Country risk profile on The Global Risks Index: hazard and threat exposure, vulnerability, macro-financial fragility, coping capacity and systemic coupling, with intervals, sources and corrections on every value.
What changed, what is live and what is open, each with its source.
The composite risk of Bulgaria, with its 90% interval and class probability, appears when the first edition is released.
Active hazard alerts in Bulgaria come only through NXS-GRX once it admits risksindex.com; pages never call providers directly.
Ameaças CorreçõesNo correction is recorded for this country in the current edition’s log.
Avisos Right of replyInstitutions of Bulgaria can submit evidence or a reply at any time.
SubmitSource observations from the Humanitarian Data Exchange, each with its reference date, provider and licence. They are not index values.
refugees and asylum-seekers in the country. UNHCR – The UN Refugee Agency · Creative Commons Attribution for Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY-IGO).
refugees and asylum-seekers abroad, most in United States of America, Germany, Canada. UNHCR – The UN Refugee Agency · Creative Commons Attribution for Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY-IGO).
received against US$ 30 m required. OCHA Financial Tracking System (FTS) · Creative Commons Attribution for Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY-IGO).
with rainfall against the long-term average, on the unit pages. WFP – World Food Programme · Creative Commons Attribution International (CC BY).
Fourteen areas from macroeconomy to frontier technology, and the planned innovation index. Each card says whether its sources are cleared, shows the mix, and gives two actions: what the area needs, and a scenario you can run now on open data.
Output, prices, external balance and reserves, monetary conditions and labour, with intervals and the change since the last edition.
Debt path fan charts, gross financing needs, debt service and fiscal stress, with the assumptions published.
Banking-system capital and liquidity, credit growth, asset prices and contagion on the dependency network.
Trade openness and concentration, commodity dependence and supply-chain exposure by sector.
Water stress, drought, access and quality, coupled to food, energy and health in the water, energy, food, health and biodiversity nexus.
Supply security, import dependence, grid reliability, transition exposure and access.
Availability, access, prices and nutrition, and the drivers from water, energy, trade and conflict.
Health-system capacity, outbreak preparedness, disease burden and the health effects of other systems.
Ecosystem condition, biodiversity pressure, land and ocean change and nature dependence of the economy.
Chronic and acute physical risk under scenarios, and transition exposure of the economy and the public balance sheet.
Violence and its spillovers, institutional quality, rule of law and state capacity.
Frontier technology risk and capacity side by side: AI, compute, semiconductors, quantum, space, biotech, cyber resilience and digital infrastructure, with the innovation index below.
Preparedness, response and recovery capacity, risk financing and social protection.
Human development, inequality, ageing, urbanisation and displacement.
Research, patents, talent, compute, digital infrastructure and capital for Bulgaria, read beside frontier technology risk. Not in Indicator Standard yet; each indicator needs its source admitted.
Value, change since the previous edition, 90% interval and class probability; the history and the published indicators follow.
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
“Bulgaria: published indicators” is not connected: the Foundry connection it needs is switched off on this network.
The composite is shown only with its four pillars and twenty domain indices beside it; each value carries a 90% interval and a class with its probability.
| Instrumento | Valor | Variação | Variação % | Intervalo de 90% | Classe · probabilidade | Tendência | Faixa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NXS-GRX Risco compostoNXS-GRX-BGR · CRI | – | – | – | – | – | ||
NXS-GRX Risco acopladoNXS-GRX-BGR · CPL | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Exposição a ameaças e perigosNXS-GRX-BGR · HTE | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Vulnerabilidade humana e dos sistemasNXS-GRX-BGR · VUL | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Fragilidade macrofinanceira e estruturalNXS-GRX-BGR · MSF | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Falta de capacidade de enfrentamento e de adaptaçãoNXS-GRX-BGR · LCC | – | – | – | – | – |
The national dense nexus core of Bulgaria: shared stressors, cross-system dependencies and the couplings that turn one failure into several.
Reading and couplings published with the edition.
Índice EnergiaReading and couplings published with the edition.
Índice AlimentosReading and couplings published with the edition.
Índice SaúdeReading and couplings published with the edition.
Índice BiodiversidadeReading and couplings published with the edition.
ÍndicePulse signals and outlook probabilities are information for review, never warnings; official warnings for Bulgaria come only from its mandated authorities.
O que mudou desde o último corte estrutural? ●OBSERVADO▲INFERIDO.
Método Mensal, horizontes de 1, 3, 12 e 36 mesesQual a probabilidade de resultados adversos definidos em um horizonte declarado? ◇PREVISÃO.
Método Cada edição anualComo o risco se comporta em futuros alternativos até 2030, 2050 e 2100? ○CENÁRIO◈SIMULADO.
Método Cada edição anual, atualizada por eventosComo é o extremo raro e severo da distribuição? ◈SIMULADO◆MODELADO.
Método Cada edição anual, atualização trimestral da redePor onde o risco se propaga entre sistemas e fronteiras? ◆ESTIMADO◈SIMULADO.
Método Rodadas anuais de pesquisa com especialistas e o públicoOnde o risco percebido difere do risco medido? ◎CONTRIBUIÇÃO DE ESPECIALISTAS□REPORTADO.
MétodoA peer group is a reading context, not a ranking; profiles are listed by name.
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
A country profile reads public evidence about a place. It is not a statement by or about the policy of any government, takes no position on the status of any territory, and does not imply a national programme or participation. Names follow UN M49.
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Pulse signals and outlook probabilities are information for review by competent authorities, never public warnings; official warnings come only from mandated authorities.
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.
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