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Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ENE · VUL Human and systems vulnerability

能源安全风险指数

Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-ENEEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

geometric

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

不确定性

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

结构

5 components

20 leaf indicators

覆盖范围

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 25%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Shows where an energy shock, from a supplier, a chokepoint, a grid failure or a mineral export control, would hit hardest; each sub-index stays visible beside the total.

computation
How Energy security risk is computed
Graph28 nodes
流程图
01指标
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04支柱
05综合
100%
索引
  1. 用电人口
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population living in households with an electricity supply that can power at least basic lighting, whether from the grid, a mini-grid or a stand-alone system.
  2. 主要依靠清洁烹饪燃料和技术的人口
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population whose household cooks mainly with clean fuels and stoves (electricity, gas, biogas, ethanol, solar) rather than solid fuels or kerosene.
  3. 能源净进口依赖度
    Indicator · IND · %
    Energy imports minus exports as a share of total energy supply, all fuels in energy units; negative values denote net exporters.
  4. 燃料进口支出，占货物和服务出口比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Value of imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of total exports of goods and services in the same year.
  5. 原油及成品油进口供应方集中度
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import shares by country of origin for crude oil and refined oil products combined, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale; weighted by import dependence when used in composites.
  6. 天然气进口供应方集中度
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of natural gas import shares by origin, counting pipeline gas and LNG cargoes together, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. 煤炭进口供应方集中度
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of coal import shares (steam and metallurgical) by origin, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. 石油储备可满足净进口天数
    Indicator · IND · d
    Emergency and commercial oil stocks held on national territory (or under bilateral agreement) divided by average daily net oil imports of the previous year, in days, following the IEA stockholding convention.
  9. 发电结构集中度
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of annual electricity generation shares across sources (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, bioenergy, other), on a 0–1 scale.
  10. 化石能源发电占比
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of gross electricity generation produced from coal, oil and natural gas.
  11. GDP 一次能源强度
    Indicator · IND · MJ/USD
    Total energy supply divided by GDP at ICP 2021 purchasing-power parities, in megajoules per international dollar.
  12. 可再生能源在最终能源消费总量中的占比
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of final energy consumption met from renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern and traditional bioenergy, ocean), with traditional biomass reported as a separate disaggregation.
  13. 人均可再生能源装机容量
    Indicator · IND · W/person
    Installed renewable electricity-generating capacity at year end divided by mid-year population, in watts per person.
  14. 企业在典型月份遭遇的停电次数
    Indicator · IND · /mo
    Average number of electrical outages that formal private firms report in a typical month, from establishment surveys.
  15. 停电造成的损失，占企业销售额比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Losses that firms attribute to power outages as a percentage of annual sales, from establishment surveys.
  16. 系统平均停电持续时间（SAIDI）
    Indicator · IND · h/a
    Total minutes of sustained supply interruption per customer served in the year, expressed in hours, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
  17. 系统平均停电频率（SAIFI）
    Indicator · IND · /a
    Number of sustained supply interruptions per customer served in the year, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
  18. 输配电损耗
    Indicator · IND · %
    Electricity lost between generation and the consumer, technical and commercial, as a share of electricity output.
  19. 关键矿产进口供应方集中度
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
  20. 关键矿产进口中最大单一供应方占比
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
  21. Energy access deficit sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).
  22. Fuel import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%
    Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.
  23. Energy mix rigidity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.
  24. Electricity supply unreliability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
  25. Critical-mineral dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%
    Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
  26. 能源安全风险指数
    Domain index · IDX · geometric
    Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  27. 人类与系统脆弱性
    Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indices
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  28. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
未运行进行中已完成
FIG 2. 20 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate energy security risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
在您的浏览器中运行
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03方法

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
INFORM 0–10 rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
25% of weight
Weighting
专家
Aggregation
geometric
Scale
0 to 10
不确定性
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; IEA energy security concept; INFORM risk algebra (geometric aggregation)
很低0.0 至 < 2.0
低2.0 至 < 3.5
中3.5 至 < 5.0
高5.0 至 < 6.5
很高6.5 至 10.0
04Components

5 components, 20 indicators

Energy access deficit sub-index w 1

Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).

指标单位证据来源占比
用电人口IND.ENE.access.electricity_access%Class Bwb-wdi, iea-sdg7-tracking, national-household-surveys66.7%
主要依靠清洁烹饪燃料和技术的人口IND.ENE.access.clean_cooking%Class Cwho-household-energy-database, wb-wdi33.3%

Fuel import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.

指标单位证据来源占比
能源净进口依赖度IND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports%Class Biea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-wdi30.8%
燃料进口支出，占货物和服务出口比重IND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports%Class Aun-comtrade, imf-bop, wb-wdi15.4%
原油及成品油进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-oil-information, jodi-oil15.4%
天然气进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-natural-gas-information, jodi-gas, giignl-lng-report15.4%
煤炭进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-coal-information7.7%
石油储备可满足净进口天数IND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocksdClass Biea-oil-stocks-of-member-countries, eurostat-emergency-oil-stocks, jodi-oil15.4%

Energy mix rigidity sub-index w 1

Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.

