The Global Risks Index · XT-01 · Exponential technology series
人工智能与智能体系统
AI 和智能体系统既是物理基础设施（算力、能源、水、材料和供应链），也是危害来源：故障、滥用、集中和监督缺口。
Page GRX-SER-XT-01Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports XT-01 (drafted)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
领域指数
5
Water security risk · Governance weakness · Energy security risk · Cyber risk.
指标
100
5 index domains
Hazard families
22
Frontier and exponential technology · Information and cyber-physical systems.
方法
56
网络、人工智能与前沿技术
5
领域指数
100
indicators in scope
2
危害领域
5
client groups
01范围
Scope and questions
The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.
- Where does AI adoption outrun oversight capacity?
- What physical footprint and dependency does AI create?
- Which AI failure modes could cascade into essential services?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems index is built
Graph9 nodes
流程图
01领域指数
02Series index
03Readings
100%
索引
-
水安全风险Domain index · IDX · WAT0–10 index of water security risk combining scarcity and stress, WASH access, water quality and transboundary dependence; geometric so that good access does not offset severe scarcity.
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治理薄弱Domain index · IDX · GOVWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
-
能源安全风险Domain index · IDX · ENEIndex of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
-
网络风险Domain index · IDX · CYBIndex of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
-
技术集中风险Domain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
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Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-01AI 和智能体系统既是物理基础设施（算力、能源、水、材料和供应链），也是危害来源：故障、滥用、集中和监督缺口。
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Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未运行进行中已完成
03指数
Domain indices in this series
The Global Risks Index · XT-01 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
| 指数 | 数值 | 变化 | 变化 % | 90% 区间 | 类别 · 概率 | 趋势 | 范围 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
水安全风险NXS-GRX · WAT |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
治理薄弱NXS-GRX · GOV |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
能源安全风险NXS-GRX · ENE |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
网络风险NXS-GRX · CYB |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
技术集中风险NXS-GRX · TEC |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Energy, Water, Governance and institutions.
04指标
100 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| 指标 | 领域 | Sub-domain | 组件 | 单位 | 级别 | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIC-DSF 综合指标得分（已发布，参考）IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator |
FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
燃料进口，占商品进口比重IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
关键矿产净进口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
温室气体排放总量（不含 LULUCF）IND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
GDP 碳强度IND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
显性化石燃料补贴，占 GDP 比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
适应投资的经济准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
适应的治理准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
严重气象干旱频率IND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency |
HAZ | 干旱 | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR |
水资源压力水平IND.WAT.stress.water_stress |
WAT | 水资源压力 | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS |
基线水资源压力得分（子流域）IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stress |
WAT | 水资源压力 | hazard | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO | |
人均可再生淡水资源总量IND.WAT.stress.renewable_water.pc |
WAT | 水资源压力 | hazard | m3/a/{person} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.INTR.PC |
地下水储量下降IND.WAT.stress.groundwater_depletion |
WAT | 水资源压力 | hazard | mm/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
用水效率IND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency |
WAT | 水资源压力 | adaptive capacity | [USD]/m3 |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD |
使用安全管理饮用水的人口IND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD |
至少使用基本饮用水的人口IND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS |
使用安全管理卫生设施的人口IND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD |
拥有基本洗手设施的人口IND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1 |
环境水质良好的水体IND.WAT.quality.good_ambient_water_quality.share |
WAT | Water quality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 6.3.2 |
经安全处理的废水IND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share |
WAT | Water quality | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT |
对外部可再生水的依赖率IND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
有运作中合作安排的跨界流域面积IND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.5.2 |
位于高地电危害区的高压电网占比IND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share |
SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
报告的霍乱病例，每 100,000 人IND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k |
HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001 |
农业取水量，占总取水量比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS |
国家议会中女性所占席位IND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament |
SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
话语权和问责（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
政治稳定和无暴力（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.political_stability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
政府效能（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
腐败控制（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
清廉指数（透明国际）IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
新闻自由得分（RSF）IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
法治（WGI）IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
产权和基于规则的治理（CPIA）IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
未判决被拘留者，占在押人口比重IND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
企业行贿发生率IND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
监管质量（WGI）IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
CPIA 总体评级（IDA 资源分配指数）IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
CPIA 公共部门管理和机构IND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
CPIA 公共部门透明度、问责和腐败IND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
收入动员效率（CPIA）IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
预算执行与核定预算的偏差IND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
统计绩效指标总得分IND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
出生登记完整性IND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
距上次人口普查的年数IND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census |
GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
营商环境得分（B-READY）IND.GOV.business.bready_overall |
GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
用电人口IND.ENE.access.electricity_access |
ENE | 访问 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS |
主要依靠清洁烹饪燃料和技术的人口IND.ENE.access.clean_cooking |
ENE | 访问 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
人均用电量IND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc |
ENE | 访问 | context | kW.h/a/{person} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC |
可再生能源在最终能源消费总量中的占比IND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec |
ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS |
GDP 一次能源强度IND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | MJ/[USD] |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD |
发电结构集中度IND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
化石能源发电占比IND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS |
