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Глобальный индекс рисков (Global Risks Index)

The Global Risks Index · Governance

Stewarded in the open

Three independent stewards, a published review path, a public correction log and a right of reply for every country.

Review and release
Страница GRX-GOVВыпуск Базовый выпуск 2026Дата закрытия доказательной базы 2026-09-30Значения пока не опубликованыМетод v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Lifecycle of a value
ПроектРассчитаноПривязано к доказательной базеРассмотреноОдобрено к выпускуОпубликованоИсправленоЗаменено
3
independent stewards
8
lifecycle states
195
rights of reply
1
public correction log

01Управляющие

Three independent stewards

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Доказательная база и методы

GCRI Canada

Доказательная база, методы, онтология риска, дисциплина данных, проверяемые записи и исправление.

Лидерство и годовая программа

Глобальный форум по рискам (Global Risks Forum)

Лидерство, институциональный диалог, ведение и сопровождение Nexus Universe. Фиксирует контрольные точки программы G0–G7.

Финансовая готовность

Глобальный альянс по рискам (Global Risks Alliance)

Готовность в области финансов, страхования и развития. Доказательная база по риску становится материалом для проверки, но никогда не одобрением или сделкой.

02Рецензирование

Review and release

Each edition passes method review, data and licence review, the public-safe screen and steward review; an independent statistical audit reviews each major methodology version.

ПроектРассчитаноПривязано к доказательной базеРассмотреноОдобрено к выпускуОпубликованоИсправленоЗаменено
03Release run

Review gates in the release workflow

The audit and steward gates hold the run until the named reviewers record a disposition.

on: evidence cut

Edition release: review gates

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

Граф
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04Индикаторы
05Индексы
06Индексы
07Индексы
08Неопределённость
09Неопределённость
10Рецензирование
11Рецензирование
12Опубликовать

100%
Хронология
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Шаги
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    Служба прогонов NXS-GRXРеестр PostgreSQL (защита на уровне строк)
  2. Лицензионный фильтр

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    Реестр лицензий
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    Служба прогонов NXS-GRXстандарт показателей
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    Служба прогонов NXS-GRXстандарт показателей
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    Служба прогонов NXS-GRXПроверенные ядра моделей
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Двадцать доменных индексов
    Служба прогонов NXS-GRXПроверенные ядра моделей
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    Сеть зависимостейПроверенные ядра моделей
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    Движок Монте-Карло
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    Движок Монте-Карло
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    Проверенные ядра моделей
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    Реестр PostgreSQL (защита на уровне строк)
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    Vector tilesZenodo deposit
Артефакты
Артефакт Задание Кто Этап
Cut record Evidence cut frozen Служба прогонов NXS-GRX Cut
Withheld counts Лицензионный фильтр Реестр лицензий Ingest
HAR series Harmonise Служба прогонов NXS-GRX Ingest
IND values Индикаторы Служба прогонов NXS-GRX Индикаторы
SUB values Sub-indices Служба прогонов NXS-GRX Индексы
IDX values Доменные индексы Служба прогонов NXS-GRX Индексы
S per country Coupling score Служба прогонов NXS-GRX Индексы
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws Движок Монте-Карло Неопределённость
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol Движок Монте-Карло Неопределённость
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer Рецензирование
Release decision Steward review Управляющие Рецензирование
Выпуск Profiles and series Foundry Опубликовать
Тайлы Tiles and bulk files Foundry Опубликовать
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry Опубликовать
ГотовоВыполняетсяОжидает утвержденияВ очередиТочка утвержденияЗадача матрицыВы здесь
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
04Добросовестность

Integrity rules

Declared interests

Conflict-of-interest declarations for every reviewer and contributor of values.

No outside edits

No party, funder or provider can change a value outside the published method and correction process.

Право на ответ

Country right of reply and a public correction log.

Do no harm

Sensitive outputs (conflict, famine, biosecurity) pass a do-no-harm screen; publication can be delayed or generalised where detail could cause harm.

Replication

Methods, seeds and digests published for replication.

05Границы

Информация, а не предписание

NXS-GRX makes risk visible without making it officially rated; makes disaster risk reduction actionable for learning without issuing commands; makes disaster risk finance questions readable without creating finance or insurance execution; makes intelligence useful without creating public warnings; and makes frontier technology risks structured without certifying anything.

06Benchmark

Benchmark principles, applied voluntarily

The index is not a regulated financial benchmark. It applies the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks (2013) voluntarily, because people use risk indices to make financial decisions.