指标单位证据来源占比
发电结构集中度IND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration1Class Biea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, un-energy-statistics-database22.2%
化石能源发电占比IND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share%Class Biea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, wb-wdi22.2%
GDP 一次能源强度IND.ENE.mix.energy_intensityMJ/[USD]Class Biea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-icp22.2%
可再生能源在最终能源消费总量中的占比IND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec%Class Biea-world-energy-balances, irena-renewable-energy-statistics, un-energy-statistics-database22.2%
人均可再生能源装机容量IND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pcW/{person}Class Birena-renewable-capacity-statistics11.1%

Electricity supply unreliability sub-index w 1

Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.

指标单位证据来源占比
企业在典型月份遭遇的停电次数IND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages/moClass Bwb-enterprise-surveys, wb-b-ready22.2%
停电造成的损失，占企业销售额比重IND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss%Class Bwb-enterprise-surveys22.2%
系统平均停电持续时间（SAIDI）IND.ENE.reliability.saidih/aClass Bwb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-86122.2%
系统平均停电频率（SAIFI）IND.ENE.reliability.saifi/aClass Bwb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-86122.2%
输配电损耗IND.ENE.reliability.td_losses%Class Biea-electricity-information, national-energy-regulators, wb-wdi11.1%

Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 0.5

Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.

指标单位证据来源占比
关键矿产进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration1Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries50.0%
关键矿产进口中最大单一供应方占比IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share%Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer50.0%
05领域

能源

Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition.

Sub-domain指标
访问3
Supply security and import dependence6
Energy mix6
Reliability6
Critical minerals2

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IEA energy security; SDG 7; IRENA.

06指标

All 23 energy indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ENE · 23
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
指标领域Sub-domain组件单位级别Crosswalks
用电人口IND.ENE.access.electricity_accessENE访问vulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
主要依靠清洁烹饪燃料和技术的人口IND.ENE.access.clean_cookingENE访问vulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
人均用电量IND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pcENE访问contextkW.h/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
可再生能源在最终能源消费总量中的占比IND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfecENEEnergy mixadaptive capacity%COUNTRYSDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
GDP 一次能源强度IND.ENE.mix.energy_intensityENEEnergy mixvulnerabilityMJ/[USD]COUNTRYSDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
发电结构集中度IND.ENE.mix.generation_concentrationENEEnergy mixvulnerability1COUNTRY
化石能源发电占比IND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_shareENEEnergy mixvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
人均可再生能源装机容量IND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pcENEEnergy mixadaptive capacityW/{person}COUNTRYSDG 7.b.1
依赖水的发电占比IND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.shareENEEnergy mixvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1
能源净进口依赖度IND.ENE.security.net_energy_importsENESupply security and import dependenceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
燃料进口支出，占货物和服务出口比重IND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exportsENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
原油及成品油进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
天然气进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
煤炭进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
石油储备可满足净进口天数IND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocksENESupply security and import dependencecoping capacitydCOUNTRY
企业在典型月份遭遇的停电次数IND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outagesENEReliabilityvulnerability/moCOUNTRYWB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
停电造成的损失，占企业销售额比重IND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_lossENEReliabilityimpact%COUNTRYWB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
系统平均停电持续时间（SAIDI）IND.ENE.reliability.saidiENEReliabilityvulnerabilityh/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
系统平均停电频率（SAIFI）IND.ENE.reliability.saifiENEReliabilityvulnerability/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
输配电损耗IND.ENE.reliability.td_lossesENEReliabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
采暖和制冷度日数IND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_daysENEReliabilityhazardK.d/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
关键矿产进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentrationENECritical mineralsvulnerability1COUNTRY
关键矿产进口中最大单一供应方占比IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_shareENECritical mineralsvulnerability%COUNTRY
07引用

Energy security risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ENE · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Energy security risk index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
上一版
–
Range since 2016
–
耦合综合
–
耦合得分 S
–
脉搏，最近一周
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
方法
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
抽样次数
1,000
Energy security risk index, world, by edition

尚无已发布的数值。第一版发布后将在这里绘制历史，并附区间带和类别边界。

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
非洲54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
美洲35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
亚洲48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
欧洲44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
大洋洲14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
暂无变动。 自第二版起，与上一版相比的变化将在此列出，并附上驱动这些变化的指标。
08数值

Country values

FIG 5 · Energy security risk index: countries (values when released)
正在加载地图
安道尔安提瓜和巴布达巴林巴巴多斯科摩罗佛得角多米尼克密克罗尼西亚（联邦）格林纳达基里巴斯圣基茨和尼维斯圣卢西亚列支敦士登摩纳哥马尔代夫马绍尔群岛马耳他毛里求斯瑙鲁帕劳新加坡圣马力诺圣多美和普林西比塞舌尔汤加图瓦卢教廷圣文森特和格林纳丁斯萨摩亚
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
瓦片
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/ene/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
观测键
nis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09系列

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-02Global EnergySupply adequacy, import dependency, grid reliability, affordability, extreme-weather exposure, critical minerals and transition pathways. SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction. SR-07Food, water and energyThe food–water–energy nexus: shared stressors, trade-offs and joint failures. XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps. TH-01Nexus InterdependencyThe water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems read together: drought to energy stress, energy disruption to health stress, biodiversity loss to food-system stress, flood to water contamination, heat to health and grid stress, cyber-physical disruption across all five.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI10
SDG5
ISO_371202
11贯穿 Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12引用

引用与再利用

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Energy security risk index (GRX-IDX-ENE), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/energy-security-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000119.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

状态

The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。

NXS-GRX 不是什么

NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。

机构与来源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.