人均可再生能源装机容量IND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc |
ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | W/{person} |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.b.1 |
依赖水的发电占比IND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
能源净进口依赖度IND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS |
燃料进口支出，占货物和服务出口比重IND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
原油及成品油进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
天然气进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
煤炭进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
石油储备可满足净进口天数IND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | coping capacity | d |
COUNTRY | |
企业在典型月份遭遇的停电次数IND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /mo |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG |
停电造成的损失，占企业销售额比重IND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss |
ENE | Reliability | impact | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS |
系统平均停电持续时间（SAIDI）IND.ENE.reliability.saidi |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | h/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
系统平均停电频率（SAIFI）IND.ENE.reliability.saifi |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
输配电损耗IND.ENE.reliability.td_losses |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS |
采暖和制冷度日数IND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days |
ENE | Reliability | hazard | K.d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
关键矿产进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
关键矿产进口中最大单一供应方占比IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
互联网使用者IND.INF.digital.internet_users |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
国际连接路由冗余度IND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
全国范围互联网中断小时数IND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours |
INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a |
COUNTRY | |
电网韧性IND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
供水网络韧性IND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
位于高危害区的供水资产占比IND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
位于高危害区的发电和电网资产占比IND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours |
INF | Urban systems | vulnerability | h/a |
CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
ITU 全球网络安全指数得分IND.CYB.capability.gci_score |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Overall score |
ITU 全球网络安全指数等级IND.CYB.capability.gci_tier |
CYB | Cyber capability | vulnerability | {class} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Tier |
ITU GCI 法律措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_legal |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
ITU GCI 技术措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_technical |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
ITU GCI 组织措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
ITU GCI 能力建设措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development |
CYB | Cyber capability | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures |
ITU GCI 合作措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures |
国家计算机事件响应团队已运作IND.CYB.capability.national_cert |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
数据保护和隐私立法已生效IND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
每百万人重大网络事件数IND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate |
CYB | Incidents | hazard | /10*6/a |
COUNTRY | |
扰乱关键服务的网络事件IND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents |
CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
ICT 服务增加值，占 GDP 比重IND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
电子政务发展IND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
研发总支出，占 GDP 比重IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
每百万居民研究人员数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
高技术出口，占制成品出口比重IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
半导体进口供应方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
云基础设施提供方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
受外国或单一提供方控制的 AI 算力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control |
TEC | 人工智能 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
基础模型提供方集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration |
TEC | 人工智能 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
高等级防护实验室的生物安全和生物安保监督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight |
TEC | 生物技术 | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
与《仙台框架》一致的国家减少灾害风险战略IND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
拥有与国家战略一致的减少灾害风险战略的地方政府IND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
05危害
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| 类别 | 领域 | 危害 | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI system failure and misalignment | 前沿与指数型技术 | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | 前沿与指数型技术 | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | 前沿与指数型技术 | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | 前沿与指数型技术 | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | 前沿与指数型技术 | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | 前沿与指数型技术 | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| 生物技术与合成生物学 | 前沿与指数型技术 | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | 前沿与指数型技术 | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | 前沿与指数型技术 | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | 前沿与指数型技术 | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| 气候干预技术 | 前沿与指数型技术 | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | 前沿与指数型技术 | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | 前沿与指数型技术 | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | 前沿与指数型技术 | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | 前沿与指数型技术 | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | 前沿与指数型技术 | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
| Malicious compromise | 信息与网络物理系统 | Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … | 9 |
| Information-integrity attacks | 信息与网络物理系统 | Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure | 6 |
| Cyber-physical disruption | 信息与网络物理系统 | Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … | 11 |
| Signal and platform disruption | 信息与网络物理系统 | Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure | 7 |
| Identity, trust and cryptographic failure | 信息与网络物理系统 | Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure | 6 |
| Systemic cyber events | 信息与网络物理系统 | Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … | 9 |
06方法
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
56 methods
网络、人工智能与前沿技术
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
07Users
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Companies and supply chains
Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.
Regulators, supervisors and central banks
Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.
Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools
Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.
Universities and research
Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.
08报告
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
XT-01- Edition status
- drafted, in stewardship review
- 主题
- Named by Nexus Reports
09引用
引用与再利用
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems series (GRX-SER-XT-01), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-01/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000088.
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-01:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.WAT.stress.water_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.