Площадь Principle How the index meets it Статус
Управление 1 · Overall responsibility The three stewards hold responsibility for every stage, from evidence cut to correction; GCRI acts as Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat. In place
Управление 2 · Oversight of third parties Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm’s length and cannot change a value outside the published method. In place
Управление 3 · Conflicts of interest Reviewers and contributors declare interests; funders and providers have no role in determinations. A public register of declarations opens with the first edition. Designed
Управление 4 · Control framework Each edition runs as a workflow with method, data, licence, public-safe and steward gates that hold the run until a named reviewer records a disposition. In place
Управление 5 · Internal oversight Steward review of every edition; an independent statistical audit of each major method version, its auditor to be appointed. Stewards to decide
Quality of the index 6 · Design The method documents what each index measures, its polarity, aggregation and limits, with intervals instead of league tables. In place
Quality of the index 7 · Data sufficiency Coverage thresholds per value, imputation flagged and capped, withheld values counted and stated. In place
Quality of the index 8 · Hierarchy of inputs Registered sources only, each admitted on its own licence; official statistics first, then peer-reviewed and open research products, each labelled. In place
Quality of the index 9 · Transparency of determinations Every value opens to its indicators, sources, method version and correction log. In place
Quality of the index 10 · Periodic review An annual method review with an open consultation; every comment receives a disposition. Designed
Quality of the method 11 · Content of the method The full method is published: construction steps, aggregation, imputation, classes, uncertainty and validation. In place
Quality of the method 12 · Changes to the method Proposal, public consultation of at least 30 days, disposition, semantic version and notice before the change takes effect. Designed
Quality of the method 13 · Transition and cessation A discontinued indicator or series is announced with its replacement, overlap period and back-cast where inputs allow. Designed
Quality of the method 14 · Contributor code of conduct Contributions arrive through structured forms with licence, provenance and declarations; contributors keep their rights. In place
Quality of the method 15 · Controls over data collection Licence gate, provenance on every record, frozen inputs per vintage and build checks that fail on drift. In place
Подотчётность 16 · Complaints Right of reply and correction requests through a public form, acknowledged, reviewed and published with their effect on any value. In place
Подотчётность 17 · Audits External audit of the method and its application, scope and auditor to be decided by the stewards. Stewards to decide
Подотчётность 18 · Audit trail Vintages, provenance, the release workflow record and the correction log are kept for every edition. In place
Подотчётность 19 · Cooperation with authorities The index is not a regulated benchmark; records are available to competent authorities on request. In place
07Политики

Policies a user of the index can rely on

Conflicts

Conflicts of interest

Every reviewer, contributor of values and working-group member declares funding, employment and holdings. A declared conflict excludes that person from the determination it touches.

Жалобы

Complaints and right of reply

Anyone can ask for a correction, and a national authority can file a reply, through the form on this page. Each request is acknowledged, reviewed in public and published with its outcome.

Revisions

Revisions and restatements

Values are never revised silently. A correction creates a new vintage, states what changed and why, and keeps the earlier vintage retrievable.

Изменения

Method changes

A change is proposed, consulted on for at least 30 days, answered, versioned and announced before it takes effect, with a back-cast where inputs allow.

Cessation

Transition and cessation

An indicator or series that has to stop is announced with its replacement and an overlap period, so users can move without a break.

Использовать

Use in decisions and contracts

The index informs judgement; it is not investment advice and not intended as a reference rate in contracts. Users remain responsible for how they use it.

08AI

Использование ИИ

AI assists drafting, coding and quality checks; every published value is computed by declared kernels from governed inputs, and AI-assisted text is reviewed and disclosed. No value is generated by a language model.

Форма

Right of reply and correction request

A national authority, institution or person concerned asks for a correction or files a reply; it is reviewed in public and recorded with its effect on any value.

  1. 01ЗаполнитьПоля с пометкой (обязательно) нужно заполнить; всё остальное помогает при рассмотрении.
  2. 02СсылкаВы получите номер обращения на экране; запись хранится в базе данных WordPress этого сайта.
  3. 03РецензированиеРешение фиксируется публично. Контактные данные остаются на этом сайте и никогда не публикуются и не передаются.
Form · grx-reply

Эта форма откроется здесь, как только будет включена. До тех пор отправьте обращение через шлюз Nexus Reports.

Сообщить об ошибке

Every correction is reviewed in public and logged with its effect on each value.

Send a correction

Статус

Методология, структура и определения The Global Risks Index представляют собой предварительный рабочий проект (2026), распространяемый для рассмотрения и комментариев, а не для применения. Значения не появляются, пока выпуск не будет опубликован на основе управляемого среза доказательной базы; тогда значения сопровождаются интервалами, классами, источниками и порядком их исправления. Симуляторы применяют опубликованные методы к выбранным вами числам и никогда не показывают значение NXS-GRX.

Чем NXS-GRX не является

NXS-GRX является исследовательской и риск-аналитической информацией. Это не кредитный и не ESG-рейтинг, и в нём не используется рейтинговая шкала; это не эталон для финансовых инструментов, не официальная статистика, не экстренное предупреждение или официальная классификация и не консультация. Его нельзя использовать для оценки физических лиц. Классы риска являются диапазонами на опубликованной шкале и никогда не являются рейтингами стран или людей.

Учреждения и источники

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Каждое значение сопровождается указанием его источников, которые сохраняют собственные лицензии. Внешние названия приводятся только для обеспечения совместимости. Тексты, подготовленные Nexus, предполагается публиковать по лицензии CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.