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⁨Foundry⁩

⁨The Global Risks Index⁩

The Global Risks Index · Governance

Stewarded in the open

Three independent stewards, a published review path, a public correction log and a right of reply for every country.

Review and release
صفحه GRX-GOVویراست ویراست پایه 2026پایان گردآوری شواهد 2026-09-30مقادیر هنوز منتشر نشدهروش v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Lifecycle of a value
پیش‌نویسمحاسبه‌شدهمحدود به شواهدبازبینی‌شدهتأییدشده برای انتشارمنتشرشدهاصلاح‌شدهجایگزین‌شده
3
independent stewards
8
lifecycle states
195
rights of reply
1
public correction log

01متولیان

Three independent stewards

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

شواهد و روش‌ها

GCRI Canada

شواهد، روش‌ها، هستان‌شناسی ریسک، انضباط داده، سوابق راستی‌آزمایی‌پذیر و اصلاح.

رهبری و برنامهٔ سالانه

Global Risks Forum

رهبری، گفت‌وگوی نهادی و تولیت Nexus Universe. دروازه‌های برنامه از G0 تا G7 را ثبت می‌کند.

آمادگی مالی

Global Risks Alliance

آمادگی مالی، بیمه و توسعه. شواهد ریسک به مادهٔ بررسی دقیق بدل می‌شوند، هرگز به تأیید یا معامله.

02بازبینی

Review and release

Each edition passes method review, data and licence review, the public-safe screen and steward review; an independent statistical audit reviews each major methodology version.

پیش‌نویسمحاسبه‌شدهمحدود به شواهدبازبینی‌شدهتأییدشده برای انتشارمنتشرشدهاصلاح‌شدهجایگزین‌شده
03Release run

Review gates in the release workflow

The audit and steward gates hold the run until the named reviewers record a disposition.

on: evidence cut

Edition release: review gates

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

گراف
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04شاخص‌ها
05شاخص‌ها
06شاخص‌ها
07شاخص‌ها
08عدم قطعیت
09عدم قطعیت
10بازبینی
11بازبینی
12انتشار

100%
گاه‌شمار
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

گام‌ها
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    سرویس اجرای NXS-GRXدفتر PostgreSQL (امنیت سطح ردیف)
  2. دروازهٔ پروانه

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    فهرست پروانه‌ها
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    سرویس اجرای NXS-GRXاستاندارد نشانگر
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    سرویس اجرای NXS-GRXاستاندارد نشانگر
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    سرویس اجرای NXS-GRXهسته‌های مدل آزموده
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Twenty domain indices
    سرویس اجرای NXS-GRXهسته‌های مدل آزموده
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    شبکهٔ وابستگیهسته‌های مدل آزموده
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    موتور مونت‌کارلو
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    موتور مونت‌کارلو
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    هسته‌های مدل آزموده
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    دفتر PostgreSQL (امنیت سطح ردیف)
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    Vector tilesZenodo deposit
مصنوعات
فراورده کار چه کسی مرحله
Cut record Evidence cut frozen سرویس اجرای NXS-GRX Cut
Withheld counts دروازهٔ پروانه فهرست پروانه‌ها Ingest
HAR series Harmonise سرویس اجرای NXS-GRX Ingest
IND values شاخص‌ها سرویس اجرای NXS-GRX شاخص‌ها
SUB values Sub-indices سرویس اجرای NXS-GRX شاخص‌ها
IDX values شاخص‌های حوزه سرویس اجرای NXS-GRX شاخص‌ها
S per country Coupling score سرویس اجرای NXS-GRX شاخص‌ها
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws موتور مونت‌کارلو عدم قطعیت
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol موتور مونت‌کارلو عدم قطعیت
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer بازبینی
Release decision Steward review متولیان بازبینی
ویراست Profiles and series ⁨Foundry⁩ انتشار
Tiles Tiles and bulk files ⁨Foundry⁩ انتشار
DOI Tiles and bulk files ⁨Foundry⁩ انتشار
انجام شددر حال انجامدر انتظار تأییددر صفدروازهٔ تأییدکار ماتریسشما اینجا هستید
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
04درستکاری

Integrity rules

Declared interests

Conflict-of-interest declarations for every reviewer and contributor of values.

No outside edits

No party, funder or provider can change a value outside the published method and correction process.

حق پاسخ

Country right of reply and a public correction log.

Do no harm

Sensitive outputs (conflict, famine, biosecurity) pass a do-no-harm screen; publication can be delayed or generalised where detail could cause harm.

Replication

Methods, seeds and digests published for replication.

05مرزها

اطلاعات، نه اقتدار

NXS-GRX makes risk visible without making it officially rated; makes disaster risk reduction actionable for learning without issuing commands; makes disaster risk finance questions readable without creating finance or insurance execution; makes intelligence useful without creating public warnings; and makes frontier technology risks structured without certifying anything.

06Benchmark

Benchmark principles, applied voluntarily

The index is not a regulated financial benchmark. It applies the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks (2013) voluntarily, because people use risk indices to make financial decisions.

