas.

Instituições e fontes

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Cada valor inclui a atribuição das suas fontes, que mantêm as suas próprias licenças. Os nomes externos são citados apenas para fins de interoperabilidade. Os textos de autoria da Nexus destinam-se a ser publicados sob CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.