منطقه Principle How the index meets it وضعیت
حکمرانی 1 · Overall responsibility The three stewards hold responsibility for every stage, from evidence cut to correction; GCRI acts as Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat. In place
حکمرانی 2 · Oversight of third parties Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm’s length and cannot change a value outside the published method. In place
حکمرانی 3 · Conflicts of interest Reviewers and contributors declare interests; funders and providers have no role in determinations. A public register of declarations opens with the first edition. Designed
حکمرانی 4 · Control framework Each edition runs as a workflow with method, data, licence, public-safe and steward gates that hold the run until a named reviewer records a disposition. In place
حکمرانی 5 · Internal oversight Steward review of every edition; an independent statistical audit of each major method version, its auditor to be appointed. Stewards to decide
Quality of the index 6 · Design The method documents what each index measures, its polarity, aggregation and limits, with intervals instead of league tables. In place
Quality of the index 7 · Data sufficiency Coverage thresholds per value, imputation flagged and capped, withheld values counted and stated. In place
Quality of the index 8 · Hierarchy of inputs Registered sources only, each admitted on its own licence; official statistics first, then peer-reviewed and open research products, each labelled. In place
Quality of the index 9 · Transparency of determinations Every value opens to its indicators, sources, method version and correction log. In place
Quality of the index 10 · Periodic review An annual method review with an open consultation; every comment receives a disposition. Designed
Quality of the method 11 · Content of the method The full method is published: construction steps, aggregation, imputation, classes, uncertainty and validation. In place
Quality of the method 12 · Changes to the method Proposal, public consultation of at least 30 days, disposition, semantic version and notice before the change takes effect. Designed
Quality of the method 13 · Transition and cessation A discontinued indicator or series is announced with its replacement, overlap period and back-cast where inputs allow. Designed
Quality of the method 14 · Contributor code of conduct Contributions arrive through structured forms with licence, provenance and declarations; contributors keep their rights. In place
Quality of the method 15 · Controls over data collection Licence gate, provenance on every record, frozen inputs per vintage and build checks that fail on drift. In place
پاسخگویی 16 · Complaints Right of reply and correction requests through a public form, acknowledged, reviewed and published with their effect on any value. In place
پاسخگویی 17 · Audits External audit of the method and its application, scope and auditor to be decided by the stewards. Stewards to decide
پاسخگویی 18 · Audit trail Vintages, provenance, the release workflow record and the correction log are kept for every edition. In place
پاسخگویی 19 · Cooperation with authorities The index is not a regulated benchmark; records are available to competent authorities on request. In place
07سیاست‌ها

Policies a user of the index can rely on

Conflicts

Conflicts of interest

Every reviewer, contributor of values and working-group member declares funding, employment and holdings. A declared conflict excludes that person from the determination it touches.

Complaints

Complaints and right of reply

Anyone can ask for a correction, and a national authority can file a reply, through the form on this page. Each request is acknowledged, reviewed in public and published with its outcome.

Revisions

Revisions and restatements

Values are never revised silently. A correction creates a new vintage, states what changed and why, and keeps the earlier vintage retrievable.

تغییرها

Method changes

A change is proposed, consulted on for at least 30 days, answered, versioned and announced before it takes effect, with a back-cast where inputs allow.

Cessation

Transition and cessation

An indicator or series that has to stop is announced with its replacement and an overlap period, so users can move without a break.

استفاده

Use in decisions and contracts

The index informs judgement; it is not investment advice and not intended as a reference rate in contracts. Users remain responsible for how they use it.

08AI

استفاده از هوش مصنوعی

AI assists drafting, coding and quality checks; every published value is computed by declared kernels from governed inputs, and AI-assisted text is reviewed and disclosed. No value is generated by a language model.

شکل حقوقی

Right of reply and correction request

A national authority, institution or person concerned asks for a correction or files a reply; it is reviewed in public and recorded with its effect on any value.

  1. 01پر کنیدپر کردن فیلدهای دارای نشان (الزامی) لازم است؛ بقیهٔ موارد به بررسی کمک می‌کنند.
  2. 02مرجعیک شمارهٔ مرجع روی صفحه دریافت می‌کنید؛ این سابقه در پایگاه دادهٔ WordPress همین سایت نگه داشته می‌شود.
  3. 03بازبینینتیجه به‌طور عمومی ثبت می‌شود. اطلاعات تماس در همین سایت می‌ماند و هرگز منتشر یا هم‌رسانی نمی‌شود.
Form · grx-reply

این فرم پس از فعال شدن در همین‌جا باز می‌شود. تا آن زمان، آن را از راه درگاه Nexus Reports.

گزارش خطا

Every correction is reviewed in public and logged with its effect on each value.

Send a correction

وضعیت

روش‌شناسی، ساختار و تعاریف The Global Risks Index پیش‌نویس کاری مقدماتی (2026) است که برای بررسی و اظهارنظر منتشر شده و برای اجرا نیست. هیچ مقداری نمایش داده نمی‌شود تا ویراستی از یک برش شواهد تحت حکمرانی منتشر شود؛ آنگاه مقادیر همراه با بازه‌ها، رده‌ها، منابع و مسیر اصلاح خود ارائه می‌شوند. شبیه‌سازها روش‌های منتشرشده را بر روی اعدادی که شما برمی‌گزینید اجرا می‌کنند و هرگز مقداری از NXS-GRX نشان نمی‌دهند.

آنچه ⁨NXS-GRX⁩ نیست

⁨NXS-GRX⁩ اطلاعات پژوهشی و تحلیلی ریسک است. رتبه‌بندی اعتباری یا ⁨ESG⁩ نیست و از هیچ مقیاس رتبه‌بندی استفاده نمی‌کند، شاخص مرجع ابزارهای مالی نیست، آمار رسمی نیست، هشدار اضطراری یا طبقه‌بندی رسمی نیست و توصیه نیست. نباید برای ارزیابی اشخاص حقیقی به کار رود. طبقه‌های ریسک بازه‌هایی روی یک مقیاس منتشرشده‌اند، هرگز رتبه‌بندی کشورها یا افراد نیستند.

نهادها و منابع

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

هر مقدار انتساب منابع خود را در بر دارد و آن منابع پروانه‌های خود را حفظ می‌کنند. نام‌های بیرونی تنها برای میان‌کنش‌پذیری ذکر می‌شوند. متون نگاشتهٔ Nexus برای انتشار با پروانهٔ CC BY 4.0 در نظر گرفته شده‌اند.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.